Scribd Logo
Cargar

¡Te damos la bienvenida a Scribd!

  • WLS Method

    Cargado por

    Suresh C
    6 vistas9 páginas
    WLS method

    Título original

    WLS method

    Derechos de autor

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Formatos disponibles

    PDF o lea en línea desde Scribd

    ¿Le pareció útil este documento?

    ¿Este contenido es inapropiado?

    Denunciar este documento
    WLS method

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Descargue como PDF o lea en línea desde Scribd
    Marcar por contenido inapropiado
    6 vistas9 páginas

    WLS Method

    Cargado por

    Suresh C
    WLS method

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Descargue como PDF o lea en línea desde Scribd
    Marcar por contenido inapropiado
    de 9
    TECHNICAL PAPERS {aN ieee en si Se ashi a enced aah alan WLS Method for Parameter Estimation in Water Distribution Networks PV. Niranjan Reddy, K. Sridharan, and P, V. Rao Reservoir Operating Rules with Fuzzy Programming Samuel 0. Russell ‘and Paul F, Campbell DTM SMO TWN | ses2= RG, Willey, Donald J. Smith, and James H. Duke Jr. Chance-Constrained Optimal Monitoring Network Design for Pollutants in Ground Water Bithin Datta and Sanjay 0. Dhiman Integration of Water Resources || Planning and Environmental Regulation William Whipple J. ntrolting Microbial Biota Transfer Inthe Garrison Diversion Unit Charles J. Moret, David M. Kopchynski, and Tia L. Cruise Disaggregation Modeling Process for Climatic Time Sari Susan E. Firor, Brad A. Finns Robert Wills, and John A. Dracup TECHNICAL NOTES Comparison of Methads for Predicting Deicint-Network Performance Rajesh Gupta and Pramod R. Bhave a : Modeling Low Velocity/ High J | dispersion Fow in Water « Distribution Systems David H. Axworthy I AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS eee WATER RESOURCES PLANNING and MANAGEMENT DIVISION x contents cone on bck coer rated ading data Bar yend fin Sa for ecorde ‘Soe | fore 1000, veoh aid of wiley Aemy 2 oper: tke ASCE and by: Boxon, the in Smotly ‘fe et adel for sng the ep (Gingle and/or group resistances, Hazen. for multiple Ioading conditions). {in pipes, and consumptions/nf PVE RAG, ser. seu cence PRO, = INTRODUCTION Parameter estimation in a water distribution network plays ‘an important role during detection of the performance of the newvork under varied loading conditions. Neuman (1973) clas- ited parameter estimation techniques into direct or indirect in ground-water flow models. The direct techniques treat the model parameters as dependent variables, and an analogous Situation exists in the case of a general analysis problem, ‘wherein the unknowns include a combination of heads, con- Sumptions, and resistances of pipes. The general analysis prob- Jems are well-posed only when the unknowns are distributed lover the entire network such that an adequate number of in- ependent equations can be formulated. The studies of Gof man and Rodeh (1981), Ormsbee and Wood (1986), and Bou- Tos and Wood (1990) cover the general analysis algorithms. ‘The general analysis algorithms can be used for model cali bration only when the number of unknowns is equal to the umber of equations, and the measurements/observed data are exact, and for one loading condition at a time. The indirect echniques are based on the output error criterion, where aa ceisting estimate of the parameters i iteratively improved until the model response is sufficiently close to that of the measured ‘output. The iterative techniques for calibration, based on anal ysis models, proposed by Rahal et al. (1980), Walski (1983), have (1988); and the optimization techniques presented by Coulbeck (1984, 1985), Ormsbee (1989), Lansey and Basnet (1991), Datta and Sridharan (1994), and Liggett and Chen (1994) are some of the indirect techniques. in this study. the weighted-least-squares (WLS) approach using the Gauss-Newion minimization technique is presented {or the estimation of parameters in water distribution networks, similar 10 that of Datta and Sridharan (1994). This technique is found w be very robust, yielding convergence in varied Situations and. with mixed unknown parameters of widely Yarying magnitudes, even when the inidal parameter estimates Jiffer from the true values by orders of magnitude. ‘The ad- Vantages of this method are listed by Datla and Sridharan (1994). In this paper: (1) The Tewarson-Chen (1985) method. is used for analysis (simulation) of network, wherein the node continuity equations aze solved only once ‘and the iterations "Se Enge, Tata Consuling Engineers, 7/1, St Marks RA, Banglore 369 001, Indi aot, Dept of Civ. Engrs Indian Inst of Sei, Bangalore $60 012, India. Deputy Caf. age. (RAD), Tata Consulting Engineers, THI, St Mae's Ré, Bangalore 560 00 India ‘Note Discssion open until Novembet {, 1996. To extend the clesing date ene month. 2 sien fequest ust be filed withthe ASCE Manages ‘tilounala The manuscript fortis paper was submited fr review 286 foasble publication on May 9, 1993. Tas pape i part ofthe Journal Of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol 122. No, 3, Mayi Yena, 1996. ASCE, ISSN 0723-9486960003-0157-0164/54.00 + $50 pet page. Paper No. 1087S. WLS MEtHop FoR PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN WATER DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS By P. V. Niranjan Reddy,’ K. Sridharan,’ and P. V. Rao,’ Member, ASCE ‘AwsTRAcT:: The weighted-least-squares method besed on the Gauss-Newion minimization technique is used for parameter estimation in water distribution networks jams cosfii "The measurements considered are: nodal pressure heads, pipe flows, head loss jows, An important feature of the study isa detailed consideration of the influence ar ediferent choice of weights on parameter estimation, for error-free dala, noisy data, and noisy data which {clude bad data. The method is applied to three different networks including a real-life problem. "The parametets considered are: element resistances ts, pump specifications) and consumptions (fr single ace performed on the nonlinear loop/path equations; (2) the ‘ewarson-Chen method is extended to calculate the sensitivity coefficients without any additional network solutions; and (3) Gifferent types of weights and role of weights on parameter estimation for error-free data, noisy data, and noisy data with bad measurements are discussed with parameter confidence limits, The scope of the model presented includes: (1) The estimation of parameters such 2s pipe roughness coefficient (God. individual and group resistances, pump specifications, ‘and consumptions; (2) option to consider different types of measurements (Je, heads, head losses, pipe flows, and con- Sumptionsiinflows), different sots and number of measure- meats in each loading condition, with modifications in the net- ‘ork configuration due 1 inclusion or exclusion of some pipes jn eech loading condition by way of operating the valves on these pipes: and (3) option to treat the unknown consumption directly as an unknown in the analysis algorithm or a8 a pa- rameter in the estimation algorithm. In the former case, nodal heads at specified locations are t0 be given (Bhave 1990) MATHEMATICAL MODEL. ‘Statement of the Problem “The objective is to estimate the set of unknown resistance parameters R; (i= 1, -.., NUR), where NUR = total number Of unknown resistance parameters, and the set of unknown Consumption parameters for each loading case, Cy (L = |. "NLC and i= 1, ..., NC‘), where NLC = number of igading conditions: and NC* = number of consumption pa- rameters in the Lih loading condition. In this study, the un- Known parameters are estimated by comparing the computed values of selected network variables with the corresponding Observed values for different loading conditions using the WLS error criterion. ‘Objective Function ‘The objective function is given by BaD D wise - Sal o where S$, = observed value of ith variable for loading condi- tion £; $i = computed value of ith variable for loading con- dition L; W = weight associated with ith observation for load- ing condition L; and M(L) = number of measurements corresponding to loading condition L. ‘The variable $ may be f nodal piezometric head (H), head loss along a pipe (fi). @ fhadal consumpticw/inflow (C), or a pipe flow ()- Gauss-Newton Algorithm In the present study, the Gauss-Newton algorithm is used for solution of the WLS minimization problem. The simulta- JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING ANO MANAGEMENT / MAYAIUNE 1999/157 neous linear equations for parameter conetions Ap, (I= 1 NUP) inany outer of parameter Heraion ar dered ‘acd onthe acoder Tuo sere approach. Using the Ty Jor series expansion for S$ in (1) and taking the partial deriv- ation of & with respott fo the comecion fo parameters py the resung equations forthe minimization of & (Data and Sicharan 1994) ae SPSS ator]: 2 [g 2 Son = b= 3 ast wi pst Peo De eee NUP : ® where NUP = total number of unknown parameters including Consumpsions; $4 = computed value of Sf coesponding te or he fatal tal Values Of parameters or the values obtained fim tho previous Heron; nd (95:p.) = sensitivity coat ficient of fh measurement in Lth loading condion with re spect to parameter Eq. (2) presen NUP linea equations in the unknowns, Ap, (1=,.. NUP). Th next approximation for the parameter values is given by pits pt dph te... NOP ° where k = iteration number, The iteration procedure is contin- ued until the specified convergence criterion is met. si Evaluation of Sensitivity Coefficients ‘The sensitivity coefficients are calculated based on an ad ‘aptation of the Tewarson-Chen (1985) algorithm. The advan- tages of the Tewarson-Chen algorithm are as follows: (1) Gen- crates an initial solution, which satisifes nodal continuity from ‘any starting solution unlike the loop formulation; (2) provides pipe-flow corrections instead of loop-flow corrections, which is helpful for computing sensitivity coefficients; and (3) re- guies solution of a smaller number of simultaneous equations in each simulation iteration unlike Newtonfinear methods based on full set equations. ‘The algorithm for one loading condition only is presented for notation simplicity. Consider a network of NJ junctions (nodes) and NED edges (pipe and pump elements). For the analysis problem, the basic variables are Q and C. The flow in network should satisfy the node continuity (F: linear equa- tions) and the loop/path continuity (f: nonlinear equations) under steady-state condition, and these are given by Fy, ©) =0; My = Nuc a) SQ. R) = 0; NL + NP @ where NL = number of loops; NP = number of paths; and NUC = number of unknown consumptions corresponding 10 ‘as many specified heads (usually at reservoirs), which are solved directly from the analysis model. Let p, be the param ler of interest. Taking the total derivatives of (4) with respect to ps and expanding the same gives HS 6 BF Uw, op Et 8Q, apy ap St 8Q; apr which may be writen in a mati form as ae] [20] __[ae], [at] [20] __[ae (eal (S]--1E) (al [R]--15] “The first tem onthe lfhand side of (6) isthe Jacobian ma- tie and the second term Gences a column vector of the sn Silvis of flows with rpost to parameter py For each per famctee the ighthandsde vector in () is eteulted. I he resisiance is the parameter p,, (@F//@p) becomes zero as the reaianes term docs nt oct expety ne node conmty (Sap) equations; (@f/9p) # 0 for those loop/path equations in which the resistance p, occurs. Ifthe consumption is the paremeter 1. (parameter consumption is different from NUC unknowa consumption refered to earlier), then (@f/9p) becomes za, and the vector (3F¥@p) contains only one nonzero clement ither +1 or —1) comesponding to the node in which the ‘consumption p, occurs. The Jacobian can be partitioned as ar at [3] {C.D} [3] (es fe where the sizes of matrices C, D, fi, and fie are (NT — NUC) X GN ~ NOC); (NI ~ NUC) X (NL + NP); (NL + NP) X (NI ~ NUC); and (NL + NP) X (NL + NP), respec tively. Q! and Q* refer to the flows associated with node and Toopipath equations, respectively. Eq. (6) now becomes aby @] fae c p]| |__| a [g 3] ag | =~] a a a) Lap, By element row operation, () i rasaformed ino ag’ | OF 2g ot [Fe Sd-o]] 2 = me 9 fe — feC"'D] | ag? at 1 9F ap ap, fC OP, o) Defining Esc’ an) and =e - RC") a then, ftom 6) I gy IF o[2]--[Z-eZ] oe and ag" 1-1 aE ag” [)-fes]-(F] ” As the matrices C, (C and are stationary matrices fr a pacular loading condtion), and G are the same as those ‘Uiained in the analysis problem, the G-' obtained through the Gausian elimination metiod in the last inner iteration of the analysis algorithm, and C~' and E, which are available from the analysis algorithm, ae direcly used forte calculation of the senstvitycoetcens from (12) and (13). ‘Once the sensitivity coefficients of flow with respect to & parameter pare Known elulaton of the required seasiviy ocfeiens for heads Head lowes, and consumption is Stnlghtforvand. The requlred equation are given a Tllows + Calculating sensitivity coefficients for head at node j If the head at a reference node is H, (a reference node ‘can be any fixed head node), then the head loss between reference node and the node.j under consideration is given, by the path equation SQ, R) =H, ~ aay ‘The derivative of H, 2h, a respect tp, i given by 4,8 uo ap ie 2 40; ap, teed 158 / JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT /MAYIUUNE 1998 ® 6, 10) i 2) 13) for the the ay ode M4) 19) ‘The sensitivity coefficients on the right-hand side of (15) ace already obtained from the solution of (12) and (13). «+ Calculating. sensitivity coefficients for consumption/in- flow at node j From the node continuity equstion, the consumption at, node j is 2 dQ as) where 8, and hy = coefficients having values 1, —1, oF 0 depending on direction of flow and pipe connectivity. The derivative of G, with respect to py is 2g, ” 8p 86, an Calculating sensitivity coefficients for head loss of pipe é "The head loss in the ith pipe is given by y= ROt as) where R= resistance of ith pipe. The derivative off with respect to pris a oe BB page 22: Pe 97 B+ age a ap a op 7 op © 2% eR Eno 2) fi aR, paket en If the Hazen-Williams equation is used for pipe resistance, and if p, @ where Cyy, = Hazen-Williams coefficient of ith pipe. Parameter Estimation for Group Resistance Normally, the data available rarely justify the calibration of resistance parameters for all individual pipes separately Hence, the case where pipes can be grouped together to reduce the number of resistance parameters plays an important role in estimation. In this ease, a correction factor k, is treated as, the parameter for group i, where the Car value of pipe j in ‘group (is given by kCuyy Where Cy, = assumed value of Cine for the pipe. ‘To obtain the required pump specification (ie, flow (Q) and head (h)], the resistance of the element on which the pump is located isto be treated as a parameter. A negative value of the parameter resistance obtained at the end of the iterative pro- cess confirms the requirement of a pump. The analysis model at the end of parameter estimation would provide Q and h values: Estimation of Parameter Uncertainty Information concerning the uncertainty in parameter esti ‘mates is contained in the @ posteriori parameter covariance ‘matrix. Individual parameter confidence limits can be directly determined from the WLS algorithm (Yeh 1986). In this study, the 95% confidence interval value is used to quantify the un~ certainty in parameter estimates. It must be noted that the si nificance of the uncertainty band for parameter estimates is related to the choice of weights, and this aspect is discussed further in the section on application. CHOICE OF WEIGHTS ‘The difference between computed and observed values of the variables is mainly due to two reasons: (1) The conceptual ‘model may not be an exact representation of the real system; and (2) there may be measuiement errors. In subsequent dis- cussions, it is presumed that the model is a correct represen- tation of the real system, and only measurement errors are considered. The use of a proper choice of weights has the following advantages: (1) It normalizes various kind of mes surements; (2) gives better weightage to relatively accurate ‘meaturemens; and (3) eliminates or suppresses bad measure- ‘ments. Kool et al. (1987) stated that the ordinary Teast squares (OLS) method would generally not lead to optimal parameter estimates, but it would provide unbiased estimates of the error covariances, and would consider the inverse of the error co- variance matrix as the weighting matrix. Mishra and Parker (1989) used the estimated ratios of measurement error vari- lances from an empirical procedure given by Kool and Parker (1988), An alternative choice of weights is studied by Sekhar et al. (1992) by varying the exponent n in the following: The choice of n= 0 ‘n= 2s similar to that used by Mishra and Parker (1989). All these studies are in the area of parameter estimation in ground. ‘water. Powell et al. (1988) have proposed the inverse of the covariance matrix of measurement errors as the weighting ma- trix. Lansey and Basnet (1991) have used different scaling factors as weights for different types of measurements. Datta, and Sridharan (1994) used weights for head and consumption ‘measuremenis, based on an intuitive choice of normalizing scales for the two types of measurements suitable for the par- ticular problem considered, In this study, the influence of different choice of weights is investigated and a systematic procedure is given forthe selec tion of suitable weights. Three types of measurement data are ‘considered here: (1) Error-free data; (2) noisy data (small er rors); and (3) noisy measurements with some bad data (gross feror). It is assumed that the errors are normally distribute. For noisy data, wo types of errors are considered, namely, type A—error not dependent on the measured value (e.g, standard error of 1 m for head measurements, irrespective of the value of head), and type B—error directly dependent on the measured value (eg, standard error of 0.020, where Q is the measured flow). In the case of type A, the error statistics are directly 2 function of fixed variance; whereas in the case Of type B, error statistics are not only a function of variance, ‘but also a function of the magnitude of the measured value. In subsequent discussions, type A is referred (0 as fixed-type cermor, and type B as percentage-type error Different types of weights considered in the present study are discussed as follows. ‘Weights based on measured values nef) w-[] Es If the head is the measurement, then S, is the pressure head at that node and not the piezometrie head, which depends on the choice of datum. The power 7 [in (24) and in similar equa- JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT / MAYMUNE 1996/ 159 tions, subsequently] is varied from 1.0 to 2.0. It is noted that the objective function will be dimensionless if n = 2.0, ‘Weights based on the mean of measured values: we[af os where Sf = mean of the same kind of measurements in loading condition £; and WS = constant for all measurements of the same kind in losding condition L. This weight is useful for ‘measurements having fixed-type error ‘Weights based on error variance: For fixed-type error Wie la] 26) For percentage-type error “fal lal en where of = standard deviation of measurements of the same kind for loading condition L. In general, the standard deviation ‘of measurement errors (G3) will not be known a priori, An empirical approach is used here to find the error variances and ‘use them in turn in a two-step parameter estimation procedure. In the first step, in the WLS method, weights based on the measured values only {(24) or 25), depending on the type of error] are applied. If r* is the residual vector at the end of the first step for the same kind of measurements ia loading con- dition L, the associated value of oF is obtained from eee) oy w 28) where N* = number of measurements of the same kind for loading condition Z. The residue r is the actual difference be- ‘ween the measured and computed value in the ease of fixed- \ype error, and the percentage difference between the measured ‘and computed values in the case of percentage-type errors. In the second step, of values obtained from (28) are used in the WLS procedure with the weights determined from (26) or 7) leratively modified weights: Am iteratively reweighted algorithm is proposed by Powell et al. (1988), where the inverse of the covariance matrix is Used a8 the weight in the beginning of the Newton-Raphson Procedure for calculation of the least-squares solution, If the Uifference between the observed and computed variable is found to be more than a given limit, then the weight for the measurement is revised and is inversely proportional to the 160/ JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT / MAYMUNE 1996 residual itself. An alternative reweighted scheme, which does ‘ot require information on measurement error statistics is used in this study. The WLS approach with stationary weights based ‘on (24) or (25) (depending on the type of error) is used for @ specified number of Gauss-Newton iterations (say, five to ten). After this stage, in each subsequent iteration, the modified weights used are as follows, For measurements having fixed-type error: le = and for measurements having percentage-type error: a) fae] lz] [a5] Gi were m alto varies from 1.0 0 20, liken tn (29) and (20), the mean values are taken for each kindof measrsnen Gop, trey The forgoing appronch has poo eeleenee ty dealing with bad dts det n addin to ny data. Th this metho, sometimes i is peasble ti We eaidoe nay become zero vey close wo er, which wl ed to sarang ‘an infinite weight o that measurement. To avoid such a case, the following condition is imposed on weights Wer if|s.-s[se en where € weight. specified small value; and P a specified large APPLICATION AND RESULTS The algorithm described is applied to three different net- Works. The problems considered are: (1) Hypothetical problem With error-free data on network 1; @) real-life network with hypothetically generated measurements, but with noise, and inclusion of bad measurements on network 2; and (2) real-life problem on network 3. Network 1 “This network is taken from the literature Pudur and Liggett 1992}; however, the problem is modified for parameter est- mation, and is shown in Fig. 1. Two loading conditions are considered, and heads are measured st nodes 3 and 5 (Hy = 14 m and H, = 28.5 m) for loading condition 1, and at 2 and 6 (if, = 18.4 m and Hg = 12.1 m) for loading condition 2. For both the loading conditions, low is measuted in pipe 7 (Gy = 28.3 and 126 Lis). The resistance of pipe 3, and con. sumptions at nodes 4 and 7 in both the loading conditions are considered as parameters. This, the total number of parameters to be estimated is five. Apart from these parameters, com smption at node 1 is made an unknown, The weight given in G5) is used with n= 2. The assumed Cv value of pipe 3 is 100, andthe consumption parameter vals in loading con. dition I are: Cy = 100, and Cy = ~100LIs; and in loading condition 2 they are: C, = 10, and C; = 100L/8. The problem it studied for thee diferent cases with respect (0 te limits fon corrections to the parameter values as given (Datta and Sridharan 1994) in the following: -02 = =05 a ” {nthe first ease, no limits are imposed on both resistance and consumption corrections: in the second case, limits are im. posed on both: whereas in the third case, limits are imposed only on the correction to the resistance parameter. The est ‘mated parameter values match exactly with the true values of the problem at the end of convergence. Fig. 2 shows the con- vergence characteristics of the objective function. Oscillations does ised ased en). fied (29) nets Jem. vith and life 32) and sed sti ‘of eeers Without limits on Ake. ric itu los, ee SEITE With limite. onion 0 5 10 15 20 Iteration number FIG. 2. Convergence Characteristics (Network 1) Value of Objective Function FIG. 3, Network? ‘observed in various test problems. In subsequent problems, the limits are applied only on corrections to resistance parameters. Network 2 ‘This network belongs to a section of the water distribution system of Banglore city in India (Niranjan Reddy 1994), The network is shown in Fig. 3. It has 57 nodes and 73 pipes of sizes varying from 75 to 400 mm. The pipe lengths vary from. 10 to 1,100 m. Due to space constraints, the pipe character- istics and nodal data are not presented. The parameters 10 be ‘estimated are individual resistances of pipes 3, 14, 22, 26, 49, 50, and 60, The head and flow measurements are corrupted by'random errors with a standard deviation of 1 m for heads and 2% for flows. Table 1 presents the tue and measured heads and the noise, in meters; and Table 2 presents the tue ‘and measured flows and the noise, in percentage of true flow. In this network, four different cases are studied, and they are a8 follows. Case I In this case, weight based on the mean of measurements {(25)] and weight based on measurement itself [(24)] are used for head and flow measurements, respectively. The conver- ‘pence characteristics of the objective function for different values are shown in Fig. 4, and convergence characteristics of the resistance of pipe 49 are shown in Fig. 5. The objective function values cannot be quantitatively compared with each other asthe dimensions are not the same for different values. In Fig. 5, a diverging trend may be seen for m = 1.0 and 1.25. ‘The same is true even in the case of pipe 14. However, all TRB. Wend Memmurerrente ars Mote, other resistances showed convergence. [tis also observed that Node] Tuo | Measured | Noise the parameter values are almost the same for n = 1.75 and n ode | olevatin | value | valuo | (columns 4s) = 20. If m = 2.0, dimensional homogeneity can be achieved umber | cm) | cm) | tm (m) m | @ | @ @ © Z a1 | 900] sass | —sas.co 00 =, a | 500 | Saas | 2640 160 3 to | 5m | sas | Sass -029 é | 1s | ax0 | 50728 | ooss7 19 | te | aso | 0573 | 905.0 083 g at | a8 | Sogi9 | soss2 083 3 i | sao | soso | Soee <7 Z10~ | a0 | S090 | 90736 039 2 ar | ao | Sas39 | ooses -138 7 a _|_ 0 _| Sosio | 0021 on 3 TABLE 2._ Flow Measurements and Nose gy 3 10 5 a see] paar iteration number Fipe vaive ot FIG. 4. Convergonce Characteristics of Objective Function number ws) (us) aise (Caae'i of Network 2) o @ © @ 10 a ~4er 022 26 =266 =2%4 301 2 50 -19%6 -1965 055 2 Sa 556 238 g 20 alla anes 135 é a =398 A408 135, = © eas én 240 3 6 157 383 on e 2 053 ost sit : 3 3618 3635 022 2 are observed during initial iterations in the frst case, and in the second case, the process of convergence is very slow, but smooth, In the third case, where limits are applied only on corrections to the resistance parameter, the convergence pro- cess is smooth and fast. The same phenomenon is generally 0 5 10 15 IReration number FIG. 5. Convergence Characteristics of Resistance of Pipe 43 (Case of Network 2) ‘JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT / MAYIJUNE 1998/161 TABLE 3. Estimated Guy Values with Confidence Limits CASE 1 (n=) (CASE 2 ‘CASE S/CASE 4 Percent | contdence Lim Percent | Confidence Lime Porcent Pipe | Estimated | arcor in | Comtidenee Limts | ceimatod | error in |_Cemfidence Limits _| estimated | error in rumber| value | estimate | Maximum | Minimum | value | estimate | Maximum | Minimum | value | estimate 1 @ @ @ © @ @) ® (19) on 3 963 a7 964 36 13.1 852 1013 13 4 238 262 Ba 256 ~ — 972 28 2 995 05, 995 oa 1003 989 997 03 2 | 97 97 107 107 usa | 1040 und mi 49 96.6 34 947 53 1054 860 952 4a 30 | 1000 oo 1064 100.9 00 3052 933 1023 23 oo. 974 26 106.0 973, 27, EY 95.1 973 27 “Upper and lower bounds of Cy ats 95% confidence interval are below 50 or above 150. TABLE 4 Estimated Cyy Values and Confidence Limits (Net- work 3) CASES CASE 2 sumaneg|_22nidonce Lmits_| esimgagg] Contin Units ‘roup] value [Maximum] Minmom | vals [Maximum] Minimum o}| @ | @ | o | o | o | a 1 as | mao | toa7 [tise [asta | soos ref SP | REE | US | oie | ied | amo 2 | ame | aaa | sae | ims | isso | ine 3 | TSP] UE | UR | oma | zo | oss 3° | sae | sora | ose | toss | toso | toro a Lee Le an) “Lower and oper bounds of Ce a8 955 confidence inewval ae Below 50 0 shove 150 in the objective function, which is an added advantage. Hence, in further study, n = 2.0 is used. Case 2 In this ease, weight based on standard deviation [(26)], and ‘weight based on standard deviation and measured value [(27)] _ are used for head and pipe flow measurements, respectively. ‘The standard deviations can be taken either from a priori knowledge (oy = 1 m and og = 2% of the flow) or from the results of case I for n = 2 (¢y = 1.05 m and og = 0.84%). It is observed that the results in both cases are nearly the same. lence, the results are presented only for the second case, and these results are compared with case I results in Tabie 3. ‘Though the resistances are treated as the parameters, the true, estimated values and confidence limits are presented in terms of Cyw in Table 3, for easy reference, The true Cyy value is 100 for all the pipes. Where the lower and upper bounds of Cire at @ 95% confidence interval are below 50 or above 150, they are indicated by * in Tables 3 and 4, as the uncertainty band for such cases is only of qualitative value, indicating less reliability for the associated parameter estimates. Even though the estimated parameter values are nearly the same for cases 1 and 2 (Table 3), the confidence limits are considerably im- proved for the resistance of pipes 26, 49, and 60 in case 2. ‘The results in Table 3 show that the estimate of Cyy for pipe 14 is poor, with an associated large uncertainty band. Case 3 In the first five iterations, weight based on the measured values ((25) and (24)] are used. Thereafter, iterative weights based on (29) and (30) are used for head and pipe flow mea- ‘urements, respectively, with = 2.0 and m = 2.0. The esti- nated Cyyy values are presented in Table 3. In this case, all the estimated parameters are good, including those for pipe 14, There is a moderate error in the pipe 26 estimate, which ‘occurred in cases 1 and 2 also. The confidence interval in this case is a reflection of the method of assigning weights rather than a true indication of the uncertainty in the estimates, hence the same is not discussed. Case 4 ‘The presence of bad data among the observations processed by @ least-squares estimator is, as a rule, detrimental to the estimators’ performance, usually resulting in poor estimates. ‘Therefore, there is a need to eliminate/suppress the abnormally erroneous measurements. The approach used here is to penal- ize the largest residuals (S, — S,), so that the potential bad data have a reduced influence on the final estimates. The WLS ‘method with iteratively modified weights can elegantly handle this case. To illustrate the application, gross errors are intro- duced in the head measurement at node 3, and in the flow ‘measurement of pipe 20. The actual head and flow values are 924.9 m and 41.1L/s, respectively, whereas the measured data considered are 934.9 m and 141.1245, respectively. Thus the error of 10 mis introduced in the head measurement and about 280% is introduced in the flow measurement. In the frst five Parameter iterations, weights based on the mean of measure- ‘ments [(25)] and measurement itself [(24)} are used for head and flow measurements, respectively. In later iterations, iter ative weights as pee 29) and (30) are used. These weights are stabilized in the process of convergence. The final weight ob- tained for the bad data in head is two orders smaller than the next higher weight for head measurements, and three orders smaller for flow measurements. The estimated parameters match very well with case 3, where bad data were not present. Network 3 ‘The network is the same as that considered by Datta and Sridharan (1994) for the transmission-main system of Banga lore city in India, with some minor modifications in data. The network details are given in the literature. Two different cases are studied in this network, and the details are as follows. Case 1 Three operating conditions (OC) are considered. The total number of measurements are: nine head measurements (hree in each OC) and nine nodal consumption measurements (in OC Ill). The parameters considered are the three Hazea-Wil- Tiams coefficients associated with three groups of pipes and the initial assumed valves are 100. In their study, Datta and Sridharan (1994) used intuitively assigned weights, whereas in this study, the two-step procedure of parameter estimation dis- cussed in item 3 of the choice of weights is adopted. The Standard deviations obtained atthe end of the fist step (o, 0.76, 0.54, 0.40 m for OC 1, I, and III, respectively; oe = 8.1% for OC II only) re used for weights in the second step. 162 / JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT /MAY/JUNE 1996 1 “he parameter estimatés with uncertainty bands are presented in Table 4, and compare well with those of Datta and Sri- haran (1994). Case 2 In this case, each parameter group of case 1 is split into two subgroups comprising trunk mains and pipes other than trunk mains, thus making a total of six groups. The standard devi ations obtained at the end of the first step are: oy = 0.35, 0.36, and 0.76 m for OC I, If, and Il, respectively; and ae = 5.3% for OC III only. The estimated parameter values and their con- fidence limits at the end of the second step are given in Table 4, Two aspects of the results are of interest. The Cuw values of trunk mains (groups 1, 2, 3) are higher than those for smaller mains (groups 1a, 23, 3a), as expected. The confidence ‘bands are larger than those for case 1, and are probably as- sociated with the reduction in the redundancy factor defined a the ratio of the number of measurements to the number of parameters. The parameter estimate appears 10 be poor for ‘group 3a, as revealed by the confidence limits. It is relevant that the command reservoir for group 3a pipes is at node 72 vide Fig. 2 of Datta and Sridharan (1994)], for which the ‘consumption measurement is not available, CONCLUSIONS ‘The weighted-least-squares method based on the Gauss- Newion minimization technique is used for parameter esti ration in water distribution networks. The parameters consid- ered are element resistances and consumptions. The model presented can handle multiple loading conditions with a com bination of different types of measurements, different sets and number of measuremens for each loading condition. The Te- ‘warson-Chen (1985) algorithm was extended for the compu- tation of sensitivity coefficients without any addtional net ‘work solution. It was found that the application of limits to the corrections in the Gauss-Newton iteration is required only for resistance parameters and not for consumption parameters ‘An important feature of the-study {is @ detailed consideration ofthe influence ofthe different choice of weights on parameter estimation for error-free data, noisy data, and noisy data that includes bed measurements. A value of n= 2 is recommended in (24), (25), 29), and (30) to make the objective funetion 1)] dimensionally homogeneous (when different kinds of reasurement are used), and for beter convergence. In the ab- sence of error statistics, @ two-step procedure was recom- mended for problems with noisy measurements, and an iter tively reweighted scheme was recommended for problems with noisy measurements, including bad measurements. For a field problem, initially iteratively modified weights can be used. ‘The results show that bad measurements, if any, ean be identified and removed from the input data, and the problem can be solved again using weights based on error variance to obtain the parameter confidence limits. APPENDIX. REFERENCES have, P. R_ (1988). Calibrating water distribution network models.” J. Envir. Bxgrg., ASCE, 114(1), 120-136 Bhave, PR (1990). "Rules for solvability of pipe networks.” Jadian Water Works Assoc., Bombay India, (Jan-Mar), 7-10. Boulos, P.F, and Wood, D. J. (1990). “Explicit calculation of pipe- network parameters." J. Hyd Enprg., ASCE, 116(11), 1329-1344, Coulbeek, B. (1984). “A computer program for calibration of water dis- twbotion systems.” J. Inst. ater Engrs. and Sci, 38(1), 7980, CCoulbeck, B. (1985). “An application of hierarchial optimization inca: ‘bration of large-scale water networks,” Opiimal Control Applications and Methods, Nol. 6, 31~42. Data, R.S. Ny and Sridharan, K, (1994), distribution systems by least squares ‘Mgnt, ASCE, 120(4), 405-422. "J. Water Resour. Ping. and Gofiman, and Rodeh, M, (1981). “Loop equations with unknown pipe characteristics.” J. Hyde Dis, ASCE, 107(9), 1047-1060, Kool, J.B. and Parker, J.C. (1988). “Analysis of the inverse problem {for wansient unsatursed flow." Water Resour: Re, Vol. 24, 817-830, ‘Kool, J.B. Parker, J.C, and Van Genuehten, M. T. (1987), "Parameter ‘estimation for unsaturated Now and trnsport models—a review.” J. Hydra, Arosterda, The Netherlands, Vol. 91, 255-293. Lansey, K. E, and Basnet, C. (1991). “Parameter estimation for water

    También podría gustarte