St. Anthony Falls Laboratory Technical Paper No. 606, Series A Progress in the modeling of alluvial tans GARY PARKER, St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55414 USA ABSTRACT Alluvial fans are fan-shaped zones of sediment deposition associated with a transition from an erosional ot transportational upland to a depositional basin. The agents of formation of alluvial fans may be debris flows, channelized fluvial flows or unchannelized sheet flows. The debris flows may range from dense ones carrying, boulders to relatively thin mud flows. The fluvial flows may be in the meandering, wandering, anastomosing or braided configuration, and may be transitional to unchannelized sheet flows or mud flows. Here a descrip- tion of the many manifestations of alluvial fans is presented. The factors controlling fan development are dis- cussed, Engineering problems associated with fans are introduced. Progress in the experimental, theoretical and numerical modeling of fans is reviewed. Finally, suggestions for future research are presented. 1 A striking morphology created by water-sediment interaction Alluvial fans are fan-like deposits of sediment. They typically form whenever sediment is delivered in abundance to a depositional zone the width of which increases downslope. Fans may be formed by sediment laden rivers, debris flows, and sheet flows. The last of these are essentially unchan- nelized flood flows that cover a substantial fraction of fan area (but by no means the entire fan) dur- ing a single event. The Harvey Creek Fan in Papua New Guinea, shown in Fig. 1, has formed due to the repeated pas- sage of depositional debris flows resulting from the disposal of rock waste at the Ok ‘Tedi Copper Mine. ‘The deposit of each debris flow creates a tongue-like topographic high, Subsequent debris flows tend to avoid this high, and thus deposit elsewhere. It is by this mechanism that the deposits of debris flows eventually fill the available depositional space, so creating a characteristic fan-like morphology at a scale much larger than the individual flows. The relation between the depositional units of the individual flows and the morphology of the fan itself is illustrated in Fig, 2, which shows the Kamikamihori Fan in Japan (Ashida, 1982), The Hibbing Taconite Fan shown in Fig. 3 is in fact the tailings basin of an iron mine in Minnesota, USA (Parker et al., 1998a). The agent of deposition is an agglomeration of braided streams that are heavily Jaden with sand and silt sized tailings. At any given time only a small portion of the fan is occupied by flowing water. The constant deposition in the channels elevates the bed, causing the channels to migrate or avulse into previously dry areas. It is by this mechanism that the deposits of streams eventually fill the available depositional space, again creating a fan-like morphology at a much larger scale. The relation between the individual channels and the morphology of the fan itself is illustrated in Fig. 4, which shows a history of channel avulsion at the mouth of the Yellow River, China from 1855 to 1976 (Pang and Si, 1983). The diagram shows at least twelve of the river channels which have built up the fan over time. Because both the Hibbing ‘Taconite Fan and the fan at the mouth of the Yellow River end in standing water, they are properly termed fan-deltas. ‘Open for discussion till June 30, 2000. JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 805Fig. 1. View of the fan at the confluence of Harvey Creek and the Ok Mani in Papua New Guinea in 1998. The fan has been built out by successive debris flows formed ftom waste rock from the Ok Tedi Copper Mine. The fan is reworked by both rainfall and fluvial action; it grades into an aggrading braided fluvial zone just downstream of the image. The dominant direction of sediment transport is from top to bottom, and then to the right, Komnikamihori Fan 11979) Fig. 2. Diagram showing the structure of debris flow lobes on the Kamikamihori Fan, Japan (Ashida, 1982). 806 JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6Fig, 3. View of the fan inside the tailings basin of the Hibbing Taconite Mine, Minnesota, USA (Parker et al., 1998a). ‘Changes of River Course of Yellow River Fan-Delta in Recent History 4+ 1855.6-1689.3 2. 1889.3-1897.5 3 18974 4. 1904. 5. 1917, 6- 1926. 7. 1926. 8. 1934.8-1953.7 9. 1953.7-1960.8 10- 1960.8-1964.1 114- 1964.1-1976.5, 12-1976.6 ‘Shoreline Fig. 4, Illustration of the history of channel avulsion of the Yellow River Fan-Delta from 1855 to 1976 (Pang and Si, 1983). ‘The examples shown above have been selected for a specific reason. The Harvey Creek fan is an artificial debris flow dominated fan created by mining activity. The Kamikamihori Fan shows a nat- ural counterpart. The Hibbing Taconite Fan-Delta is an artificial fluvial fan, again created by min- ing activity. The Yellow River Fan-Delta is a natural counterpart (albeit one that is partially affected by engineering works). Fans thus may be formed due to the activities of humans as well as naturally, They are of engineering as well as geomorphic interest. JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 807Here a fan is defined to be a fan-like depositional morphology created by gravity flows of sediment- ‘water mixtures, the widths of which are much smaller than that of the fan itself. That is, a fan is a fan if it looks more or less like the Japanese fan of Figure Sa. In a paper that is otherwise of considerable interest, Blair and McPherson (1994) have claimed that only fan-like morphologies created by cata- strophic fluid-sediment gravity flows such as debris flows, sheet floods and rock avalanches can be called fans, Their term for fan-like morphologies created by rivers is “rivers”. 'The inadequacy of this terminology is readily illustrated to the image of the fan-delta of the Kurobe River, Japan shown in Fig. 5b. The river, which in this case has a highly braided morphology, clearly occupies only a small portion of the fan at any given time, and thus must avulse across the fan to create it. It thus becomes important to distinguish between the morphology (the fan) and the much smaller agent of its construc tion (the river). The fan can be seen in the figure to be intensively used for agriculture, necessitating the construction of levees to prevent the destruction of farmland by river flooding and avulsion. (b) Fig. 5. a) A Japanese fan of the type that provides relief on a hot day. b) Another Japanese fan, i.e. the fan- delta of the Kurobe River (photo courtesy S. Ikeda). 808 JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6‘There is a limiting case for which fans need not be fan-like, An image of part of Death Valley, USA is shown in Fig, 6 (Hooke, 1967, 1968, 1972). Individual fans with clear fan-like morphologies can be seen along the valley side at the bottom of the image. Allong the valley side at the top of the image, however, the fans formed from individual sources of sediment have coalesced to describe a Jine fan, otherwise known as a bajada. Whipple and Dunne (1992) have described the morphology of the Owens Valley Bajada, California, USA in terms of debris flow theology. ‘The issue of terminology notwithstanding, Blair and McPherson (1994) provide a comprehensive and valuable bibliography of field studies of alluvial fans. Other summaries of field research can be found in Rachocki (1981) and Nemec and Stee! (1988) Fig. 6. View of Death Valley, California, USA (photo courtesy R, Hooke). 2. Scale invariance in fan morphology If the goal of science is to seek that which is universal among what appears to be particular, perhaps one of the most intriguing manifestations of science is scale invariance. Fig, 7a shows a model allu- vial fan formed in the laboratory (Whipple et al., 1998). The radius of the basin is 5 m. Fig, 7b shows a small alluvial fan emanating from a gully in an area in Idaho, USA recently burnt by a for- est fire. The scale is on the order of 50 meters. Fig. 7c shows the Copper Creek Fan in Death Val- ley, USA (which can also be seen in Fig. 6), which has an extent on the order of two thousand meters. Fig. 7 shown one of the larger active alluvial fans in the world, the Kosi Fan, India, ema- nating from the Himalaya Mountains (Gole and Chitale, 1966; Wells and Dorr, 1987). ‘The scale is on the order of 100,000 meters. The element of scale invariance is clearly manifested. JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL, 37, 1999, NO. 6 809810 JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6Fig. 7, a) Experimental fan in a basin with a radius of 5 m (Whipple et al., 1998). b) View of a small fan in Idaho, USA forming downstream of a gully emanating from an area recently denuded by a forest fire, The trees offer an estimate of scale. c) View of the Copper Creek Fan, Death Valley, California, USA (photo courtesy R. Hooke). This fan can also be seen in Fig. 6. d) View of the Kosi Fan, India obtained from satellite photography. JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 811Itis not meant to imply here that each fan in Figs. 72~7d is a precise scale model of every other fan shown therein. In particular the Kosi Fan is a fluvial fan, whereas the Copper Creek Fan consists of debris flow deposits that have been partially reworked by fluvial action. Blair and McPherson (1994) have provided copious evidence to the effect that debris flow fans have slopes that are typi- cally in excess of 0.04 (2.3°), whereas fluvial fans (i.e. what they term “rivers called fans”) typi- cally have slopes less than 0.01 (0.57°). In point of fact, it is very hard to create subaerial debris flows sufficiently fluid to propagate at slopes less than 0,04. In the case of rivers, on the other hand, at slopes much in excess of 0.01 the capacity for the transport of sediment becomes so large that natural mechanisms are usually insufficient to produce the supply of sediment necessary to create a long-term depositional surface. The regimes are not, however, entirely mutually exclusive. The debris flow fan shown in Fig. 1 has formed at the confluence of Harvey Creek with the larger Ok Mani. Not far downstream of the downstream end of the image the Ok Mani becomes a depositional braided stream with a slope in excess of 0.04. That is, the zone of debris flow deposits grades into a depositional fluvial zone. This is possible because the supply of rock waste from the Ok Tedi mine is on the order of 60 Mt/year, and is essentially continuous due to continuous mine operation. 3. Some engineering implications of fans ‘Two examples of fans in an engineering perspective have already been presented. In the case of the Harvey Creek Fan associated with the Ok Tedi Copper Mine (Fig. 1), the fan serves to store a con- siderable amount (though by no means a majority) of copper-bearing sediment that would other- wise be delivered downstream, In the case of the fan-delta of the Hibbing Taconite Mine, (Fig. 3) the perimeter of the tailings basin is gradually built up over time so that no tailings escape, thus pro- viding quasi-permanent storage. Fans are built up as the epicenter of deposition moves laterally in time, always seeking the lowest topography. This fundamental fact renders fans unstable at geomorphic time scales. This instability can often be manifested at engineering time scale as well. Fig. 8 illustrates the Boundary Creek fan on the South Island of New Zealand. A flood-induced avulsion has destroyed the approaches to the bridge across what used to be the main channel on the fan. At a much larger scale, the Kosi River of India Fig. 74) has caused widespread destruction across its densely populated alluvial fan as it has migrated and avulsed across it (Fig. 9, Gole and Chitale, 1966). Attempts to “jacket” it, or hold it in place by means of the construction of levees, cannot be successful for an indefinite period of time. As levees do not change the essentially depositional character of the river, the river bed continues to aggrade, thus eventually creating conditions for a catastrophic levee break and avulsion. An extreme case of channel aggradation on an alluvial fan due to levee construction is shown in Fig. 10. The fan in question is a fan-delta formed by a small river flowing into Lake Biwa, Japan. The fan is densely populated, with no open area into which the channel could avulse. Fig. 10a shows a view of the channel looking from the levee. Fig. 1b shows a view of the urbanized fan just behind the levee. The channel has aggraded so much that a tunnel has been constructed under the river in order to allow for passage from one side of the fan to the other. While the ambient sediment supply in Japan in the absence of control is often high, in the present case the supply was elevated by anthropogenic effects. That is, the upland catchment, which is composed of highly erodible weathered granite, was denuded due to logging for temple construction in the Heian period, approx- imately 1000 years ago. 812 JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6Fig. 8. View of a fan on Boundary Creek, South Island, New Zealand, where channel avulsion has washed out the approach to a bridge (photo courtesy S. Coleman). . i Fig. 9. Avulsion and migration of the Kosi River in recent time (from Gole and Chitale, 1966). JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 813Fig. 10. a) View of a leveed channel on a heavily urbanized fan-delta along the shores of Lake Biwa, Japan. 814 'b) View just behind the levee of the same channel. The levee has prevented avulsion, but the channel has aggraded to the point that it is necessary to tunnel below the river bed to provide a roadway from ‘one side of the fan to the other. JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6‘The disparity between engineering and geomorphic time scales on many fans can lead to misunderstand ing concerning risk on fans. The fan-delta of the Mississippi River, USA from Baton Rouge south has shifted and avulsed to form seven deltaic lobes over the last 5000 years (Reineck and Singh, 1975). Over the lifetime of a single engineer, however, the fan can give the illusion of being a fixed surface over which the river flows. In point of fact the Mississippi River is now overdue for an avulsion into the Atch- afalaya River, where it is attempting to form a new depositional lobe, A complete avulsion, however, would leave New Orleans unusable as a port. In addition, the intrusion of salt water up the abandoned channel would leave New Orleans without a supply of potable water (Kazmann & Johnson, 1980). The Old River Control Structure shown in Fig. 11 is an attempt to allow for a controlled diversion of part of the flow (and as much sediment as possible) down the Atchafalaya River, while preserving the present course of the Mississippi River as the main thread, While the engineer may succeed in controlling the avulsion in engineering time at this site, the avulsion is inevitable in geomorphic time. Fig. 11. View of the Mississippi River and the Old River Control Structure, Louisiana, USA. 4. The role of subsidence and compaction In the absence of any external limiting factors, fans with a supply of sediment that is continuous at geomorphic time scales will continue to aggrade and prograde, or build outward indefinitely, albeit at an ever decreasing rate. While fans tend to be much larger in scale than the agents of their con- struction, they in turn can be controlled by factors operating at an even larger scale. Zones of accu- mulation of fine-grained sediment such as many coastal plains are also zones of subsidence due to compaction under the weight of the deposit. A point in case is the Gulf Coast of the USA, into which the Mississippi River flows. Without a supply of sediment, such coastlines tend to slowly sink into the ocean, When allowed to avulse freely, deposition from the Mississippi River can more than counterbalance compaction over any currently active lobe of the fan-delta. When channelized, however, the river bed aggrades while the “protected” fan-delta sinks. Sinking due to compaction is a severe problem on many fine-grained fan-deltas around the world, including that of the Missis- sippi River. The problem can be exacerbated by the extraction of groundwater for consumptive use. At sufficiently long time scales tectonic subsidence can be even more important than compaction. Simply put, tectonic subsidence creates “holes” into which gravity-driven water-sediment flows are naturally guided. It thus creates an overall environment conducive to fan formation. JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 815The importance of tectonics to fan morphology was recognized at an early stage by such research- ers as Bull (1964) and Hooke (1968, 1972). Every continent is a patchwork of zones of tectonic uplift and subsidence. Uplift creates the potential energy difference which ultimately drives ero- sion, and thus sediment production, in upland areas. Although in general sediment deposits wher- ever the flow loses the capacity to carry it, in the long term sediment deposition tends to be strongly biased toward zones of tectonic subsidence. This is because in such zones the bottom falls out due to subsidence of the earth’s crust as the deposit builds up by sedimentation. As a result new accom- modation space is constantly being created for continued. sedimentation. Thus zones of tectonic subsidence not only create zones for sediment accumulation, but help to limit the areal spreading of such zones by “consuming” the sediment so buried. In this regard the work of Hooke (1968, 1972) is of particular interest because much of the focus is on Death Valley, USA where tectonism has been extremely active in recent geomorphic history. In par- ticular, Death Valley is a graben, i.e. a particular variety of a zone of subsidence which is created at a place where a continent is being pulled apart, The relatively high rate of subsidence is underlined by the fact that much of the basin is below sea level. The surrounding mountains are being uplifted, pro- viding a ready source of sediment in the presence of sufficient precipitation. The subsidence profile is not uniform across the basin. As a result, the fans at the base of the mountains on one side of the valley differ markedly from those on the other side, as can be readily seen in Fig. 6. Spatial and temporal patterns of subsidence can be quite complex, but within these complexities several relatively simple patterns can be identified. Whipple and Trayler (1996) provide an intro- duction to these in a form that should be accessible to most engineers. Of particular interest here is the possibility of a steady state equilibrium at geomorphic time scale between subsidence and sediment deposition, under which the fan no longer progrades. The implication is a perfect balance between the creation of accommodation space by subsidence and its filling by sediment deposition. The attainment of this geomorphic equilibrium provides no relief to the engineer, however; the filling that balances subsidence is accomplished by constant channel shift and avulsion across the fan itself. In addition to compaction and subsidence, other factors act as controls on fan morphology. These include long-term water and sediment supply, which are in turn affected by climate change, sedi- ment grain size distribution and, in the case of fan-deltas, base level variation (ie. variation in the elevation of the standing water at the distal end of the fan). A rising base level plays a role analo- gous to basin subsidence in terms of creating accommodation space and thus localizing the areal extent of the fan. A declining base level, declining sediment supply or increasing water supply can promote channel incision into the fan. Alluvial fans are of particular interest to stratigraphers. This is because the overall depositional environment that they constitute provides a buried record of past sedimentary events, The changes in the nature of their deposits provide a key to determining changes in such factors as sediment sup- ply, and thus climate change. 5 An amusing example of a fan influenced by tectonics ‘The Okavango Fan is a fluvial fan located in an arid region of Botswana, Africa (McCarthy et al., 1992; ‘Smith et al., 1997). The depositional setting for the fan, shown in Fig. 12a, is a graben with a width on the order of 150 km. The Okavango River carries a medium to fine sand to the delta, transporting virtu- ally no gravel and a paucity of sediment in the silt to clay sizes. The region is so arid that approximately 95 percent of the incoming water is lost to evapotranspiration. As much as 300 m of sediment has accu- mulated in the graben as deposition has filled the accommodation space created by subsidence. 816 JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6CLD remus [Essco0t sue ) Fig. 12. a) Plan view of the Okavango Fan, Botswana, Africa (Smith et al., 1997). b) Vegetally controlled meandering channel on the Okavango Fan (photo courtesy N. Smith). JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 817The dominant mode of sediment transport is bedload. This fact, combined with the paucity of fines and the arid environment suggests that the dominant channel morphology should be braided. This is in fact the case immediately after an avulsion, as the water flows over an unvegetated, sandy plain, The avulsion, however, delivers water to a previously dry region, encouraging the rapid growth of a dense cover of papyrus reeds, The gradual encroachment of papyrus reeds leads to channel narrow- ing, and eventually to the formation of a highly meandering channel, as shown in Fig. 12b. This example illustrates one of the many agents of construction of fans that may operate: braided streams, meandering streams, debris flows and mud flows. Each of these agents nevertheless leads to fan-shaped morphologies which share many common features. 6 Experimental research on alluvial fans Among the earliest of the proponents of experimental studies of fans is Hooke (1967, 1968; see also Hooke and Rohrer, 1979). Schumm and co-workers have shown that alluvial fans constructed from depositional sheet flows, channelized river flows and debris or mud flows can be readily formed in the laboratory at small scale (e.g. Schumm, 1977; Schumm et al., 1987). This allows for detailed study that can be difficult or impossible in the field due to a) the rarity of fan-building events and b) their intensity when they do occur. Chang (1982) has used experimentation to study alluvial fan- deltas from an engineering perspective. These and other studies have allowed the delineation of many interesting features of fans, including a) the transition between regimes of domination by debris flows and domination by fluvial flows, b) the existence in an otherwise overall depositional setting of a mechanism by which occasional trenching at the upslope region of the fan helps deliver sediment to the downslope region and c) the development of characteristic “sieve lobes” associated with groundwater loss in the case of fans in arid environments. Blair and McPherson (1994) have derided these efforts as “laboratory sandbox experiments.” They suggest that the premise that fans can be modeled at small scale is “unrealistic.” Their criticism is useful up to a point, It cannot be concluded that an experimental model of fans that simply “looks” like a fan in the field also acts like a fan. This notwithstanding, there is a long history of generally successful modeling of erodible-bed morphology based on the concept of the distorted Froude model (e.g. Graf, 1977). In such a model similarity is imposed in the Froude number, but the verti- cal scale is allowed to be distorted relative to the horizontal scale so that higher slopes are realized in the laboratory. The distortion is often needed to render the model sediment mobile. Distorted Froude models are not perfect models. They have repeatedly been found, however, to provide quan- titative results that replicate the field reasonably well. ‘Two recent experimental studies of alluvial fans are those due to Bryant et al. (1995) and Whipple et al. (1998). ‘The first of these allowed for a quantification of avulsion frequency on channelized fans, The model demonstrated that avulsion frequency increases with increasing sedimentation rate. While this conclusion might appear to be obvious, several numerical models of basin stratigraphy have assumed that avulsion frequency is independent of sedimentation rate. ‘The second of these represents the first attempt to include subsidence in experimental studies of fan-deltas. Rather than having the basement subside, the mathematically equivalent procedure of raising the base level (water surface elevation) was implemented. It was thus possible to study a) progradation to equilibrium, b) equilibrium balance between sedimentation and subsidence and c) response of the fan to changes in both water discharge and rate of sediment delivery. The flows modeled ranged from sheet flows to channelized braided flows (Fig. 7a). The analytical model pre- sented in Parker et al, (1998b) proved to be capable of describing not only the experimental fans of 818 JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6Whipple et al. (1998), but also the fan in the tailings basin of the Hibbing Taconite Mine (Fig. 3; Parker et al., 1998a). ‘A new experimental facility for the modeling of large scale river morphology, drainage basin evo- Tution and stratigraphy, more familiarly dubbed “Jurassic Tank” has recently been completed at St. Anthony Falls Laboratory under the direction of C. Paola, The facility allows for subsidence with arbitrary temporal and spatial profile. Information about the facility can be found at the World Wide Web site “http://www! .umn.edu/safl”. The first experiment to be conducted in the main facil- ity was in progress at the time of writing of this manuscript. The subject of the experiment was the morphology and stratigraphy of a fan-delta in the form of a bajada. An image of the experiment is progress is included here as Fig, 13. It invites compa on with Fig. 6. Fig. 13, Experimental fan-delta bajada formed in the “Jurassic Tank” facility at St. Anthony Falls Laboratory. The length of the basin is 7.5 m. The sediment consists of (white) fine sand and (black) sand-sized crushed coal. Flow is from left to right. Other than the work quoted above due to Hooke, Schumm and their co-workers, there have been relatively few attempts to model experimentally the formation of entire fans constructed from stacked debris flows. The experimental literature on debris flows themselves is, however, quite rich (Takahashi, 1991; Cheng, 1997). 7 Theoretical and numerical modeling of alluvial fans Alluvial fans are one of the building blocks of sedimentary basins. The modern theory of alluvial fan formation derives from models of basin filling developed by Paola and colleagues (Paola, 1988, 1989; Paola et al., 1992). ‘The basis for these models can be described as follows. Sediment trans- port is described using a diffusion relation, according to which it is proportional to some power of local basin bed slope, and thus the derivative of elevation with respect to down-basin distance. ‘Transport is confined to a characteristic width, i.e. channel width or width of individual debris JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 819flows. Deposition, however, is spread uniformly in the lateral (e. g. radial) direction as the channel avulses, or as debris flows avoid topographic highs created by antecedent debris flows, In the absence of subsidence the deposit progrades as it aggrades, Subsidence with any spatial or temporal variation can be incorporated into the model. Once this is done, it is possible to study both the approach to and the maintenance of a long-tetm balance between deposition and subsidence. Basin-filling, models of the above type do not specifically locate the channels or debris flows in question. In the long term the channels or flows are assumed to occupy every point on the fan as it builds up. Thus channel mechanics are described, but channel shift or avulsion is not specifically modeled, Paola and co-workers have shown that a diffusion form for sediment transport can be spe- cifically detived from the basic governing equations of flow and sediment transport in river chan- nels. The formulation can be adapted for meandering channels, braided channels or sheet flows (e.g. Paola et al., 1999). A similar derivation has not been implemented for debris flows, but it is likely that such a diffusional description is ultimately possible. Itis relatively easy to add both grain sorting and compaction to basin-filling models. As a result, they provide a particularly useful basis for the modeling of stratigraphy in a subsiding basin. Recently Parker et al, (1998a,b) and Whipple et al. (1998) have adapted the basin-filling models of Paola and co-workers specifically for the case of fluvial fans which obey approximate radial sym- metry. The model allows for a relatively arbitrary choice of sediment transport and resistance rela- tions in the channels. Channel width is taken to be governed by a Shields stress criterion. The model can describe fluvial fans built by meandering streams, braided streams or sheet flow carrying sand or gravel. Sample predictions of the model are shown in Fig. 14a (channelized fluvial fan) and Fig. 14b (sheet flow fan). The model itself, “Actonym6.xls” is an Excel spreadsheet model that can be downloaded from the World Wide Web at “http://www 1.umn.edu/safl”. ‘The work has been applied to the problem of the fan-delta contained in the tailings basin of the Hibbing Taconite Mine, Minnesota, USA. (Fig. 3; Parker et al., 1998a). In this case the walls of the basin are built up just to as to prevent escape of the tailings as the fan aggrades. From a mathemati- cal point of view this is equivalent to basin subsidence. The theory was used as a tool for optimizing the lifetime of the tailings basin. A very recent development in the theory of alluvial fans is due to Sun et al. (1999). This model combines the principles of the basin filling model of Paola (1988, 1989) and its successor for fans, Parker et al. (1998b) with the description of individual channel networks used by Murray and Paola (1994) to study braided channels. The result is a numerical model of fans and fan-deltas which a) obeys physically defensible laws of sediment transport and resistance in the channels, b) uses the same determinant, i.e. Shields stress, as used in Parker et al, (1998b) for channel width, ) allows for arbitrary subsidence profiles, d) determines internally whether or not there should be a single channel, or multiple distributaries on the fan and e) provides a physically justifiable description of channel avulsion, A sample prediction of the model is shown in Fig. 15. Similar theoretical and numerical models for the formation of debris flow dominated fans are not yet available. This appears, however, to be due more to the lack of trying than the availability of the tools for the job. Iverson (1997) provides an excellent review of the mechanics of debris flows. Numerous numerical models for the runout of single debris flows are described in Takahashi (1991) and Cheng (1997). The prospects for the development of a physically based numerical model for fans constructed of stacked debris flows, with or without fluvial reworking, would appear to be good. 820 JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6Channelized Fan yim) (a) Sheet Flow Fan Fig. 14, a) Equilibrium fan-delta morphology for the case of channelized flow computed with the model of Parker et al. (1998b) for the following parameters: basin radius = 10 km; intermittency (fraction of time the river is in flood) = 0.05; flood discharge = 20 m?/s; sediment discharge during floods = 0.04 m/s, sediment size = 0.3 mm; fan angh sity = 0.4; subsidence rate = 1 mm/ year. Only 90° of the fan is shown in the figure. b) Prediction for the same case as immediately above, but with unchannelized sheet flow covering half of the fan area at any given time during floods, Only 90 of the fan is shown in the figure. Note the very different morphologies associated with channelized flow and sheet flow. JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 6 821Fig. 15. 822 ee "| &) ) Pattern of distributary channels in an implementation of the model of Sun et al. (1999) for fan- deltas. The flow conditions are identical to those described in the caption for Fig. 14 a except that fan angle = 90°, intermittency = 1.0 (the river is always in flood) and subsidence rate = 0. The figure provides a snapshot 168 years after the commencement of sediment feed to the lower left comer of the fan, b) Fan morphology predicted 168 years after the initiation of sediment feed to the lower left comer of the fan. The implementation is that of Fig. 15a. JOURNAL DE RECHERCHES HYDRAULIQUES, VOL. 37, 1999, NO. 68 Challenges for the future ‘The writer offers the following challenges for future research on alluvial fans. To the writer’s knowledge there have been relatively few attempts to model fans by the stacking of successive debris flows, each with a width that is much less than the fan itself. Experimental model- ing of a fan such as that in Fig, 2 would be most useful, It would be even more useful if the model were to obey as closely as possible similarity in the densimetric Froude number associated with the debris flows. Finally, it would be useful if an attempt were to be made to quantitatively scale model debris flow theology as well. There have apparently been no attempts to develop a numerical model of stacked debris flows that gradually builds up the architecture of the fan itself. Most of the pieces of the puzzle, and in partic- ular numerical models for the runout of individual debris flows, appear to be in place. It may be necessary to introduce an clement of fluvial reworking to describe fan development after it pro- grades to the point that its distal slope drops to a value that is too low for the continued translation of debris flows. Models of fluvial fans can incorporate channel avulsion, but they cannot as yet account for channel migration. A first approach to this would be the inclusion of a model for meander migration. Existing models of fluvial fans provide a poor description of channel incision into the fan, and sub- sequent fan regrading by valley widening, in response to e.g. increased water supply or decreased sediment supply. A description of valley widening by a channel incised into a fan would be most welcome. Existing models of fluvial fan-deltas provide only simplified description of the lobes that form at the termini of channels. A more detailed model would be able to describe the formation of the many terminal lobes in the Yellow River fan-delta shown in Fig. 4. Finally, a number of engineering problems cry out for an appropriate model of fan dynamics. Con- sider the Mississippi fan-delta described earlier. A model of this fan-delta would a) include com- paction and b) allow for the main channel to be walled off by levees. It should thus be possible to model both aggradation in and elongation of the main channel as the rest of the fan subsides under compaction. The consequences of preserving the present configuration could be studied. In addi- tion, it would be possible to study the consequences of controlled avulsions into e.g. the Atchafa- aya River, so as to allow nature to take its course in a way designed to minimize the adverse impact on humans, Some of the most challenging problems facing river engineers involve the dynamics of alluvial fans. The fan-delta of the Yellow River shown in Fig. 4 is in fact a fan-delta within a much larger fan, the North China Plains. As shown in Fig. 16, in historic time the Yellow River has repeatedly avulsed from the north side to the south side of the Shandong Peninsula (Li and Finlayson, 1993). In recent time avulsion has been prevented, and flood and sediment disaster control implemented by constructing levees along the river. At present the river is already about 10 m higher than the surrounding plain within the zone where avulsion might be expected in the absence of levees. The most appropriate solution would be a controlled avulsion to the south, implemented over the many years required to acquire land and resettle the millions of affected people. (Engineering works to lower sediment production in the upland loess plateau may also offer some partial relief.) The con- sequences of not addressing the problem will be the eventual natural recurrence of the man-made disaster of 1938. This disaster was caused when the levees were deliberately cut, and the river diverted to the south, in order to halt the southward advance of the Japanese army. It is estimated that 12.5 million people were affected by the flood, and 890,000 drowned as a result of it. 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