Resultados

Ajuste de una serie de datos a la distribución Gumbel

Serie de datos X:

----------------------------------------
N° X
----------------------------------------
1 104.4
2 108.0
3 108.0
4 111.6
5 112.8
6 112.8
7 114.0
8 116.4
9 117.6
10 117.6
11 117.6
12 118.8
13 120.0
14 120.0
15 120.0
16 120.0
17 120.0
18 120.0
19 120.0
20 120.0
21 120.0
22 120.0
23 121.2
24 121.2
25 123.6
26 126.0
27 126.0
28 127.1
29 127.1
30 127.1
31 130.8
32 140.4
33 144.0
34 145.2
 35 146.4
36 150.0
37 156.0
38 172.8
39 174.0
40 174.0
41 188.4
42 192.0
43 193.2
44 204.0
45 219.0
----------------------------------------

Cálculos del ajuste Smirnov Kolmogorov:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
m X P(X) G(Y) Ordinario G(Y) Mom Lineal Delta
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 104.4 0.0217 0.1049 0.0833 0.0832
2 108.0 0.0435 0.1470 0.1237 0.1035
3 108.0 0.0652 0.1470 0.1237 0.0818
4 111.6 0.0870 0.1958 0.1724 0.1088
5 112.8 0.1087 0.2133 0.1903 0.1046
6 112.8 0.1304 0.2133 0.1903 0.0828
7 114.0 0.1522 0.2313 0.2089 0.0791
8 116.4 0.1739 0.2687 0.2478 0.0948
9 117.6 0.1957 0.2879 0.2680 0.0922
10 117.6 0.2174 0.2879 0.2680 0.0705
11 117.6 0.2391 0.2879 0.2680 0.0488
12 118.8 0.2609 0.3073 0.2885 0.0465
13 120.0 0.2826 0.3270 0.3094 0.0444
14 120.0 0.3043 0.3270 0.3094 0.0226
15 120.0 0.3261 0.3270 0.3094 0.0009
16 120.0 0.3478 0.3270 0.3094 0.0208
17 120.0 0.3696 0.3270 0.3094 0.0426
18 120.0 0.3913 0.3270 0.3094 0.0643
19 120.0 0.4130 0.3270 0.3094 0.0861
20 120.0 0.4348 0.3270 0.3094 0.1078
21 120.0 0.4565 0.3270 0.3094 0.1295
22 120.0 0.4783 0.3270 0.3094 0.1513
23 121.2 0.5000 0.3468 0.3304 0.1532
24 121.2 0.5217 0.3468 0.3304 0.1750
25 123.6 0.5435 0.3865 0.3728 0.1570
26 126.0 0.5652 0.4259 0.4152 0.1393
27 126.0 0.5870 0.4259 0.4152 0.1610
28 127.1 0.6087 0.4438 0.4345 0.1649
29 127.1 0.6304 0.4438 0.4345 0.1866
30 127.1 0.6522 0.4438 0.4345 0.2083
31 130.8 0.6739 0.5027 0.4977 0.1712
32 140.4 0.6957 0.6398 0.6443 0.0559
33 144.0 0.7174 0.6839 0.6910 0.0335
34 145.2 0.7391 0.6977 0.7055 0.0414
35 146.4 0.7609 0.7110 0.7194 0.0498
36 150.0 0.7826 0.7482 0.7581 0.0344
37 156.0 0.8043 0.8013 0.8126 0.0030
38 172.8 0.8261 0.9012 0.9117 0.0751
39 174.0 0.8478 0.9061 0.9165 0.0583
40 174.0 0.8696 0.9061 0.9165 0.0366
41 188.4 0.8913 0.9497 0.9573 0.0584
42 192.0 0.9130 0.9571 0.9640 0.0440
43 193.2 0.9348 0.9593 0.9660 0.0245
44 204.0 0.9565 0.9747 0.9796 0.0182
45 219.0 0.9783 0.9871 0.9900 0.0088
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------
Ajuste con momentos ordinarios:
-------------------------------------------------------
Como el delta teórico 0.2083, es mayor que el delta tabular 0.2027. Los datos
no se ajustan a la distribución Gumbel, con un nivel de significación del 5%

-------------------------------------------------------
Parámetros de la distribución Gumbel:
-------------------------------------------------------
Con momentos ordinarios:
Parámetro de posición (µ)= 122.4769
Parámetro de escala (alfa)= 22.2386

Con momentos lineales:

Parámetro de posición (µl)= 123.3193
Parámetro de escala (alfal)= 20.7792

------------------------------
Caudal de diseño:
------------------------------
El caudal de diseño para un periodo de retorno de 10 años, es 172.52