PROMEDIO MOVIL (MA)

alfa MAPE SSE(SExp)

0.3695 10.14 37529.46

SUMA 37506.68
Estimación Pronóstico Error Error Abs Error Cuadrado
suavizada Pronostico Porcentual Pronostico
t Y MA(5) Ye ep abs(e/Y) ep^2
1 206
2 245
3 185 193.40
4 169 187.60
5 162 180.00
6 177 186.20 193.40 -16.40 9.3 268.96
7 207 191.00 187.60 19.40 9.4 376.36
8 216 204.60 180.00 36.00 16.7 1296.00
9 193 211.60 186.20 6.80 3.5 46.24
10 230 208.60 191.00 39.00 17.0 1521.00
11 212 197.80 204.60 7.40 3.5 54.76
12 192 197.00 211.60 -19.60 10.2 384.16
13 162 199.80 208.60 -46.60 28.8 2171.56
14 189 199.20 197.80 -8.80 4.7 77.44
15 244 202.20 197.00 47.00 19.3 2209.00
16 209 212.00 199.80 9.20 4.4 84.64
17 207 216.20 199.20 7.80 3.8 60.84
18 211 202.00 202.20 8.80 4.2 77.44
19 210 199.00 212.00 -2.00 1.0 4.00
20 173 204.40 216.20 -43.20 25.0 1866.24
21 194 193.40 202.00 -8.00 4.1 64.00
22 234 192.60 199.00 35.00 15.0 1225.00
23 156 195.60 204.40 -48.40 31.0 2342.56
24 206 189.20 193.40 12.60 6.1 158.76
25 188 176.80 192.60 -4.60 2.4 21.16
26 162 187.60 195.60 -33.60 20.7 1128.96
27 172 187.40 189.20 -17.20 10.0 295.84
28 210 198.60 176.80 33.20 15.8 1102.24
29 205 209.80 187.60 17.40 8.5 302.76
30 244 211.80 187.40 56.60 23.2 3203.56
31 218 211.00 198.60 19.40 8.9 376.36
32 182 212.20 209.80 -27.80 15.3 772.84
33 206 218.00 211.80 -5.80 2.8 33.64
34 211 224.00 211.00 0.00 0.0 0.00
35 273 240.00 212.20 60.80 22.3 3696.64
36 248 250.40 218.00 30.00 12.1 900.00
37 262 254.80 224.00 38.00 14.5 1444.00
38 258 251.20 240.00 18.00 7.0 324.00
39 233 262.20 250.40 -17.40 7.5 302.76
40 255 266.20 254.80 0.20 0.1 0.04
41 303 272.80 251.20 51.80 17.1 2683.24
42 282 282.20 262.20 19.80 7.0 392.04
43 291 282.20 266.20 24.80 8.5 615.04
44 280 284.00 272.80 7.20 2.6 51.84
45 255 286.80 282.20 -27.20 10.7 739.84
46 312 290.00 282.20 29.80 9.6 888.04
47 296 290.20 284.00 12.00 4.1 144.00
48 307 300.80 286.80 20.20 6.6 408.04
49 281 294.40 290.00 -9.00 3.2 81.00
50 308 304.20 290.20 17.80 5.8 316.84
51 280 304.80 300.80 -20.80 7.4 432.64
52 345 294.40 50.60 14.7 2560.36
53 310 304.20 5.80 1.9 33.64
T=(2/alfa)-1 SSE(MA)
5 37506.68

350

300

250

200
Y
150 MA(5
)

100

50

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE CALCULO DE CONSTANTE ALFA OPTIMO

alfa SSE
0.3695 37529.46

Estimación Error Error Cuadrado

suavizada Pronóstico
t Y Ye(t) e e2
0 197
1 206 197.00 9.00 81.00
2 245 200.33 44.67 1995.77
3 185 216.84 -31.84 1013.48
4 169 205.07 -36.07 1301.08
5 162 191.74 -29.74 884.51
6 177 180.75 -3.75 14.06
7 207 179.36 27.64 763.73
8 216 189.58 26.42 698.18
9 193 199.34 -6.34 40.22
10 230 197.00 33.00 1089.13
11 212 209.19 2.81 7.87
12 192 210.23 -18.23 332.36
13 162 203.49 -41.49 1721.73
14 189 188.16 0.84 0.71
15 244 188.47 55.53 3083.55
16 209 208.99 0.01 0.00
17 207 208.99 -1.99 3.98
18 211 208.26 2.74 7.52
19 210 209.27 0.73 0.53
20 173 209.54 -36.54 1335.20
21 194 196.04 -2.04 4.15
22 234 195.28 38.72 1498.91
23 156 209.59 -53.59 2872.05
24 206 189.79 16.21 262.86
25 188 195.78 -7.78 60.50
26 162 192.90 -30.90 955.05
27 172 181.48 -9.48 89.94
28 210 177.98 32.02 1025.35
29 205 189.81 15.19 230.67
30 244 195.42 48.58 2359.55
31 218 213.38 4.62 21.38
32 182 215.08 -33.08 1094.59
33 206 202.86 3.14 9.87
34 211 204.02 6.98 48.73
35 273 206.60 66.40 4409.09
36 248 231.14 16.86 284.35
37 262 237.37 24.63 606.69
38 258 246.47 11.53 132.91
39 233 250.73 -17.73 314.41
40 255 244.18 10.82 117.09
41 303 248.18 54.82 3005.47
42 282 268.44 13.56 183.95
43 291 273.45 17.55 308.03
44 280 279.94 0.06 0.00
45 255 279.96 -24.96 622.96
46 312 270.74 41.26 1702.76
47 296 285.98 10.02 100.31
48 307 289.69 17.31 299.78
49 281 296.08 -15.08 227.53
50 308 290.51 17.49 305.90
51 280 296.97 -16.97 288.09
52 345 290.70 54.30 2948.40
310
MEDIANTE SOLVER

350

300

250

200
Y
150 Y
e

100

50

0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
 Y
Y
e

52
 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE CALCULO DE CONSTANTE ALFA OPTIMO

alfa SSE
0.0233 27865.78

Estimación Error Error Cuadrado BUSQUEDA ALFA OPTIMO

suavizada Pronóstico
t Y Ye(t) e e2 alfa SSE(alfa)
0 359.67 0.0000 27999.67
1 362.00 359.67 2.33 5.43 0.0100 27906.55
2 381.00 359.72 21.28 452.65 0.0233 27865.78
3 317.00 360.22 -43.22 1868.04 0.1000 28676.04
4 297.00 359.21 -62.21 3870.37 0.2000 30752.76
5 399.00 357.76 41.24 1700.68 0.3000 33143.83
6 402.00 358.72 43.28 1872.90 0.4000 35679.99
7 375.00 359.73 15.27 233.09 0.5000 38360.89
8 349.00 360.09 -11.09 122.97 0.6000 41225.67
9 386.00 359.83 26.17 684.86 0.7000 44328.56
10 328.00 360.44 -32.44 1052.41 0.8000 47740.47
11 389.00 359.68 29.32 859.43 0.9000 51557.58
12 343.00 360.37 -17.37 301.65
13 276.00 359.96 -83.96 7049.73
14 334.00 358.00 -24.00 576.17
15 394.00 357.44 36.56 1336.38
16 334.00 358.30 -24.30 590.32
17 384.00 357.73 26.27 690.14
18 314.00 358.34 -44.34 1966.26
19 344.00 357.31 -13.31 177.10
20 337.00 357.00 -20.00 399.90
21 345.00 356.53 -11.53 132.96
22 362.00 356.26 5.74 32.93
23 314.00 356.40 -42.40 1797.39
24 365.00 355.41 9.59 92.04
 MEDIANTE SOLVER

450.00

ALFA OPTIMO
400.00

350.00
Y
Y
e
300.00

250.00

200.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

SSE(alfa)
60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
0.0000 0.0500 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 0.2500 0.3000 0.3500 0.4000 0.4500 0.5000 0.5500 0.6000 0.6500 0.7000 0.7500 0.8000
 Y
Y
e

20 21 22 23 24 25

00 0.6000 0.6500 0.7000 0.7500 0.8000

 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

alfa = 0.10 alfa=

Estimación Error Error Error Abs Error Estimación
suavizada Pronóstico Absoluto Porcentual Cuadrado suavizada
t Y F(0.10) e(0.1) abs(e(.1)) abs(e/Y) e(0.1)2 F(0.90)
1 200.0
2 135.0 200.0 -65.0 65.0 48.1 4225.0 200.0
3 195.0 193.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 2.3 141.5
4 197.5 193.7 3.9 3.9 1.9 14.8 189.7
5 310.0 194.0 116.0 116.0 37.4 13447.9 196.7
6 175.0 205.6 -30.6 30.6 17.5 938.3 298.7
7 155.0 202.6 -47.6 47.6 30.7 2262.7 187.4
8 130.0 197.8 -67.8 67.8 52.2 4598.4 158.2
9 220.0 191.0 29.0 29.0 13.2 839.2 132.8
10 277.5 193.9 83.6 83.6 30.1 6984.4 211.3
11 235.0 202.3 32.7 32.7 13.9 1070.3 270.9
12 205.6 238.6
TABLA DE ERRORES
SE 55.56
EM 5.56
MAE 47.76
MAPE 24.58
SSE 34383.32
MSE 3438.33
SDE 58.64

ALFA SUAVIZACION

0.10 FUERTE RECOGE TENDENCIA

0.90 SUAVE RECOGE LA SERIE
 CALCULO DE CONSTANTE ALFA OPTIMO
350.0
0.90
Error Error Error Abs Error
300.0
Pronóstico Absoluto Porcentual Cuadrado
e(0.9) abs(e(.9)) abs(e/Y) e(.9)2 250.0

-65.0 65.0 48.1 4225.0 200.0

53.5 53.5 27.4 2862.3
7.9 7.9 4.0 61.6 150.0
113.3 113.3 36.5 12833.5
-123.7 123.7 70.7 15294.6 100.0
-32.4 32.4 20.9 1047.6
-28.2 28.2 21.7 797.3 50.0
87.2 87.2 39.6 7599.7
66.2 66.2 23.9 4384.8 0.0
-35.9 35.9 15.3 1287.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

42.88
4.29
61.32
30.81
50393.68
5039.37
70.99
 Y
F(0.1
)
F(0.9
)

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE MEDIANTE SOLVER

SSE 26848.15
alfa 0.130
Estimación Error Error Error Abs Error
suavizada Pronóstico Absoluto Porcentual Cuadrado
t Y F(alfa) e abs(e) abs(e/Y) e2
1 200.0
2 135.0 200.0 -65.0 65.0 48.1 4225.0
3 195.0 191.6 3.4 3.4 1.8 11.7
4 197.5 192.0 5.5 5.5 2.8 30.0
5 310.0 192.7 117.3 117.3 37.8 13752.1
6 175.0 207.9 -32.9 32.9 18.8 1084.2
7 180.0 203.7 -23.7 23.7 13.1 559.8
8 230.0 200.6 29.4 29.4 12.8 864.7
9 220.0 204.4 15.6 15.6 7.1 243.2
10 260.0 206.4 53.6 53.6 20.6 2870.2
11 270.0 213.4 56.6 56.6 21.0 3207.1
12 220.7
TABLA DE ERRORES
SE 159.79
EM 15.98
MAE 40.30
MAPE 18.39
SSE 26848.15
MSE 2684.82
SDE 51.82
350.0

300.0

250.0

200.0
Colu
mn B
150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Colu
mn B

11 12