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While a number of high profile infrastructure projects are already underway, Indonesia’s sheer
scale and archipelagic nature is such that delivering goods to far flung corners of the country
“The Arnott’s business in Indonesia
remains time-consuming and costly. Logistics players looking to enter Indonesia also need to
navigate issues pertaining to regulations, land ownership and restrictions on foreign investment. has grown rapidly over the past
The nascent nature of the logistics market is such that modern warehouse facilities are very five years to the extent that modern
limited meaning build-to-suit is often the only viable option for market entrants. The e-commerce logistics warehousing and supply
sector, flourishing in many global markets, remains relatively underdeveloped in Indonesia, chain management are now a critical
hampered by regulatory challenges, infrastructure and payment issues. part of our business”.
There is a clear and compelling case for logistics real estate in Indonesia despite a myriad
of challenges. In this paper, we examine the current state of the Indonesian logistics market
including its challenges and opportunities; identify the easiest route for investors; and Larry Crowley, Supply Chain Director
recommend the next steps to transform Indonesia into a world class global logistics hub. Campbell Arnott’s Indonesia
The Potential Opportunity
Southeast Asia - Economic Scale and Growth
Economic Growth and Scale
Real GDP
Recent disruptions in the commodities
markets hit the Indonesian economy hard, Indonesia 4.8% USD 2.62 trillion
GDP growth
but as government spending began to pick up
in 2015, economic growth started to improve
and Indonesia remains the largest economy 2.8%
Thailand USD 1.02 trillion
in Southeast Asia or 16th globally. GDP growth
The higher wages achievable in cities supports demand for consumer goods and, thus, the
need for more modern logistics space.
55%
Indonesia
48% 45%
Thailand
Philippines
33%
Vietnam
2012 2020
An expanding middle class and an
increasingly wealthy population should further 70% 47%
boost consumption. Below middle Below middle
Source: The Boston Consulting Group, “Asia’s Next Big Opportunity: Indonesia’s Rising Middle Class and
Affluent Consumers”, March 2013
4 JLL
Demand for logistics space driven by…
Healthy Growth in FMCGs and Retail
Urbanisation and growing wealth is already translating into growth in the FMCG sector and retail
sales.
This will increase the appeal of the logistics real estate market to a broader spectrum of modern
international logistics players.
Shoppers
are spending 41%
more per trip
today than they
did in 2013.
30%
Food & Beverage
represents 30% of
Indonesia’s total
manufacturing output.
12% Dairy
headlines/manufacturing-industry-indonesia-
contributes-18.1-to-gdp/item6527
Beverage Food spending increase
spending increase spending increase
As a result MAP – a large retail group with more than 150 brands under its umbrella in traditional
brick-and-mortar retail - is currently making an online push as is local department store
operator Matahari which forms part of the Lippo Group. Despite this, several major international
e-commerce firms including Amazon are not yet in the market. As these international groups
enter the market, we are likely to see further growth in the e-commerce sector.
d
rience
Infrastructure improvements, economic development, expe
market entrants and the expanding middle class drive this growth.
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The logistics sector is evolving…
Modern logistics remains largely underdeveloped
Indonesia lags behind other markets in the region in terms of infrastructure, legislation and open
market practices that are required to be a world class logistics hub. A market where real estate
operators can quickly support and adapt to the demands of the modern world of e-commerce
and FMCGs.
The logistics sector in Indonesia remains nascent in comparison to other markets in the
region, particularly compared to more mature markets such as Singapore and Australia.
Notwithstanding this, the growth potential is huge and there are signs of a fundamental
imbalance between available supply and demand for modern logistics warehousing space. We
expect to see the Indonesian logistics market evolve into a modern logistics hub in the same
way the sector has evolved in other markets regionally and globally.
Bureaucratic
Sustained port clearance
infrastructure times reduced
Growth in development
INDONESIA CHINA JAPAN SINGAPORE
FMCG • Ports Credit card
Industry • Roads market
• Rail becomes well
established
Warehouses are
evolving to keep up
with this demand.
Progress is being made, led primarily by international FMCG and 3PL groups. Approximately
20 years ago, the supply chain in Indonesia was fairly basic. Up until the 1990’s one of the
major international FMCG groups manually handled all goods being distributed in Indonesia.
This same group has since outsourced to an international 3PL and the logistics operation has
evolved to include one of the largest modern logistics distribution centers in the ASEAN region,
with over 90,000 sqm of fully racked GFA and located in Cibitung, Greater Jakarta.
8 JLL
Options for investors to increase as the market matures
Although the market remains immature, there are multiple avenues for investors and developers
looking to gain exposure to the logistics sector in Indonesia. Investment groups currently
showing interest in this asset class include private equity groups, sovereign wealth funds
(SWFs) and a range of Indonesian and international property development groups.
These investments are typically made via sale-and-leaseback or build to suit deals with
respective occupiers. Such occupiers may include third-party logistics service providers (3PLs),
fast-moving consumer goods groups (FMCGs) or e-commerce companies. The Indonesian
market is yet to see large scale speculative development of modern logistics warehouse space
for lease.
Indonesia’s financial regulator is trying to increase the number of REITs in Indonesia and has
proposed policy which includes tax incentives for REITs. However, this new policy has not yet
been formalised. If this does eventuate it will increase liquidity in the logistics property market
and provide an alternative exit or entry for investors.
Investors
Developers,
Private Equity,
SWFs, REITs
Increased
Liquidity
Exit Occupiers
IPO, REIT, Portfolio/ FMCGs, 3PLs,
Asset Sale E-commerce Cos
ILC Logistics
Location of The Suryacipta Industrial
Property Estate, Karawang
Regency, West Java
Building Area 8,767 sqm
Completion Date December 2014
Construction Indonakano
Contractor
Tenancy ILC is providing third
party logistics services
to automotive parts and
construction companies.
Land purchased by 3rd Party Logistics
Provider, ILC (part of Itochu Corporation
of Japan) and ILC purpose built the facility
for logistics use. ILC are currently planning
further development of modern logistics
warehouse space in the Karawang area.
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KLOG Park – Integrated Logistics Park
Location of The Cibitung, Bekasi
Property Regency, West Java
Province, Indonesia
Building Area 32,040 sqm
Completion Date December 2014
Construction PT. Sarana Steel
Contractor Engineering and CoGri
Tenancy Daikin, Campbell
Arnott’s, Frisian Flag,
Mars, Sari Husada
KLOG Park is a fully integrated logistics
park, located in Cibitung, Bekasi Regency,
West Java Province, Indonesia. KLOG Park
represents one of the first examples of a local
Indonesian 3PL developing high specification
warehousing. The warehouse was designed
by UK design firm, Ashton Smith to
international standards.
On 15th April 2016, Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC announced that they would enter into
a partnership with Mega Manunggal Property Tbk (MMP) with a view to developing up to 500,000
sqm of quality logistics warehouses in the next three years.
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 29 30 31 29 30 31 29 30 31
Source: Center of Logistics and Supply Chain Studies, Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), Asosiasi Logistik
Indonesia, Panteia/NEA, STC-Group, World Bank, “State of Logistics Indonesia”, 2013
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The Regulatory Environment is Complex
Foreign entrants to the logistics market need to navigate a complex and sometimes prohibitive
regulatory environment. Prior to 2007, the storage and transportation sector was fully open to
foreign investment. However, the government subsequently revised their negative investment
list to prohibit foreign investment in the e-commerce sector and reduced ownership capabilities
in the warehousing and distribution sector from 100% to 33%.
In January 2016, as part of a push to boost economic growth, the government announced that
restrictions on foreign participation were to be loosened again with plans to increase foreign
ownership in the transport and supporting services sector and warehouse distribution to 67%
and cold storage and e-commerce to 100%.
However, freight forwarding regulations introduced in April 2015 increased the minimum paid-up
investment for foreign freight forward entities to approximately USD 2.5 million. The regulations
also limit operations of foreign freight forwarders to five major airports and four major seaports.
Large chunks of land owned by industrial estate developers have been drip-fed to the market,
effectively limiting land availability and driving price growth. We have already started to see
a slight correction in land prices and this could help spur speculative real estate investment
activity to take-off.
800
2,000,000
700
600
1,500,000
500
IDR per sqm
Hectares
400
1,000,000
300
200
500,000
100
0 0
2015-1H
2015-2H
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Industrial Estate Land Sales Avg. Land Price Source: JLL Research
78% 96%
Singapore
Thailand
Source: World Bank Group, “The Global Findex Database 2014, Measuring Financial Inclusion around
the World”, 2014
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Proposed Government Planning will Assist Future Growth
Infrastructure Development
The government has already started to
increase infrastructure spending.
$
Infrastructure development was touted
as a priority at the beginning of 2015, but
despite a huge available budget, spending
failed to take off in the first half of the year.
A cabinet reshuffle in August 2015 boosted
Spending in
accountability and cut red tape, creating a
more business-friendly environment. As a
2015 increased by
result, spending began to gain traction in the more than 150% on
latter half of the year. Pro-market policies 2011 levels Infrastructure investment is a
and rate cuts are likely to boost investment priority for the current administration.
activity. Planned road, rail and port upgrades
should improve connectivity and lower costs
in the logistics sector. Source: Ministry of Finance, Indonesia, Directorate General of Budget, Retrieved May 19, 2016,
from http://www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id/dja/edef-seputar-list.asp?apbn=infra
220%
logistics costs.
124%
71% 60%
24
New seaports
15
New airports
Source: Bank Indonesia, “Progress of Infrastructure Initiatives under the RPJMN 2015-2019”,
Retrieved April 28, 2016, from http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/policy-document/economic-program/
Documents/Progress%20of%20Infrastructure%20Initiatives%20under%20the%20RPJMN%20
2015-2019.pdf
Smaller logistics hubs in Medan (North Sumatra), Balikpapan (East Kalimantan) and Makassar
(South Sulawesi) are likely to grow in importance as the logistics sector matures and the
government’s Sea Toll initiative is likely to improve connectivity in the outer islands.
2
3
4
19
5 17 20
14
6 22
7 23
16
15 21
18
8 9
10 11
US$ 2.93 12
24
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What will the logistics sector in Indonesia look like in 10 years?
The logistics sector in Indonesia faces significant challenges, particularly with relation to
prohibitive regulations and ailing infrastructure. Notwithstanding these challenges, the
investment case for logistics real estate in Indonesia is clear and compelling. We expect to see
the sector continue to grow and evolve rapidly as it has in many other markets in the region and
globally. This growth will be driven by the emerging e-commerce sector, strong macro-economic
fundamentals, favorable demographics and a growing number of consumers.
2025
• Unclear whether we will see the major regulatory reform which is required to open up the sector to
international players.
• International best practice would in turn help drive down logistics costs and assist in the growth of the
Regulatory Environment
sector.
• Zoning of government land parcels along well connected new toll roads would support the growth of the
sector as it has in China.
• Expect to see continued investment into the e-commerce sector from international global investors and
E-commerce e-commerce players.
• As the e-commerce sector grows so too will demand for logistics facilities.
• Indonesia’s large population offers the scale required for the sector to grow.
Demographics • Large urban population bases will provide demand for consumer products as well as the workforce
required for an expanding logistics sector.
• Infrastructure spending picked up in 2015 and there are signs that economic growth is improving.
GDP Growth • Investment led growth is likely to remain a theme going forward and many forecasts point to growth of
over 5% per annum over the next five years.
• Indonesia’s middle class will continue to expand; disposable incomes are expected to rise and demand
for consumer products should grow.
Emerging Middle Class
• Credit card and bank account penetration should also improve as a result and demand for online
shopping platforms is likely to grow.
There is a high degree of certainty that investment in logistics/e-commerce will continue for the
foreseeable future. Large local conglomerates, existing players as well as those willing to enter ‘Kamadjaja Logistics (“KLOG”) is
in the early stages will be best able to gain a strong foothold in the market. seeing increasing demand from
our MNC clients for higher quality
Increased Efficiencies Should Further Spur Demand
logistics warehousing. KLOG has met
We expect to see more rapid change over the next ten years as businesses recognise the this demand by developing a high
improved efficiency and cost savings which can be realised with modern world class supply
specification warehousing facility in
chain solutions, including modern logistics warehousing. Efficiencies are improving which
will ultimately have a positive impact on the bottom line and allow for lower prices and more Cibitung, West Java (designed by
consumption. UK firm, Ashton Smith). As the first
integrated logistics park in Indonesia,
In a sign of things to come Indonesian groups are beginning to invest in state-of-the-art logistics
KLOG Park has been designed with
warehousing, such as Kamadjaja Logistics’ KLOG Park in Cibitung, Greater Jakarta.
a focus on optimization, productivity,
As the Indonesian economy continues to grow and larger volumes of goods get distributed, we and reduction of transportation lead
anticipate that both international and local Indonesian companies will embrace the improved time, which directly lower logistics
efficiencies and cost savings that modern supply chain solutions can bring.
costs for our clients. KLOG continues
Which Locations Should be Considered? to upgrade and modernize our
At present the majority of modern logistics warehouses are located within the Greater Jakarta facilities across the archipelago in
area, and to a lesser extent Surabaya, serving as centralized distribution or mega distribution order to best serve our clients.’
centers catering to the entire archipelago. Going forward, we expect to see development of
modern logistics warehousing in logistics hubs throughout Indonesia as distributors recognise - Ivan Kamadjaja, CEO Kamadjaja Logistics
the benefit of having decentralised stock.
We are also seeing GDP growth rates in many secondary cities and outer islands exceeding
the national average, further driving consumption and demand for logistics and the associated
real estate in these areas.
Given that supply is tightly controlled in existing industrial estates, some logistics firms may
consider developing assets in less established areas with good connectivity to ports and toll
roads.
7.4%
10.3%
5% 6.1% 6.7%
18 JLL
Entering the Market
Foreign companies are permitted to set up a company and purchase property in Indonesia
under a 100% foreign-owned PMA company.
The Indonesian government is taking positive steps towards opening up Indonesia to foreign
investment. This has been reflected in recent proposed changes to the Indonesian Foreign
Investment Review Board’s (BKPM) negative investment list.
This trend is expected to continue as major occupiers (primarily FMCG, processed food and
3PL groups) recognise the improved efficiencies and cost savings which modern logistics
warehousing brings.
Project
Project financing
financing and
and cost-effectiveness
cost-effectiveness is
is a
a challenge.
challenge.
Southeast Asia Central Bank Policy Rates
Indonesia
Indonesia India
India Vietnam
Vietnam Philippines
Philippines Malaysia
Malaysia China
China Thailand
Thailand Singapore
Singapore Japan
Japan
8.0%
8.0% 7.3%
7.3% 7.0%
7.0% 4.0%
4.0% 3.0%
3.0% 2.0%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0% 1.0%
1.0% 0.0%
0.0%
Note: Additional information can be found in JLL's Asia Pacific Property Investment Guide which is available upon request.
20 JLL
Bibliography
Oxford Economics, “Global Economic Databank”, April 2016
The Boston Consulting Group, “Asia’s Next Big Opportunity: Indonesia’s Rising Middle Class and Affluent Consumers”, March 2013
Manufacturing Industry Indonesia Contributes 18.1% to GDP. (2016, February 23). Retrieved April 27, 2016, from http://www.indonesia-
investments.com/news/todays-headlines/manufacturing-industry-indonesia-contributes-18.1-to-gdp/item6527
Bank of America Merrill Lynch, “Consumer Products – Indonesia, Bricks and Clicks: e-com an opportunity for offline retailers and telcos”,
November 2015
Center of Logistics and Supply Chain Studies, Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB), Asosiasi Logistik Indonesia, Panteia/NEA, STC-Group, World
Bank, “State of Logistics Indonesia”, 2013
World Bank Group, “Doing Business 2015, Going Beyond Efficiency”, 2015
World Bank Group, “The Global Findex Database 2014, Measuring Financial Inclusion around the World”, 2014
DBS Group Research, “Indonesia Industry Focus, Indonesia Construction”, February 2016
Bank Indonesia, “Progress of Infrastructure Initiatives under the RPJMN 2015-2019”, Retrieved April 28, 2016, from http://www.bi.go.id/en/iru/
policy-document/economic-program/Documents/Progress%20of%20Infrastructure%20Initiatives%20under%20the%20RPJMN%202015-2019.pdf
Presidential Regulation No. 03/2016; Committee of Infrastructure Priorities Development Acceleration (KPPIP) and JLL Research
Ministry of Finance, Indonesia, Directorate General of Budget, Retrieved May 19, 2016, from http://www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id/dja/edef-seputar-
list.asp?apbn=infra
Statistics Indonesia (BPS), “Gross Regional Domestic Product of Regencies/Municipalities in Indonesia 2010 – 2014”, 2015
22 JLL
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