June 4th 2018, 2am PST www.tooclosetocall.

ca
Based on the latest polls by Ipsos(26), Innovative(28), Angus-Reid(28), HK(29), Forum(30), Research Co.(30), Ekos(30), Abacus(30), Pollara(1st) and Mainstreet(1st)
OLP PC NDP Green
% 20.7 36.9 36.4 4.5
seats 5 68 50 1
chances of winning* 0.0% 80.4% 18.3% 0.0%
chances of a majority 0.0% 63.0% 9.6% 0.0% Probability to win the riding

OLP PC NDP Green OLP PC NDP Green

Ajax 30.8% 35.8% 30.6% 2.8% 21.52% 58.27% 20.21% 0.00%
Algoma—Manitoulin 6.6% 28.3% 62.1% 2.9% 0.00% 0.03% 99.97% 0.00%
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 26.4% 45.3% 24.9% 3.3% 1.40% 97.68% 0.92% 0.00%
Barrie—Innisfil 20.2% 44.4% 29.9% 5.5% 0.04% 94.25% 5.71% 0.00%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 19.5% 45.4% 28.5% 6.6% 0.12% 96.35% 3.53% 0.00%
Bay of Quinte 19.6% 44.5% 31.0% 4.8% 0.13% 92.51% 7.36% 0.00%
Beaches—East York 22.1% 20.7% 52.0% 5.2% 0.01% 0.03% 99.96% 0.00%
Brampton Centre 20.8% 31.8% 41.7% 5.7% 0.22% 12.25% 87.53% 0.00%
Brampton East 15.3% 19.1% 63.9% 1.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Brampton North 22.0% 30.7% 44.2% 3.1% 0.28% 6.92% 92.80% 0.00%
Brampton South 26.3% 34.0% 36.8% 3.0% 4.88% 34.75% 60.37% 0.00%
Brampton West 27.2% 29.7% 40.9% 2.2% 4.23% 9.45% 86.32% 0.00%
Brantford—Brant 16.5% 39.2% 40.5% 3.8% 0.01% 44.67% 55.32% 0.00%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 9.8% 53.0% 28.9% 8.3% 0.00% 99.40% 0.60% 0.00%
Burlington 24.2% 43.4% 28.4% 3.9% 0.91% 94.13% 4.96% 0.00%
Cambridge 22.1% 39.8% 32.8% 5.4% 0.09% 60.28% 39.63% 0.00%
Carleton 15.7% 54.2% 24.7% 5.4% 0.00% 99.96% 0.04% 0.00%
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 4.8% 42.6% 47.6% 5.0% 0.00% 31.04% 68.96% 0.00%
Davenport 26.2% 14.6% 54.3% 4.9% 0.16% 0.00% 99.84% 0.00%
Don Valley East 36.1% 33.1% 27.5% 3.3% 57.24% 32.79% 9.97% 0.00%
Don Valley North 30.7% 40.5% 25.5% 3.3% 11.98% 84.59% 3.43% 0.00%
Don Valley West 33.8% 40.8% 22.2% 3.1% 20.53% 78.62% 0.85% 0.00%
Dufferin—Caledon 15.4% 43.8% 24.9% 15.9% 0.01% 98.52% 1.47% 0.00%
Durham 16.8% 38.6% 40.8% 3.7% 0.01% 40.30% 59.69% 0.00%
Eglinton—Lawrence 32.5% 42.0% 22.5% 3.0% 14.33% 85.02% 0.65% 0.00%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 0.9% 53.1% 41.3% 4.7% 0.00% 87.42% 12.58% 0.00%
Essex 0.0% 26.1% 70.9% 3.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Etobicoke Centre 29.1% 41.5% 26.9% 2.5% 6.72% 89.34% 3.94% 0.00%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 27.3% 41.8% 26.9% 4.0% 3.72% 92.26% 4.02% 0.00%
Etobicoke North 23.1% 40.2% 34.7% 2.0% 0.70% 73.66% 25.64% 0.00%
Flamborough—Glanbrook 16.3% 42.2% 36.9% 4.5% 0.02% 71.53% 28.45% 0.00%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 31.7% 38.2% 27.1% 3.1% 21.86% 70.95% 7.19% 0.00%
Guelph 10.1% 29.2% 29.1% 31.6% 0.01% 28.93% 28.07% 42.99%
Haldimand—Norfolk 5.4% 57.1% 33.0% 4.5% 0.00% 99.30% 0.70% 0.00%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 17.9% 45.6% 32.6% 4.0% 0.01% 92.01% 7.98% 0.00%
Hamilton Centre 4.4% 17.4% 69.1% 9.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 12.6% 23.0% 60.7% 3.8% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton Mountain 10.7% 22.2% 63.0% 4.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 23.7% 32.1% 39.2% 5.0% 1.80% 20.93% 77.27% 0.00%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington 12.4% 45.4% 36.5% 5.6% 0.00% 81.82% 18.18% 0.00%
Humber River—Black Creek 23.5% 20.1% 55.1% 1.4% 0.02% 0.01% 99.97% 0.00%
Huron—Bruce 12.2% 45.8% 38.7% 3.3% 0.00% 76.73% 23.27% 0.00%
Kanata—Carleton 20.6% 46.7% 26.0% 6.6% 0.04% 98.96% 1.00% 0.00%
Kenora—Rainy River 5.0% 43.8% 48.5% 2.7% 0.00% 33.58% 66.42% 0.00%
Kiiwetinoong 0.8% 22.7% 73.1% 3.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Kingston and the Islands 21.3% 27.4% 43.9% 7.4% 0.46% 4.00% 95.54% 0.00%
King—Vaughan 30.7% 40.0% 26.4% 2.9% 14.06% 81.68% 4.26% 0.00%
Kitchener Centre 23.3% 32.7% 37.8% 6.2% 1.80% 28.05% 70.15% 0.00%
Kitchener—Conestoga 20.2% 42.4% 31.3% 6.2% 0.15% 88.61% 11.24% 0.00%
Kitchener South—Hespeler 20.1% 39.4% 34.3% 6.1% 0.35% 69.81% 29.84% 0.00%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 1.2% 52.2% 42.2% 4.4% 0.00% 83.42% 16.58% 0.00%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 9.0% 52.4% 31.8% 6.8% 0.00% 98.35% 1.65% 0.00%
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
3.3% 61.2% 30.8% 4.7% 0.00% 99.88% 0.12% 0.00%
London—Fanshawe 1.2% 29.0% 66.0% 3.9% 0.00% 0.06% 99.94% 0.00%
London North Centre 10.0% 36.3% 48.5% 5.2% 0.00% 10.36% 89.64% 0.00%
London West 4.6% 35.8% 55.8% 3.8% 0.00% 2.55% 97.45% 0.00%
Markham—Stouffville 28.4% 41.4% 26.6% 3.6% 6.06% 90.02% 3.92% 0.00%
Markham—Thornhill 30.5% 42.4% 24.9% 2.2% 8.80% 89.37% 1.83% 0.00%
Markham—Unionville 21.5% 49.2% 25.7% 3.6% 0.05% 99.44% 0.51% 0.00%
Milton 24.1% 44.1% 28.4% 3.3% 0.81% 95.14% 4.05% 0.00%
Mississauga Centre 31.2% 34.4% 31.5% 2.9% 25.59% 47.03% 27.38% 0.00%
Mississauga East—Cooksville 30.0% 36.1% 30.3% 3.6% 18.86% 60.96% 20.18% 0.00%
Mississauga—Erin Mills 29.5% 37.7% 30.6% 2.2% 13.28% 69.32% 17.40% 0.00%
Mississauga—Lakeshore 29.8% 41.3% 25.9% 3.0% 9.74% 86.88% 3.38% 0.00%
Mississauga—Malton 30.4% 32.1% 34.8% 2.7% 20.10% 28.71% 51.19% 0.00%
Mississauga—Streetsville 30.4% 37.1% 28.7% 3.8% 18.96% 68.63% 12.41% 0.00%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 12.3% 18.5% 68.0% 1.2% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nepean 23.0% 45.6% 26.3% 5.2% 0.20% 98.33% 1.47% 0.00%
Newmarket—Aurora 25.5% 44.1% 26.3% 4.0% 1.56% 96.10% 2.34% 0.00%
Niagara Centre 2.9% 31.3% 62.1% 3.8% 0.00% 0.04% 99.96% 0.00%
Niagara Falls 0.0% 36.6% 60.3% 3.1% 0.00% 1.02% 98.98% 0.00%
Niagara West 7.7% 53.3% 33.2% 5.7% 0.00% 98.05% 1.95% 0.00%
Nickel Belt 3.9% 22.6% 70.2% 3.3% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nipissing 9.7% 48.2% 38.6% 3.6% 0.00% 83.90% 16.10% 0.00%
Northumberland—Peterborough South 21.6% 42.6% 31.8% 4.0% 0.34% 87.52% 12.14% 0.00%
Oakville 28.5% 45.0% 23.0% 3.6% 3.62% 95.86% 0.52% 0.00%
Oakville North—Burlington 26.4% 44.0% 26.4% 3.2% 2.33% 95.42% 2.25% 0.00%
Orléans 33.9% 38.9% 23.7% 3.5% 29.06% 68.72% 2.22% 0.00%
Oshawa 4.3% 35.7% 56.4% 3.6% 0.00% 1.63% 98.37% 0.00%
Ottawa Centre 33.6% 23.4% 34.9% 8.1% 43.25% 3.71% 53.04% 0.00%
Ottawa South 31.7% 37.5% 26.7% 4.2% 23.35% 69.42% 7.23% 0.00%
Ottawa—Vanier 37.5% 27.8% 29.6% 5.2% 71.86% 10.78% 17.36% 0.00%
Ottawa West—Nepean 27.6% 38.4% 28.0% 6.1% 9.04% 81.44% 9.52% 0.00%
Oxford 7.2% 52.2% 36.0% 4.6% 0.00% 94.93% 5.07% 0.00%
Parkdale—High Park 22.6% 18.9% 53.4% 5.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 8.9% 46.0% 26.2% 18.9% 0.00% 98.55% 1.45% 0.00%
Perth—Wellington 19.3% 45.6% 30.3% 4.7% 0.04% 95.27% 4.69% 0.00%
Peterborough—Kawartha 24.9% 38.7% 32.3% 4.2% 3.33% 73.51% 23.16% 0.00%
Pickering—Uxbridge 27.4% 39.6% 28.9% 4.1% 6.42% 84.10% 9.48% 0.00%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 3.2% 65.8% 28.0% 3.0% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Richmond Hill 28.1% 43.0% 25.7% 3.1% 4.41% 93.48% 2.11% 0.00%
Sarnia—Lambton 0.0% 45.9% 49.8% 4.3% 0.00% 34.53% 65.47% 0.00%
Sault Ste. Marie 20.8% 41.5% 35.4% 2.3% 0.39% 73.48% 26.13% 0.00%
Scarborough—Agincourt 28.8% 42.4% 26.3% 2.4% 5.35% 92.18% 2.47% 0.00%
Scarborough Centre 29.5% 30.8% 36.7% 3.0% 15.58% 19.79% 64.63% 0.00%
Scarborough—Guildwood 29.7% 36.1% 31.6% 2.7% 15.71% 60.00% 24.29% 0.00%
Scarborough North 22.0% 37.9% 38.7% 1.3% 0.40% 47.01% 52.59% 0.00%
Scarborough—Rouge Park 27.9% 32.3% 37.7% 2.1% 8.73% 23.17% 68.10% 0.00%
Scarborough Southwest 29.4% 28.9% 37.7% 4.0% 14.42% 10.92% 74.66% 0.00%
Simcoe—Grey 13.0% 52.3% 27.3% 7.5% 0.00% 99.67% 0.33% 0.00%
Simcoe North 17.1% 43.8% 31.4% 7.8% 0.01% 91.07% 8.92% 0.00%
Spadina—Fort York 28.4% 25.2% 41.0% 5.4% 7.26% 2.44% 90.30% 0.00%
St. Catharines 22.1% 35.5% 38.6% 3.8% 0.72% 36.95% 62.33% 0.00%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 4.2% 58.3% 34.9% 2.6% 0.00% 99.13% 0.87% 0.00%
Sudbury 21.3% 30.1% 45.2% 3.4% 0.31% 5.87% 93.82% 0.00%
Thornhill 25.9% 50.0% 22.0% 2.2% 0.24% 99.68% 0.08% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 31.1% 26.6% 38.8% 3.5% 18.76% 5.86% 75.38% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 34.2% 20.7% 41.3% 3.9% 23.76% 0.67% 75.57% 0.00%
Timiskaming—Cochrane 5.3% 28.3% 64.7% 1.7% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
Timmins 2.5% 41.8% 53.9% 1.8% 0.00% 12.47% 87.53% 0.00%
Toronto Centre 38.4% 20.8% 35.8% 5.0% 60.07% 0.57% 39.36% 0.00%
Toronto—Danforth 21.2% 16.3% 57.4% 5.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Toronto—St. Paul's 36.2% 32.6% 25.9% 5.2% 61.32% 31.83% 6.85% 0.00%
University—Rosedale 28.2% 26.2% 38.4% 7.2% 10.77% 5.53% 83.70% 0.00%
Vaughan—Woodbridge 36.0% 35.4% 26.5% 2.1% 49.90% 44.22% 5.88% 0.00%
Waterloo 15.6% 32.9% 47.0% 4.6% 0.00% 7.31% 92.69% 0.00%
Wellington—Halton Hills 15.1% 52.3% 25.4% 7.1% 0.00% 99.80% 0.20% 0.00%
Whitby 17.6% 45.5% 32.8% 4.0% 0.03% 92.06% 7.91% 0.00%
Willowdale 30.9% 39.7% 25.7% 3.8% 14.81% 81.58% 3.61% 0.00%
Windsor—Tecumseh 0.0% 20.3% 74.4% 5.2% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Windsor West 19.3% 20.7% 57.1% 2.9% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
York Centre 24.4% 40.4% 32.2% 3.1% 1.54% 81.94% 16.52% 0.00%
York South—Weston 27.7% 18.5% 51.5% 2.3% 0.47% 0.01% 99.52% 0.00%
York—Simcoe 20.4% 40.5% 33.0% 6.1% 0.27% 79.64% 20.09% 0.00%

*Winning=winning the most seats, excluding ties