Mes Porcentajes Pronóstico Diferencia^2

1 80
2 82
3 84 Porcentajes
4 83 82 1
86
5 83 83 0
6 84 83.3333333 0.44444444 85
7 85 83.3333333 2.77777778 84
8 84 84 0 83
9 82 84.3333333 5.44444444
82
10 83 83.6666667 0.44444444
11 84 83 1 81
12 83 83 0 80
13 83.3333333 79
MSE 1.2345679
78
77
α=0.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Mes Porcentajes Pronóstico Diferencia^2
1 80
2 82 80 4
3 84 80.4 12.96
4 83 81.12 3.5344
5 83 81.496 2.262016
6 84 81.7968 4.85409024
7 85 82.23744 7.63173775
8 84 82.789952 1.46421616
9 82 83.0319616 1.06494474
10 83 82.8255693 0.03042608
11 84 82.8604554 1.29856184
12 83 83.0883643 0.00780826
13 83.0706915

MSE 3.55529101

Mes Porcentajes Pronóstico Difeencia^2

1 80
2 82
3 84
4 83 82.8888889 0.01234568
5 83 83.2222222 0.04938272
6 84 83.1111111 0.79012346
7 85 83.5555556 2.08641975
8 84 84.4444444 0.19753086
9 82 84.3333333 5.44444444
10 83 83 0
11 84 82.7777778 1.49382716
12 83 83.4444444 0.19753086
13 83.3333333
MSE 1.14128944
entajes

8 10 12 14
Semana Ventas Pronóstico Diferencia^2
1 2750
Ventas
2 3100 2750 122500
3 3250 2890 129600 3400
4 2800 3034 54756 3300
5 2900 2940.4 1632.16 3200
6 3050 2924.24 15815.5776 3100
7 3300 2974.544 105921.608 3000
8 3100 3104.7264 22.338857 2900
9 2950 3102.83584 23358.794
2800
10 3000 3041.7015 1739.01544
2700
11 3200 3025.0209 30617.6846
2600
12 3150 3095.01254 3023.6206
13 3117.00752 2500
2400
0 2 4 6 8 10
α=0.4
MSE 44453.3454
Ventas

6 8 10 12 14
Año Costos prom.
2006 16779 Chart Title
2007 17455
45000
2008 20051
2009 18061 40000

2010 23454 35000

2011 26783 30000
2012 26136 25000
2013 28858
20000
2014 29910
2015 34288 15000
2016 36370 10000
2017 39836 5000
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
6 2018
Cuarto/Año Utilización Pronóstico diferencia^2
1./2014 82.5
2./2014 81.3
3./2014 81.3 Chart Title
4./2014 79 81.7 7.29
83
1./2015 76.6 80.5333333 15.4711111
82
2./2015 78 78.9666667 0.93444444
3./2015 78.4 77.8666667 0.28444444 81

4./2015 78 77.6666667 0.11111111 80

1./2016 78.8 78.1333333 0.44444444 79
2./2016 78.7 78.4 0.09 78
3./2016 78.4 78.5 0.01 77
4./2016 80 78.6333333 1.86777778 76
1./2017 80.7 79.0333333 2.77777778 75
2./2017 80.7 79.7 1
74
3./2017 80.8 80.4666667 0.11111111
73
4./2017 80.7333333 Dec-99 Jan-00 Jan-00 Jan-00 Jan-00 Jan-00
n=3
MSE 2.53268519

n=4
Cuarto/Año Utilización Pronóstico Diferencia^2
1./2014 82.5
2./2014 81.3
3./2014 81.3
4./2014 79
1./2015 76.6 81.025 19.580625
2./2015 78 79.55 2.4025
3./2015 78.4 78.725 0.105625
4./2015 78 78 0
1./2016 78.8 77.75 1.1025
2./2016 78.7 78.3 0.16
3./2016 78.4 78.475 0.005625
4./2016 80 78.475 2.325625
1./2017 80.7 78.975 2.975625
2./2017 80.7 79.45 1.5625
3./2017 80.8 79.95 0.7225
4./2017 80.55

MSE 2.81301136

α=0.4
Cuarto/Año Utilización Pronóstico diferencia^2
1./2014 82.5
2./2014 81.3 82.5 1.44
3./2014 81.3 82.02 0.5184
4./2014 79 81.732 7.463824
1./2015 76.6 80.6392 16.3151366
2./2015 78 79.02352 1.04759319
3./2015 78.4 78.614112 0.04584395
4./2015 78 78.5284672 0.27927758
1./2016 78.8 78.3170803 0.23321142
2./2016 78.7 78.5102482 0.03600575
3./2016 78.4 78.5861489 0.03465142
4./2016 80 78.5116893 2.21506859
1./2017 80.7 79.1070136 2.53760564
2./2017 80.7 79.7442082 0.91353803
3./2017 80.8 80.1265249 0.45356871
4./2017 80.3959149

MSE 2.39526607

α=0.5
Cuarto/Año Utilización Pronóstico diferecia^2
1./2014 82.5
2./2014 81.3 82.5 1.44
3./2014 81.3 81.9 0.36
4./2014 79 81.6 6.76
1./2015 76.6 80.3 13.69
2./2015 78 78.45 0.2025
3./2015 78.4 78.225 0.030625
4./2015 78 78.3125 0.09765625
1./2016 78.8 78.15625 0.41441406
2./2016 78.7 78.478125 0.04922852
3./2016 78.4 78.5890625 0.03574463
4./2016 80 78.4945313 2.26643616
1./2017 80.7 79.2472656 2.11043716
2./2017 80.7 79.9736328 0.52760929
3./2017 80.8 80.3368164 0.21453904
4./2017 80.5684082

MSE 2.01422787
 Chart Title

00 Jan-00 Jan-00 Jan-00 Ja n-00 Jan-00 Jan-00