“The Historic 2008 Presidential Election and the Economic Crisis”

“What was remarkable … about our campaign was we never really changed our theory”.

Barack Obama, six weeks after his election

The 2008 presidential election has been hailed as “historical” and “the election of our lifetime”. What

factors contributed to the outcome of the election? What made it so extraordinary? The 2008 election

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came amidst turbulent times. The policies of an unpopular president had assured a “democratic year”.

Even then, the polls conducted before and after the conventions predicted a close election, if not

McCain’s victory. What factors came into play which changed the course of the election? I would argue

in this paper that the Wall Street meltdown was a game changer for the republicans. It decided the

election one month before the election was held. Additionally, the other factor that greatly contributed

towards making this election historical was Obama’s campaign strategy. The “change we can believe in”

theme resonated with not only Americans, but with the international community as well. I would argue

that the economy raised the stakes in the election and the campaign strategy made the 2008 presidential

election ‘historical’.

The slogan of ‘change’ was not just a catchphrase to galvanize support in the democratic base; it was a

theme which resonated within and across national borders. It came at a time when America was

struggling with a crashing economy, with tainted international reputation, and a possible economic

depression in near-future. Obama came forwards with his messages of ‘hope’ and ‘change’. These

messages did not only promise change, they also brought about immediate change which set the course of

this historic election. Obama’s campaign strategy involved using of technological mediums to spread his

message across to different constituencies giving an impression of alleviation from partisanship. He used

emails, text messages, and other social networking sites to not only keep in touch with his supporters, but

make them feel like a part of his team, almost his equals. He announced his selection of running mate,

Senator Joseph Biden, first to his supporters via text messages hours before it was released to mainstream

media. This developed a close relationship between Obama and his supporters. Furthermore, Obama

enhanced traditional grass root campaigns by assigning roles to his supporters. Many people volunteered

to keep an eye on polling stations to determine if any of them were lacking in polling machines or

workers. They then reported it to the ‘boiler room’ where all such concerns were reported by Obama’s

supporters from all over the country. This helped Obama to develop a much closer and personal

relationship with his supporters. This also in turn proved effective in mobilizing the people, especially the

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young people, to go out and vote for him. Obama’s strategy was particularly focused on the age group of

18-24 because this age group of people uses the technology most. This is the age group which

traditionally has the lowest turnouts on election days. However, the emphasis Obama’s team placed on

establishing a close relationship through technological medium inspired young people to vote in record

numbers in 2008 election. Donna Brazile, a former political campaign strategist for Vice-President Al

Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign, commented on Obama’s success with the younger generation:

“Obama invited the young to become actively involved. He made them believe that they could make a

difference, and he inspired them to do the impossible. Obama spoke to them as equals. They were invited

into his campaign as partners who had an equal stake in the outcome. Perhaps, most importantly, Obama

had the confidence in them to step back and put the youth in charge of organizing one another and to

become the voice of change.” (Alex-Assensoh, 2008). This philosophy of empowerment generated

unprecedented levels of support among young people (66%) and new voters (68%) for Obama in the 2008

elections (Alex-Assensoh, 2008).

However, Obama was not only unique in his emphasis on a ‘changed’ relationship with the youth during

his campaign; he was also unique in what he had to offer. Never had any African-American made to the

highest office on land. Obama projected his image during his campaign which symbolized ‘change’. He

symbolized change through defying all odds. He was not only a black, but he was familiar with Muslim

culture. He was American, black, and had a Muslim father. He was a contradiction in himself. However,

he defied all stereotypes by rising to the peaks of the political world. He set the example for people that

you can be an American and African and still, work towards a better tomorrow. His image was projected

as a complete package which had never been offered by any previous President. Obama’s diverse

background appealed to the ethnic minorities in US. Furthermore, Obama’s campaign team realized the

need to mobilize these minorities. The Latino, Black, and Asian minorities have had generally lower

turnout rates than expected in past elections. Obama connected to these minorities in a way no other

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presidential candidate had been able to. To them, Obama offered a new hope, a President who is one of

them and who understands the sufferings of these minorities. Obama’s profile along with efforts of

Obama’s team such as voter registration drives, house-to-house meetings, and the use of internet

mobilized these minorities. Researchers from Project Vote, a U.S.-based non-profit research

organization, reported, inter alia: “The overall message is total ballots cast by white Americans was

down, while African-Americans and Latinos cast substantially more ballots than they did in 2004.

Nationally, 3.35 million more people voted for president in 2008 than four years ago” (Alex-Assensoh,

2008). In terms of the specifics, Project Vote also reported that 1.18 million fewer whites voted in the

2008 general elections than they did in 2004. In contrast, 2.88 million more African-Americans, 1.52

million more Latinos, 67,000 more Asian-Americans and 1.32 million members of other minorities voted

in the 2008 compared to the elections held four years prior. The sum total is 1.18 million fewer white

voters and 6.96 million more minority voters (Alex-Assensoh, 2008). Change, as a factor in the 2008

election, not only emanated from those who turned out to vote but also from those who stayed home on

Election Day. Moreover, these first-time voters overwhelmingly supported Obama (Alex-Assensoh,

2008).

However, the margin with which Obama won against McCain is not extraordinary. Since Civil War,

sixteen victory margins in presidential elections were smaller and seventeen were larger than Obama’s

victory margin. Many held the view that that year was ‘democratic year’ because of the unpopularity of

Bush and his policies. Whoever the democratic nominee would be, would sweep the elections. However,

that was not the case. Obama did not win with 58% or 59% landslide. However, statistics reveal that the

serving president is partly blamed for the policies and the party is partly held accountable for the

unpopular policies. The burden which McCain was supposed to be carrying because of Bush was

overstated. McCain was partly carrying the baggage of Bush’s administration negative policies. McCain’s

position of moderate conservative did not please his fellow republicans, but he was seen in a better light

by the public. Moreover, McCain’s criticism of his own party and Bush particularly on earmarks and

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fiscal policy earned him support from the public. Statistics show that if president’s popularity was less

than 46% in July, the in-party candidate trailed in September polls. When the president’s popularity was

more than 46% in July, the in-party candidate led in the September polls. However, Bush’s popularity in

July was only 31% but McCain was leading in September polls with 52.7%. Furthermore, the republicans

and some independents who had become disgruntled with Bush saw hope in McCain and supported him.

Therefore, McCain not only promised a close election, he was also on his way to becoming the 44th

President of the United States.

History shows that near-dead-heat (51.5% or less) victories were common in an open election and

competitive victories (51.6% to 57%) were more common when an incumbent was running. This was

proven correct by the Gallup polls in August pre-convention polls which showed Obama’s lead by 51.3%

to McCain’s 48.7%. This poll suggested a close election in November taking into consideration that the

republicans have better turn-out rates on election days than the democrats.

Gallup polls show that ten days before the Conventions, McCain was closing in on Obama. Obama was

still leading but with a close margin, 50.6% for Obama to 49.4% for McCain. The last two pre-convention

Gallup polls show that the race was tied. Despite Obama’s charismatic personality and offerings of

‘hope’, Americans were still indecisive about the two candidates. McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin

benefited McCain as republicans became enthusiastic about their ticket. The post-convention Gallup polls

show that McCain was leading the race with 53%. He maintained his lead for ten days. However, his

exceptional journey was brought to an end by an unforeseen event, the Wall Street meltdown. The

economic crisis which hit the US raised the stakes of the elections and changed the course of election

dramatically.

On September 19, President Bush called the crisis “a pivotal moment for America’s economy” and asked

Congress to “act now to protect our nation’s economic health from serious risk” (Campbell, 2008). The

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administration proposed a $700 billion financial institutions bailout bill and Congress reconvened to

consider it. In just over a month, the stock market lost 25% of its value. This threatened US growth,

prosperity, and brought the possibility of a depression. The Gallup poll on September 24 showed that

64% Americans thought of Wall Street meltdown as a ‘crisis’. President Bush’s approval rating went

from 31% to only 25%. In just a week, McCain’s rating came crashing down from 51% to just 45%. The

Wall Street meltdown was an unforeseen event which neither candidate could have prepared for. This was

the time when America was vulnerable and looked upon their candidates. McCain bolted under the times

of crisis and Obama was able to maintain his composure. McCain decided to present himself above

politics by putting a hold on his campaign and rushed to Washington. Meanwhile, Obama came out with a

joint statement with McCain endorsing his support of the Bailout plan. As Obama kept his composure in

the times of crisis, McCain kept on making rash and unprofessional decisions. During the first

Presidential debate which occurred the following Friday. Barack Obama was able to impress the viewers

with “the ease on stage” while McCain just appeared to be “dismissive” (Campbell, 2008). The debate

proved to be the last straw for the public. The Gallup polls conducted after the debate gave Obama an

edge by 52% to 35%. Daniel Henninger wrote for the Wall Street Journal on Thursday October 16th:

“Neither Mr. McCain nor the GOP is likely to recover from those dramatic days. Call it the Katrina

Dysfunction Syndrome… But make no mistake: the infighting over the Paulson Plan among

conservatives--- always looking for an excuse to bolt the McCain candidacy--- neutralized Mr. McCain at

the exact moment that the US electorate was focusing like a laser on the crisis. The need for immediate

action was manifest and undeniable… Amid all this, on Monday Sept. 26, House Republicans voted to

defeat the rescue plan”. (Dan Blaz, 2009)

The economic crisis was the major decisive factor which changed the course of 2008 presidential

elections. However, there were other factors which aided Obama. As mentioned before, Obama ran a very

effective campaign. His campaign was able to mobilize young and ethnic voters and caused them to vote

in record numbers on the Election Day. The campaign was much effective because of the finances

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available for it. Obama made a great choice by opting out of public funding for his presidential campaign

and was able to outspend McCain. Statistics show that Obama outspent McCain by $460 million

(Campbell, 2008). The large funds at his disposal allowed Obama to make his campaign much more

efficient. In fact, the national exit poll indicates that 26 percent of voters were contacted by the Obama

campaign and 18 percent by the McCain campaign. The eight percentage-point advantage in contacting

for Obama (coupled with Obama’s appeal to younger potential voters who have historically low turnout

rates) undoubtedly brought some voters to the polls who might not have made it there otherwise

(Campbell, 2008).

In mid-December 2008, Obama reflected on the election: "I don't think I was the most interesting

character in the election; a whole cast of characters at the beginning who are fascinating in their own

right, in some ways compelling just from a human perspective: John Edwards, [Mike] Huckabee. And

then comes the general election [and] you get Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber. You've got Reverend

Wright, Bill Ayers. It's a pretty fascinating slice of Americana." (Dan Balz, 2009) I think that Obama

captures the 2008 election beautifully. From an outsider’s perspective, it was amazing to see America

struggling with economic crisis, a fruitless war in Iraq, and an unpopular president while at the same time,

upholding the American ideals and fighting against stereotypes in the most spectacular election I’ve ever

seen. This election was historical not only for America, but also for the international community. All eyes

were on America as it underwent a test of times. Bush’s policies had tarnished America’s reputation

worldwide and everybody wanted a change, a change for the better. “In fact, the last eight years often

read like a litany of bad reviews, reflecting among other things, U.S. hostility to the Kyoto Protocol,

alleged American violations of human rights protocols regarding its political detainees at Guantanamo

Bay, the unreasonable restrictions on the use of American funding to stem the global tide of AIDS, and

the unilateral activity that propelled the United States into war in Iraq. Taken together, these issues have

increased anti-Americanism throughout the world. Evidence of these sentiments are apparent from an

opinion survey conducted by major newspapers in eight countries, including the London-based

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newspaper, The Guardian; Le Monde in France; Canada’s La Presse; and Mexico’s Reforma (Glover,

2008) The findings showed that, based on international opinion, Obama would win by a large majority

had he run in most of the countries sampled.” (Alex-Assensoh, 2008).

However, it was American people who had to elect their leader, and amidst such turbulent times, they

elected the person they believed in most. Barack Obama became the 44th President of the United States,

and the first African-American to hold this position. This was indeed a monumental election as America

demonstrated that they are ready for change and change was in during the election in all fashions. The

election had record turn-out rates for young people and minorities. Democrats won both chambers of the

Congress. However, it would be a mistake to try to determine any single factor which turned the course of

this election. The economic crisis was a huge factor which almost decided the election. However, it was

not the only factor. All the factors are tied with one another and complemented each other along the

journey. This shows excellent planning and campaigning by Obama’s team. Their financing, targeting

youth and minorities through innovative means, Obama’s message, and his profile all helped Obama pave

the way to the White House. This election was indeed historical as the world saw America breaking the

shackles of its racist history. However, the timing of Wall Street meltdown proved to be a final straw for

public as the approval of Bush went down to a new low and McCain crumbled under the pressure. This

event was a major factor in turning the course of the election. While it caused voters frustration, it gave

them the opportunity America needed to make history.

Works Cited

Alcime, N. (2008, 11 11). History Made in 2008 Election. Retrieved 11 21, 2010, from The Current:
http://media.www.nsucurrent.com/media/storage/paper779/news/2008/11/11/News/history.Made.In.
2008.Election-3535866.shtml

ALEX-ASSENSOH, Y. M. (2008). Change and the 2008 American Presidential Election. Politička misao ,
235-243.

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Campbell, J. E. (2008). An Exceptional Election: Performance, Values, and Crisis in the 2008 Presidential
Election. The Forum , Volume 6, Issue 4.

Dan Balz, H. J. (2009, August 2). Battle for America 2008. Retrieved 11 20, 2010, from Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/31/AR2009073101582.html

Dan Blaz, H. J. (2009). The Battle for America 2008: the story of an extraordinary election. Penguin
Group.