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Quantifying Non-Recurrent Delay

Using Probe-Vehicle Data


Jacob Douglas Keaton Brashear (2018)

I. METHODOLOGY

This chapter enumerates the overall processes that were conducted in quantifying non-

recurrent delay using probe-vehicle data. This chapter will overview the data sources used for

this study. It identifies the impact boundary, calculating delay, and background speed profile. It

will also detail the process of how the impact zone and VHD are calculated.

The researcher used a correlational research design. Correlational research is a type of

nonexperimental research in which the researcher measures two variables and assesses the

statistical relationship between them with little or no effort to control extraneous variables. It is

important to view the strength of correlation to discover which factors are strongly related to

each other

ANOVA is conducted to determine whether a categorical variable or a

pair of categorical variables such as injury and weather have a significant effect in

explaining continuous variables such as VHD, duration, and queue length. ANOVA can

also determine if the relationships are linear or non-linear as well as detect if categorical

variables interact with each other.


The ANOVA procedure is based in using a linear model as shown below.

𝑦𝑦 = 𝛽𝛽1𝑥𝑥1 + 𝛽𝛽2𝑥𝑥2 + 𝛽𝛽3𝑥𝑥3 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖

Where:

y is the response variable

βi is the coefficients

x1 is the value of the first categorical variable (0 or 1)

x2 is the value of the second categorical variable (0 or 1)

x3 is the value of the interaction term between the x1 and x2 variable (0 or 1)

εi is the error term

II. PROCEDURE

Before diving into deeper modeling and analysis, it is important that the relationships

between the variables be explored. The reason being is because understanding how the

factors relate to each other will assist in interpreting the results of the models for the

queue length, duration, and VHD. To begin, a high-level look at the continuous variables

in the analysis will be conducted using Pearson correlation coefficients. Next, the

relationship between the continuous and categorical variables will be studied using

ANOVA analysis. Finally, the findings from the Correlation and ANOVA analyses will

be explored deeper by using Welch’s t-test to examine how the categorical variables

interact with each other when comparing the means of VHD as well as the other

continuous variables.
III. REFLECTION

Civil engineers play a huge role in road congestion, the enhancement of traffic flow,

construction of roadways, and installation of road signs and lights, civil engineers also work hard

to improve traffic calming in residential areas. This includes neighborhood traffic control, traffic

mitigation, neighborhood traffic safety plans, traffic abatement, roadway pavement marking, and

signing plans. Believe it or not, these are efforts taken to ensure that residents are safe in their

neighborhood–including children and the elderly. Mathematics in the Modern World teaches us

the real-life applications of mathematical formulas and strategies. This is very essential

especially for us future engineers, because engineering is the application of mathematics and

physics in the real world to make the lives of the people more convenient.

IV. BIBLIOGRAPHY

Brashear, J. D. (2018). Quantifying Non-Recurrent Delay

Using Probe-Vehicle Data. University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky

Price, P.C., Jhangiani, R. & Chiang I.A. (n.d.). Research Methods In Psychology. Retrieved from

https://opentextbc.ca/researchmethods/chapter/correlational-research/
Improving Transportation Investment Decisions
Through Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
Comparative LCCA of Bridges
Marco Ditrani (2009)

I. METHODOLOGY

This chapter enumerates the overall processes that were conducted in improving

transportation investment decisions through life-cycle cost analysis. This chapter will overview

the data gathered for the life-cycle cost analysis. It provides the information and documentation

necessary for successful public dialogue. LCCA also offers sophisticated methods to determine

and demonstrate the economical merits of the selected alternative in an analytical and fact-based

manner.

The researcher used a correlational research design. Correlation research is looking for

variables that seem to interact with each other, so that when you can see one changing, you have

an idea of how the other will change. This often entails the researcher using variables that they

can't control.

The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient is a measure of the strength of

the linear relationship between two variables. It is referred to as Pearson's correlation or simply

as the correlation coefficient. If the relationship between the variables is not linear, then the

correlation coefficient does not adequately represent the strength of the relationship between the

variables.
Pearson's correlation coefficient between two variables is defined as the covariance of the

two variables divided by the product of their standard deviations:

𝐶𝑂𝑉(𝑋, 𝑌)
𝜌𝑋, 𝑌 =
𝜎𝑋 𝜎𝑌

Societal costs

The user costs due to delay:

𝑇
𝐿 𝐿 1
𝐿𝐶𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑟 , 𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑦 = ∑ ( − ) 𝐴𝐷𝑇𝑡 ∙ 𝑁𝑡(𝑟𝐿𝑤𝐿 + 1 − 𝑟𝐿 𝑤𝐷) ∙
𝑣𝑟 𝑣𝑛 (1 + 𝑟)𝑡
𝑡=0

Where L : length of affected roadway

𝑣 : traffic speed during bridge work activity

𝑣 : normal traffic speed

𝐴𝐷𝑇 : average daily traffic (i.e: cars per day at time t)

𝑁 : number of days of road work at time t

𝑟 : amount of commercial traffic

𝑤 : hourly time value for commercial traffic

𝑤 : hourly time value for drivers

t : studied time interval

r : real, inflation adjusted, discount rate for costing purposes


The user costs due to the operations are estimated by:

𝑇
𝐿 𝐿 1
𝐿𝐶𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑟 , 𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 = ∑ ( − ) 𝐴𝐷𝑇𝑡 ∙ 𝑁𝑡(𝑟𝐿(𝑜𝐿 + 𝑜𝐺) + 1 − 𝑟𝐿 𝑜𝐷) ∙
𝑣𝑟 𝑣𝑛 (1 + 𝑟)𝑡
𝑡=0

Where the new notations represents

𝑜 : operating cost for the commercial traffic vehicles

𝑜 : operating cost for transported goods

𝑜 : operating cost for cars

T : time interval

The cost for the increased number of accidents is:

𝑇
𝐿 𝐿 1
𝐿𝐶𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑟 , 𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 = ∑ ( − ) (𝐴𝑟 − 𝐴𝑛 )𝐴𝐷𝑇𝑡 ∙ 𝑁𝑡 ∙ 𝐶𝑎𝑐𝑐 ∙
𝑣𝑟 𝑣𝑛 (1 + 𝑟)𝑡
𝑡=0

Where the new notations represent

𝐴 : normal accident rate per vehicle-kilometer

𝐴 : accident rate during roadwork

𝐶𝑎𝑐 : cost for each accident for the society


The risk of failure is
𝑛
1
𝐿𝐶𝐶𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑡𝑦 , 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 = ∑ 𝐾𝐻, 𝑗 ∙ 𝑅𝑗 ∙
(1 + 𝑟)𝑡
𝑗=1

Where 𝑅 : probability for a specified failure coupled to 𝐾𝐻,𝑗

𝐾𝐻, : cost of failure

II. PROCEDURE

The researcher expressed in details the different dependences of the cost items and the

service life on the total LCC and annuity cost, through the calculation of mean values, variance,

covariance and the Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The results of this Statistical Analysis

showed a high correlation between initial investment and user costs with total LCC and annuity

cost, where the Pearson’s Correlation Index reach 0,91 and 0,93 with the total LCC and 0.73 and

0.62 with the annuity cost. The inverse correlation between planning and design and total LCC,

and planning and design and annuity cost, equal respectively to -0.59 and -0.15 has no practical

meaning, but the other inverse correlation between service life and annuity cost, of -0.40 shows,

statistically, that when the service life increase, the annuity cost decrease.
III. REFLECTION

As aspiring future civil engineers, analyzing the costs of materials and structures is very

important. We need the right materials for the right structures, and the right structure for the right

place. It certainly involves critical thinking which is used in solving problems in mathematics.

Mathematics in the Modern World teaches us that math is a methodical application of matter. It

is so said because the subject makes a man methodical or systematic. Mathematics makes our life

orderly and prevents chaos. Certain qualities that are nurtured by mathematics are power of

reasoning, creativity, abstract or spatial thinking, critical thinking, problem-solving ability and

even effective communication skills. Mathematics is the cradle of all creations, without which

the world cannot move an inch.

IV. BIBLIOGRAPHY

Ditrani, M. (2009). Improving Transportation Investment Decisions

Through Life-Cycle Cost Analysis. Luleå University of Technology. Luleå, Sweden

Kowalczyk, D. (n.d.). Correlational Research: Definition, Purpose & Examples. Retrieved from

https://study.com/academy/lesson/correlational-research-definition-purpose-examples.html

Lane, D.M. (n.d.). Values of the Pearson Correlation. Retrieved from

http://onlinestatbook.com/2/describing_bivariate_data/pearson.html