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TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES

PHASE 4 - SOLVE PROBLEMS BY APPLYING THE ALGORITHMS OF


UNIT 2

DANIEL PEÑA

TUTOR:
ROGER RICARDO NEGRETE

GRUPO 212066_43

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA


OCTUBRE 2018
Introducción

Se sabe que hay que tomar decisiones y en consecuencia, asumir riesgo. La


recompensa será la ganancia empresarial si la gestión ha sido la adecuada o
pérdida empresarial si no lo ha sido o no se ha sabido realizar correctamente.

Entonces, los parámetros riesgos e incertidumbre, son los elementos con los que
se va a enfrentar constantemente a la hora de la toma de decisiones, por tanto la
Gestión y estrategias empresariales son el medio más útil para afrontar dichos
parámetros.

En el desarrollo de esta temática se determina el criterio según la orientación del


problema que se va a realizar el análisis, cuando el objetivo está orientado a
recibir beneficios, se escogen los valores mayores, y cuando el objetivo es
orientado a disminuir costos se escoge los valores menores. Así se determina la
desviación del resultado.

Cuando se toma una decisión, sin conocer las probabilidades que tiene de que
ésta, sea o no exitosa, se enfrenta a una situación de incertidumbre. Pero una vez
que toma esa decisión, conociendo esas probabilidades, se enfrenta a una
situación de riesgo.

Actualmente, existen técnicas empresariales que ofrecen una actualizada y


completa información que disipan esa incertidumbre y en consecuencia, antes de
tomar la decisión, está en condiciones de estimar el riesgo que corre.

Con el siguiente trabajo nos introducimos en una serie de métodos con el fin de
conocerlos e interpretarlos por medio de una serie de ejercicios los cuales de
cierta manera nos enfocan a tomar las decisiones más adecuadas dependiendo
del criterio que manejemos.
Introduction

It is known that you have to make decisions and, consequently, take risks. The
reward will be the business profit if the management has been the appropriate or
business loss if it has not been or has not been known to perform correctly.

Then, the parameters risks and uncertainty, are the elements that will be constantly
faced when making decisions, therefore Management and business strategies are
the most useful means to address these parameters.

In the development of this topic, the criterion is determined according to the


orientation of the problem to be analyzed, when the objective is oriented to receive
benefits, the highest values are chosen, and when the objective is aimed at
reducing costs, the lower values. This determines the deviation of the result.

When a decision is made, without knowing the probability that it has, whether or
not it is successful, it faces a situation of uncertainty. But once you make that
decision, knowing those probabilities, you face a risky situation.

Currently, there are business techniques that offer an updated and complete
information that dissipate this uncertainty and consequently, before making the
decision, it is in a position to estimate the risk that it runs.

With the following work we introduce ourselves in a series of methods in order to


know and interpret them through a series of exercises which in a certain way focus
us to make the most appropriate decisions depending on the criteria we handle.
Development of the activity
Problem 1. Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage criteria
(Profit Matrix):

In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best
technology of four possible, whose performance depends on the adaptation of the
workers who will manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The expected
benefits of each alternative and degree of adaptation of the workers are given in
the table, in millions of pesos ($). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,6.

PART 5. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage


(Matrix of benefits):

According to Table 1 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic,


optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level
according to the benefit criteria.
Criterio de La place
This system is based on the principle of insufficient reason, since we can not
assume the greater probability of occurrence to one future event than another, we
can consider that all events are equiprobable.
Valor Esperado

The logic that applies is to assign to each value the same probability (1 / n) in such
a way that all are in equal conditions. N shows the possible states of nature
(1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) (1/5) VM
Alternativas No se Se adaptan Se Se Se
adaptan aceptablemente adaptan adaptan adaptan
exitosamente bien muy bien
Tecnología 1 1140 1185 1230 12 133 1236
90 5
Tecnología 2 1350 1260 1260 12 120 1263
45 0
Tecnología 3 1200 1275 1320 13 138 1305
50 0
Tecnología 4 1365 1320 1305 12 127 1311
90 5
Tecnología 5 1335 1320 1335 13 141 1353
65 0

The best option according to the Laplace criterion is technology 5 because it has
the highest expected value (1353).

CRITERIA OF WALD OR PESIMISTA


It is the conservative criterion, in this type the minimum value of each one of the
states is sought and in the end the highest one is chosen, since the philosophy of
this exercise is the best of the worst, the option chosen could not be the most
optimum
Valor Esperado
Se
No se Se adaptan Se adaptan Se
Alternativa adaptan
adapta aceptablement exitosament adaptan VM
s muy
n e e bien
bien
Tecnología 114
1 1140 1185 1230 1290 1335 0
Tecnología 120
2 1350 1260 1260 1245 1200 0
Tecnología 120
3 1200 1275 1320 1350 1380 0
Tecnología 127
4 1365 1320 1305 1290 1275 5
Tecnología 132
5 1335 1320 1335 1365 1410 0

The minimum value between the states is sought and the maximum value is
chosen among the states, the best of the worst is chosen.
In this exercise the best adaptation of technology is sought when performing the
analysis through the information
The best option according to the criterion of Wald or Pessimist is the technology 5
for having the highest expected value (1320).

OPTIMISTIC CRITERIA
This criterion determines and selects the best of the best, so that in the end the
maximum value of each one of the states is taken.

Valor Esperado

No se Se adaptan Se adaptan Se Se
Alternativa
adapta aceptablement exitosament adaptan adaptan VM
s
n e e bien muy
bien

Tecnología 133
1 1140 1185 1230 1290 1335 5
Tecnología 135
2 1350 1260 1260 1245 1200 0
Tecnología 138
3 1200 1275 1320 1350 1380 0
Tecnología 136
4 1365 1320 1305 1290 1275 5
Tecnología 141
5 1335 1320 1335 1365 1410 0

The best option according to the optimistic criterion is technology 5 because it has
the highest expected value (1410).
CRITERIO DE HURWICZ
This criterion determines a series of attitudes from the most pessimistic to the most
optimistic, where α is a coefficient of pessimism of (1 - α), and the coefficient of
optimism of α is between 0 and 1.
Valor Esperado

Optimism coefficient = 0.6


Pessimism coefficient = 0.4
Se
No se Se adaptan Se adaptan Se
Alternativa adaptan
adapta aceptablement exitosament adaptan VM
s muy
n e e bien
bien
Tecnología 125
1 1140 1185 1230 1290 1335 7
Tecnología 1350 1260 1260 1245 1200 129
2 0
Tecnología 130
3 1200 1275 1320 1350 1380 8
Tecnología 132
4 1365 1320 1305 1290 1275 9
Tecnología 137
5 1335 1320 1335 1365 1410 4

The best option according to Hurwicz criteria is technology 5 because it has the
highest expected value (1374).

CRITERIA OF SAVAGE
This criterion transforms the matrix of results into a matrix of errors, so that this
form, the person making the decision can easily assess the opportunity costs
incurred by making a wrong decision, so you must determine the best result for
every situation that may arise.
Se Se
No se Se adaptan Se adaptan
Alternativas adaptan adaptan
adaptan aceptablemente exitosamente
bien muy bien
Tecnología
1 1140 1185 1230 1290 1335
Tecnología
2 1350 1260 1260 1245 1200
Tecnología
3 1200 1275 1320 1350 1380
Tecnología
4 1365 1320 1305 1290 1275
Tecnología
5 1335 1320 1335 1365 1410

The highest value is chosen to calculate the cost matrix


Se
No se Se adaptan Se adaptan Se
Alternativa adaptan
adapta aceptablement exitosament adaptan VM
s muy
n e e bien
bien
Tecnología
1 225 135 105 75 75 225
Tecnología 12 21
2 15 60 75 0 0 210
Tecnología
3 165 45 15 15 30 165
Tecnología 13
4 0 0 30 75 5 135
Tecnología
5 30 0 0 0 0 30
Problem 2. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and
Savage (Cost matrix):

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the USA,
must plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in the day of
love and friendship. The exact number of crates is not known but is expected to fall
into one of five categories: 510, 620, 650, 710 and 730 crates. There are therefore
four levels of supply. The deviation from the number of hoppers is expected to
result in additional costs, either due to excessive supplies or because demand
cannot be met. The table below shows the costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For
Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,65.

PART 6. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and


Savage (Cost matrix):

According to Table 2 by applying the criteria of criteria of Laplace, Wald or


pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level
according to the criteria of costs.

CRITERIO LAPLACE
( ( ( ( ( (
VM
1/6) 1/6) 1/6) 1/6) 1/6) 1/6)
Altern e e e e e e
ativas 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 2 2 2 186
e1 184 571 620 065 201 561 7
1 1 1 2 2 2 188
e2 112 515 859 005 192 645 8
1 1 1 2 2 2 187
e3 271 554 669 115 217 406 2
1 1 1 2 2 2 184
e4 145 370 809 062 295 374 3
1 1 1 2 2 2 188
e5 185 451 867 100 250 473 8

The best option according to the Laplace criterion is alternative 4 because it has
the lowest expected value (1843).

CRITERIO DE WALD O PESIMISTA


Altern e e e e e e
ativas 1 2 3 4 5 6 VM
1 1 1 2 2 2 256
e1 184 571 620 065 201 561 1
1 1 1 2 2 2 264
e2 112 515 859 005 192 645 5
1 1 1 2 2 2 240
e3 271 554 669 115 217 406 6
1 1 1 2 2 2 237
e4 145 370 809 062 295 374 4
1 1 1 2 2 2 247
e5 185 451 867 100 250 473 3
The best option according to the criterion of Wald or pessimist is alternative 4
because it has the lowest expected value (2374).

OPTIMISTIC CRITERIA
Altern e e e e e e
ativas 1 2 3 4 5 6 VM
1 1 1 2 2 2 118
e1 184 571 620 065 201 561 4
1 1 1 2 2 2 111
e2 112 515 859 005 192 645 2
1 1 1 2 2 2 127
e3 271 554 669 115 217 406 1
1 1 1 2 2 2 114
e4 145 370 809 062 295 374 5
1 1 1 2 2 2 118
e5 185 451 867 100 250 473 5

Alternative 2 is the best option because it has the lowest expected value (1112).

CRITERIO DE HURWICZ
Optimism coefficient = 0.65
Pessimism coefficient = 0.35
Altern e e e e e e
ativas 1 2 3 4 5 6 VM
1 1 1 2 2 2 166
e1 184 571 620 065 201 561 6
1 1 1 2 2 2 164
e2 112 515 859 005 192 645 9
1 1 1 2 2 2 166
e3 271 554 669 115 217 406 8
1 1 1 2 2 2 157
e4 145 370 809 062 295 374 5
1 1 1 2 2 2 163
e5 185 451 867 100 250 473 6

The best option according to Hurwicz criteria is alternative 4 because it has


the lowest expected value (1575).

CRITERIA OF SAVAGE
Altern e e e e e e
ativas 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 1 2 2 2
e1 184 571 620 065 201 561
1 1 1 2 2 2
e2 112 515 859 005 192 645
1 1 1 2 2 2
e3 271 554 669 115 217 406
1 1 1 2 2 2
e4 145 370 809 062 295 374
1 1 1 2 2 2
e5 185 451 867 100 250 473

The lowest value is chosen to calculate the loss of opportunity matrix:


Altern e e e e e e
VM
ativas 1 2 3 4 5 6
7 2 6 1
e1 2 01 0 0 9 87 201
1 2 2
e2 0 45 39 0 0 71 271
1 1 4 1 2 3
e3 59 84 9 10 5 2 184
3 1 5 1
e4 3 0 89 7 03 0 189
7 8 2 9 5 9
e5 3 1 47 5 8 9 247

The best option according to Savage's criteria is alternative 3 because it has the
lowest opportunity cost (184).
Problem 6. Optimum solution of two-person games: The games represent the
latest case of lack of information where intelligent opponents are working in a
conflicting environment. The result is that a very conservative criterion is generally
proposed to solve sets of two people and sum zero, called minimax - maximin
criterion. To determine a fair game, the minimax = maximin, it is necessary to solve
the stable strategy through the Solver.

JUGADOR B
87 93 35 46
JUGADOR A

26 37 45 25
65 50 53 32
68 48 80 53
PART 10. Theory of games, mixed strategies: Solve the game of players A and B
to determine the value of the game, using the proposed Excel tool, according to the
data in table 6.

Solution:

JUGADOR B
JUGADO

ESTRATEGIAS 1 2 3 4 Mínimo
RA

1 87 93 35 46 35
2 26 37 45 25 25

3 65 50 53 32 32

4 68 48 80 53 48 Maximin

Máximo 87 93 80 53

Minimax

The maximum is determined per column and the minimum per row and the
minimax is obtained as well as the maximin, as the minimax is 53 and the maximin
is 48 do not coincide, therefore there is no saddle point.
There is no stable solution so it will be developed by the mixed strategies method,
in the following table.

Determine the probabilities of strategies of the 2 players to find an optimal mixed


strategy.
Solution for the solver complement:

JUGADOR B
Min Z Prob 1 Prob 2 Prob 3 Prob 4 Suma Prob
52,32692 0,00000 0,13462 0,00000 0,86539 1
Max Z 52,32692 Estrategias 1 2 3 4 VE
Prob 1 0,09615 1 87 93 35 46 52,32698
Prob 2 0,00000 2 26 37 45 25 26,61541
JUGADOR A

Prob 3 0,00000 3 65 50 53 32 34,42311


Prob 4 0,90385 4 68 48 80 53 52,32698
Suma
1 VE 69,8269 52,3269 75,6731 52,3269
Prob

Restrictions
Max Z Min Z
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏. ≥ 0 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏. ≥ 0

∑ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏 = 1 ∑ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏 = 1

𝑉𝐸 ≥ 𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑍 𝑉𝐸 ≤ 𝑀𝑖𝑛 𝑍

The values expected by Player B The values expected by Player A


are greater than or equal to the are less than or equal to the
objective function to apply the objective function to apply the
Minimax criterion. Minimax criteria.
Conclusiones

Con el desarrollo de esta temática sobre la toma de decisiones de riesgo se


adquirió conocimiento basado en una serie de técnicas, las cuales nos permitieron
tomar un ejemplo, el cual nos sirve para ser aplicado en el caso de que se
requiera tomar decisiones bajo riesgo, estos conocimientos la podemos aplicar en
el desarrollo de proyectos que se estén ejecutando y así mismo también para
determinar las probabilidades y ocasiones para solucionar algún problema de tipo
y orden económico.

El concepto de incertidumbre implica una serie de determinaciones al ser humano


en donde se deben tomar decisiones frente a los casos que se nos presenten, el
riesgo implica que sí se le puede asignar algún tipo de distribución probabilística

Conclusions
With the development of this topic on risk decision making, knowledge was
acquired based on a series of techniques, which allowed us to take an example,
which serves to be applied in the case that it is required to make decisions under
risk, we can apply this knowledge in the development of projects that are being
executed and also to determine the probabilities and opportunities to solve a
problem of economic type and order.

The concept of uncertainty implies a series of determinations to the human being


where decisions must be made in the cases that arise, the risk implies that it can
be assigned some kind of probabilistic distribution

Bibliografía
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Hillier, F., & Lieberman, G. (2010). Análisis de Decisiones. (pp. 634-725), México
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empresas, Valencia, España: Editorial Universidad Pontificia de Valencia.
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