periodo de ret 60

N Año Caudal (X-x)^2 LN(Xi) (LN(Xi)-alfa)^2/n (Xi-x)^3/n

1 1954 2230 2742865.946 7.709756864 0.0081906837 -181704994.5786
2 1955 3220 443769.1456 8.077136639 0.0002898997 -11824850.16132
3 1956 2246 2690124.826 7.716906135 0.0079339177 -176489405.3582
4 1957 1804 4335390.266 7.497761701 0.0176627898 -361079047.8169
5 1958 2737 1320568.706 7.914617709 0.0024532434 -60701789.34909
6 1959 2070 3298437.146 7.635303886 0.0111076827 -239619584.2541
7 1960 3682 41681.3056 8.211211362 9.581480078E-05 -340386.2140518
8 1961 4240 125202.7456 8.352318548 0.0014447556 1772069.580124
9 1962 2367 2307847.106 7.76937861 0.0061745095 -140239560.3577
10 1963 7061 10079609 8.862341964 0.0196040949 1280045836.753
11 1964 2489 1952056.066 7.819636302 0.0046958824 -109093386.1045
12 1965 2350 2359787.546 7.762170607 0.006403144 -145000449.442
13 1966 3706 32457.6256 8.217708407 0.0001229418 -233902.6331238
14 1967 2675 1466908.546 7.891704659 0.0029281991 -71066438.16356
15 1968 6267 5668399.106 8.74305305 0.0134924118 539822053.0631
16 1969 5971 4346557.826 8.694669697 0.0113380267 362475104.685
17 1970 4744 735889.4656 8.464635941 0.0036570344 25251016.76681
18 1971 6000 4468319.546 8.699514748 0.0115453265 377812503.5308
19 1972 4060 30220.3456 8.308938253 0.0008604766 210140.1951642
20 1973 6900 9083231.546 8.839276691 0.018333585 1095016262.456
21 1974 5565 2818503.746 8.624252264 0.0085371472 189272673.1305
22 1975 3130 571777.9456 8.048788284 0.0005151135 -17294224.4538
23 1976 2414 2167255.066 7.789040402 0.0055719788 -127621848.6949
24 1977 1796 4368768.826 7.493317249 0.0178998495 -365257033.9406
25 1978 7430 12558801.95 8.913281138 0.0225607786 1780255387.476
total 80014431.36 204.0567211 0.2034192874 3644366146.114
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL (MUESTRAL)
Media X 3886.16
PARTE A
Desv estand 1825.906526
Desv estand 1825.906526
X 7500
Z 1.979203179
F(x)=P(X<=7500) 0.9761
P(X>=7500) 0.0239
P. retorno 41.84100418

PARTE B
Periodo retorn 60 años
P(X>=x) 0.016666667
F(z)=P(X<=x) 0.983333333
Z= 2.13
X: Gasto diseño 7775.340899
DISTRIBUCION LOGARITMO NORMAL (POBLACIONAL)
PARTE A
Alfa 8.162268844
Beta 0.451020274 0.460320639
x 7500
ln(x) 8.9226583
Z 1.685931873
P(X<=x) 0.9505
P(X>=x) 0.0495
P. RETORNO 20.2020202

PARTE B
P(X>=x) 0.016666667
P(X<=x) 0.983333333 para entrar a la tabla lo que se pide siempre tiene que ser menor
z 2.128 tabla
Ln(x) 9.122039987
X:GASTO 9154.858373

DISTRIBUCION PEARSON III (MUESTRAL)

PARTE A
S 1789.015722 MUESTRAL
X:media 3886.16
S^3 5725883028
Ganma 0.636472336
B1 9.874177446
S^2 3200577.254
Alfa1 569.3295078
delta1 (δ1) -1735.500586
x.gasto 7500
y 16.22171424 17
Grado de libertad
2β1= 19.74835489
Ji cuadrada
32.44342848
F(x)=P(X>=7500) 0.028 excedencia
P(X<=7500) 0.972
P retorno 35.71428571

PARTE B
P(X>=x) 0.016666667 excedencia
x^2=2y 36.0491 Interpolando
y 18.02455
x:caudal 8526.407595

DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL O DE VALORES EXTREMOS (MUESTRAL)

S (muestral) 1825.906526
n 25
s 1.0914
µ 0.5309
Prome 3886.16
Alfa 0.00059773
Beta 2997.96706
X=7500 dato 7500
F(X) 0.934435259
P(X>=x) 0.065564741
T: P retorno 15.25210026

PARTE B
P(X>=x) 0.016666667 excedencia
F(X)=P(X<=x) 0.983333333 no excedencia
T: Per. Retor 60
x:caudal 9833.744806
 n 32

Menor a Mayor WEIBUL

M Q MAX PROM x=Q Fn(x)
1 61 38.94 0.03030303
2 260.6 40 0.06060606
3 111 40.1 0.09090909
4 96 43.35 0.12121212
5 105 48.65 0.15151515
6 52.85 49.2 0.18181818
7 77 50.31 0.21212121
8 307 52 0.24242424
9 172 52.85 0.27272727
10 40 55.3 0.3030303
11 156 56 0.33333333
12 55.3 56 0.36363636
13 65.18 58 0.39393939
14 58.83 58.83 0.42424242
15 63.06 61 0.45454545
16 56 63.06 0.48484848
17 58 65.18 0.51515152
18 249.5 66 0.54545455
19 52 77 0.57575758
20 85.2 78 0.60606061
21 66 79.51 0.63636364
22 48.65 85.2 0.66666667
23 78 96 0.6969697
24 210 105 0.72727273
25 114 111 0.75757576
26 40.1 114 0.78787879
27 79.51 156 0.81818182
28 43.35 172 0.84848485
29 49.2 210 0.87878788
30 50.31 249.5 0.90909091
31 38.94 260.6 0.93939394
32 56 307 0.96969697
 PROB TEORICA GUMBEL para kolmogorov
PROB EXCED C PRO DE NO EXCED D
1-FX F(x) SUP(lFn(x)-F(x)l) a)
0.7925185881 0.2074814119 0.1771783816 Xm
0.7861838939 0.2138161061 0.1532100455 S
0.7855827909 0.2144172091 0.1235081182 d
0.7657393829 0.2342606171 0.1130484959 u
0.7322660714 0.2677339286 0.116218777
0.7287259777 0.2712740223 0.0894558405 Dcal
0.7215489153 0.2784510847 0.0663298726
0.7105450188 0.2894549812 0.0470307387 Nivel de Sig alfa
0.7049789217 0.2950210783 0.0222938056 G.L =n
0.6888343276 0.3111656724 0.0081353694 Dtabla
0.6841977198 0.3158022802 0.0175310531
0.6841977198 0.3158022802 0.0478340834 Criterio de aceptacion
0.6709033842 0.3290966158 0.0648427781
0.6653692358 0.3346307642 0.08961166 b) calculo de F(120)
0.6508664249 0.3491335751 0.1054118794
0.6370705725 0.3629294275 0.1219190574 Q
0.6228657096 0.3771342904 0.1380172248 120
0.6173738845 0.3826261155 0.1628284299
0.5444568536 0.4555431464 0.1202144293 b) calculo de f(80)
0.5379456033 0.4620543967 0.1440062094 Q
0.5281652258 0.4718347742 0.1645288622 80
0.4919500319 0.5080499681 0.1586166986
0.4266417759 0.5733582241 0.1236114729 c) CALCULO DE Q MAX para ca
0.3763330018 0.6236669982 0.1036057291 T
0.3450905525 0.6549094475 0.1026663101 25
0.3301824381 0.6698175619 0.118061226 50
0.1701220929 0.8298779071 0.0116960889 100
0.130061587 0.869938413 0.0214535645
0.0673585571 0.9326414429 0.0538535641
0.0333904056 0.9666095944 0.0575186854 d) Intervalo de confianza y Q di
0.0273625187 0.9726374813 0.0332435419
0.0118447502 0.9881552498 0.0184582801 Primero calculamos el TR

Q
 307.0856931105

Luego calculamos el intervalo de confianza Y Q diseño

n
Tr
p

Xm
Desv. E

Nivel de conf (Beta)

Niv de Sig (alfa)
alfa de no exedencia

Kt GUMBEL

Z(alfa)
a
b
Kt,alfa (L)
Kt,alfa (U)

I.C

CAUDAL de DISEÑO
 95.486875
70.4116918186
0.018215031
63.7987272478

0.1771783816

0.01
32
0.25529

SE ACEPTA La distribucion Gumbel se ajusta a la distribucion empirica De weibul.

b) calculo de F(120)
Gumbel
F(x)
0.6981925483 resp

b) calculo de f(80)
F(x) f(x)=1-F(x)
0.4749944491 0.5250055509 resp

c) CALCULO DE Q MAX para cada T

Q max (m3/s)
239.3973449051
278.0140454253
316.3456062906

d) Intervalo de confianza y Q diseño

lamos el TR

F(x) f(x)=1-F(x) TR
 0.9881736142 0.0118263858 84.5566869
buscar objetivo

amos el intervalo de confianza Y Q diseño

32
84.5566869453
0.0118263858

95.487 Dato calc

70.4116918186 Dato calc

0.95
0.025
0.975

3.0053254311 Cs vs Tr

1.96 alf no exc

0.9380387097
8.9119309471
2.3297760363
4.0779028796

259.5303472709 382.61891583

382.6189158266
on empirica De weibul.
KOLMORGNOV - SMIRNOV
De menor a mayor
Weibull Gumbel
Año Q max Orden Q max X F(x)
1999 1550 1 323 0.091 0.0957
2000 657 2 428 0.182 0.2068
2001 601 3 579 0.273 0.4110
2002 579 4 597 0.364 0.4358
2003 923 5 601 0.455 0.4413
2004 323 6 631 0.545 0.4818
2005 428 7 657 0.636 0.5160
2006 597 8 714 0.727 0.5868
2007 631 9 923 0.818 0.7856
2008 714 10 1550 0.909 0.9778

10

Desviación = 338.33
Qmedia = 700.30

α= 263.794 0.003790841
β= 548.036
 ANÁLISIS DE LA BONDAD DE AJUSTE (95% de confianza)

Dif. D= 0.140 (Dif. Máxima)

0.005 n= 10 (Núm. De datos)
0.025 U95% = 0.409 (Tabla Kolmogorov) 0.4301
0.138
0.072 Condición: OKA
0.013
0.064
0.120 PERIODO DE RETORNO
0.140 TR = 100
0.033
0.069 FACTOR DE FRECUENCIA
Kt = 3.14

CAUDAL MÁXIMO
X= 1761.58

INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA
δ= 15.40
ST = 1647.47

1087.36 < X < 2435.81

0.140