Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: From Four Pillars to
Three Pillars Leadership

October 21,2018

On Tuesday October 23, Vietnam's National Assembly will elect Nguyen Phu Trong as
Vietnam's next state president. When Trong takes the oath of office he will
concurrently hold the office of Secretary General of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
We request your analysis of the following issues:

Q1. When Vietnam's party Secretary General concurrently hold the office of state
president, Vietnam's political system will change from "four pillars" (party leader,
president, prime minister, and chair of the National Assembly)to "three pillars." How
will this change affect Vietnam in general and the country's political system in
particular?

ANSWER: The immediate effect of one person occupyingtwo posts concurrently, party
Secretary General and state President, will be felt in Vietnam's external relations.
Vietnam has a wide range of international relations and in the majority of countries
there is no counterpart for Vietnam's Secretary General. Now Vietnam's party leader
can meet with other heads of states/heads of government on an equal basis in terms
of diplomatic protocol. Vietnam's president will now be able to make international
commitments with foreign leaders in an officialjoint statement.
The impact on Vietnam's political system will be marginal. The replacement of "four
pillars" with "three pillars" will reduce the number of senior members of the Politburo
involved in decision-making. ln 1982, the 5th national party congress set the goal of
eliminating the chaotic overlap between state and party institutions. There is a risk
that concurrently occupying the posts of party leader and state president could create
some bureaucratic overlap. But this risk will be mitigated if the prime minister plays a
strong leadership role. At the same time, Vietnam could benefit from quicker decision
making and policy implementation.

Q2. lf the change from "four pillars" to "three pillars" develops shortcomings what
should Vietnam do to overcome this probem?
ANSWER: Vietnam will have over two years to evaluate how effective "three pillars"
functions in terms of policy making and implementation. lf shortcomings emerge they
should be studied carefully and addressed by adopting new rules and regulations both
within the Vietnam Communist Party and by the National Assembly. When the terms
of party leader and state president expire a decision will have to be made whether to
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continue with the "three pillars" system or revert back to the "four pillars." This
decision can only be made on the basis of actual experience. Vietnam's leaders will
also have to consider whether to amend the state Constitution. lf the decision is made
to retain the "three pillars" Vietnam will also have to carefully evaluate the
requirements a candidate will need to have to become concurrent head of state and
party Secretary General. Vietnam's leaders might consider raising the status of vice
president to better assist the president in state affairs.

Q3. What should Vietnam's top leaders (the "three pillars") do to maintain security
and social order as well as fostering economic development? For example, should
Nguyen Phu Trong keep on implementing or speed up the anti-corruption campaign?
Should he step up visits to Vietnam's major strategic partners?
Answer: Next year, for example, the National Assembly will consider the draft Law on
Special Administrative and Economic Zones. This draft legislation led to social unrest
this year. The "three pillars" will be called upon to be more responsive to public
opinion through greater transparency and consultations.
By occupying two posts concurrently Nguyen Phu Trong will face a very heavy work
load and schedule. The office of state president comes with a range of powers
enumerated in the state Constitution. The exercise of these powers is largely
dependent on the approval of the National Assembly. A decisive president can speed
up the pace of policy implementation and economic development by attending
meetings of the National Assembly's Standing Committee and playing a more active
role in legislative affairs. At the same time, the demands to travel overseas will
increase because there is one less pillar.
It is clear that the anti-corruption campaign has top priority and will be accelerated in
tandem with party-building measures to select qualified candidates to serve on the
party Central Committee and take leading roles after the next national party congress.
At the same time, the president can take on a more proactive role in the selection and
appointment of senior state officials in the coming years.
The heavier work load on Nguyen Phu Trong as party Secretary General and state
President could be addressed by increasing the workload of senior party officials to
assist the Secretary General and by devolving more authority to the vice president to
assist the president.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: From Four Pillars to Three Pillars
Leadership," Thoyer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , October 27,2018. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Brief
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam: Implications of One
Person Concurrently Holding
Posts of Party Secretary General
and State President

October 21,2018

Next week Vietnam's National Assembly will vote to approve Nguyen Phu Trong's
nomination as the next state president while he concurrently holds the position of
Secretary General of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
What impact will this chane have on Vietnam's political image, its economy and the
current anti-corruption campaign?
ANSWER: When Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong swears an oath to become
concurrently the new state President, Vietnam's political structure will be better
aligned to engage with the international community, in particular countries with
multiparty systems such as the U,S., Japan, lndia, South Korea, Australia, France, the
United Kingdom etc, This is because in diplomatic protocol terms Vietnam's party
secretary general does not have a foreign counterpart.
When Trong becomes President he will have the status to meet other heads of
government/state and reach substantive agreements in the form of joint statements.
For example, when then party Secretary General Nong Duc Manh visited Australia he
could witness but not sign the agreement on comprehensive partnership with
Australia. This document was signed by the two Deputy Prime Ministers, Pham Gia
Khiem and Julia Gillard.
Secretary General Trong has already elevated the status of Vietnam's party leader in
global affairs by visiting lndia, Japan and the United States. Now he will have enhanced
authority to deal with all heads of state as an equal. ln addition to countries with
multiparty systems, Trong will be able to meet President and General Secretary Xi
Jinping and President Vladimir Putin as an equal in protocol terms.
Trong's assumption of the office of state president will not signal any major shift in
Vietnam's economic policy or its fight against corruption. An argument can be made
that by concurrently holding two offices Trong will be better able to cut through
bureaucratic red tape and push for quicker implementation of policy decisions. As
president Trong will have substantial power to appoint and dismiss all high-ranking
members of the government and courts, subject to the concurrence of the National
Assembly. Trong is deeply committed to ending corruption and the anti-corruption
campaign against high officials is likely to intensify.
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There are two unknowns at this point. Will Vietnam's leaders continue this policy
when Trong's terms as secretary general and president expire in 2021? And what
unforeseen difficulties are likely to arise through holding two posts at the same time?
ln other words, Vietnam will go through an experimental period of trial and error
which is normal when political changes of this magnitude are made. Trong will be very
busy and it may be necessary to create special assistant positions to take increased
responsibility for party and government affairs in this new situation.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: lmplications of One Person

Concurrently Holding Posts of Party Secretary General and State President," Thayer
Consultancy Bockground Brief , October 2I,2018. All background briefs ae posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients, Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.