año enero febrero marzo abril mayo junio julio agosto septiemb

1988 26.6 42.7 40.8 72.1 146.2 250.6 251.2 176 71.6
1989 31.7 26.6 30.7 42.1 132.9 166 335.3 196.6 51.2
1990 30 32.7 20.2 69.9 110.2 309.8 225 80.8 27.8
1991 34.8 22.1 21.5 90.3 85 167.4 233.9 78.8 22.4
1992 26.5 41.5 28.6 73.4 103.1 181.3 215.2 61.4 18.9
1993 56.8 49.9 19.2 83.2 99.9 108.9 207.9 120.1 74.1
1994 62.3 54.8 30 111.3 174.7 479.5 255.7 87 40.1
1995 40.9 43.9 29 126.3 228 267.2 212.2 90.4 28.6
1996 44.7 40.7 52.7 100 153.7 301.1 244.6 115.8 59.5
1997 124.8 55.2 132.1 166.9 264.5 269.6 131.4 68.3 32.7
1998 90.8 66.3 104.5 113.2 166.6 366.3 191 96.4 69.8
1999 207.1 86.4 119.6 159.4 288.1 418.3 263.9 114 66.7
2000 100.6 90 114.8 147.3 386 455.3 221.4 53.7 64.1
2001 136.1 77.3 135 181.8 415.5 528.8 174.8 73.9 59.7
2002 171.6 113.8 166 227.9 405.9 451.8 194.7 76.3 62.7
2003 170.7 85.5 122.7 238.9 353.7 527.9 244.1 54.9 56.3
2004 180.7 98.9 142.6 209.8 291 277.2 200 67.7 74
2005 224.1 149.3 170.4 182.4 250 486 427.7 113.9 74.5
2006 227.5 124.6 179 282.7 271.8 353.5 319.9 173.6 84.3
2007 153.1 100.3 179.6 191.5 511.4 540.5 183.3 83.7 93.2
2008 187.8 97.5 180.2 257.6 461.1 612.4 254.8 98.7 100.4
2009 148.7 135.8 210 421.9 691.7 430.9 234.5 98.5 104.4
2010 154.3 119.6 262.7 354.1 525.8 519.2 219.1 98.3 106.4
2011 164.2 115.9 235.9 389.7 268.4 325.6 433.5 158 106.7
2012 244.1 130.9 201.3 262.6 526.6 597.6 350.1 93.8 100.6
2013 200.4 137.1 285.1 240.9 496.5 733.3 296 83 117.6
2014 207.6 152.9 250.6 321.2 426.9 453.9 335.6 133.2 111.3
2015 212 134.8 226.5 273.3 465.1 677.3 415.1 107.3 131
2016 222.3 176.2 251 369.6 483.5 566.3 278.8 100.4 139.4
octubre noviembre diciembre
17.8 21.1 12.5
28.2 31.1 19
22.2 15.1 22.4
17.2 20.7 20.1
47.7 13.2 18.6
55.9 33.5 58.2
51.1 28 27
28.5 19.1 27.5
40.6 23.7 26
71.4 45.6 97.4
86 77.2 120.7
91.7 74.6 65.3
74.2 74.2 113.9
86.3 64.6 94.3
86.7 42.1 115.5
70.8 88.4 118.7
103.5 117 82.5
93.3 116.8 180
95.8 123.2 127.6
95.5 130.5 172.6
111.8 162.4 269.3
126 188 200.8
110.2 123.9 237.9
132.6 122.3 171.8
138.8 133.1 263.9
137.8 106 213.1
135 127.5 240.9
138.4 113.3 257.3
149.4 177.4 251.5
año enero febrero marzo abril mayo junio
2010 154.3 119.6 262.7 354.1 525.8 519.2
2011 164.2 115.9 235.9 389.7 268.4 325.6
2012 244.1 130.9 201.3 262.6 526.6 597.6
2013 200.4 137.1 285.1 240.9 496.5 733.3
2014 207.6 152.9 250.6 321.2 426.9 453.9
2015 212 134.8 226.5 273.3 465.1 677.3
2016 222.3 176.2 251 369.6 483.5 566.3

año mes produccion total movil promedio movil pro_mo_cen % valor real
1 154.3 --
2 119.6 --
3 262.7 --
4 354.1 --
5 525.8 --
6 519.2 2831.5 236.0 --
2010
7 219.1 2841.4 236.8 236.4 92.69%
8 98.3 2837.7 236.5 236.6 41.54%
9 106.4 2810.9 234.2 235.4 45.21%
10 110.2 2846.5 237.2 235.7 46.75%
11 123.9 2589.1 215.8 226.5 54.71%
12 237.9 2395.5 199.6 207.7 114.54%
1 164.2 2609.9 217.5 208.6 78.73%
2 115.9 2669.6 222.5 220.0 52.69%
3 235.9 2669.9 222.5 222.5 106.03%
4 389.7 2692.3 224.4 223.4 174.42%
5 268.4 2690.7 224.2 224.3 119.67%
6 325.6 2624.6 218.7 221.5 147.02%
2011
7 433.5 2704.5 225.4 222.0 195.23%
8 158 2719.5 226.6 226.0 69.91%
9 106.7 2684.9 223.7 225.2 47.38%
10 132.6 2557.8 213.2 218.4 60.70%
11 122.3 2816 234.7 223.9 54.62%
12 171.8 3088 257.3 246.0 69.84%
1 244.1 3004.6 250.4 253.9 96.16%
2 130.9 2940.4 245.0 247.7 52.84%
3 201.3 2934.3 244.5 244.8 82.24%
4 262.6 2940.5 245.0 244.8 107.28%
5 526.6 2951.3 245.9 245.5 214.51%
6 597.6 3043.4 253.6 249.8 239.25%
2012
7 350.1 2999.7 250.0 251.8 139.04%
8 93.8 3005.9 250.5 250.2 37.49%
9 100.6 3089.7 257.5 254.0 39.61%
10 138.8 3068 255.7 256.6 54.10%
 11 133.1 3037.9 253.2 254.4 52.32%
12 263.9 3173.6 264.5 258.8 101.97%
1 200.4 3119.5 260.0 262.2 76.43%
2 137.1 3108.7 259.1 259.5 52.83%
3 285.1 3125.7 260.5 259.8 109.75%
4 240.9 3124.7 260.4 260.4 92.50%
5 496.5 3097.6 258.1 259.3 191.50%
6 733.3 3046.8 253.9 256.0 286.43%
2013
7 296 3054 254.5 254.2 116.44%
8 83 3069.8 255.8 255.2 32.53%
9 117.6 3035.3 252.9 254.4 46.23%
10 137.8 3115.6 259.6 256.3 53.77%
11 106 3046 253.8 256.7 41.29%
12 213.1 2766.6 230.6 242.2 87.99%
1 207.6 2806.2 233.9 232.2 89.41%
2 152.9 2856.4 238.0 235.9 64.80%
3 250.6 2850.1 237.5 237.8 105.40%
4 321.2 2847.3 237.3 237.4 135.30%
5 426.9 2868.8 239.1 238.2 179.24%
6 453.9 2896.6 241.4 240.2 188.95%
2014
7 335.6 2901 241.8 241.6 138.93%
8 133.2 2882.9 240.2 241.0 55.27%
9 111.3 2858.8 238.2 239.2 46.52%
10 135 2810.9 234.2 236.2 57.15%
11 127.5 2849.1 237.4 235.8 54.06%
12 240.9 3072.5 256.0 246.7 97.64%
1 212 3152 262.7 259.4 81.74%
2 134.8 3126.1 260.5 261.6 51.53%
3 226.5 3145.8 262.2 261.3 86.67%
4 273.3 3149.2 262.4 262.3 104.20%
5 465.1 3135 261.3 261.8 177.63%
6 677.3 3151.4 262.6 261.9 258.58%
2015
7 415.1 3161.7 263.5 263.0 157.81%
8 107.3 3203.1 266.9 265.2 40.46%
9 131 3227.6 269.0 267.9 48.89%
10 138.4 3323.9 277.0 273.0 50.70%
11 113.3 3342.3 278.5 277.8 40.79%
12 257.3 3231.3 269.3 273.9 93.94%
1 222.3 3095 257.9 263.6 84.33%
2 176.2 3088.1 257.3 257.6 68.39%
3 251 3096.5 258.0 257.7 97.40%
4 369.6 3107.5 259.0 258.5 142.98%
5 483.5 3171.6 264.3 261.6 184.80%
6 566.3 3165.8 263.8 264.1 214.46%
2016
7 278.8 --
 2016

8 100.4 --
9 139.4 --
10 149.4 --
11 177.4 --
12 251.5 --

Calculo del Indice estacional o temporal

año enero febrero marzo abril mayo

2010 -- -- -- -- --
2011 0.7873 0.5269 1.0603 1.7442 1.1967
2012 0.9616 0.5284 0.8224 1.0728 2.1451
2013 0.7643 0.5283 1.0975 0.925 1.915
2014 0.8941 0.648 1.054 1.353 1.7924
2015 0.8174 0.5153 0.8667 1.042 1.7763
2016 0.8433 0.8433 0.974 1.4298 1.848

Uso de las medias modificadas

mes enero febrero marzo abril mayo

media modificada 1.67 1.12 1.98 2.45 3.67

indice constante de indice

mes desajustado ajuste temporal

1 167% 0.50 83.750%

2 112% 0.50 55.920%
3 198% 0.50 99.100%
4 245% 0.50 122.720%
5 367% 0.50 183.720%
6 451% 0.50 225.830%
7 276% 0.50 138.370%
8 87% 0.50 43.790%
9 93% 0.50 46.440%
10 108% 0.50 54.050%
11 101% 0.50 50.690%
12 191% 0.50 95.610%
2394% 1200%

Calculo de la constante de estacionalidad

Suma deseada 1200%
Suma de indices 2394%

Constante de estacionalidad 0.5012

 produccion produccion
x año mes produccion desestacionalizad pronosticada
a

-41.5 1 154.3 184.24 227.25

-40.5 2 119.6 213.88 227.75
-39.5 3 262.7 265.09 228.25
-38.5 4 354.1 288.54 228.75
-37.5 5 525.8 286.20 229.25
-36.5 6 519.2 229.91 229.75
2010
-35.5 7 219.1 158.34 230.25
-34.5 8 98.3 224.48 230.75
-33.5 9 106.4 229.11 231.24
-32.5 10 110.2 203.89 231.74
-31.5 11 123.9 244.43 232.24
-30.5 12 237.9 248.82 232.74
-29.5 1 164.2 196.06 233.24
-28.5 2 115.9 207.26 233.74
-27.5 3 235.9 238.04 234.24
-26.5 4 389.7 317.55 234.74
-25.5 5 268.4 146.09 235.24
-24.5 6 325.6 144.18 235.74
2011
-23.5 7 433.5 313.29 236.24
-22.5 8 158 360.81 236.73
-21.5 9 106.7 229.76 237.23
-20.5 10 132.6 245.33 237.73
-19.5 11 122.3 241.27 238.23
-18.5 12 171.8 179.69 238.73
-17.5 1 244.1 291.46 239.23
-16.5 2 130.9 234.08 239.73
-15.5 3 201.3 203.13 240.23
-14.5 4 262.6 213.98 240.73
-13.5 5 526.6 286.63 241.23
-12.5 6 597.6 264.62 241.73
2012
-11.5 7 350.1 253.02 242.22
-10.5 8 93.8 214.20 242.72
-9.5 9 100.6 216.62 243.22
-8.5 10 138.8 256.80 243.72
-7.5 11 133.1 262.58 244.22
-6.5 12 263.9 276.02 244.72
-5.5 1 200.4 239.28 245.22
-4.5 2 137.1 245.17 245.72
-3.5 3 285.1 287.69 246.22
-2.5 4 240.9 196.30 246.72
-1.5 5 496.5 270.25 247.22
-0.5 6 733.3 324.71 247.71
2013
 2013
0.5 7 296 213.92 248.21
1.5 8 83 189.54 248.71
2.5 9 117.6 253.23 249.21
3.5 10 137.8 254.95 249.71
4.5 11 106 209.11 250.21
5.5 12 213.1 222.88 250.71
6.5 1 207.6 247.88 251.21
7.5 2 152.9 273.43 251.71
8.5 3 250.6 252.88 252.21
9.5 4 321.2 261.73 252.71
10.5 5 426.9 232.36 253.20
11.5 6 453.9 200.99 253.70
2014
12.5 7 335.6 242.54 254.20
13.5 8 133.2 304.18 254.70
14.5 9 111.3 239.66 255.20
15.5 10 135 249.77 255.70
16.5 11 127.5 251.53 256.20
17.5 12 240.9 251.96 256.70
18.5 1 212 253.13 257.20
19.5 2 134.8 241.06 257.70
20.5 3 226.5 228.56 258.20
21.5 4 273.3 222.70 258.69
22.5 5 465.1 253.16 259.19
23.5 6 677.3 299.92 259.69
2015
24.5 7 415.1 299.99 260.19
25.5 8 107.3 245.03 260.69
26.5 9 131 282.08 261.19
27.5 10 138.4 256.06 261.69
28.5 11 113.3 223.52 262.19
29.5 12 257.3 269.11 262.69
30.5 1 222.3 265.43 263.19
31.5 2 176.2 315.09 263.69
32.5 3 251 253.28 264.18
33.5 4 369.6 301.17 264.68
34.5 5 483.5 263.17 265.18
35.5 6 566.3 250.76 265.68
2016
36.5 7 278.8 201.49 266.18
37.5 8 100.4 229.28 266.68
38.5 9 139.4 300.17 267.18
39.5 10 149.4 276.41 267.68
40.5 11 177.4 349.97 268.18
41.5 12 251.5 263.05 268.68

a 247.963935
b 0.49909489
 ?PRONOSTICO PARA DOS AÑOS?:

pronostico produccion
x año mes desestacionalizad
pronosticada
o

42.5 1 269.175468 225.434454

43.5 2 269.674563 150.802015
44.5 3 270.173658 267.742095
45.5 4 270.672752 332.169602
46.5 5 271.171847 498.196918
47.5 6 271.670942 613.514489
2017
48.5 7 272.170037 376.60168
49.5 8 272.669132 119.401813
50.5 9 273.168227 126.859325
51.5 10 273.667322 147.917187
52.5 11 274.166417 138.974957
53.5 12 274.665512 262.607696
54.5 1 275.164606 62531.5686
55.5 2 275.663701 62782.571
56.5 3 276.162796 63034.0716
57.5 4 276.661891 63286.0704
58.5 5 277.160986 63538.5674
59.5 6 277.660081 63791.5626
2018
60.5 7 278.159176 64045.056
61.5 8 278.658271 64299.0475
62.5 9 279.157366 64553.5373
63.5 10 279.65646 64808.5252
64.5 11 280.155555 65064.0113
65.5 12 280.65465 65319.9956
julio agosto septiembre octubre noviembre diciembre
219.1 98.3 106.4 110.2 123.9 237.9
433.5 158 106.7 132.6 122.3 171.8
350.1 93.8 100.6 138.8 133.1 263.9
296 83 117.6 137.8 106 213.1
335.6 133.2 111.3 135 127.5 240.9
415.1 107.3 131 138.4 113.3 257.3
278.8 100.4 139.4 149.4 177.4 251.5

-- -- -- -- -- -- 0.9269 0.4154

0.7873 0.5269 1.0603 1.7442 1.1967 1.4702 1.9523 0.6991

0.9616 0.5284 0.8224 1.0728 2.1451 2.3925 1.3904 0.3749

0.7643 0.5283 1.0975 0.925 1.915 2.8643 1.1644 0.3253

0.8941 0.648 1.054 1.353 1.7924 1.8895 1.3893 0.5527

0.8174 0.5153 0.8667 1.042 1.7763 2.5858 1.5781 0.4046

0.8433 0.6839 0.974 1.4298 1.848 2.1446 -- --

junio julio agosto septiembre octubre noviembre diciembre
-- 0.9269 0.4154 0.4521 0.4675 0.5471 1.1454
1.4702 1.9523 0.6991 0.4738 0.607 0.5462 0.6984
2.3925 1.3904 0.3749 0.3961 0.541 0.5232 1.0197
2.8643 1.1644 0.3253 0.4623 0.5377 0.4129 0.8799
1.8895 1.3893 0.5527 0.4652 0.5715 0.5406 0.9764
2.5858 1.5781 0.4046 0.4889 0.507 0.4079 0.9394
2.1446 -- -- -- -- -- --

junio julio agosto septiembre octubre noviembre diciembre

4.51 2.76 0.87 0.93 1.08 1.01 1.91
0.4521 0.4675 0.5471 1.1454

0.4738 0.607 0.5462 0.6984

0.3961 0.541 0.5232 1.0197

 0.4623 0.5377 0.4129 0.8799

0.4652 0.5715 0.5406 0.9764

0.4889 0.507 0.4079 0.9394

-- -- -- --
2010-1 2010-2 2010-3 2010-4 2010-5 2010-6 2010-7 2010-8
154.3 119.6 262.7 354.1 525.8 519.2 219.1 98.3
164.2 115.9 235.9 389.7 268.4 325.6 433.5 158
244.1 130.9 201.3 262.6 526.6 597.6 350.1 93.8
200.4 137.1 285.1 240.9 496.5 733.3 296 83
207.6 152.9 250.6 321.2 426.9 453.9 335.6 133.2
212 134.8 226.5 273.3 465.1 677.3 415.1 107.3
222.3 176.2 251 369.6 483.5 566.3 278.8 100.4
2010-9 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-1 2016-1 2016-2 2016-3
106.4 110.2 123.9 237.9
106.7 132.6 122.3 171.8 2011
100.6 138.8 133.1 263.9
117.6 137.8 106 213.1
111.3 135 127.5 240.9
131 138.4 113.3 257.3
139.4 149.4 177.4 251.5
2016-4 2016-5 2016-6 2016-7 2016-8 2016-9 2016-10 2016-11
2016-12