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CUADRO Nº 02: SERIE HISTORICA DE PRECIPITACIONES MÁXIMAS EN 24 HORAS (mm) - ESTACION PAMPAS - SENAMH

Año Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiembre Octubre
1989 S/D 20.5 20.5 S/D S/D 0.0 4.5 2.0 4.0 8.5
1990 S/D 9.5 12.0 4.0 9.9 17.1 4.0 9.7 7.2 11.0
1991 12.6 8.9 9.3 8.2 7.2 7.8 6.6 0.0 14.1 8.2
1992 8.7 9.8 9.1 8.7 0.0 8.2 3.4 19.1 10.5 12.1
1993 14.0 16.8 11.4 21.0 8.6 5.9 3.9 9.4 7.8 8.6
1994 13.5 8.3 18.5 21.2 1.5 0.9 0.0 8.0 5.9 14.9
1995 32.8 25.1 13.4 8.3 6.3 6.6 10.3 7.5 10.8 7.1
1996 10.1 33.7 23.2 11.5 4.3 3.1 .2.9 3.4 12.5 8.8
1997 24.6 15.8 18.9 8.4 13.2 2.0 4.3 12.3 16.5 5.7
1998 23.2 21.5 10.1 3.1 3.4 6.1 0.0 13.1 1.6 27.1
1999 12.8 23.8 22.8 10.4 2.3 0.0 11.7 0.0 9.5 10.4
2000 30.3 27.2 10.0 16.4 28.2 6.3 7.9 4.3 4.2 5.6
2001 14.0 7.8 6.9 2.8 13.0 0.0 17.7 4.6 2.2 14.5
2002 6.2 13.0 9.9 8.9 9.7 1.5 8.6 6.6 17.6 10.6
2003 11.6 14.7 17.2 15.3 6.2 0.0 0.0 16.6 8.4 6.3
2004 9.0 25.9 19.6 7.5 6.3 9.5 14.0 5.6 13.5 7.7
2005 12.3 12.1 22.1 9.4 1.1 0.0 6.4 4.4 10.1 13.4
2006 32.6 11.3 18.3 9.8 6.7 4.8 0.0 6.0 7.1 19.4
2007 16.5 16.7 22.1 12.8 14.5 0.0 8.6 1.4 4.8 11.5
2008 19.8 18.0 8.5 4.7 7.0 10.5 0.0 4.4 6.7 17.0
2009 16.0 19.0 18.1 12.6 6.3 2.4 12.6 11.2 13.7 6.8
2010 24.4 18.0 12.8 14.4 2.2 4.8 1.0 8.2 10.4 12.8
2011 29.2 20.0 24.0 21.0 6.6 4.6 4.4 10.1 10.6 15.0
2012 19.8 47.4 12.6 13.6 S/D S/D S/D S/D S/D S/D
- ESTACION PAMPAS - SENAMHI

NoviembreDiciembre 0 Máximo ord


8.0 7.5 20.50 47.40
12.8 11.6 17.10 33.70
6.8 6.2 14.10 32.80
9.4 11.4 19.10 32.60
14.9 18.5 21.00 30.30
7.0 18.8 21.20 29.20
12.7 18.7 32.80 27.20
16.9 6.4 33.70 27.10
12.6 25.3 25.30 25.90
5.7 15.7 27.10 25.30
8.1 15.8 23.80 24.40
20.3 16.4 30.30 23.80
27.2 22.1 27.20 22.20
17.4 20.5 20.50 22.10
10.9 13.6 17.20 21.20
14.2 22.4 25.90 21.00
9.6 18.9 22.10 20.50
8.6 9.5 32.60 20.50
8.1 22.2 22.20 19.80
12.2 11.5 19.80 19.10
14.0 13.6 19.00 19.00
3.1 21.0 24.40 17.20
19.8 17.6 29.20 17.10
S/D S/D 47.40 14.10
PERIODO DE RETORNO ( Pmax 24 h X INTERPOLACION
Nº ORD
Año Maximo T = (N+1)/M ordenado Log(T) Y
1989 20.50 1 25.00 47.40 1.40 47.40
1990 17.10 2 12.50 33.70 1.10 33.70
1991 14.10 3 8.33 32.80 0.92 32.80
1992 19.10 4 6.25 32.60 0.80 32.60
1993 21.00 5 5.00 30.30 0.70 30.30
1994 21.20 6 4.17 29.20 0.62 29.20
1995 32.80 7 3.57 27.20 0.55 27.20
1996 33.70 8 3.13 27.10 0.49 27.10
1997 25.30 9 2.78 25.90 0.44 25.90
1998 27.10 10 2.50 25.30 0.40 25.30
1999 23.80 11 2.27 24.40 0.36 24.40
2000 30.30 12 2.08 23.80 0.32 23.80
2001 27.20 13 1.92 22.20 0.28 22.20
2002 20.50 14 1.79 22.10 0.25 22.10
2003 17.20 15 1.67 21.20 0.22 21.20
2004 25.90 16 1.56 21.00 0.19 21.00
2005 22.10 17 1.47 20.50 0.17 20.50
2006 32.60 18 1.39 20.50 0.14 20.50
2007 22.20 19 1.32 19.80 0.12 19.80
2008 19.80 20 1.25 19.10 0.10 19.10
2009 19.00 21 1.19 19.00 0.08 19.00
2010 24.40 22 1.14 17.20 0.06 17.20
2011 29.20 23 1.09 17.10 0.04 17.10
2012 47.40 24 1.04 14.10 0.02 14.10
SUMATORIA: 9.76 593.50

B= 19.425
A= 19.096
Tr
Aplicando la ecuación:
PTr2= 24.944 COMPARANDO CON: 2
PTr5= 32.674 5
PTr10= 38.522 10
PTr20= 44.369 20
PTr25= 46.252 25
PTr50= 52.099 50
PTr100= 57.947 100
PTr200= 63.794 200
PTr500= 71.524 500
Si se desea realizar un proyecto vial, con los primeros datos obtenidos aplicando funciomnes
menos inversión en la parte económica. Por otra parte no se tendría un grado de confianza e
se escojen los valores por el método de interpolación, tendremos un grado de confianza may
seguridad del proyecto pero la inversión económica también será mayor.

En todo caso se tendría que trabajar con el promedio de los resultados, para obtener una bue
del proyecto y la seguridad de la misma.
INTERPOLACION
X*Y X2
66.26 1.95423627
36.97 1.20321158
30.20 0.84790718
25.95 0.633425
21.18 0.48855907
18.10 0.3841381
15.04 0.30563424
13.41 0.24487654
11.49 0.19686747
10.07 0.15835625
8.70 0.12712599
7.59 0.10160715
6.30 0.0806541
5.57 0.06340927
4.70 0.04921687
4.07 0.0375662
3.43 0.02805326
2.92 0.02035402
2.36 0.0142054
1.85 0.00939155
1.44 0.00573363
0.95 0.00308217
0.62 0.00131132
0.25 0.00031431
299.42 6.96

DISTRIBUCION
Log Normal III Log Pearson III Gumbel Log Gumbel

23.36 23.35 23.55 22.83

29.6 29.64 29.88 28.93

33.87 33.99 34.07 33.84

38.07 38.33 38.09 39.33

39.42 39.74 39.36 41.25

43.64 44.19 39.36 41.77

47.94 48.8 47.19 55.27

52.33 53.58 51.07 63.91

58.33 60.2 56.19 63.91


os obtenidos aplicando funciomnes de probabilidad, se tendría
o se tendría un grado de confianza en el lado de la seguridad. Si
ndremos un grado de confianza mayor en la parte de la
bién será mayor.

los resultados, para obtener una buena relación entre el costo


DISTRIBUCION
Tr
Log Normal IIILog Pearson III Gumbel Log Gumbel

2 23.36 23.35 23.55 22.83

5 29.6 29.64 29.88 28.93

10 33.87 33.99 34.07 33.84

20 38.07 38.33 38.09 39.33

25 39.42 39.74 39.36 41.25

50 43.64 44.19 39.36 41.77

100 47.94 48.8 47.19 55.27

200 52.33 53.58 51.07 63.91

500 58.33 60.2 56.19 63.91

APLICANDO LA FÓRMULA:

Tr Pmax24 P10-60

2 22.83 7.13
5 28.93 8.77
10 33.84 10.06
20 39.33 11.48
25 41.25 11.97
50 41.77 12.10
100 55.27 15.47
200 63.91 17.56
500 63.91 17.56

LUEGO SE HALLA LAS PRECIPITACIONES Para distintos tiempos de duración y TIEMPOS DE RETORNO,
mediante la siguiente ecuación:

DURACION (min)
Tr Pmax24 P10-60
5 10 15 20 30 60
2 22.83 7.1284941 1.4588621 2.1837308 2.66976875 3.04574976 3.62374955 4.75823031
5 28.93 8.7717822 2.3141668 4.9523692 4.23500615 4.83141808 5.74828875 7.54789518
10 33.84 10.063003 3.1052187 5.8338444 5.6826588 6.48294228 7.71322696 10.1279931
20 39.33 11.479548 4.0561378 6.8218792 7.42287402 8.46823038 10.0752683 13.2295144
25 41.25 11.969004 4.4015408 7.1678861 8.05497362 9.18934797 10.9332342 14.3560822
50 41.77 12.101073 4.9917321 7.2616314 9.13504428 10.421524 12.3992434 16.2810523
100 55.27 15.465622 7.0718339 9.699273 12.9417033 14.7642712 17.5661251 23.0655203
200 63.91 17.564059 8.8175058 11.261891 16.1363441 18.4088102 21.9022976 28.7592106
500 63.91 17.564059 9.8567226 11.261891 18.0381471 20.5784424 24.4836664 32.1487239

luego se obtienen las intensidades a partir del cuadro anterior:


INTENSIDAD (mm/h)
Tr Pmax24 P10-60
5 10 15 20 30 60
2 22.83 7.1284941 17.506346 13.102385 10.679075 9.13724929 7.2474991 4.75823031
5 28.93 8.7717822 27.770001 29.714215 16.9400246 14.4942542 11.4965775 7.54789518
10 33.84 10.063003 37.262624 35.003066 22.7306352 19.4488268 15.4264539 10.1279931
20 39.33 11.479548 48.673653 40.931275 29.6914961 25.4046911 20.1505366 13.2295144
25 41.25 11.969004 52.818489 43.007317 32.2198945 27.5680439 21.8664685 14.3560822
50 41.77 12.101073 59.900785 43.569789 36.5401771 31.2645719 24.7984869 16.2810523
100 55.27 15.465622 84.862006 58.195638 51.7668134 44.2928137 35.1322501 23.0655203
200 63.91 17.564059 105.81007 67.571345 64.5453763 55.2264306 43.8045952 28.7592106
500 63.91 17.564059 118.28067 67.571345 72.1525884 61.7353271 48.9673329 32.1487239

T D I X1 X2 Y X21 X22 X1*X2


2 5 17.51 0.30 0.70 1.24 0.09 0.49 0.21
2 10 13.10 0.30 1.00 1.12 0.09 1.00 0.30
2 15 10.68 0.30 1.18 1.03 0.09 1.38 0.35
2 20 9.14 0.30 1.30 0.96 0.09 1.69 0.39
2 30 7.25 0.30 1.48 0.86 0.09 2.18 0.44
2 60 4.76 0.30 1.78 0.68 0.09 3.16 0.54
5 5 27.77 0.70 0.70 1.44 0.49 0.49 0.49
5 10 29.71 0.70 1.00 1.47 0.49 1.00 0.70
5 15 16.94 0.70 1.18 1.23 0.49 1.38 0.82
5 20 14.49 0.70 1.30 1.16 0.49 1.69 0.91
5 30 11.50 0.70 1.48 1.06 0.49 2.18 1.03
5 60 7.55 0.70 1.78 0.88 0.49 3.16 1.24
10 5 37.26 1.00 0.70 1.57 1.00 0.49 0.70
10 10 35.00 1.00 1.00 1.54 1.00 1.00 1.00
10 15 22.73 1.00 1.18 1.36 1.00 1.38 1.18
10 20 19.45 1.00 1.30 1.29 1.00 1.69 1.30
10 30 15.43 1.00 1.48 1.19 1.00 2.18 1.48
10 60 10.13 1.00 1.78 1.01 1.00 3.16 1.78
20 5 48.67 1.30 0.70 1.69 1.69 0.49 0.91
20 10 40.93 1.30 1.00 1.61 1.69 1.00 1.30
20 15 29.69 1.30 1.18 1.47 1.69 1.38 1.53
20 20 25.40 1.30 1.30 1.40 1.69 1.69 1.69
20 30 20.15 1.30 1.48 1.30 1.69 2.18 1.92
20 60 13.23 1.30 1.78 1.12 1.69 3.16 2.31
25 5 52.82 1.40 0.70 1.72 1.95 0.49 0.98
25 10 43.01 1.40 1.00 1.63 1.95 1.00 1.40
25 15 32.22 1.40 1.18 1.51 1.95 1.38 1.64
25 20 27.57 1.40 1.30 1.44 1.95 1.69 1.82
25 30 21.87 1.40 1.48 1.34 1.95 2.18 2.06
25 60 14.36 1.40 1.78 1.16 1.95 3.16 2.49
50 5 59.90 1.70 0.70 1.78 2.89 0.49 1.19
50 10 43.57 1.70 1.00 1.64 2.89 1.00 1.70
50 15 36.54 1.70 1.18 1.56 2.89 1.38 2.00
50 20 31.26 1.70 1.30 1.50 2.89 1.69 2.21
50 30 24.80 1.70 1.48 1.39 2.89 2.18 2.51
50 60 16.28 1.70 1.78 1.21 2.89 3.16 3.02
100 5 84.86 2.00 0.70 1.93 4.00 0.49 1.40
100 10 58.20 2.00 1.00 1.76 4.00 1.00 2.00
100 15 51.77 2.00 1.18 1.71 4.00 1.38 2.35
100 20 44.29 2.00 1.30 1.65 4.00 1.69 2.60
100 30 35.13 2.00 1.48 1.55 4.00 2.18 2.95
100 60 23.07 2.00 1.78 1.36 4.00 3.16 3.56
SUMATORIA: 50.39 52.02 57.53 72.68 69.36 62.41
X1*Y X2*Y
0.37 0.87
0.34 1.12
0.31 1.21
0.29 1.25
0.26 1.27
0.20 1.20
1.01 1.01
1.03 1.47
0.86 1.45
0.81 1.51
0.74 1.57
0.61 1.56
1.57 1.10
1.54 1.54
1.36 1.60
1.29 1.68
1.19 1.76
1.01 1.79
2.20 1.18
2.10 1.61
1.92 1.73
1.83 1.83
1.70 1.93
1.46 1.99
2.41 1.20
2.28 1.63
2.11 1.77
2.01 1.87
1.87 1.98
1.62 2.06
3.02 1.24
2.78 1.64
2.66 1.84
2.54 1.95
2.37 2.06
2.06 2.15
3.86 1.35
3.53 1.76
3.43 2.02
3.29 2.14
3.09 2.28
2.73 2.42
73.64 68.60
TABLA: Relación entre frecuencia, duración e intensidad de
precipitación
Tiempo de duración (min)
Nº de FRECUENCI
Tr
ORDEN A (m/(n+1)
10 30 60 120

1 0.031 32 116 82 81 36

2 0.063 16 113 82 53 26

3 0.094 11 112 63 40 22

4 0.125 8 112 59 36 21

5 0.156 6 109 59 32 21

6 0.188 5 108 56 32 20

7 0.219 5 108 56 31 20

8 0.25 4 107 56 31 20

9 0.281 4 106 53 31 19

10 0.313 3 105 53 30 18

11 0.344 3 105 51 30 18

12 0.375 3 104 51 29 18

13 0.406 2 104 50 29 18

14 0.438 2 103 50 29 18

15 0.469 2 102 50 28 18

16 0.5 2 101 50 28 18

17 0.531 2 101 50 28 17

18 0.563 2 101 49 28 17

19 0.594 2 100 49 28 17

20 0.625 2 99 46 27 16

21 0.656 2 98 46 27 16

22 0.688 1 98 45 27 16

23 0.719 1 98 45 27 16

24 0.75 1 97 45 27 16

25 0.781 1 97 44 27 16

26 0.813 1 96 43 27 16

27 0.844 1 95 43 26 15

28 0.875 1 95 42 26 15

29 0.906 1 95 42 26 15

30 0.938 1 95 42 26 15

31 0.969 1 95 42 25 15

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