306 Chapter 4 Probability and Statistics in Water Resources Engineering FIGURE 4.10: Comparison ‘between Weibull and Gringorten probability, distributions 10 ; ° “Foe eS og} |__| Sina 02 o7 | —|— 03 § 06 - 04 8 05 - —los 3 oat — tt 06 8 o3{|— | | | | tor § 02 {|| 1 oea + TT to I 10 0 5000 40000 ea 000 —aa.n0 Flow (5) ‘The chi-square test. Based on sampling theory, its known that if the are divided into M classes, with X,, being the number of outcomes in ‘Pm being the theoretical probability of an outcome being in class m, then variable, has a chi-square distribution. The number of degrees of freedom is expected frequencies can be computed without having to estimate parameters from the sample statistics, while the number of degrees M — 1 ~ nif the expected frequencies are computed by estimating parameters from sample statistics. In applying the chi-square goodness nll hypothesis is taken as Hy: The samples are drawn from the propo distribution, The null hypothesis is accepted at the a significance level if and rejected otherwise EXAMPLE 4.17 Analysis of a 47-year record of annual rainfall indicates the followi distribution: Range | Namberof | Range | Number of (mm) | outcomes | (mm) | outcomes 1000 2 | is0-1300 | 7 rooo-1050 | 3 | 1300-1350] 5 rosoti0 | 4 | 350-1400 | 3 tioo-110 | 5 | 140-1450 | 2 riso-120 | 6 | 1450-1500] 2 Lrz0-1250 | 7 esistuhts eta The measured data also indicate a mean of 1225 mm and a standard 151 mm. Using a 5% significance level, assess the hypothesis that the: is drawn from a normal distribution.Section 4.3 Analysis of Hydrologic Data 307 Solution ‘The first step in the analysis is to derive the theoretical frequency dist bution, Appendix C.1 gives the cumulative probability distribution of the standard normal deviate, z, which is defined as 1225 oe 151 z where x isthe annual rainfall. Converting the annual rainfall amounts into standard normal deviates, z, yields: Rafal (nm) 00 150 1100 iso. 1200 1280 130 1350, vo | 116 uso | 149 1500 | 192 ‘and therefore the theoretical frequencies are given by Range Theoretical | — Theoretical (mm) | probability.pm | outcomes, Npm 1000 O07 329 1000-1050 0.05 235 1050-1100 0.08 376 1100-1150, ou 5a7 1150-1200 042 S64 1200-1250 04 658 1250-1300 012 Sos 1300-1350 oan 57 1350-1400 0.08, 376 1400-1450 0.05 238 1450-1500 04 138 1500 0.03 La where the total number of observations, N, is equal to 47. Based on the observed and theoretical frequency distributions, the chi-square statistic is given by Eque- tion 4.105 a5 C= 307 5.62235 329 +f 14l308 Chapter 4 . Probability and Statistics in Water-Resources Engineering Since both the mean and standard deviation were estimated from the data, the 7 statistic has M — 1 — m degrees of freedom, where M number of intervals), and n = 2(= number of population parameters esi ‘measured data), hence 12 — 1 ~ 2 = 9 degrees of freedom. Using a 5% level, the hypothesis that the observations are drawn from a normal d accepted if 05 142 = xbas Appendix C.3 gives that for 9 degrees of freedom, x3, = 16.919. Since 0 16.919, the hypothesis that the annual rainfall is drawn from a normal ds accepted at the 5% level. ‘The effectiveness of the chi-square test is diminished if both the num intervals, called cells is less than 5 and the expected frequency in any cells 5 (Haldar and Mahadevan, 2000; McCuen, 2002a). Kolmogorov-Smirnoy test. AS an alternative to the chi-square goodies (to assess the hypothesis that observations are drawn from a population theoretical probability distribution), the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test « ‘This test differs from the chi-square test in that no parameters from the probability distribution need to be estimated from the observed data. In the Kolmogoroy-Smirnov test is called a nonparametric test. The pi implementing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov testis as follows (Haan, 1977) 1. Let Px(x) be the specified theoretical cumulative distribution fu the null hypothesis, 2. Let Sy(x) be the sample cumulative distribution function based on: tions. For any observed x, Sv(x) = k/N, where k is the number of less than or equal to x. 3. Determine the maximum deviation, D, defined by D = max|Px(x) ~ Sn(@)l If, for the chosen significance level, the observed value of D is cor equal to the critical value of the Kolmogorov—Smirnov statistic Appendix C.4, the hypothesis is rejected. An advantage of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test over the chi-square it is not necessary to divide the data into intervals; thus any error associated with the number or size of the intervals is avoided (Haldar and 2000), EXAMPLE 4.18, Use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at the 10% significance level to assess sis that the data in Example 4.17 are drawn from a normal distribution