Quarter Sales Time Log(Sales) Forecast Error SqError AbsError

Q1-2002 61.14 1 4.113166316 66.39 -5.25 27.599 5.254

Q2-2002 64.07 2 4.159976236 70.88 -6.81 46.423 6.813
Q3-2002 66.18 3 4.192378302 75.68 -9.50 90.193 9.497
Q4-2002 72.76 4 4.287166354 80.79 -8.03 64.557 8.035
Q1-2003 84.70 5 4.439115602 86.26 -1.56 2.429 1.559
Q2-2003 90.05 6 4.500365072 92.09 -2.04 4.169 2.042
Q3-2003 106.06 7 4.664004972 98.32 7.74 59.913 7.740
Q4-2003 118.21 8 4.772462704 104.97 13.24 175.335 13.241
Q1-2004 134.38 9 4.900671607 112.07 22.31 497.861 22.313
Q2-2004 154.67 10 5.041293815 119.65 35.02 1226.691 35.024
Q3-2004 157.41 11 5.058853866 127.74 29.67 880.487 29.673
Q4-2004 147.16 12 4.99152043 136.38 10.78 116.309 10.785
Q1-2005 156.43 13 5.052608626 145.60 10.83 117.335 10.832
Q2-2005 154.32 14 5.039028369 155.44 -1.12 1.263 1.124
Q3-2005 169.04 15 5.130135373 165.96 3.08 9.511 3.084
Q4-2005 192.86 16 5.261964537 177.18 15.68 245.893 15.681
Q1-2006 185.08 17 5.220788164 189.16 -4.08 16.654 4.081
Q2-2006 201.42 18 5.30539228 201.95 -0.53 0.284 0.533
Q3-2006 221.54 19 5.40060316 215.61 5.93 35.161 5.930
Q4-2006 216.38 20 5.377036121 230.19 -13.81 190.750 13.811
Q1-2007 243.48 21 5.495034804 245.76 -2.28 5.190 2.278
Q2-2007 252.39 22 5.53097551 262.38 -9.99 99.755 9.988
Q3-2007 239.93 23 5.480347214 280.12 -40.19 1615.338 40.191
Q4-2007 256.16 24 5.545802249 299.06 -42.90 1840.815 42.905
Q1-2008 249.74 25 5.520420377 319.29 -69.55 4837.098 69.549
Q2-2008 278.02 26 5.627693054 340.88 -62.86 3951.566 62.861
Q3-2008 300.32 27 5.704848573 363.93 -63.61 4046.729 63.614
Q4-2008 403.81 28 6.00094447 388.55 15.26 233.012 15.265
Q1-2009 430.90 29 6.065876045 414.82 16.08 258.534 16.079
Q2-2009 428.63 30 6.060594076 442.87 -14.24 202.882 14.244
Q3-2009 485.29 31 6.18474665 472.82 12.47 155.416 12.467
Q4-2009 513.92 32 6.242067611 504.80 9.12 83.201 9.121
Q1-2010 544.99 33 6.300767446 538.94 6.05 36.651 6.054
Q2-2010 570.81 34 6.347056405 575.38 -4.57 20.904 4.572
Q3-2010 584.31 35 6.370431664 614.29 -29.98 898.968 29.983
Q4-2010 700.19 36 6.551351727 655.83 44.36 1967.374 44.355
Q1-2011 723.98 37 6.584763768 700.19 23.79 566.138 23.794
Q2-2011 821.90 38 6.711618733 747.54 74.36 5529.841 74.363
Q3-2011 889.26 39 6.790389656 798.09 91.17 8311.971 91.170
Q4-2011 935.33 40 6.840899408 852.06 83.27 6933.633 83.268
Q1-2012 983.21 41 6.890822729 909.68 73.53 5406.217 73.527
Q2-2012 987.81 42 6.895490372 971.20 16.61 275.853 16.609
Q3-2012 1074.58 43 6.979685167 1036.88 37.70 1421.324 37.700
Q4-2012 1324.97 44 7.189145097 1107.00 217.97 47511.143 217.971
Q1-2013 1382.97 45 7.231988639 1181.86 201.11 40444.686 201.109
Q2-2013 1233.70 46 7.117773063 1261.79 -28.09 788.814 28.086
Q3-2013 1232.27 47 7.116613276 1347.12 -114.85 13189.434 114.845
Q4-2013 1429.06 48 7.264772164 1438.22 -9.16 83.817 9.155
Q1-2014 1279.48 49 7.154209024 1535.48 -256.00 65533.856 255.996
Q2-2014 1270.27 50 7.146984755 1639.31 -369.04 136193.317 369.044
Q3-2014 1440.57 51 7.272794148 1750.17 -309.60 95854.575 309.604
Q4-2014 1544.50 52 7.342455512 1868.53 -324.03 104996.109 324.031
Q1-2015 1466.92 53 7.290920244 1994.89 -527.97 278754.616 527.972
Q2-2015 1465.41 54 7.289890346 2129.80 -664.39 441412.218 664.389
Q3-2015 1592.03 55 7.37276521 2273.83 -681.80 464848.796 681.798
Q4-2015 1700.33 56 7.438577629 2427.60 -727.27 528918.666 727.268
Q1-2016 1689.69 57 7.432300359 2591.77 -902.08 813742.024 902.077
Q2-2016 1796.50 58 7.493595607 2767.04 -970.54 941942.297 970.537
Q3-2016 1822.91 59 7.508189404 2954.16 -1131.25 1279727.843 1131.251
Q4-2016 1898.27 60 7.548698224 3153.94 -1255.67 1576703.158 1255.668
AbsPctError Regression coefficients (through 2011 only)
0.086 Intercept 4.130
0.106 Slope 0.0654
0.144
0.110 Measures of forecast error (through 2011 only)
0.018 RMSE 33.69
0.023 MAE 23.08
0.073 MAPE 8.30%
0.112
0.166
0.226 Sales (through 2011)
0.189 1000.00

0.073 900.00
0.069 800.00 f(x) = 62.1879880713 exp( 0.0654374229 x )
0.007 700.00
0.018 600.00
0.081 500.00
0.022 400.00
0.003 300.00
0.027 200.00
0.064 100.00
0.009 0.00
0.040 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
0.168
0.167
0.278 Log(Sales) (through 2011)
0.226 8
0.212 7
0.038 f(x) = 0.0654374229x + 4.1301618633
6
0.037
5
0.033
0.026 4
0.018 3
0.011
2
0.008
0.051 1
0.063 0
0.033 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
0.090
0.103
0.089 Sales and Forecasts (all years)
0.075 3500.00
Estimation period Forecast
0.017 3000.00 period
2500.00

2000.00

1500.00

1000.00
 Sales and Forecasts (all years)
3500.00
Forecast
3000.00 period
0.035
2500.00
0.165
2000.00
0.145
0.023 1500.00
0.093 1000.00
0.006
500.00
0.200
0.291 0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
0.215
0.210 Sal es Forecast
0.360
0.453
0.428
0.428
0.534
0.540
0.621
0.661
 Theexponential
The exponential trendtrend through
through2011
2011isis
apparenthere.
apparent here. II superimposed
superimposed an an exponential
exponential
trend curve
trend curve on
on the
the original
original time
time series
series graph
graph
and elected to show the exponential
and elected to show the exponential equation. equation.
ItItimplies
implies aaquarterly
quarterlygrowth
growthraterateof
of about
about
6.6%.
6.6%.

33 35 37 39

IfIf sales
sales are
are growing
growing exponentially,
exponentially, thenthen the the log
log
of sales
of sales isis linear
linear versus
versus time,
time, as as shown
shown here. here.
The coefficent
The coefficent of of time
time in
in this
this linear
linear fit
fit isis the
the
same as
same as the
the exponent
exponent in in the
the exponential
exponential
equation. Each
equation. Eachisisthethe growth
growth rate.rate.

33 35 37 39

This example,
This example, loosely
looselypatterned
patterned after
after Intel
Intel sales
sales
in earlier years, shows that a good thing
in earlier years, shows that a good thing can't can't
last forever.
last forever. The
The predicted
predicted exponential
exponential growth
growth
(thered
(the red line)
line) isis much
much higher
higher than
than actual
actual sales
sales
after 2011.
after 2011.
 This example,
This example, loosely
looselypatterned
patterned after
after Intel
Intel sales
sales
in earlier
in earlier years,
years, shows
shows that
that aa good
goodthing
thingcan't
can't
last forever.
last forever. The
The predicted
predicted exponential
exponential growth
growth
(thered
(the red line)
line) isis much
much higher
higher than
than actual
actual sales
sales
after 2011.
after 2011.

49 52 55 58