Tabla 1 Proceso de decision para la comercializacion

Estados de la naturaleza

Decision alternativa Demanda baja utilidad Demanda baja promedio Demanda Alta utilidad
Fabricacion 221 251 310
Subcontracto 210 225 278
Comprar 195 236 289
Probabilidades Ʃ = 1 0.35 0.42 0.23

PREGUNTAS

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) conditi

P(F/low) = 0,3 P(D/low) = 0,7

P(F/low average) = 0,38 P(D/ low average) = 0,62

P(F/high medium) = 0,4 P(D/ high medium) = 0,6

P(F/high) = 0,55 P(D/high) = 0,45

Paso 1 , arbol de decision PROBABILIDAD DEMANDA

Demand low utility 0.35 77.35
ManofactureNODO 2 Demand low average
ut utilit 0.42 105.42
Demand hight utility 0.23 71.3

Demand low utility 35 73.5

NODO 1 Subcontract NODO 3 Demand low average utilit 0.42 94.5
Demand hight utility 0.23 63.94

Demand low utility 0.35 68.25

NODO 4 Demand low average utilit 0.42 99.12
Buy Demand hight utility 0.23 66.47

The EV is Manufacture for a payment

 NODO2 EVPI 254.07

EVPI=EVwPI- EVwoPI EVwPI: CON 254.07

Expected value of perfect information EVwoPI: SIN 226.69
27.38

P(F/low)0,3 P(D/low)=0,7 Favorabilidad

P(F/low average)= 0,38 P(D/low average)=0,62
P(F/high medium)=0,4 P(D/high medium)=0,6
P(F/high)=0,55 P(D/high)=0,45 Estado de la naturaleza Probabilidad previas
P(F/low) 0.35
P(F/low) Average) 0.42
P(F/high medium)
P(F/high) 0.23

Desfavorabilidad

Estado de la naturaleza Probabilidad previas

P(F/low) 0.35
P(F/low) Average) 0.42
P(F/high medium)
P(F/high) 0.23

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

VEIM 0 NODO 2 254.07

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

E 0

Problem 2. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

ElectroCom, a company that manufactures electronic components for the

introduction in its product catalog, must decide whether to manufacture a new
product in its main plant, subcontract it with company supervision or if it buys it from
an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the product. The table
shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

Table 2. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of nature

Decision alternative
 Demand Demand
Decision alternative Demand low High
Demand High - utility
low-utility average - Medium -
utility utility
Manufacture 173 183 195 218
Subcontract 181 192 207 213
Buy 183 197 207 215
Lease 125 128 131 137
Outsource 188 192 198 209
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0.19 0.21 0.28 0.32

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EV

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand.

PROBABILIDADES DEMANDA PROB-DEMN

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.19 173 32.87

MANUFACTUNODO 2 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.21 183 38.43
Demand High Medium - u 0.28 195 54.6
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.32 218 69.76

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.19 181 34.39

SUBCONTRANODO 3 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.21 192 40.32
Demand High Medium - u 0.28 207 57.96
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.32 213 68.16

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.19 183 34.77

NODO 1 BUY NODO 4 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.21 197 41.37
Demand High Medium - u 0.28 207 57.96
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.32 215 68.8

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.19 125 23.75

LEASE NODO 5 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.21 128 26.88
Demand High Medium - u 0.28 131 36.68
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.32 137 43.84

DEMAND LOW UTILITY

OUTSOURCENODO 6 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE
Demand High Medium - u
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY

NODO 2 204.81 The EV is manufacture for a payment 204,81

EVPI= EVwPI -EVwoPI EVwPI EVwoPI
Expected Value of Perfect 204.81 131.15 73.66
EVwPI: CON
Favorabilidad

Estado de la naturaleza Probabilidad previas

P(F/low) 0.19
P(F/low) Average) 0.21
P(F/high medium) 0.28
P(F/high) 0.32

Desfavorabilidad

Estado de la naturaleza Probabilidad previas

P(F/low) 0.19
P(F/low) Average) 0.21
P(F/high medium) 0.28
P(F/high) 0.32

NODO 2 204.81 SIN INFORMACION

NODO 2 202.9 CON INFORMACION

b. What is the expected value of market research information?

VEIM 1.91

b. What is the efficiency of the information?

E= 1.91 2.59%
73.66

Problem 3. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market
of 30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on
the contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the
demand of the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

Table 2. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

 States of nature
Demand Demand
Decision alternative Demand
Demand low High
High -
low-utility average - Medium -
utility
utility utility
Manufacture 85 87 91 95
Subcontract 78 81 85 89
Buy 82 85 87 90
Lease 83 85 87 91
Outsource 85 87 89 93
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0.3 0.22 0.25 0.23

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect Information (EV

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand.

DECISION TREEE
PROBABILIDADES DEMANDA PRO-DEMAN
DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.3 85 25.5
MANUFACTUNODO 2 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.22 87 19.14
Demand High Medium - util 0.25 91 22.75
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.23 95 21.85

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.3 78 23.4

SUBCONTRANODO 3 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.22 81 17.82
Demand High Medium - util 0.25 85 21.25
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.23 89 20.47

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.3 82 24.6

NODO 1 BUY NODO 4 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.22 85 18.7
Demand High Medium - util 0.25 87 21.75
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.23 90 20.7

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.3 83 24.9

LEASE NODO 5 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.22 85 18.7
Demand High Medium - util 0.25 87 21.75
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.23 91 20.93

DEMAND LOW UTILITY 0.3 85 25.5

OUTSOURC NODO 6 DEMAND LOW AVERAGE 0.33 87 19.14
Demand High Medium - util 0.25 89 22.25
DEMAND HIGHT UTILITY 0.23 93 21.39
NODO 2 89.24 La decision esperada es fabricar esperando un pago de 89,24

EVPI= EVwPI -EVwoPI

Expected Value of Perfect Information
EVwPI:
CON
EVwoPI:
SIN

a. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relev

P(F/low)=0,22 P(D/low)=0,78
P(F/low average)= 0,35 P(D/low average)=0,65
P(F/high medium)=0,33 P(D/high medium)=0,67
P(F/high)=0,42 P(D/high)=0,58

Favorabilidad

Estado de la naturaleza Probabilidad previas

P(F/low) 0.3
P(F/low) Average) 0.22
P(F/high medium) 0.25
P(F/high) 0.23

Desfavorabilidad

Estado de la naturaleza Probabilidad previas

P(F/low) 0.3
P(F/low) Average) 0.22
P(F/high medium) 0.25
P(F/high) 0.23

NODO 2 89.24 SIN INFORMACION

NODO 2 89.24 CON INFORMACION

b. What is the expected value of market research information?

VEIM 0
b. What is the efficiency of the information?

E= 0
0
Demanda Alta utilidad
310
278
289
0.23

able (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

EV

254.07

231.94

233.84
Probabilidad previas Probabilidad condicional Probabilidad conjuntas Probabilidad posteriores
0.35 3 0.105 0.268473536
0.42 0.38 0.1596 0.408079775
0.4
0.23 0.55 0.1265 0.323446689
0.3911

Probabilidad previas Probabilidad condicional Probabilidad conjuntas Probabilidad posteriores

0.35 0.7 0.245 0.40236492
0.42 0.62 0.2604 0.402765643
0.6 0 0
0.23 0.45 0.1035 16997865
0.6089
Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond:

ate of the demand.

VE

195.66

200.83

202.9 204.81

131.15
Probabilidad condicional Probabilidad conjuntas Probabilidad posteriores
0.2 0.038 0.112426036
0.2 0.042 0.124260335
0.35 0.098 0.289940328
0.5 0.16 0.473372781
0.338

Probabilidad condicional Probabilidad conjuntas Probabilidad posteriores

0.8 0.152 0.229607251
0.8 0.168 0.253776435
0.65 0.182 0.274924471
0.5 0.16 0.241691843
0.662
Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond:

ate of the demand.

RO-DEMAN

89.24

82.94
favorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

Probabilidad condicional Probabilidad conjuntas Probabilidad posteriores

0.22 0.066 0.20490531
0.35 0.077 0.23905619
0.33 0.0825 0.25613164
0.42 0.0966 0.29990686
0.3221

Probabilidad condicional Probabilidad conjuntas Probabilidad posteriores

0.78 0.234 0.34518366
0.65 0.143 0.21094557
0.67 0.1675 0.24708659
0.58 0.1334 0.19678419
0.6779
Decision Trees, respond:
Decision Trees, respond: