1.

2 MODELAMIENTO DE INTENSIDADES DE DISEÑO

CUADRO N° 1

INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS DE LA ESTACIÓN FUENTE A. WEBERBAUER

Latitud :07°10' ( S ) Departamento : Cajamarca

Longitud :78°30' ( W ) Provincia : Cajamarca
Altitud :2536 m.s.n.m Distrito : Cajamarca
Año 5 min 10 min 30 min 60 min 120 min
1973 101.0 71.0 24.0 14.0 11.0
1974 73.0 58.0 34.0 18.0 19.0
1975 90.0 50.0 24.0 16.0 10.0
1976 68.0 63.0 37.0 19.0 9.0
1977 65.0 53.0 37.0 21.0 11.0
1978 26.0 24.0 21.0 12.0 6.0
1979 60.0 60.0 38.0 23.0 14.0
1980 73.0 60.1 33.8 21.1 9.3
1981 67.2 54.8 29.1 15.5 13.0
1982 88.3 75.2 37.2 23.1 13.3
1983 75.3 50.4 31.4 23.7 14.0
1984 112.8 71.8 27.6 15.5 9.8
1985 59.3 54.4 25.6 14.7 8.1
1986 84.6 65.4 30.1 15.6 8.2
1987 76.0 49.2 21.6 13.2 8.0
1988 70.4 52.8 23.0 13.8 7.9
1989 73.6 47.8 28.0 16.0 9.6
1990 111.6 75.0 37.9 23.0 12.0
1991 83.0 73.0 41.0 26.0 14.0
1992 56.0 39.0 19.0 10.0 5.0
1993 58.0 51.0 28.0 18.0 10.0
1994 91.5 64.2 36.2 19.0 12.9
1995 71.1 56.3 28.7 16.7 9.3
1996 81.3 60.2 32.4 17.9 11.1
1997 82.2 68.1 35.0 17.9 8.9
1998 92.0 66.3 40.6 27.1 13.5
1999 89.0 65.0 45.0 26.0 12.0
2000 70.0 56.0 35.0 23.0 14.0
2001 56.0 50.0 30.0 18.0 6.0
INTENSIDADES GENERADAS DEL PROYECTO:

Utilizando la ecuación SIGUIENTE y el cuadro ANTERIOR

I AH B IB: Intensidad en la Zona del PROYECTO

IB 
HA IA: Intensidad en la Estación Fuente.
Donde: HB: Altitud media de La Zona del PROYECTO
HA: Altitud de la Estación Fuente.

Altitud media de Zona PROYECTO :3158 m.s.n.m

Factor de transferencia = 1.245

CUADRO N° 2
INTENSIDADES GENERADAS DEL PROYECTO

Año 5 min 10 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1973 125.8 88.4 29.9 17.4 13.7
1974 90.9 72.2 42.3 22.4 23.7
1975 112.1 62.3 29.9 19.9 12.5
1976 84.7 78.5 46.1 23.7 11.2
1977 80.9 66.0 46.1 26.2 13.7
1978 32.4 29.9 26.2 14.9 7.5
1979 74.7 74.7 47.3 28.6 17.4
1980 90.9 74.8 42.1 26.3 11.6
1981 83.7 68.2 36.3 19.4 16.2
1982 109.9 93.6 46.3 28.8 16.5
1983 93.8 62.8 39.1 29.5 17.4
1984 140.5 89.4 34.4 19.3 12.2
1985 73.9 67.7 31.8 18.3 10.0
1986 105.3 81.4 37.5 19.4 10.2
1987 94.6 61.3 26.9 16.4 9.9
1988 87.7 65.8 28.6 17.2 9.8
1989 91.7 59.5 34.9 19.9 12.0
1990 139.0 93.4 47.2 28.6 14.9
1991 103.4 90.9 51.1 32.4 17.4
1992 69.7 48.6 23.7 12.5 6.2
1993 72.2 63.5 34.9 22.4 12.5
1994 113.9 79.9 45.1 23.7 16.1
1995 88.6 70.0 35.7 20.8 11.6
1996 101.2 75.0 40.4 22.3 13.8
1997 102.4 84.8 43.6 22.2 11.1
1998 114.6 82.6 50.6 33.7 16.8
1999 110.8 80.9 56.0 32.4 14.9
2000 87.2 69.7 43.6 28.6 17.4
2001 69.7 62.3 37.4 22.4 7.5
Promedio 94.7 72.4 39.1 23.1 13.3
Desv. Est. 22.3 14.0 8.3 5.5 3.8
 ESTIMACIÓN DE LOS PARÁMETROS DE LA ECUACIÓN GUMBEL

CUADRO Nº 3

Intensidades Máximas Ordenadas (mm/h)

m
5 min 10 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1 102.8 68.5 41.0 24.7 17.3

2 101.7 68.3 37.4 23.7 12.8
3 92.0 66.5 37.0 23.7 12.8
4 83.8 65.4 34.6 21.6 12.8
5 83.4 64.7 34.6 21.1 12.7
6 82.0 62.1 33.9 21.0 12.3
7 81.1 60.5 33.7 21.0 12.1
8 80.5 59.6 33.7 21.0 11.9
9 77.1 59.2 33.0 19.2 11.8
10 75.6 58.5 31.9 19.1 10.9
11 74.9 57.4 31.9 17.4 10.9
12 74.1 54.9 31.0 17.3 10.1
13 69.3 54.8 30.8 16.4 10.0
14 68.6 54.7 29.6 16.4 10.0
15 67.1 52.9 28.6 16.4 9.1
16 66.5 51.3 27.4 16.3 9.1
17 66.5 51.0 27.3 16.3 8.9
18 64.8 49.9 26.5 15.2 8.7
19 64.2 49.6 26.1 14.6 8.5
20 63.8 48.3 25.5 14.6 8.5
21 62.0 48.1 25.5 14.2 8.2
22 61.2 46.5 25.2 14.2 8.1
23 59.2 45.9 23.3 14.1 7.5
24 54.7 45.6 21.9 13.4 7.3
25 54.0 45.6 21.9 12.8 7.2
26 52.9 44.8 21.0 12.6 7.2
27 51.0 43.6 19.7 12.0 5.5
28 51.0 35.5 19.1 10.9 5.5
29 23.7 21.9 17.3 9.1 4.6
Promedio 69.30 52.95 28.64 16.90 9.74
Desv. Est. 16.32 10.24 6.05 4.05 2.77
α 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.32 0.46
β 61.95 48.34 25.91 15.08 8.49

1.28255
α: Calculado con la ecuación 
Ŝ
β: Calculado con la ecuación   X  0.45005Ŝ
 PROBABILIDADES OBSERVADA Y SIMULADA

Prob. Weibull Probabilidad  e   ( Xm   )

m P(X ≤ Xm)= de Gumbel F ( x  xm )  e
1-m/(N+1) 5 min 10 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1 0.9667 0.9604 0.9229 0.9601 0.9537 0.9833

2 0.9333 0.9569 0.9217 0.9155 0.9369 0.8704

3 0.9000 0.9103 0.9026 0.9091 0.9369 0.8704

4 0.8667 0.8360 0.8891 0.8542 0.8814 0.8704

5 0.8333 0.8305 0.8792 0.8527 0.8602 0.8699

6 0.8000 0.8133 0.8358 0.8320 0.8564 0.8426

7 0.7667 0.8009 0.8031 0.8260 0.8564 0.8280

8 0.7333 0.7917 0.7835 0.8260 0.8564 0.8108

9 0.7000 0.7377 0.7746 0.8007 0.7634 0.8028

10 0.6667 0.7109 0.7554 0.7564 0.7586 0.7244

11 0.6333 0.6968 0.7255 0.7548 0.6146 0.7244

12 0.6000 0.6802 0.6432 0.7108 0.6112 0.6268

13 0.5667 0.5694 0.6396 0.7013 0.5182 0.6118

14 0.5333 0.5532 0.6363 0.6304 0.5182 0.6118

15 0.5000 0.5124 0.5667 0.5689 0.5182 0.4728

16 0.4667 0.4980 0.4998 0.4849 0.5064 0.4728

17 0.4333 0.4975 0.4899 0.4774 0.5044 0.4427

18 0.4000 0.4497 0.4411 0.4170 0.3862 0.4121

19 0.3667 0.4313 0.4246 0.3837 0.3099 0.3687

20 0.3333 0.4209 0.3660 0.3368 0.3099 0.3625

21 0.3000 0.3684 0.3576 0.3368 0.2685 0.3193

22 0.2667 0.3473 0.2828 0.3086 0.2624 0.3101

23 0.2333 0.2900 0.2586 0.1749 0.2583 0.2061

24 0.2000 0.1702 0.2428 0.0947 0.1817 0.1819

25 0.1667 0.1556 0.2428 0.0947 0.1240 0.1691

26 0.1333 0.1296 0.2121 0.0573 0.1088 0.1566

27 0.1000 0.0946 0.1621 0.0236 0.0720 0.0175

28 0.0667 0.0946 0.0070 0.0149 0.0242 0.0175

29 0.0333 0.0000 0.0000 0.0020 0.0013 0.0021

 PRUEBA DE SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV

Desviación absoluta
m P( x ≤ Xm ) - F ( x ≤ Xm )
5 min 10 min 30 min 60 min 120 min

1 0.0063 0.0437 0.0066 0.0130 0.0166

2 0.0236 0.0117 0.0178 0.0036 0.0629
3 0.0103 0.0026 0.0091 0.0369 0.0296
4 0.0306 0.0224 0.0124 0.0147 0.0038
5 0.0029 0.0458 0.0193 0.0269 0.0366
6 0.0133 0.0358 0.0320 0.0564 0.0426
7 0.0342 0.0365 0.0593 0.0897 0.0613
8 0.0583 0.0501 0.0927 0.1231 0.0775
9 0.0377 0.0746 0.1007 0.0634 0.1028
10 0.0443 0.0887 0.0897 0.0919 0.0578
11 0.0635 0.0921 0.1214 0.0187 0.0911
12 0.0802 0.0432 0.1108 0.0112 0.0268
13 0.0027 0.0729 0.1347 0.0484 0.0451
14 0.0198 0.1030 0.0971 0.0151 0.0784
15 0.0124 0.0667 0.0689 0.0182 0.0272
16 0.0314 0.0331 0.0183 0.0397 0.0062
17 0.0642 0.0565 0.0441 0.0710 0.0093
18 0.0497 0.0411 0.0170 0.0138 0.0121
19 0.0646 0.0579 0.0171 0.0568 0.0021
20 0.0876 0.0327 0.0035 0.0234 0.0292
21 0.0684 0.0576 0.0368 0.0315 0.0193
22 0.0807 0.0162 0.0420 0.0043 0.0434
23 0.0567 0.0253 0.0584 0.0250 0.0273
24 0.0298 0.0428 0.1053 0.0183 0.0181
25 0.0111 0.0761 0.0720 0.0427 0.0024
26 0.0037 0.0787 0.0760 0.0245 0.0233
27 0.0054 0.0621 0.0764 0.0280 0.0825
28 0.0279 0.0597 0.0518 0.0425 0.0491
29 0.0333 0.0333 0.0313 0.0320 0.0312
Δc 0.0876 0.1030 0.1347 0.1231 0.1028

Δt = 0.2525
Como Δc ≤ Δt, el ajuste es bueno para la distribución de Gumbel.
 CUADRO N° 4
INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS SIMULADAS MEDIANTE EL MODELO PROBABILISTICO DE GUMBEL
PARA DIFERENTES PERIODOS DE RETORNO Y AÑOS DE VIDA UTIL

Datos Simulados 1   1 
Xr    Ln   Ln 1  
   Tr 

N J % Tr 5' 10' 30' 60' 120'

 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.32 0.46
β 61.95 48.34 25.91 15.08 8.49
10 95 120 85 47 29 18
15 62 114 81 45 28 17
20 45 110 79 44 27 17
25 35 107 77 43 26 16
10 30 29 104 75 42 26 16
35 24 102 73 41 25 15
40 20 100 72 40 24 15
45 17 98 71 39 24 15
50 15 96 70 39 23 14
10 190 129 90 51 32 20
15 124 123 87 49 30 19
20 90 119 84 47 29 18
25 70 116 82 46 28 18
20 30 57 113 80 45 28 17
35 47 111 79 44 27 17
40 40 109 78 43 27 16
45 34 107 76 42 26 16
55.80 25 103 74 41 25 15
10 238 132 92 52 32 20
15 154 126 89 50 31 19
20 113 122 86 48 30 19
25 87 119 84 47 29 18
25 30 71 116 82 46 28 18
35 59 114 81 45 28 17
40 49 111 79 44 27 17
45 42 109 78 44 27 17
63.96 25 103 74 41 25 15
 10 285 134 93 53 33 21
15 185 128 90 51 32 20
20 135 124 87 49 31 19
25 105 121 85 48 30 19
30 85 118 84 47 29 18
35 70 116 82 46 28 18
30
40 59 114 81 45 28 17
45.45 50 112 79 44 27 17
53.21 40 109 78 43 27 16
63.83 30 105 75 42 26 16
78.54 20 100 72 40 24 15
95.76 10 91 66 37 22 13

CUADRO N° 6
CORRELACION PERIODO DE DURACION DE LLUVIA CON Imax. De la ESTAC. WEBERBAWER
Para Bocatoma (Quebrada Marabamba): N =20 años Tr = 50 años

Intensidad Maxima (mm/hora)

N J(%) Tr
5' 10' 30' 60' 120'
20 33.24 50 111.6 79.5 44.3 27.4 16.9
Zona de Estudio

K1 =
K2 =
K3 =
K4 =
K=

C=
Zona de Estudio

30
5
5
5
45

0.46