Está en la página 1de 31

KPMG 9th Annual

A l Mining
Mi i Executive
E ti Forum
F
September 19, 2013
1
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain information contained or incorporated by reference in this presentation, including any information as to our strategy, projects,
plans or future financial or operating performance constitutes "forward-looking statements”. All statements, other than statements of
historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, "expect", “anticipate”, “contemplate”, “target”, “plan”, “intend”,
g
“continue”, “budget”, “estimate”, “may”,
y “will”, “schedule” and similar expressions
p identifyy forward-looking
g statements. Forward-lookingg
statements are necessarily based upon a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by the Company, are
inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Known and unknown factors could
cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited
to: fluctuations in the spot and forward price of gold and copper or certain other commodities (such as silver, diesel fuel and electricity);
changes in national and local government legislation, taxation, controls, regulations, expropriation or nationalization of property and
political
po t ca o
or eco
economic
o c dedevelopments
e op e ts in CaCanada,
ada, tthe
eUUnited
ted States a
and
d ot
other
e ju
jurisdictions
sd ct o s in which
c tthe
e Co
Company
pa y does oor may
ay ca
carryy o
on
business in the future; diminishing quantities or grades of reserves; increased costs, delays, suspensions and technical challenges
associated with the construction of capital projects; the impact of global liquidity and credit availability on the timing of cash flows and
the values of assets and liabilities based on projected future cash flows; adverse changes in our credit rating; the impact of inflation;
fluctuations in the currency markets; operating or technical difficulties in connection with mining or development activities; the speculative
nature of mineral exploration and development, including the risks of obtaining necessary licenses and permits; contests over title to
properties particularly title to undeveloped properties; risk of loss due to acts of war,
properties, war terrorism
terrorism, sabotage and civil disturbances; changes
in U.S. dollar interest rates; risks arising from holding derivative instruments; litigation; business opportunities that may be presented to,
or pursued by, the Company; our ability to successfully integrate acquisitions or complete divestitures; employee relations; availability and
increased costs associated with mining inputs and labor; and the organization of our African gold operations and properties under a
separate listed company. In addition, there are risks and hazards associated with the business of mineral exploration, development and
mining, including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, unusual or unexpected formations, pressures, cave-ins, flooding and gold
bullion copper cathode or gold/copper concentrate losses (and the risk of inadequate insurance,
bullion, insurance or inability to obtain insurance,
insurance to cover
these risks). Many of these uncertainties and contingencies can affect our actual results and could cause actual results to differ materially
from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, us. Readers are cautioned that forward-
looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. All of the forward-looking statements made in this presentation are
qualified by these cautionary statements. Specific reference is made to the most recent Form 40-F/Annual Information Form on file with
the SEC and Canadian provincial securities regulatory authorities for a discussion of some of the factors underlying forward-looking
statements.
t t t

We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future
events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

2
A Decade of Rising Gold Prices
Fear of Cyprus/EU gold sales
Spot Gold Price (US$/ounce) to cover bailouts
$1,800

$1,600

$1,400

$1,200
Financial Greece QE Tapering
Crisis Bailout Announced
$1,000
QE2
Announced
$800
ETF
Launched
$600
QE1
Announced
$400

$200

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
$0

Source: Bloomberg 3
Positive Gold Price Fundamentals

ƒ Uncertain macroeconomic environment and continued


accommodative monetaryy p policyy byy manyy central banks
ƒ Future inflation prospects
ƒ Reserve currency devaluation í limited
choice
h i off alternative
lt ti safe
f haven
h investments
i t t
ƒ Geopolitical issues
ƒ Central Bank net buying continues
ƒ Physical demand remains strong,
particularly in emerging markets
off China
Chi and d India
I di
ƒ Scarcity of new, large discoveries
and projects; shift from focus on
production growth at any cost
4
ETF – the alternative investment

Total Known ETF Holdings (tonnes)


2 500
2,500

2,000
,

1,500

1,000

500

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
0
Source: UBS 5
Equity / Gold Price Disconnect

Gold Equity Index (XAU) - (% of Gold Price)


200%

175%

150%

125%

100%

75%

50%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
25%

Source: FT and Bloomberg


6
Shrinking Junior Miners

Market Cap of Top 100 Junior Miners Listed on TSX-V

$20.6B
JUNE30,2011

Ͳ43%
$11.7B
JUNE30,2012 Ͳ70%
$6.2B
JUNE30,2013

Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers and Bloomberg


7
Trends in a Rising Gold Price Environment

Focus on Rising operating


Resource
production and
nationalism
growth capital costs

Declining free cash flow


Loss of investor confidence
Need for fundamental change

8
Focus on Production Growth
Reserve size over 1 million ounces of gold

Pebble Mayskoye
Kupol
Donlin Gold Blagodatnoe Natalka
Sukhoi Log
Meadowbank Nezhdaninskoye
Éléonore OyuTolgoi
Rosia Montana
Vasilkovskoye
Cortez Hills
CortezHills M li
Maoling
Efemcukuru
Çöpler
Xietongmen
SariGunay
PinosAltos RekoDiq
Peñasquito Jinfeng
Essakane
CerroBlanco Pueblo Viejo
PuebloViejo
Masbate
Akyem Boyongon
FrutadelNorte LasCristinas/
Quimsacocha Brisas Moto

Esperanza
ElMorro Prominent
CerroCasale Gualcamayo Hill
PascuaͲLama Esquel Boddington

Source: SNL-MEG 2013


9
Gold Industry Pipeline
Reserve/Resource Size +15Moz +10Moz +5Moz Grade +1.7g/t Au Eq (2012 Global Wtd Avg Head Grade)

Livengood
Casino C
CourageousLake
L k
Donlin Gold Natalka
Sukhoi Log
Galore Schaft Creek
Brucejack
Creek
Kyzyl
Rosia Montana
KSM MtMilligan
NewProsperity

Metates

Cobre Panama
Brisas Akyem
LasCristinas Kibali
Fruta delNorte
WafiͲGolpu
C
Conga
MtTodd
LoboͲMarte AguaRica Namosi

CerroCasale Caspiche
ElMorro SouthernFreeStateGoldfield
PascuaͲLama

CerroNegro

Source: SNL-MEG 2013


10
Gold Industry Pipeline
InConstruction Reserve/Resource Grade +1.7g/t Au Eq (2012 Global Wtd Avg Head Grade)

C
CourageousLake
L k
Donlin Gold Sukhoi Log
Brucejack
Kyzyl

Akyem
Kibali
Fruta delNorte
WafiͲGolpu

SouthernFreeStateGoldfield
PascuaͲLama

CerroNegro

Source: SNL-MEG 2013


11
Mine Supply Inelasticity
Gold Price (US$) Mine Supply (M oz)
$1,700 150

$1,400 Price 120


437%
$1,100 90
Mine
Supply
$800 9% 60

$500 30

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
$200 0
Sources: Thomson Reuters GFMS, Bloomberg 12
Declining Grades
Gold Price (US$) Weighted Average Gold Grade (g/t)
$1,700 2.2

$1,400 Price 2.1


437%
$1,100 2.0

$800 1.9
Grade
ߌ 19%
$500 1.8

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
$200 1.7
Sources: Bloomberg, SNL-MEG 13
Sustaining Capital

+7Ͳ10%
PERANNUM
ƒ Higher labor costs
$300/oz ƒ Higher energy costs
+7Ͳ10% UNDERGROUND
PERANNUM ƒ Less experienced
personnel
p
$200/oz
/
ƒ Other inflationary
OPENPIT
pressures

Source: CIBC World Markets Inc.


14
Change in Cost Reporting

ƒ Previous industry cost metric did not provide true


picture of operating
p p g performance
p
ƒ Led to investor disappointment, unrealistic government
expectations
ƒ World Gold Council’s all-in sustaining cost (AISC)
measure better represents total cost of producing gold
ƒ Positive response by investors and media
– “Gold’s ‘All-In’ Costs Will Spur Investment, Industry Group Says”
- Bloomberg
Bl b
– “New WGC gold cost guide should have investors dancing in
the streets” – Mineweb
– “New rules pressure miners to come clean on costs” - Reuters

15
Rising Industry “All-In Sustaining” Costs
(US$ per ounce)
$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200

$0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
Source: TD Securities
16
Margin Growth Has Lagged Gold Prices
Indexed to 100 in 2002 - percent
500%

Gold Price

400%

300%

200%
EBITDA Margin
Major Producers(1)
100%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0
(1) See final slide #3. 17
Barrick’s All-In Sustaining Cash Costs

55%
Adjusted Operating 15%
Other
Costs
10% 40%
Maintenance Labor
35%
Sustaining 15%
Energy
Capex
20%
Consumables
6%
G&A 2% 2%

Exploration
E l ti & R l
Reclamation
i
Evaluation

18
Project Cost Overruns

Projected Cost Variances (for selected over-running capital infrastructure projects)


120%

100%
For selected over-running projects, average
80% g variance is 71%
over-budget

60%

40%

20%

0%

Aus. (Magnetite)

Aus. (Magnetite)
m. (Copper)

Aus. (Diamond)
fic (Copper)
m. (Copper)

Aus. (Alumina)
Aus. (Iron Ore)

Aus. (Iron Ore)

Aus. (Iron Ore)

Aus. (Iron Ore)


Africaa (Nickel)

m. (Moly)
m. (Alum)
m. (Gold)

m. (Steel)

m. (Steel)
Aus. (Nickel)
Aus. (Gold)
N. Am

N. Am

N. Am

N. Am
S. Am

S. Am

S. Am
Pacifi

Note: Percentage variances between market-advised cost projections and original estimates for selected capital infrastructure projects
Source: Ernst & Young
19
Resource Nationalism

ƒ Venezuela – history of nationalization


ƒ Ecuador – 70% windfall tax
ƒ Ghana – 10% windfall tax
ƒ Quebec – recently imposed new profit-based mining tax
ƒ Mexico – proposed 7.5% net profits interest tax
ƒ Dominican Republic – revised Special Lease Agreement

20
Maintaining Social License to Operate

ƒ Rising investor and NGO pressure

ƒ Growing
G i number
b off responsibilities
ibiliti

21
A Paradigm Shift is Underway

How are companies responding?

Shift to Shelving low


Focus on cost
free cash flow return, high risk
reduction
vs. production projects
p j

Disciplined Capital Allocation

22
Barrick is Well Positioned

9 5 core long life mines in the Americas


High quality to generate ~60% of production at AISCe of
asset base ~$700/oz
$700/oz in 2013
9 High grade reserves

Lowest cost 9 Reduced 2013 AISC guidance by $100/oz


senior 9 75% of 2013 production at AISCe
producer
d off <$800/
<$800/oz

9 Returns willll drive


d production
d
Disciplined 9 Focus on risk-adjusted returns & free cash flow
capital
9 $6B reduction to budgeted capex & costs
allocation
9 Ongoing portfolio optimization
23
High Quality Portfolio

2013e: 7.0-7.4 Moz of gold at AISC of $900-$975/oz

~60%
Cortez,, Goldstrike,,
Veladero, Lagunas Norte, 75%
Pueblo Viejo
at AISC of
<$800/oz(1)
~15%
6 mines
~25%
10 mines

(1) Reflects sale of Yilgarn South.


24
Barrick’s Response

Disciplined Capital Allocation Framework


ƒ Adopted in mid-2012 prior to gold price weakness
ƒ Focuses on maximizing risk-adjusted rates of return
and
d ffree cash
h flow
fl
ƒ Includes sharp focus on cost control
ƒ Allowed us to react quickly in a lower gold price
environment

Returns will drive production;


production will not drive returns

25
Barrick’s Response

(US$/oz) Gold Price Decline


1,800 What We Have Done
Independent of metal price declines
1,700 9 Disciplined Capital Allocation
Framework (risk-adjusted returns,
free cash flow
flow, cost control
control, and
1,600
portfolio optimization)
9 Shelved high cost projects
1 500
1,500
9 Cut/deferred $4B in capital
9 Initiated portfolio evaluation
1,400 9 Sold Barrick Energy
9 Agreement to sell Yilgarn South
1,300
9 Decision to close Pierina
9 Launched companywide
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 overhead review
1,200
2012 2013
Source: Bloomberg 26
Barrick’s Response

(US$/oz) Gold Price Decline


1,800 What We are Doing Now
In a lower metal price environment
1,700 ƒ Cost control initiatives
í$$2B in capital
p and cost
1,600 reductions in H1 2013
í New operating model
1 500
1,500
ƒ Maximizing cash flow at every
mine (optimize first)
1,400
ƒ New life-of-mine plans at
$1,100/oz
1,300

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1,200
2012 2013
Source: Bloomberg 27
Maintaining Social License to Operate

ƒ CSR Advisory Board

ƒ CSR leadership
recognition
g

28
Industry Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges Opportunities

Free cash flow growth Shift to disciplined capital allocation

Rising all
all-in
in
Sh
Sharper focus
f on costt reduction
d ti
sustaining costs

Increased reporting transparency


transparency,
Resource nationalism
community/government consultation

Result
ƒ Industry response may result in lower mine supply,
but this will create a healthier industry and is also
supportive for the gold price
29
KPMG 9th Annual
A l Mining
Mi i Executive
E ti Forum
F
September 19, 2013
30
Footnotes
1. All-in sustaining costs per ounce are a non-GAAP financial performance measure with no standardized definition under IFRS. See pages
45-48 of Barrick’s Second Quarter 2013 Report.
2. 2013 estimate based on discussions and research estimates from BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and UBS between
June 21 and September 9, 2013.
3 Source: Gold Fields Limited.
3. Limited EBITDA margin is calculated as the weighted average of 8 major gold producers including: AngloGold
Ashanti, Barrick, Harmony, Kinross, Goldcorp, Gold Fields, Newmont and Newcrest.

31

También podría gustarte