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BP Magazine Innovations 8 emerging technologies

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Innovations -

Castrol lubricants on
Mars mission

Battery technology

Modelling a lower
carbon future

The rise of the robots

The tech identifying

sounds underground

Transformative trends

Artificial intelligence
in the energy industry

The journey of a
Last edited: 26 November 2015
natural gas molecule

The next-gen tech that What are some of the emerging technologies that have the potential to transform
matters the way energy is produced and used? And what might they mean for BP and the
energy industry as a whole?
Turbine technology

Venturing into the

future

Making the invisible,

visible

> Energy game-changer?

Latest technology on
Eight things to know about today's battery technology and its future potential
new ships

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The science behind

ultra-thin membranes
Fluid dynamics
science at BP Institute
Ocean monitoring
with robot technology
None of us has a crystal ball to see what the future will look like. What we can be sure of though is that the world is
changing rapidly and our lives will be very different by 2050. From mobility to healthcare, communications to education,
as Bill Gates has put it: “Innovation is moving at a scarily fast pace.”
Individuals and industries alike will need to adapt to these new developments, to make the most of opportunities. As BP
launches its first Technology Outlook, group chief executive Bob Dudley says: “In the corporate world, history tells us
that companies that fail to anticipate or adapt to new technologies fail to survive. On the other hand, companies with
leading technologies are often the most competitive and successful.”

Making new fuels with

Emerging technologies present business risks and opportunities for any industry. The energy sector is no exception.
ACTIVE technology
Although radical innovation and disruption in this industry are relatively infrequent, transformational change can take
place – often within relatively short timeframes and with dramatic consequences.
Sand control
technology So, what are some of the future trends and innovations that may make an impact on the world of energy? BP’s
emerging technology manager, Dan Walker, highlights eight breakthroughs that might be significant. This is what the
Reinventing the oil future may look like…
change

Castrol’s technology
1. Quantum leap: beyond silicon computing
edge

8 emerging
technologies

Bloodhound
Supersonic Car

Deepwater technology
vision

Cars of the future

Big Data

Renewables
technology

Drones in the skies

Materials science with

Why?
ICAM

Trusted advisor
The recovery factor
Castrol - satisfying
Curiosity
Low salinity water
brings award for BP
Unlike some other emerging technology areas where progress is less certain, computing innovation is set to continue at
the rapid pace we’ve already witnessed. Back in 1970, Moore’s Law predicted that overall processing power for
computers would roughly double every two years – and that has generally continued to hold true. Even if the pace of
change slows, new applications provide ongoing potential for digitization to transform the way people live and work, as
smart-phones have demonstrated.
The next leap in computing technology looks set to be based on quantum mechanics – the science of atomic structure
and function. Quantum computing uses the ‘qubit’, or quantum bit, which can hold an infinite number of values.
Today?

Exponential increases in the power and speed of computers – along with decreasing costs – are already having a
Observations +
significant impact on the energy business, and beyond. As the complexity of technology has evolved, we’ve turned to
intricate algorithms to process, model and analyse data. This already requires massive computing power: at BP, we
Print archive
opened our High-Performance Computing Center in Houston, US, two years ago. It’s home to one of the world’s largest
supercomputers for commercial research – with a total memory of 1,000 terabytes and disk space of 23.5 petabytes, the
equivalent of more than 40,000 average laptop computers. The centre serves as a worldwide hub to process and

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manage massive amounts of geophysical data, helping our scientists to ‘see’ more clearly what lies beneath the Earth’s
surface.

Tomorrow?

Quantum technologies have the potential to process huge data sets at faster rates than today’s silicon-based, digital
computers can. They use electrons, or even polarized light, that can be interlinked to perform many operations at once.
While currently at an embryonic stage of development, these technologies have been identified as having significant
potential.

2. Number crunching: data analytics

Why?

The volume of data in the world is growing at an unprecedented rate. Even the vocabulary used to describe it has to
expand to keep up; where once it was ‘Megabyte’, terms such as ‘Yottabyte’ now exist. To put it in perspective, it would
take approximately 11 trillion years to download a Yottabyte file from the internet using high-power broadband. These
are the type of volumes that we may be dealing with in the decades to come.

But data only becomes useful when it can be handled properly; the mathematical treatment of data – or analytics –
helps companies to make faster, better and more focused business decisions in a world where the quantity of data could
become overwhelming.

Today?

In the energy industry, increased use of sensors and real-time data acquisition has already seen exponential growth in
the volume, variety and velocity of data gathered from operations. For example, BP is using big data analytics
technology to screen huge geoscience data sets – in a project for the UK North Sea, data from 5,000 wells was
analysed in just a few seconds, whereas a 100-well dataset would normally take a geologist a month to analyse.

Tomorrow?

The potential to process and analyse big data in seconds, rather than months, will continue to open up vast
opportunities: for BP and others, it may revolutionise the drilling of oil and gas wells, optimise production and enhance
the overall performance of operations. In short, the future lies in gathering these huge volumes of data, understanding it
to draw useful insights and then optimizing our business activities as a result. This is commonly referred to as the
industrial internet of things – where the integration of complex machinery with networked sensors and software allows
industry to capture and analyse data and use it to optimise operations.

3. Super-charged: better batteries for vehicles

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Why?

Today’s car manufacturers are juggling competing demands for their latest models: customers want fewer emissions,
along with improved fuel efficiency. Battery technologies may provide the answers for both.

Today?

Battery technology for transportation is already advancing, with particular progress in reliability, costs, safety and
capacity for enhanced range. In turn, these developments are having an impact on the forecast production of electric
vehicles, as the technology allows batteries to become more competitive with the internal combustion engine.

Tomorrow?

Next-generation batteries, such as rechargeable lithium sulphur batteries, are expected to increase energy capacity
threefold by 2025, as well as reduce vehicle weight and cost. Continued development is supported by regulatory
pressures for greater fuel economy and lower tailpipe emissions.

Significant improvements in battery technology would increase the use of hybrid and electric vehicles, thereby also
influencing future fossil fuel demand in the transport sector. BP’s models suggest that combined hybrid and
battery/electric vehicle sales may account for 10% of global sales by 2023-4. Furthermore, projections show that the
cost of running an electric vehicle which uses battery power will fall from 26.2 US cents per kilometre in 2012, to 14.3
cents in 2050.

4. I, robot: automation via robotics

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Why?

Automation may affect many aspects of life in the years to come. For the energy industry specifically, applications may
include deploying robots to inspect difficult-to-access elements such as offshore risers, and piloting unmanned aerial
systems – or drones – into areas that are challenging for human intervention. But, automation is also likely to become a
staple of everyday life. Self-driving - or autonomous – vehicles are just one example: they could shake up the
transportation sector in a big way, with impacts on consumers, energy consumption and information technology. As Dr
Steven Griffiths of the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology puts it: “It’s going to change the way we live.”

Today?

Research and development in the automation sphere has gained traction in recent years, with technology giants such as
Google and vehicle manufacturers such as Mercedes leading the efforts. In fact, Google’s self-driving prototype cars
have already notched up more than one million miles on the roads of Mountain View, California, and Austin, Texas.
Elsewhere, partially-autonomous vehicles are making their way to market and many modern cars have automated
mechanisms for specific functions.

Tomorrow?

High levels of automation are not expected in the very near future, but at least one car manufacturer has stated they will
have a fully autonomous vehicle available by 2025. Experts predict that a decade after that, a large fraction of the car
market will be at least partially autonomous.

However, these predictions don’t allow any precise evaluation of the final impact of this technology on transport fuel
demand or the future fuel mix. Automation is likely to have varying effects on the cost of transport, congestion, car
ownership models and travel mileage, but nevertheless the technology does offer the possibility of fundamentally
changing the transportation sector.

Image credit: Google

5. Off the grid: fuel cells

Why?

Fuel cells rely on hydrogen as their energy source, so this technology goes hand-in-hand with the development of
infrastructure and storage of hydrogen [see #6]. Fuel cells offer more efficient electricity generation, compared to
combustion methods, with fewer emissions generated when the hydrogen is generated from low-carbon sources. Fuel-
cell vehicles typically have a potential range up to 500 kilometres, which would alleviate some of the ‘range anxiety’
inherent with today’s battery-powered electric vehicles.

Today?

The ‘stationary’ sector has led technology developments to date, with limited trials in transport. Stationary fuel cells
could offer a competitive alternative to battery systems, in areas such as telecoms, back-up systems and auxiliary power
units.
Fuel cell electric vehicles are also gaining popularity among automotive manufacturers, as they offer an acceptable
driving range and competitive fuel economy. However, the technology remains expensive – currently around four times
the cost of a conventional vehicle.

Tomorrow?

Despite some momentum in advances, the development of this technology – and the associated hydrogen infrastructure
– face a number of challenges, including how to produce hydrogen in bulk, at a low cost and from a low-carbon source.
There are also questions as to how highly-combustible hydrogen can be safely carried in vehicles, as well as how to
develop an efficient and cost-effective refuelling infrastructure. If these factors could be overcome, fuel cells would have
the potential to significantly change the energy mix of the transport sector.

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6. The first element: hydrogen infrastructure and storage

Why?

Hydrogen may offer a variety of uses as a low-carbon, renewable high-energy source. Those uses include as an
efficient energy storage method or in transport applications (for example, in fuel cells, as above) as an alternative to
hydrocarbons, with its zero exhaust emissions.

Today?

Hydrogen is produced at scale to create ammonia for use in fertilizers, as well as in the processing of crude oil to break
it down into refined products. The current technology relies on natural gas as the feedstock to make hydrogen –
alternative methods to produce it from low-carbon sources, such as solar or wind power, are at varying stages of
development.

Currently, hydrogen storage relies on compression and liquefaction, with industrial-scale facilities today in underground
salt caverns and aquifers, which demand large energy input and offer little scope for long-term improvements.

Tomorrow?

Developing economically viable, low-carbon sources of hydrogen faces many technical challenges. For hydrogen to play
a significant role as a transport fuel, a suitable storage mechanism also needs to be developed. With the right advances
in production and infrastructure though, hydrogen technologies may have a considerable impact on the fuel mix in the
power and transport sectors.

7. Empire of the sun: next-generation solar conversion

Why?

By 2050, the International Energy Agency forecasts that solar photovoltaic technology could generate up to 16% of the
world’s electricity. It also predicts that solar thermal electricity could provide another 11% on top of that. So, photovoltaic
energy remains a promising emerging technology.

Today?

Over the past six years, solar modules have reduced in cost by some 80%. However, these technologies remain very
capital intensive, with the majority of expenditure required upfront. Statistics from BP’s Technology Outlook show that in
2012, utility-scale solar photovoltaic technology was the most expensive way of generating electricity in North America,
compared to seven other sources, including onshore wind, nuclear and coal.

Tomorrow?

Current solar cells are mainly made of silicon-based materials. Breakthrough technologies such as perovskite (a
compound containing earth-abundant minerals) solar cells are evolving. Along with improved designs that convert a
higher percentage of light than today’s solar cells, these technologies promise higher efficiencies, lower cost and
flexibility in application. In addition, improvements in biotechnology are likely to improve agricultural performance,
enhancing the efficiency and scale of solar conversion to biomass.

Overall advances in this area may affect natural gas usage for electricity generation, as well as accelerate electrification
in the transport sector.

8. Attack of the clones: 3D printing

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Why?

In the seemingly short time it has been with us, 3D printing has raised a number of new possibilities, from
palaeontologists making replicas of dinosaur bones to would-be designers creating their own plastic shoes. For industry,
the prospect of low-cost printing of customized parts – in a range of materials – gives the technique plenty of potential.

Today?

Until now, the technology has mainly been used for prototyping. However, production of complex, tailored parts at a low
volume is on the increase, in fields such as aerospace, for example.

Tomorrow?

The oil and gas industry – and many others – see opportunities to use this technology, especially to produce parts on-
demand in a specific material. For example, 3D printers on an offshore facility may mean complex components can be
manufactured in remote locations, saving time and improving efficiency. Uses of 3D printing is set to grow over the next
10 years as applications are identified and opportunities arise with new materials and equipment.

Related content

> Number crunching with big data

> Technology at BP

> Energy trends: what’s the outlook for 2035?

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