St

ocksa
ndFl
ows

I'
mv e77goodatinte
gralanddlHere
nti
alcalculus,
Iknowt hes
cie
nti
ficnamesofbe i
ngsanimalculous;
Inshort
,inmatt
ersveget
able,ani
mal,andmi ne r
al,
Iamt heveTmode
f lofamode rnMajor-
Ge neral.
-W. S.Gil
bert,Th
ePi
rat
eso
fPe
nza
nce
,Ac
t1.

Thisc hapteri ntr

oducest hec once
pto fstoc
ksa ndmows ,acentr
alideaind ynam-
i
c s.I
t pr
es e
nt sthec o
nc eptualandma t
h emat
icaldefi
nitionsofst
ocksandflo ws,the
diagramml ngt ool
sforma pplngnetWOrksofs t
ocksa ndflows,andcases tudie
so f
t
heus eofs toc ksandflOwsi nmode l
ingpr o
jectsincludingautomobil
er ecycli
ng
andt hec onstructi
ono fpul pa ndpape rmill
s.De veloplngfacil
it
yini dentif
ying,
ma pplng,andi nt
erpret
ingt hestockandflowne tworkso fsyst
emsisac ri
ticalskil
l
foran ymode ms ystemsmode l
er.

6J
I STOC葛 S
(S,FLOW ,ANDAccuMULATl
ON
Causalloo pdi agramsa rewonde r
fll
jytlSef
uli nma nys ituat
ions,Theya rewe l
J
I
sui
tedtor e pre
senti nte
r depende nci
esandf eedbac kpr ocesses.Theya reusede f
-
fec
tivel
ya tt hestartofamode li
ngpr oj
ecttOC aptureme ntalmod el
s-bot hthose
ofac l
ientg roupa ndyo urown. Theyarea l
souse dt oc o
mmuni cat
ether es
ultsofa
completedmode lingefo r
t.
Howe ve r
,caus alloopdi agramss uferfrom anumbe roflimitat
ionsandc an
easi
lybea bused.So meoft he searediscuss
edi nc ha pte
r5.Oneoft hemos ti
m
-

port
a n
tl i
mi tat
ionso fc aus a
ldi agr
amsi stheirina bil
ityt oc a
pturethes t
ocka nd
lo
f ws tuc
r t
ur eofs yste
ms .Stocksandflows ,
alongwi thfee dback,
a r
ethetwoc en-
tr
alconc e
pt sofd ynami cs yste
mst heory.
191
1
92 P
art
IIT
ool
sfo
rSy
st
ems
Thi
nki
ng

St ocksa r eacc umul a t

ions.The yc ha r
a cterizet hes ta
teoft hes ystema ndge ner-
atethei nf orma tionuponwhi chde cisionsa nda c ti
onsa rebas ed･St ocksgi veS ys-
temsi ne rti
aa ndpr ovidet he mwi thme mor y.St oc ksc r
eatede la
ysbya ccumul atl
ng
thedif ferenc ebe t
we ent heinf
lowt oapr oc essa ndi t
sout lowI
f Byde coupl i
ngr ates
offlow,S tocksa ret hes ou rceofdi sequi l
ibr i
umdyna micsi ns ys tems .
St ocksa ndflowsa ref ami l
iartoa l
lofus .Thei nve ntoryofama nuf act
ur l
ng
fir
mi sthes tockofpr oduc tini t
swa r
e hous es. Thenumbe rofpe opl eempl oyedby
abus ine ssi sas toc k.Theba lancei nyourc he cki nga ccounti sas tock.St ocksa re
alt
e r
edbyi nnowsa ndo ut lo
f ws .Af i
rm' si nve ntor ylSinc reasedbyt heflowofpr o-
duc t
iona ndde crea se
dbyt heflowofs hipme nts( a
ndpos siblyot he routlowsdue
f
tospoi lageors hrinka ge) .
Thewor kforc einc rea sesvi athehi ringr ateandde creases
viather a teofq ui t
s ,l
a yoffs,andr et
ireme nts.Yourba nkba la ncei ncreaseswi thde -
positsa ndde c r
eas esa syo us pend･ Ye tde spltee verydaye xpe r
ienc eofs tocksa nd
lows
f ,alltooof t
e npe oplef a
iltodi st
ingui shc lea rl
ybe twe ent he m･ IstheUSf ed-
eralde ficitas t
oc koraf low?Ma nype opl e,i nc ludingpol itici
a nsr espons i
blef or
fis
calpol icy,a r
eunc lear .Fail
uret oun de rstandt hedi fer e
nc ebe twe e
ns tocksa nd
lowsof
f te nl eadst ounde rest
ima t
ionoft imede lays ,ashort-termf ocus,a ndpol i
c y
resis
ta nce.

6.
1.i Di
agr
amm垂
ngNot
ati
ori苧
orSモ
ocksandF一
ows
Syst
em dynami
csus
esapa
rti
cul
ardi
agr
ammi
ngnot
ati
onf
ors
toc
ksa
ndf
lows
(Fi
gure6-1
).
｡ Stoc
ksarer
epre
sente
dbyr
ect
angl
es(
sugges
ti
ngac
ont
aine
rhol
dingt
he
cont
ent
softhest
ock).
｡I
nf
lowsa r
er e
present
edbyapi
pe(ar
row)poi
nti
ngint
o(addingt
o)t
he
st
ock.
OutlOwsa
f rerepr
esent
edbypi
pespoi
nti
ngoutof(
subt
ract
ingfr
om)
t
hes t
ock.
o Va
lve
scont
rolt
hef
lows
.
･ Cloudsr epres
entthesourc
esa ndsinksfortheflows･As ourc
erepres
ents
thest
oc kf r
omwhi chaflowor lgl
natlngOutsidetheboundaryofthemodel
ari
ses;sinksreprese
ntthestoc
ksintowhi chflOwsl e
avlngthemode l
bounda r
ydr ai
n.Sourcesandsinksa r
ea ss
ume dt
oha veinfi
nit
ecapaci
tyand
canne verconstr
ainthef
lowsthe ysupport.
Thestruc t
ur eofa l
lstockandflows tr
ucturesiscompos e doft
he seeleme nts
.
Ast heexa mpl einthefigureshows ,afi
rm'sinventorylSaS tockthatacc
umul at
es
theinf
lowofpr oducti
ona ndisreducedbytheout lowofs
f hipme nts
･Thesea rethe
on
lyf lowsc onsidere
di nthemode l:unl
essexplicit
lyshown,ot herpossi
bleflows
intooroutoft hes tock,suchasinventor
yshrinkageo rspoilage, ar
ea s
sume dtobe
ze r
o.Thec loudsi ndica
tethatthestockofrawma te
rial
sne verstar
vesthepr oduc-
tionrat
ea ndt hes t
ockofpr oductshippedtocustomersne ve rgrowss ohightha ti
t
blocksthes hipme ntrat
e.
 Cha
pte
r6 St
ocksa
ndFl
ows 1
93

FIGURE6 -
1 Gener
a一St
ruct
ure:
Stockandfl
ow
di
n
agr
ota
amml
t
ion
ng
て
｢
∠
_7
二
ゝ t
E
t
b
LSt
o
ck て
｢
∠
⊥7
ゝ 由
一.
ー

= ] st
ock
Key=
> Fr
ow

X val
ve(
RowRegul
ator
)

○ Sourc
eorSink
(St
ocksout
sidemode一boundar
y)

Val
vesregul
ateamount
/ t
IowmglnOrOut＼＼

FI
owofmat
eri
al fl
owofmat
eri
al
Outofst
ock
〔
3
Sour
ce I
nfl
ow Out
f一
ow SI
'
nk

争
/
＼
＼ ー Nameo f /

fI
ow

Examp一
e:

l
n
ve
n
to
r
y
Pr
oduct
ion

6且2 Ma的ema昔i
ea自Repr
esenせ
a抽 mo甘
St
ocksandFlows
Thestoc
ka ndf
lowdiag
rammingconve
nti
ons(or
igi
nat
edbyForr
e s
ter1961)We
re
base
donahyd ra
uli
cme t
aphor
-theflOwo fwateri
ntoandoutofr ese
rvoi
rs.
Inde
ed,iti
shelp
ult
f othin
ko fs
toc
ksasbatht
ubsofwate
r.Thequantl
tyOfwat
er
194 P
art
IIT
ool
sfo
rSy
st
ems
Thi
nki
ng

i
nyourba tht
uba tanytlmei sthea ccumulat
ionoft hewa t
ernowlnglnt hr
oughthe
t
a plessthewa t
e rf
lowi ngoutt hr oughthedrain(a ss
umenos plas
hingore vapora
-
t
ion).Ine xact
lythes amewa y,thequa nti
tyofma teria
linanystoc
ki sthea c
cumu-
l
a t
ionoft hef
lowso fma ter
ialinl essthef
lowsofma t
eri
alout.
Despitetheprosai
c
me ta
phort hestocka ndflOwdi a gram hasapr eci
sea ndunambiguousma themati
-
calme anlng.St
oc ksaccumul at
eori nte at
gr ethei
rflows ;
hene
t tf
lOwi ntothest
ock
i
st hera t
eofc hangeoft hestoc k.He ncethestruc t
urerepr
esent
edi nFigure6-1
abovec orres
pondse xactlytothef ol
lowlngIntegralequat
ion:

S
t
oc
k
(t
)-l
lo
t
I
nlo
f w(
S)IO f
low(
S)
]ds+St
o
utck(
to
) 6
(-1
)

whereInf
low(S)represe
ntstheval
ueoftheinf
lowatanyti
mesbe t
we entheini
ti
al
ti
met oandt
hec ur
r entt
imet .
Equival
entl
y,t
henetrat
eofchangeofanys t
ock,i
ts
deri
vati
ve,i
stheinflowlesstheoutlow,de
f f
ini
ngthedife
renti
alequa
tion
d(
Sto
ck)
/dt-I
nno
w(t
)IOu
tlo
f w(
t)
. (
6-2
)
Ingeneral,theflowswi l
lbef unctionsofthestockando therst
a tevari
ablesandpa -
rameter
s .Figure6-2S howsf ourequl Vale
ntrepre
sentat
ionsoft hege nera
lstockand
nows tuc
r ture.Theba thtubands tocka ndflOwdiagramsma ya ppeartobel e
ssr1g-
orousthant hei nt
e gralordi f
ferentialequati
onrepresentati
ons ,buttheya repre-
cis
e l
ye qulValenta ndc onta
ine xac t
lythes ameinforma ti
on･Fr om anys ystem of
int
egralo rdifferentialequationswec a
nc onst
ructthec orrespondings tockand
lowma
f p;f roma nys tocka ndflOwma pwec angeneratethec or
respondingInte-
gralordifferenti
ale quati
ons yste
m.
GURE6
FI ･
2 Hydr
au一
icMet
aphor
:
Fourequl VaJ
ent
repr
es entati
ons
ofstockand l
月ows tru
c tur
e
Each
repr
es entati
on 曹

contai
ns ノ=
preci
selyt he
Same
inf
ormation
.
St
ockandF一
owDi
agr
am:

l
nfl
ow Out
f一
ow

l
ntegr
alEquat
ion:

St
ock(
t)- llnf
Eow(
S)-Ou紺ow(
S)] ock(
ds+St t)
o
tt

Di
ff
erent
ialEquat
ion:

d(
Stock)
/dt-NetChangei
nSt
ock-J
nfl
ow(
I)IOut
fl
ow(
I)
Ch
apt
er6 S
toc
ksa
ndF
lows 195

Pr
oce
ssPo
int
:No
tat
i
onf
orAc
cumu
lat
i
on
Thetradi
ti
onalnot
ationusedinc a
lculusandshowninFigur
e6-2isoft
encon -

fus
ingtomanypeople.Int
hisbook,Iwi l
lgene
ral
lyr
epre
sentt
heproc
essofa
ccu-
mulat
ionwiththeI
NTEGRAL( )functi
on･
.
St
ock-I
NTEGRAL(
Inlo
f w Ou
tlo
f w,
Sto
ckt
｡) (
6-3)

TheI NTEGRAL( )f
unct
ionise
xac
tlye
quiva
lentt
oe quati
on(6-
1)andrepres
ent
s
t
hec onceptt
hat
thest
ockacc
umula
tesi
tsi
nf
lowslessitsout
lows
f ,begi
nningWit
h
aniniti
alva
lueofSt
ockt
o･

6.
1.3 TheCont
ribut
ionofSt
ockst
oDynami
cs
Stoc
ksa
recr
iti
cali
nge
ner
ati
ngt
hedyna
micsofs
yst
emsf
ort
hef
oll
owl
ngr
eas
ons
(Mass1
980)
:

1
. Stoc ksC har ac ter i
z et hestateoft hes ys t
em andpr ovidet hebas isfor
aetions .
Thes t
ocksi nas ys temt ellde ci
sionma kerswhe retheya re,providingthem
witht hei nf
o rma tionne ededt oac t
.Api l
otmus tknowt hes t
ateofthea irc
raf
t
includingpos ition, he ading,a l
ti
tude ,andf uelle vel･Withoutkn owl edgeof
theses ta
te s
, thepi loti sf
lyingbl i
nda ndwon' tsur vi
vel ong. Likewise,a
fir
m ca n'tse titspr od ucti
ons chedul eappr opriatelywi t
ho utk
no wledgeof
theor derba ckl og, t
hes t
oc kofinve ntory,thepa r t
sstocks ,t
hel aborforce,
andot hers toc ks ,Aba lances heetcha racte
rizest hefinanc ia
lhe lt
a hofa
corpor at
ionbyr e port l
ngt heva l
uesofs tockss uc hasc ash,inventory,
paya bles,andde bt. Informa ti
ona boutt hesestoc ksa f
fec t
sde cisi
onss uchas
issulngne wde bt, payi ngdi vi
dends ,andc ontrollinge xpens esvialayoffs.
2. St oc kspr ovides ys t
e mswit hi ne rti
aandme mor y.
St oc ksa cc umul atepa steve nt s.Thec ont entofas tockc anonl yc hange
thr ougha ni nflowo rout low.
f Wi thoutc ha nge si nthe sef
lows ,t
hepa st
ac cumul atio nintothes toc kpe rsi
sts.Thes toc kofl e a
di nthepa lntOf
Ame rica'si nnerc lt
yhous lngr ema i
nshi ght oda ye vent houghl eadpa intwa s
ba nne di n1 978. 0mc ethes tockofl ea dpa lnta ccumul ated, t
heo nlywa yto
elimi na tei tisthroughe xpe ns i
vede leadi ngo r血ee ventualde moliti
onoft he
hous lngI tself.Eve nthe nt hel eadr ema i
ns , eithers afelys e
que st
eredormor e
l
i ke lydi spe rsedintot hee nvi ronme nta sdus t,chi ps,orle a
dl eaching血･ om
landf illsint owa tersuppl ies .Like wise,thes tockofoz one -destr
oying
chl orinege n erat
edbyCFCswi llrema ini nt hea t
mos phe refわrde cadese ven
afte rt
hepr oduc ti
onr ateofCFCsf al
lstoz erobe causet her at
ea twhi ch
c hl orinei ss crubbe df romt hes trat
osphe rei sve rylow. Stoc ksdon'tha veto
bet angibl e.Me mor i
esa ndbe l
iefsa r
es toc kst ha tcharac t
erizeyourme ntal
states .Yourbe l
iefspe rsistove rt i
me ,ge ner atlngl nerti
aa ndc ontinultyln
youra tt
it
ude sandbe havior Jfyouha veaba de xpe ri
enc eona na ir
linea nd
ne ve rflyont ha tcrr
a iera ga i
n, yourbe liefa boutt helowqua l
it
yoft he i
r
ser vicer ema inseve nifthe y' vei mprove d.
196 Pa
r IT
tI o
olsf
orS
yst
em sTh
ink
ing

3. St ocksa ret hes our ceofde lays .

Al lde laysi nvol ves toc ks ･Ade l
a yl Sapr oc essWhos eout putl a gsbe hindi ts
lnPut .Thedi fe r enc ebe twe ent hei nputa ndo utputa ccumul atesi nas t
oc kof
ma t
er ialinpr oc es s. The rei sal agbe twe ent het imeyouma i
lal e tt
e randt he
timei tisr ece ive d. Dur ingt hi sint erva l, t
hel et t
e rr es i
de sinas toc kofl ett
e rs
int rans i
t. Eve ne ma ila cc umul atesi ns toc ksofunde live re dpa c ke tsa nd
me ssage sr esidi ngi nt heme mor yofva r i
ousc omput e rsbe twe e nt hes ende r
andr ece i
ve r.The rei sal agofs eve ralye ar sbe t
we e nt hede cisiont obui l
d
ne wof ficebui ldingsa ndt het imet he ya rer e adyf o roc cupa ncy･ Dur ingt his
interva lthe rei sas uppl yl i neofbui ldingsunde rde ve lopme nt,i nc ludinga
stocko fpr opos e dpr oje ctsa ndas toc kofbui ldingsunde rc ons tuc
r tion･
Byde f
ini ti
on,whe nt hei nputt oade layc ha nge s,theout putl agsbe hind
andc ont inue sa ttheol dr atef ors omet ime. Dur ings uc ha djus tme nts,the
stocka ccumul atingt hedi ffe re nc ebe t we e nI nputa ndout putc ha nge s･Ifyou
ma i
lwe ddi ngI nvi tationst o1 000ofyourc los estf rie ndsa l
la tonc e,whi let he
r atea twhi chot he rma ilisde pos ite dr ema insc ons ta nt, thes toc kofl ettersin
translt JumpSby1 000a ndr ema insa tthene wl e ve la st hel e ttersma ket heir
wa yt ot he irde stina tions .Onl ya sthei nvi tationsbe gi nt oa rivedoe
r sthe
stockofl ettersi nt r ans i
ts ta rtt of a l
l. Thede live ryr atee xc ee dst hema ili
ng
r ate,S hrinki ngt hes toc kofma ilint ra ns i
t, unt ila llt hei nvi ta ti
onsha vebe en
de li
ve red,a twhi chpoi ntt hede live ryr a t
eonc ea ga lne qua lst her atea twhi ch
ma i
li sde pos ite da ndt hes toc kofl ette rsi nt rans itr e t
ur nst oi t
sor l
glna lleve l
･
Pe r
c eptionde la ysa l
s oi nvol ves toc kst hought hes es toc ksdonoti nvol ve
anyma ter i
alflows .Fore xa mpl e, thebe liefofma na ge rsi nac ompa ny'S
¶l iwa nhe adqua rte rsa bo utt hes hipme ntr atef romt he irSi liconVa lleypl ant
l agsbe hindt het rues hipme ntr a teduet ome a sur eme nta ndr epor tingde lays ･
Me asur eme nto far ates uc ha ss hipme nt sa lwa ysi nvol vesas t
oc k･ Duet o
unpr e dictableva riationsi nc us tome ror de rs,pr od uc ta va ilability,a nd
tr anspor t
a t
ion,S hi pme nt sc a nva rys l
gni ficant lyf romhourt ohour ,da yt o
da y, orove re ve nl onge rpe ri ods .Shi pme nt smus tbea c cumul a tedf orsome
pe r i
odoft imes uc ha sada y, we ek, Ormont ht opr ovi deame anlngf ul
me asure me ntoft her ate. Ifs hi pme nt sa rehi ghl yvol atile,thef irmwi llha ve
toa cc umul atet he m ove rl onge ri nte rva lstof ilteroutt hes hor Lt er mnoi sea nd
pr ovi deame ani ngf ula ve ra gema nage r sc anus et oma kede cisions ･In
a dd it
iont he rea r er epor tingde laysi nvol vingas toc kofs hipme nti nforma t
ion
wa itl
ngt Obeupl oa de dt oa nddownl oa de df romt hef ir m' sc omput e rsys t
e m･
The rema ybef ur t
he rde laysi nt hea djus tme ntoft hee xe cut ive s' be l
iefse ven
a 氏e rt he ys eet hel a testda ta. Cha pte r1 1de s cribe st hes truc turea nddyna mi cs
ofde laysi nde ta i
l .
4. Stocksde coupler atesoff l
owandc re
atedisequilibrium dyna mics｡
Stocksabsorbt hedi ferencesbetwe eninf
lowsa ndout l
fows ,thuspermit
tl
ng
theinf
lowsa ndoutlowst
f oapr ocesstodiff
er.I
ne quilibrium, t
hetota
l
inf
lowt oas tockequa lsitstot
alout lows
f ot
hel eveloft hestockis
unchanglng. Howe ve r
,inf
lowsa ndoutlowsus
f uall
ydi fe rbecausetheyare
ofte
ngove me dbydi ferentdecis i
onprocesses
.Di e
s quilibrum i
i st
her ul
e
rat
herthant hee xc
e ptl
On.
Ch
apt
er6 S
toc
ksa
ndF
lows 197

Thepr o duc t
iono fgr ainde pe ndso nt heye arlyc yc l
eofpl antlnga nd
harve st,alongwi t
hunpr e dictabl ena turalva riati
o nsi nwe a the r,pe st
popul ations, ands oo n. Cons umpt l
OnO fg rainde pe ndso nhowma nymo uths
therea ret ofe ed. Thed iffer e
nc ebe twe eng rainp r od uctiona ndc ons umpt ion
ratesa ccumu latesing rains t
o cks ,Stor
e dt hrou gho utt hed istribut ions ystem
fromf ie ldtogr ainele vato rtopr oce ss
o rinv en t
or iest oma rke ttoki tche n
cupboa rd.Wi tho utas t ocko fg raint obuf fert hedi f ferenc esbe t
we en
produc tiona n dc onsu mpt ion, CO nSumpt lO nWO uldne cessa rilye qua l
produc tiona ta lltime sa ndpe opl ewo u l
ds t
arv ebe twe enha r ve sts. Thus
Josepha d vi
se dPha r
a oht os tockpi l
eg r aind uringt he7goodye arsi n
anticl
pa t
iono ft he7l ea nye arsd u r
ingwhi c
hc ons umpt lOnWO ul de xce ed
harve sts.Whi l eo na ve raget hepr oduc ti
o no fg ra inba lanc e sc ons umpt lOn
(andl os ses)asf a r
me rsr e spo ndt oma rke tpric esa ndi nve nto ryc ondi tions
inde termi ningho wmuc ht opl ant ,anda sco nsume rsa djus tc o nsumpt ion
inrespons etopr lCeSa nda va il
abi li
ty,p roduc tiona ndc o ns umpt l Ona re
rarel
ye qua l.
Whe ne vert woc oupl eda ctiviti
e sarec ontrolledbyd i
fe re ntde cision
ma kers ,invo l
vedi ff
e rentr e sourc es,anda res ubje ctt odi ffer entr a ndo m
shocks ,ab ufe ro rstoc kbe t
we ent he mmus te xist, accu mul atingt he
diff
ere nc e.Ast he ses tocksva r
y ,informa t
iona bo utt hes izeoft hebuf f er
willfe edba c ki nva riouswa yst oi nlue
f nc ethei nf
lo wsa ndo utlows
f .Of t
en,
butno ta lwa ys ,thesef e edba ckswi llope ra t
et obr ingt hes t oc ki ntoba lance･
Whe the ra ndho we qui l
ibr iumi sa chieve dc anno tbea ssume dbuti san
eme rgentpr ope r
tyo ft hewho l
es ystema sitsma nyf ee dba ckl oo psi nte r
act
simulta neous ly.Unde rs t
and i
ngt hena turea nds tabi li
tyo ft he s edyna mi cs
isoftent hepu rpos eo fas ys t
e md yna mi csmod el.

6d
2 日
der
酬 y百
mgSt
ocksand『日
⑳ws
Thedi stinctionbe twe ens tocksa ndflowsi sre cogniz edi nma nydi sciplines.
Ta ble61 ls howss o mec ommo nt ermsus edt od ist
ing uishbe twe ens toc ksa nd
lowsi
f nva r i
o usf i
e lds.I
nma thema t
ics,sys t
e md yna ic
m s,controlthe ory,a ndr e -

latede nglne e
r ingd isci
plines,stocksa rea l
s ok
nO wna sint egralsors tat evar iables･
Flo wsa r
ea l
soknowna srateso rder i
vat i
ve .Che
s mistss peako f7 1eaC t
ant Sa nd
reac ti
onpr oduc ts( t
hes tocks )andr eactionr ates( t
hemows ).Inma nufac t
ur i
ng
setings
t ,s t
oc ksa ndf lowsa rea l
s oc al
ledbu Hersa ndt hrough put.I ne conomi cs,
stocksa rea lsok no wna slevelsa ndflOwsa sr ates.Fore xa mple,thec apit
a lstock
ofa ne c onomyi si tslevelofwe alth(me asuredin,s ay,do llar
s)whi let heGDPi s
thea gg regater ateo fna t
ionalout put(me asuredinS /yea r)
. Inaccount ing, ba l
ance
she etitemsa r estoc ks,sucha sc ash,thebo okva lueo fi nventory,lo ng- termde bt,
ands harehold ere quity(allme a s
u redin,e .g･,doll
a rs
).Itemsa ppeari ngont hein-
co mes t
ateme nto rno wo ffundsr eporta reflOwswhi c ha lt
erthec o rrespo nding
stockso ntheba lances heet,sucha snetrec el
ptS,thec ostofgo odss ol d,long- term
bo rr
owi ng,a ndt hec hangei nr e tai
ne de arnlngS.The s eflowsa reme asuredi n
S/yea r.Phys iologica lmo delso ft
e nlumpdi ferents t
ocksi ntoas ma llnumbe rof
compar tmentso rboxe sc onne ct
edbydi f
fusionr at
e s(t
hef l
ows ).Fo re xa mpl e,the
stocko fgluc osei nahuma nc anber e presentedbyat hreec ompa r tme ntmode l:
198 P
art
IIT
わol
sfo
rSy
ste
msTh
ink
ing

TABLE6･
l
Fi
eld St
ocks Fl
ows
Terminologyused
todisti
nguish Mat
h m
e atic
s,p h
yscs
i l
n t
egrals,st
ates,stat
e Der
ivaive
s
t,raes
t of
betweens tocks de
an n l
ge
nerl
ng vari
ables,stocks cha ge,f
n l
ows
andf一owsi n Reac t
an t
sandr eacti
on Re
ac t nrat
es
dif
fer
en t Chemistry io

p｢oducts
dis
cIPIE
neS
M anu
fac
tu rl
ng Buff
ers,inventori
es Throughpu t
Economi
cs Levels Rates
Ac
coun
ti
ng Stocks,balancesheet FE
ows, cashfiowor
i
tems i
ncomes t
atemen t
i
tems
Biog
ol y,p
hy o
si l
o gy Compar
tment
s Dif
fusi
onr at
es, f
lows
Medi
ci
ne, Pr
eval
ence,r
eser
voi
rs I
ncidence,infect
ion,
epi
demiol o gy morbidi
tyand
mortali
t
yr ates

gluc osei nt hedi gestives ys tem, gluc os ei nthebl oods t

rea m,a ndgl ucoseint hein-
tracellula rma t
r ix･Ine pide mi ology, pr ev alenc eme asure sthenumbe rors t
ockof
peo plewhoha veapa rti
c ularc ondi tiona ta nygi vent i
me,whi l
ei ncidencei sthe
ratea twhi chpe o plec omedownwi tht hedi s e
a seorc ondi t
ion. I
nDe cembe r1 998
thepr eva lenc eofHI V/AI DSwor ldwi dewa ses t
ima t
e dbyt heUni tedNa t
ions
AI DSpr ogr amt obe33. 4mi ll
iona ndt hei nc i
de nceofHI Vi nfT
ecti
onwa sestima t
ed
tobe5. 8mi llioIVye a r.Tha tis,at ota lof33. 4mi lli
onpe o plewe ree st
ima t
e dtobe
HI Vpos itiveo rt oha veAI DS;t her a teofa ddi t
iontot hi sstockwa s5.8mi l
lion
peopl epe rye ar( 16,
000ne wi nf ecti
onspe rday) IThene tc hangei nthepo pul a
tion
ofHI Vpos itivei ndi vidua lswa se s
tima tedt obe3. 3mi l
lionpe opl eperye arduet o
thedea thr atef romA l Ds, estima tedt obe2･ 5mi lli
onpe oplepe rye a
ri n1998.
Howc anyout el
lwhi chc onc e
pt sa r es t
oc ksa ndwhi cha ref
lows ?Stoc ksare
quant it
iesofma teri
a lorot hera c c
umul ations .The ya r
et hes tatesoft hes ystem.
Thef lOwsa ret her a
te satwhi c hthes es ys tems ta
tescha nge. Ima glnear i
ve rf
low
-

ingi ntoar ese rvoi r.Thequa ntit

yofwa teri nther eservoirisas t
oc k(me asuredin,
say,c ubicme ters ).Ifyoudr ewa nima g ina r
yl inea cr
osst hepoi ntwhe r
ether iver
enterst her ese rvoi r,theflOwi st her atea twhi chwa te
rpa ssestheline-t her at
eof
lowi
f nc ubicme terspe rs ec ond.

6 .
2.1 Uni
tsofMeasur
einSt
ockandFl
ow Net
wor
ks
Theuni tsofme asurec anhe lpyo udi s t
inguishs t
oc ksfrom flows .Stocksa re
usuallyaqua nt
ltyS uchaswi dge t
sofi nve nt
or y,peopleempl oyed,orYe nina n
account.Thea s
sociatedf
lOwsmus tbeme asuredinthes ameuni t
s pertimepe ri
od,
forexampl e,ther a
tea twhi chwi dgetsarea dde dperwe ektoinve ntor
y ,t
hehiring
rat
einpe oplepe rmont h,o rther ateofe xpenditurefr
oma naccounti n¥ノhour.No t
e
thatthechoiceoft imepe riodi sarbit
r a
ry･Youa re氏.eetose l
ectanyme asure
me nt
syste
myoul ikea slonga syour ema i
nc ons i
stent.Youc anme asuretheflowofpr o-
ducti
oni nt
oi nve nt
or yaswi dge t
spe rwe ek,wi dgetspe rday,orwi dgetsperhour .
Thes tat
eme ntHThec urr
e ntr a
t eofpr oductioni s1200wi dgetsperda yHisexa c
tly
Cha
pte
r6 St
ock
sandFl
ows 199

equl
Va lentto山es ta
teme ntthatproductio
ni sproceedingatarateof8 400widge t
s
perwe ek,50wi dget
spe rho ur
,5/6wi dget
spe rminute,oreven43,800,000widge t
s
percentu r
y.Allarestat
e me nt
sabo uthowma nywi dgetsarebeingproducedright
now-att hisin
stant.Whe thert
hec umulat
ivenu mbe rofwidgetsproducedina ny
glVe
ni nteⅣa ls
ucha sada y,week, orcent
uryl Sequalto1200,8400,or43 ,
800,
0 00
dependso nwhe therthec urre
ntrates t
aysco nst
antove rt
hatinter
val( o
raverages
outtothec urre
ntrate).
Mos tli
kelyitwo n't
.

6.
2.2 Tht
T
tSnapshotTest
St oc ksc ha racterizet hes tateoft hes ys tem.Toi de ntifyke ys toc ksi nas ys tem,
ima ginef ree zin gt hes cenewi thas na ps hot .St ockswo uldbet hos et hi ngsyo u
co uldc ounto rme asu rei nt hepi c t
ur e, i
nc lud ingps yc holog lCa lstate sa ndo t
he rin-
tangi bl eva riab l
e s.Youc a ne stima tet hes tocko fwa teri nar eservoi rf ro m as e
t
o fs atellitei ma gesa ndt opo gra ph icda ta,butyouc annotde termi newhe thert he
wa terl eve lisr isingO rf alling. Yo u rba nks ta t
e me ntt ellsyo uhowmuc hmo ne ylS
inyo u ra c countb utnott her at ea twhi c hy o ua res pe ndingl tnow. Iftimes t
oppe d,
itwo ul dbepos si
bl et ode te rmi neho wmu chi nv entor yac o
mpa nyha so rt hep rice
o fma ter ialsbutno tt hene tr a teo fc ha ngei ni nve nt or
yo rt her ateo fi nf
la tioni n
ma terialspr lCe S.Thes naps hott e sta ppl iesa l
s otol esst angibl es toc ks ･Thepl ant
ma na ger 'Sex pe ctationo fthec usto me ro rde rratea ta nyI ns t
antO rpe rC eptlO nO fthe
sizeo fi nve nt orya res t
o cks , eve nt ho ug ht he ya r
eme nta landnotphys ica lstocks .
As na ps ho to fpe opl e'sme nt a ls tates, ho we ve r,doe snoti ndi ca t
eho wf astt heya re
rev ISlngt heirbe l
ief s.
Fi gur e61 3l istss omec ommo nc onc ept sa ndi de ntifi
e sthe ma ss toc kso rf l
o ws ,
sho wi ngt he irs t
oc ka ndflows truc turea ndun itso fme a sure･ Po pul ation, Empl oy-
ee s,a ndDe bta res tra i
g htf orwa rd. Whyi st hepr lCeOfapr oduc tas t
oc k?Pr ices
cha ra cterizet hes tateoft hes ys tem, int hi sc asehowmuc hyo umus tpa ype ru nit.
Ap ric epos tedo na ni t
e mr ema insi ne fe ctu ntiliti sc ha nge d,jus ta st henu mbe r
ofwi dge tsi na ninve nto ryr e ma insc o ns tantunt ili tisc hange dbyaf lo wo fpr o-
duc t
io no rs hipme nt s.Eve nt hebi dsa ndo fe rsc alledo utinat rad i
ngpl ta taf i
-
na nc ialma rke ta res toc ks ,a lbe its ho ve
r t - dol nes
i ･
.abi do rof ferr ema insi ne fe c
t
unt ilthet rade rwi 山d rawso ra t
l ersi tbyc r yingO uta nOthe r･
Whyi sthee xpe cte dc us tome ro rderr a tefo rapr oduc tas toc k?Cl e arl
y ,hea
t c-
tua lc us tome ro rde rr atei sanow. Thef lO wo fc ust ome ro rde rsa ccumul a t
esi na
ba ckl ogo rs toc ko funf ill
e do rde rsun tilthepr o duc tc anbed elive r
e d. Ho we ve r,a
ma na ger 'sbe liefa bo utt her atea twhi chc ustome ro rder sa r
eboo kedi sas to ck-1 t
isas tateo ft hes ys tem,i nt hi sc a seame nta lstate.Noo nek nowst het ruec urrent
orf ut ureo rde rr at
e. Tlhema na ge r'sbe l
ie fa bo uto rde rsc an,a ndus ua llyC L
O eS, dif
-
ferf ro mt het rueo rde rr ate( thebe liefc anbewr o ng) .Ma nage rs' be l
ief sabo utt he
cus tome ro rde rr atewi llte ndt or ema int hes ameun ti
lthe ybe co mea wa reo fne w
info rma tiona ndu pda t
et he irbe lie fs.TheCha ngei nEx pe ctedOr derRa t eist he
ratea twhi cht heb e l
ie fisu pda ted. Not et heuni t
sofme a suref ort hee xpe ctedo r
-
de rr ate. Liket hea c tualo r de rr ate ,thee xp ec t
e do rde rra teisme asure di nwi d ge t
s
pe rtimepe riod( saywe eks ).Theuni tso fme asur ef b∫ther atea twhi c ht heb el
ief
abo utc us tome ro rder sisu pda te da re( wid ge ts/we ek) /
we e k
200 Pa
rtH To
olsf
orSys
temsTh
ink
ing

GURE6-
3
Ft
Exampl esof
て
｢7 由一 .
ー Popuat
一 i
on て
｢7 血
,
..
_
stocksandf lows
withtheiruni tsof
peopl
( e/
year
)
measur e
Thech oiceoft ime
unitforthef l
ows
(e.g.
, days, week s,
years)isar bitrar
y
bu tmu stbe
consisten twithina
slngl
emodel .

Borr
owing Repayment
(/
Syear
) (
S/year
)

RateofPr
ice
(
S/ t
)
uni
Change
(
S/unWyear
)

Expected
Customer1
0rders
Changein
(
widget
s/week
)
Expect
ed
Or
derRate
(
wI'
dget
s/weeJ
dweek
)

NotethattherateofprlCeChangea ndthechangeintheexpectedorderrat
ec a
n
beposit
iveorne gat
ive(pr
icesandde ma ndforeca
s t
scanri
seorfall
)AAnyflowi nt
o
oroutofas toc kcanbee i
therpos i
ti
veorne gat
ive｡Thedirect
ionoft hearrow
(poi
nti
ngintoo routofas t
ock)definesthesignconventi
onforthef
low. Aninflow
addstothest
oc kwhe nthef
lowi spos i
tive;i
ftheflowisnegati
veitsubtr
a c
tsfrom
thest
ock.Whe ntheo utlowi
f spositi
ve,thef
lows ubt
rac
tsfr
omt hestock.
Ch
ape
t r6 S
toc
ksa
ndF
lows 201

!
dent
if
yingSt
ocksandF!
ows
Arethefoll
owingco
ncept
sSt
ockso
rflows
?Dr
awas
toc
kandf
lowma
pfore
ach
andgivethei
runi
tsofmea
sur
e.

1
.I nt
ere
stra
te(
e.g.
,thepr
imei
nte
res
tra
teorr
at he30-
eont yea
rUSTr
eas
ury
bond).
2.Une
mpl
oyme
ntr
ate.
Hi
nt:Wha
tdoe
sthewo
rd"
rat
e"me
ani
nthes
ese
tti
ngs
?

6.
2.3 Conser
vat
ionofMat
eri
a一i
n
St
ockandFlowNetwor
ks
Ama jorS t
r engt hoft hes toc ka ndnowr e pres ent ationi sthec le ardi st
inc tionbe -
twe e nthephys icalflowst hr ought hes toc ka ndf lOwne twor ka ndt hei nf or ma tion
fee dba ckst ha tc ou pl ethes toc kst ot hemowsa ndc losethel oo psi nthes ys te m. The
cont entsoft hes t
oc ka ndf lOwne two rksa r ec ons e rve di nt hes enset hati te mse n-
terlngaS toc kr emaint hereunt ilthe yf lowout .Whe na ni temf lowsf romones toc k
toa not he rthef irsts toc klos e spr ec iselya smuc ha st hes econdga ins. Cons idert he
stoc ka ndf lOws tr uc t
ur er e pre sentingt hea c count sr ece i
va bl eofaf i
rm( Figur e
6-4) ･Thes toc ko fr ece i
va ble si sinc re asedbybi llingsa ndde cr easedbypa yme nts
rec eiveda ndbyde f aults.Thef lOwofbi ll
ingsi sc ons erve di nthes ens etha tonc ea
cus tome ri sbi l
led, thei nvo ic er ema i
IISi nthes toc kofr e ceiva ble sunt i
lite xplic i
tly
lowsoutwhe
f nt her ec ei
va bl esde pa rtme ntr e cor dst hec usto me r'
spa yme ntora c-
knowl edgest ha t t
hec ustome rha sde faul t
eda ndwr itesof ft hea ccount .Inc ontr ast
,
infわr ma tiona boutt hes toc kofr e ceiva blesi snotc ons erve d.Thec orpo r at
ea c-
Count lngS yst em ma kest heva lueof也er ece iva bless toc ka vailablet oma ny
hr
t oughoutt heo rga niz at
ion. Ac c esslnga ndus ingt hisi nfor ma tiondoe snotus eit
upo rma kei tuna va ilablet oot her s.
Not ea ls ot hatwhi let heuni tsofa ccount spa ya bl ea redol larsa nd也ebュ lling,
pa yme nt ,andde fa ultmowsa r eme asur edi ndol la rspe rt imepe r iod,thec ont entsof
血es tocka renota c tua l
lydo llars. Ra the r,thec ont entoft her eceiva bless toc ki si n-
forma ti
on,s pe cific ally,al e dge ro rda taba sec ons istlngOfr eco rdso fi nvoi c esout -
standi ng. Tos e ewhy , ima ginet ryingt Oe xc ha ngeyourf i
rm' ss tockofr ec eiva bles
forc a s
h-youc ans ellthemt oac olle ctiona ge nc y, butonl yf o rmuc hl esst ha n1 00
cerltSOn払edol lar. Thought hec ont e ntsoft hes toc kofr ec eiva blesi sinf or ma ti
on
andnotama te r
ialqua ntity,l tisne ve rtheles sc ons erve d-youc annots e llagl Ve n
stoc kofr ece ivabl esmo ret ha no nc e( notl e ga l
ly, a nywa y) .Stoc ksc anr e
pr e senti n-
forma t
iona swe lla smor et a ng
ibl equa ntitiess uc ha spe opl e, mone y,a ndma te ri
-
als.St ocksc ana lsor e pres enti nta ngi bleva riabl esi nc ludingps ychol ogic a lstates,
per ceptlOnS , ande xpe ctationss uc ha se mpl oye emo rale,thee x pe ct
edr a
t eofi nf
la -
ti
on,orpe rceive di nve ntor y.
202 Pa
rtIT
I o
olsf
orS
yst
em sTh
ink
ing

FlGURE6- 4
Stockandf low
str
u ctureof
accoun ts
receivabl e
Thema terial fF
ow-
lngthrought he
networ ki sac tuaHy
inf
ormat i
onabou t
customer sandt he
amoun tst he yowe,
Thisin format i
oni s
conser ved -t he
onlywayar ecei
- v
able,Onc ebi lled,
i
sr emovedf rom
thes t
ocki si fthe
customerpaysor
defaultsJn for ma-
ti
onabou tthesi ze 6.
2.堵 S竜
aモe-
Deモ
ermi
medSysを
ems
andcomposi tionof
Thet heoryofdyna mi cs yst
emst akesas tate-dete
rmine ds ys t
em ors tateva ria bl
e
accoun t
spayab一 e,
howev er,canbe appr oac h.Theonl ywa yas t
oc kcanc hangei svi ait
sinflowsa ndout lows
f .Int um,
madeavai labl e hes
t tocksde t
ermi net heflows( Fig ure6-5).
thr
oughou tthe Sys temst he r
e foreco nsi
stofne tworksofs tocksa ndflowsl inkedbyi nf o r
ma -
systeman di s ti
onf eedba cksfromt hes t
ockst other at
es( Figure6-6) .Ass howni nthef igur e,the
notdepl et edb y de t
emi na ntsofrate sincludea nyc onsta
ntsa nde xogeno usva riables･Thes et ooa r
e
uSage･ stocks .Cons t
antsa res ta
teva ria
ble sthatcha nges oslowl yt heya rec ons i
de redt o
bec ons tantove rthet imehor izonofi nteres
tint hemode l.Exoge nousva riablesa r
e
stocksyouha vec hos ennott omode lexplicit
lya ndaret her eforeout si
det hemode l
bounda ry. Forexa mpl e,inamode lofthede ma ndforane wvi deoga me,t hes iz
e
ofthepot e nti
alma rketmi ghtde pe ndont hepo pul a
tionbe t
we e n,say,a ges4a nd
20･ Thepr oductlifec yc l
ewi lllastaf ewye arsa tmos t.Ove rthi sti
mehor iz ont he
popul ationbe twe en4a nd20ye rsofa
a gei snotl i
kelyt oc hanges i
gnificant lya nd
canr e asona bl
ybea ssume dc onstant.Alternati
ve l
y,youc oul dmode lthes toc kof
childreni nt het argeta gegroupasa nexoge no usva r
iabl e,us lngC e
ns usda taa nd
prqe c t
ionst oes t
ima t
ei t
sva l
ues .Ma kingpo pul at
ionc ons tantore xoge nousi sa c-
ceptabl einthisc ases incetherea r
enos i
gnif i
cantfeedba cksbe twe ens alesofvi deo
game sa ndbi r
th,de a t
h,ormi gr at
ionr at
es.

6.
2,5 Aux百
日岳
aFyVar
iab日
es
Asi ll
ust
r a
tedinFigure6ェ6,ma t
hema ti
caldescrlptl
OnOfas yst
emr e
qulreSOnlythe
stocksandt heirra
tesofchange.Fore aseofc ommuni cati
ona ndc l
ari
ty,howe ver
,
itisoft
enhe lpfultodefi
neinter
me diat
eorau xiliar
yV ar
iables.Auxili
ariesconsis
t
offunctionsofs t
ocks(andconstantsorexogenousi nput
s)･Fore xample,apopula-
tionmode lmi ghtrepres
entthene tbir
thratea sdependingonpopul a
tiona ndthe
fract
ionalbirthrate;f
ract
ionalbirthrat
eint urnc anbemode le
da saf unctionof
foodpe rcaplta.Theleftsi
deofFi gure617S howst hestruct
urea ndequa t
ionsfor
 Ch
ape
tr6 S
toc
ksa
ndF
lows 20
3

FIGURE6 -5
Stat
e-determined
syst
ems
Systemse volve
byfeedbac ko f
i
n f
ormati
onf rom
t
h estat
eo fthe
syst
emt othe
f
lowsthatalter 賢 √ - / l 畢
t
hes tat
es.
iS璽『璽5
t
Lef:Cau
saHoop
repres en t
a t
ionin L. ＼＼ - / l ⊥ _
whicht hes tock
andf low St ateott heSy s tem≡l NTEGRAL( NetRa teofChange･ St a teoft heSyst emt ｡)
structurei sno t
expH dt. NetRa teofChange= i(St ateof的eSys tem)
Right:Ex pll
Cit
stockan df 一
ow
structuref orthe
samef eedbac k
themode l.TheNe tBi rthRa t
ea c cumul a tesi nt hePo pulatio ns toc k. Thea uxiliary
l
oop.
variable sFr acti
o na lBi rthRa tea ndFoodpe rCa pitaa rene ithers toc ksno rflows .
Theequ ati
on s The ya ref unc ti
onso ft hes tocks( ande xoge no usi nput s
, i
nt hisc a seFood ) .Popu-
corres pon dtothe l at
ionpa rti
cipatesi nt wof ee dba ckl oo ps :apos iti
vel oo p( mo repe opl e,mo re
stockan df l
ow
birt
hs ,mo repe ople )andane ga t
ivel oo p( mo repe opl e,lessf oo dpe rpe rson, lowe r
map. Then et
fract
io na
lne tbirt
hr a
te , f
ewe rbi rths). Thei nc lusionoft hea uxi l
ia ryva riable sdi s
-
rateo fc hange
ofthes tocki sa tlnguish es t
h e t
w o loop s and allow su na m b i
g uo us asslgnme n tO flinka nd loo pp o
-

f
un cti
ono fthe 1ari
ti
e s.
stocki t
s el
f, Thea uxilia
rie sc ana lwaysbee li
mi na teda ndt hemod e lr ed uce dtoas etof
closlngt he equa ti
o nsc o nsist
ingO n
lyofs t
oc ksa ndt he irf
lows ･Bys ubs titutingt hee qua t
ion
f
eedba c kloop. forFoodpe rCa pitain tot hee qua tionf o rFr a ctiona lBi r
thRa tea ndt he ns ubs it
t utl
lngt her esultintothee q uatio
nf orNe tBi rh Ra
t t
e ,yo uc ane limi natethea u xiliar
ie s
,
r educ i
ngt hemo de ltoo newi tho nl yNe tBi rthRa tea ndPo pul ation. Ther ights ide
ofFi gu re6- 7s howst hismode landi tse q uations .Tho ught hemo d elisma thema t
-
ical
lye qulVa lenttot hemode lwi tha uxi liaries, itisha rdert oe xpl ain,und ersta
nd,
andmodi fy.No tetha tint her educ e dfo rmmode lpo pulatione nterst hee qua tionf or
ther ateo fc han geo fpo pulationi nbo tht henume ratora ndde no mina to r
.The
po larlt
yO ft hec aus allin kbe twe e nPo pul atio na ndNe tBi r t
hsi snowa mbi guous ,
andi tisnotpos siblet odi st
ingui sht het wof eedba ckl oo psi nvo lvingpo pul at
ion
a ndbi rths .
Thepr ocesso fc rea tl
ngt her e duc edf ormmode lbys u bs ti
tutiono fint erme d i
-
a teva riablesi ntothe irr atesisage nera lo nea ndc anbec a血e do uto na nymode l
.
Ho we ve r,theus eofa uxi l
iaryva riable si sc riticalt oe f
fe ctivemode li
ng.I de a
lly,
e ache q ua ti
oni nyo urmode l
ss houl dr epr ese nto nema ini de a .Do n' ttrytoe cono-
mi zeo nt henumbe rofe qua t
ionsbywr ltlngl ongo nest ha te mbe dmul tiplec on-
c epts･The sel onge qua tionswi l
lbeha rdl bro therst ore ada ndu nde rstand. The y
wi llbeha rdf oryout ounde rstand.Fi na lly,e qua ti
o nswi thmul t
ipl ec ompone nts
a ndi de asa reha rdt oc ha ngei fyo urc l
ie ntdi s agreeswi t
ho neo ft hei deas .
204 P
art
IIT
ool
sfo
rSy
ste
msTh
ink
ing

GURE6
F】 -
6 Networ ksofstocksandf l
owsar ecoupledbyi n
formati
onfeedback .

Stock saccumul atet hei

rratesoffl
ow;i n
formati
onabou tthestocksfeedsbacktoalt
ert her ates,
closlngtheloopsi nt hes ys
tem. Constantsarestockschanglngtooslowlytobemodel edexpl l
Ci
tl
y;
ex ogenousvar iablesar est
oc ksoutsi
dethemodel boundary(shownbyt herect
angl
ewi throunded
cor ners)
.
Equat ionrepresen tati
on:Theder i
vati
vesofthes tocksi
ndyn amicsystemsare,ingener al,nonli
near
fun ct
ionsofthes toc ks,t
heex ogenousvar i
abl
es,andanyc onst
ants.lnmatri
xnotat
ion, theratesof
changedS/ dtareaf uncti
onf (
)oHhes t
atevectorS,theexogenou svari
ablesUandt hecon stant
sC:
dS/
dt-i
(S,U,C) (
6-4)

Fort
hedi
agr
amb
elow,
theequat
i
onf
ort
her
ateofchangeo
fS4i
s
dS4
/dt-f
4(
S3,
S4,U3
,C3
) (
6-5)

Exogenous
lnput
l

Ex
ogenous
l
n put2

Ex
oge un
o
s
l
n put
3

62.
6 St
. ocksChangeOn!
yThr
軌唱h■
ri
lei
rRat
es
St ocksc ha ngeonl yt hrought heirratesofflow･ The r
eca nbenoca usalli
nkdirec t
ly
intoas toc k.Cons ideramode lforcustome rservice.Custome rsa汀ivea tsomer ate
anda ccumul a
tei naque ueofCus tome rsAwa iti
ngSe rvice.Theque uecouldbea
linea taf astfoodr esta
ur ant,Carsawa it
lngr e
pa lratabodys hop, Orpe opl
eonhol d
ca ll
ingf ora irl
iner eserva t
ions,Whe nt hes erviceisc ompletedc us t
ome rsdepart
fromt heque ue,de creas l
ngt hestockofc ust
ome r
swa iti
ngf orservice･Ther ateat
whi chc us tome rsca nbepr ocessedde pendsont henumbe rofs ervicepersonne l
,
the i
rpr oduc t
ivit
y( incus tome rsprocessedpe rhourpe rperson),andt henumbe rof
hour st he ywor k( thewor kwe ek).Ift henumbe rofpe oplewa i
tingf o
rs ervice
inc r
ea ses ,e mploye esi ncreasethe i
rwor kwe eka stheys taya ne xtrashift
,s kip
lunc h,o rc utdownonbr eaks.
 Ch
apt
er6 S
toc
ksa
ndF
lows 205

FIGURE6-7 Auxil
i
aryvar
i
ables
Left
:Asi
mplepopul
ati
onmodel wi
thauxi
lf
aryVar
i
ables.Fr
act
i
on al
Bir
thRat
eandFoodperCapi
t
aar
e
neit
hers
tock
snorfl
ows,buti
ntermedi
ateconc
eptsaddedtothemodelt
oaidcl
ari
t
y .

F
7ght
i :Thesamemodel
wit
hth
eau
xil
i
aryvar
iabl
esel
i
minat
edbysubs
ti
tu
tioni
nt
other
ateequat
ion.
TheJ
i
nkf
rom Popul
ati
ont
oNe tBi
r
thRat
enowhasanambi
guoussF
gn,
apoorPr
act
ice.
Corr
ect l
ncorr
ect

･
もし /
/5' -
Food

Popul
ati
on-I NTEGRAL(NetBl
rthRat
e,Popu
lat
i
ont
｡
) Po
pu 一
at
ion-lNTEGRAL(Ne
tBi
rt
hRate,Popu
lat
i
ont
｡
)
NetBi
rt
hRa t
e-Pop u
lat
i
on'Fr act
i
ona=∋i
r
thRat
e NetBi
rt
hRate-Po p
ula
ti
on'f(
Food
/Popul
at
ion)
Fr
acti
onalBi
rt
hRa t
e-i Foodp
( erCapi
t
a)
FoodperCapi
ta-F ood/
Popu一a
ti
o n

Iha veof tens eenpe o plei nwor kshopsdr awt hedi agrams howni nt het opof
Figur e6- 8. The yc oITe Ctlyre cognl Zethatt heratea twhi chc ustome rsa repr oc essed
isthepr oduc tofSe rviceSt aff,Pr oductivlty,andWo rkwe eka ndt ha thi ghe rque ues
ofwa i
tlngC ustome rsl ea dt ol onge rhour sa ndhi ringofa ddi t
iona ls t
a ff
,f orml ng
twoba lanc l
ngf eedba cks .Butof tenpe opl edr awi nforma tionf e edba cksdi r
ec t
ly
from t hewo rkwe eka nds ervices taft ot hes t
oc kofCus t
ome rsAwa it
l ngSe r
vic e,
asslgnl ngt he m ane ga t
ivepol a rit
y.The yr e
asont ha ta ni ncreas eint hewor kwe ek
ors taffleve lde creasest henumbe rofc us tome rsrema inlngi ntheque ue, thusc los -
ingt hene ga ti
vef eedba ckl oops .
Thec orrec tdiagr ami ss howni nthel owe rpa ne lofFi gur e6% Theonl ywa y
cus t
ome rsc ane xitt hes tocki svi athede parturer ate.Thede pa rturer a t
ei st he
produc toft henu mbe rofs taff, he
t i
rwor kwe ek, a
ndt he i
rpr oduc tivity. Ani ncrease
ina nyoft heseI nput sboos tst her ateatwhi chc ustome rsa repr oc es seda ndl ea ve
theq ueue.Theba lanc lngf e edba cksa res t
il
lpr ese nt:Al onge rque ueofwa itlng
cus t
ome rsl ea dstol onge rhour sa ndmor es taffanda ninc r
e asei nt hepr oc esslng
rate.Theva lvec ontr ollingt heout lowf
f romt hes toc kofwa iti
ngC us tome rsope ns
wi der,a ndc ustome rsde pa r
tt heque uea tahi ghe rr ate.Thepol aritie soft hei nfor
一

na tionl inksi nt hef e edba ckl oo pa rea llPos i

tive, buta ni ncr e
a sei nt hec ustome r
depa rturer atec ausesar e duc ti
oni nthes tockofwa itl
ngC ustome rsbe causet hede-
par t
ur era t
ei sa nout lowf
f r
om t hes t
ock.