Exhibit 1

% Of US Adults
Overweight Obese Severely Obese
(25 ≤ BMI < 30) (30 ≤ BMI < 40) (BMI ≥ 40)
1999 to 2000 34 25.8 4.7
1988 to 1994 33 20.1 2.9
1976 to 1980 31.6 14.4 No Data
* US Adult population was approximately 230 million in 2008

1999-2000
Men (BMI > 25) Women (BMI > 25)
Prevalence (%) Prevalence (%)
Overall 67 62
Age (Years)
20 to 34 58 51.5
35 to 44 67.6 63.6
45 to 54 71.3 64.7
55 to 64 72.5 73.1
65 to 74 77.2 70.1
75 and older 66.4 59.6

2001
Obesity
Education Level Prevalence (%)
Less than High School 27.4
High School 23.2
Some College 21
College 15.7

2001
Income Level Obesity (%)
Less than $25,000 32.5
$25,000-$40,000 31.3
$40,000-$60,000 30.3
More than $60,000 26.8
 US Adult
Population
(millions)*
209 in 2000
185 in 1990
163 in 1980
Exhibit 2

Weight Loss Price Comparison Summary

Option

Alli

OTC drugs

Weight Watchers

Jenny Craig

Gym Membership

*Alli price comparison included initial starter pack and 90 day supply of pills
OTC drug pricing based off MSRP, however deep discounts were usually available
Weight Watchers price included monthly meeting pass and access and internet tools
Jenny Craig price included membership fees and prepackaged food (replaced ~50% - 75% of the
Average gym membership price included one-time initiation fee of approximately $125
 Comparison Summary

Description Approximate Retail Price*

Non-prescription, FDA approved weight loss drug for
overweight individuals $190 for three month supply

Herbal remedy, no FDA approval $300 for three month supply

Weight control program and meetings $120 for three months

Diet and weight control program that included $1000- $1600 for three months
prepackaged, delivered meals and support of program (includes food)
$245 for three month
Access to workout facilities membership and initiation fee

rison included initial starter pack and 90 day supply of pills

based off MSRP, however deep discounts were usually available
price included monthly meeting pass and access and internet tools
included membership fees and prepackaged food (replaced ~50% - 75% of the client’s normal food purchases)
mbership price included one-time initiation fee of approximately $125
225

per day

125

105
140

1590

40
 84

1.75

122.5
Exhibit 3

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3

Retail price $ 75.00 $ 125.00 $ 150.00
Retail gross margin $ 25.00 $ 41.67 $ 50.00
Manufacturer price $ 50.00 $ 83.33 $ 100.00
Variable cost $ 25.20 $ 25.20 $ 25.20
Manufacturer gross margin $ 24.80 $ 58.13 $ 74.80
50% 70% 75%
Method 1: Year 1 Year 2
Number of Americans with BMI between 25 and 30 78,200,000 78,200,000
x 35% actively trying to lose weight 27,370,000 27,370,000
x 15% who are comfortable using diet pills 4,105,500 4,105,500
10% who might purchase Metabocil in Year 1
adding 5% each subsequent year 410,550 615,825
plus 60% buy a second package 246,330 369,495
plus 20% of these buy a third package 49,266 73,899
Sales 706,146 1,059,219

Method 2:
Number of Americans with BMI between 25 and 30 78,200,000 78,200,000
x 12% say they will go to a doctor to request prescription 9,384,000 9,384,000
10% who might purchase Metabocil in Year 1
adding 5% each subsequent year 938,400 1,407,600
plus 60% buy a second package 563,040 844,560
plus 20% of these buy a third package 112,608 168,912
Sales 1,614,048 2,421,072

Method 3:

Ideal target (overweight females, 35-65, college-educated) 4,300,000 4,300,000

30% who might purchase Metabocil in Year 1
adding 5% each subsequent year 1,290,000 1,505,000
plus 60% buy a second package 774,000 903,000
plus 20% of these buy a third package 154,800 180,600
Sales 2,218,800 2,588,600
 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
78,200,000 78,200,000 78,200,000
27,370,000 27,370,000 27,370,000
4,105,500 4,105,500 4,105,500

821,100 1,026,375 1,231,650 unit sales

492,660 615,825 738,990 unit sales
98,532 123,165 147,798 unit sales
1,412,292 1,765,365 2,118,438 unit sales

78,200,000 78,200,000 78,200,000

9,384,000 9,384,000 9,384,000

1,876,800 2,346,000 2,815,200 unit sales

1,126,080 1,407,600 1,689,120 unit sales
225,216 281,520 337,824 unit sales
3,228,096 4,035,120 4,842,144 unit sales

4,300,000 4,300,000 4,300,000

1,720,000 1,935,000 2,150,000 unit sales

1,032,000 1,161,000 1,290,000 unit sales
206,400 232,200 258,000 unit sales
2,958,400 3,328,200 3,698,000 unit sales
TN B
Gross Margin Forecast
manufacturer gross margin per unit * forecasted unit sales

$75 Retail Price Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Using Forecast Method 1 $ 17,512,421 $ 26,268,631 $ 35,024,842
Using Forecast Method 2 $ 40,028,390 $ 60,042,586 $ 80,056,781
Using Forecast Method 3 $ 55,026,240 $ 64,197,280 $ 73,368,320

$125 Retail Price Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Using Forecast Method 1 $ 41,048,267 $ 61,572,400 $ 82,096,534
Using Forecast Method 2 $ 93,824,610 $ 140,736,915 $ 187,649,220
Using Forecast Method 3 $ 128,978,844 $ 150,475,318 $ 171,971,792

$150 Retail Price Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Using Forecast Method 1 $ 52,819,721 $ 79,229,581 $ 105,639,442
Using Forecast Method 2 $ 120,730,790 $ 181,096,186 $ 241,461,581
Using Forecast Method 3 $ 165,966,240 $ 193,627,280 $ 221,288,320
Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative
$ 43,781,052 $ 52,537,262 $ 175,124,208
$ 100,070,976 $ 120,085,171 $ 400,283,904
$ 82,539,360 $ 91,710,400 $ 366,841,600

Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative

$ 102,620,667 $ 123,144,801 $ 410,482,670
$ 234,561,526 $ 281,473,831 $ 938,246,102
$ 193,468,266 $ 214,964,740 $ 859,858,960

Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative

$ 132,049,302 $ 158,459,162 $ 528,197,208
$ 301,826,976 $ 362,192,371 $ 1,207,307,904
$ 248,949,360 $ 276,610,400 $ 1,106,441,600
TN C

Year 1
Advertising
Push (Prescriber) $ 1,000,000
Pull (DTC) $ 12,000,000
Total Advertising $ 13,000,000

Promotion
Development of support program $ 200,000
Lunch and Learn seminars $ 600,000
Production of support program $ 2,000,000
Training/promotional materials $ 500,000
Direct mailings to health care providers $ 200,000
Total Promotion $ 3,500,000

Public Relations
Medical education meetings and events $ 3,500,000
Press release/materials $ 800,000
Total Public Relations $ 4,300,000

Market research $ 600,000

Sales force allocation $ 1,491,000
Product management allocation $ 255,000

Total Budget $ 23,146,000

TN D

Assumptions:
Ongoing as %
Year 1 Ongoing of Year 1
Advertising
Push (Prescriber) $ 1,000,000 $ 1,000,000 100%
Pull (DTC) $ 12,000,000 $ 6,000,000 50%
Total Advertising $ 13,000,000 $ 7,000,000

Promotion
Development of support program $ 200,000 $ - 0%
Lunch and Learn seminars $ 600,000 $ 300,000 50%
Production of support program $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000 100%
Training/promotional materials $ 500,000 $ 500,000 100%
Direct mailings to health care providers $ 200,000 $ 200,000 100%
Total Promotion $ 3,500,000 $ 3,000,000

Public Relations
Medical education meetings and events $ 3,500,000 $ 1,750,000 50%
Press release/materials $ 800,000 $ 800,000 100%
Total Public Relations $ 4,300,000 $ 2,550,000

Market research $ 600,000 $ 600,000 100%

Sales force allocation $ 1,491,000 $ 1,491,000 100%
Product management allocation $ 255,000 $ 255,000 100%

Total Budget $ 23,146,000 $ 14,896,000

TN E
Fixed Costs

Sunk Costs Year 1 Year 2

Marketing $ 23,146,000 $ 14,896,000
Manufacturing/OH $ 1,200,000 $ 1,200,000
R&D $ 400,000,000 $ - $ -
$ 400,000,000 $ 24,346,000 $ 16,096,000
Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative
$ 14,896,000 $ 14,896,000 $ 14,896,000 $ 82,730,000
$ 1,200,000 $ 1,200,000 $ 1,200,000 $ 6,000,000
$ - $ - $ - $ 400,000,000
$ 16,096,000 $ 16,096,000 $ 16,096,000 $ 488,730,000
TN F

ROI
(5yr cumulative gross margin - 5yr cumulative fixed costs)/ 5yr cumulative fixed costs

$75 Retail Price

Using Forecast Method 1 -64%
Using Forecast Method 2 -18%
Using Forecast Method 3 -25%

$125 Retail Price

Using Forecast Method 1 -16%
Using Forecast Method 2 92%
Using Forecast Method 3 76%

$150 Retail Price

Using Forecast Method 1 8%
Using Forecast Method 2 147%
Using Forecast Method 3 126%