• Odrediti maksimalne visine kiša za navedena trajanja povratnih perioda 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 i 100 godina,

pod pretpostavkom da se uzorci maksimalnih visina kiše dobro prilagođavanju

log-Pearson III funkciji raspodjele vjerovatnoće.
Za trajanje kise tc=120minuta

T Cs Kp Ϭ Ysr Y=Ysr+kp*Ϭ P(120)=10^y(120)

2 0.973 -0.16 0.194 1.431 1.39996 25.11655089
5 0.973 0.76 0.194 1.431 1.57844 37.88261934
10 0.973 1.34 0.194 1.431 1.69096 49.08626639
20 0.973 1.88 0.194 1.431 1.79572 62.47697589
50 0.973 2.54 0.194 1.431 1.92376 83.89962119
100 0.973 3.02 0.194 1.431 2.01688 103.9632865

P T(5) T(10) T(15) T(20) T(30) T(45) T(60) T(90) T(120)

2 7.6 11.64 14.35 16.26 18.15 20.08 21.301 23.34 25.116551
5 10.9 15.85 21 23.32 26.68 29.65 31.915 35.14 37.882619
10 13.2 21.38 25.1 28.12 33.13 37.7 41.204 45.87 49.086266
20 15.5 25.7 30.2 33.03 39.9 46.7 52.25 56.28 62.476976
50 18.6 32.36 36.9 39.72 49.76 60.63 69.82 79.6 83.899621
100 21 38.02 42.1 45.204 57.9 73.2 86.26 99.85 103.96329
 P i(t=5min)i(t=10min)i(t=15min)i(t=20min)i(t=30min)i(t=45min)i(t=60min) i(t=90min) i(t=120min)
2 1.52 1.164 0.956667 0.813 0.605 0.446222 0.355017 0.2593333 0.20930459
5 2.18 1.585 1.4 1.166 0.889333 0.658889 0.531917 0.3904444 0.31568849
10 2.64 2.138 1.673333 1.406 1.104333 0.837778 0.686733 0.5096667 0.40905222
20 3.1 2.57 2.013333 1.6515 1.33 1.037778 0.870833 0.6253333 0.52064147
50 3.72 3.236 2.46 1.986 1.658667 1.347333 1.163667 0.8844444 0.69916351
100 4.2 3.802 2.806667 2.2602 1.93 1.626667 1.437667 1.1094444 0.86636072

P(mm) t(min) y=logP x=logt Xi-Xsr Yi-Ysr Xi ² Xi*Yi

15.5 5 1.190332 0.69897 -0.758586 -0.380066 0.48855907 0.832006
25.7 10 1.409933 1 -0.457556 -0.160465 1 1.409933
30.2 15 1.480007 1.176091 -0.281464 -0.090391 1.38319065 1.740623
33.03 20 1.518909 1.30103 -0.156526 -0.051489 1.69267905 1.976146
39.9 30 1.600973 1.477121 0.0195657 0.030575 2.1818872 2.364831
46.7 45 1.669317 1.653213 0.195657 0.098919 2.73311162 2.759736
52.25 60 1.718086 1.778151 0.3205957 0.147688 3.16182187 3.055017
56.28 90 1.750354 1.954243 0.496687 0.179956 3.81906379 3.420616
62.47 120 1.795672 2.079181 0.6216257 0.225274 4.32299465 3.733527
sr.vr. 1.570398 1.457556 0 0 2.30925643 2.365826
∑ 14.13358 13.118 0 0 20.7833079 21.29243
 b= 0.416064 P=a*t^b/log
A= 0.963961 logP=loga+b*logt
a= 9.203675 Y=A+b*X

P=a*t^b i=P/tc Y=A+b*X P=10^Y

17.979503 3.595901 1.254778 17.9795
23.989738 2.398974 1.380026 23.9897
28.398197 1.893213 1.453291 28.3982
32.009089 1.600454 1.505273 32.0091
37.89122 1.263041 1.578539 37.8912
44.854277 0.996762 1.651804 44.8543
50.557594 0.842627 1.703786 50.5576
59.84828 0.664981 1.777052 59.8483
67.458116 0.562151 1.829034 67.4581
Regresija
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98507878
R Square 0.97038021
Adjusted R
Square 0.96614881
Standard Error 0.03543152
Observations 9

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 0.287897275 0.287897 229.328 1.317E-06
Residual 7 0.008787748 0.001255
Total 8 0.296685023

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.96396127 0.041751055 23.08831 7.3E-08 0.8652357 1.06268683 0.865235717 1.06268683
X Variable 1 0.41606423 0.0274746 15.1436 1.3E-06 0.3510971 0.48103133 0.351097122 0.48103133
 (Xi-Xsr)^2 (Yi-Ysr)^2 (Xi-Xsr)*(Yi-Ysr)
11 = ∑( − )(yi-ysr)
0.575452 0.14445 0.288312807
0.209357 0.025749 0.073421597
= ∑( − )
0.079222 0.008171 0.025441856
0.0245 0.002651 0.008059412 = ∑( − )
0.000383 0.000935 0.000598219
0.038282 0.009785 0.019354167 11
=
0.102782 0.021812 0.047348231 ∗

0.246698 0.032384 0.089381841

0.386418 0.050748 0.140035798 M11= 0.076884 Koeficijent korelacije
Sx= 0.184788 r= 0.985079
∑ 1.663094 0.296685 0.691953926 Sy= 0.032965 r²= 0.97038
*Regresija pomoću matrica:

x Y
0.698970004 1 1.190331698
1 1 1.409933123
1.176091259 1 1.480006943
1.301029996 1 1.518908574
1.477121255 1 1.600972896
1.653212514 1 1.669316881
1.77815125 1 1.718086295
1.954242509 1 1.750354089
2.079181246 1 1.795671506

Transponovna matrica X
0.69897 1 1.1760913 1.30103 1.477121255 1.65321251 1.7781513 1.954243 2.07918
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

R(Xtransp, X) R-1 (Rinverse) C(Xtransp,Y) α(R-1,c)

20.78330789 13.118 0.60128892 -0.876412 21.29243495 b= 0.4160642
13.11800003 9 -0.876412 1.388530299 14.133582 A= 0.9639613
• Odrediti analitički izraz za vrijednost kiše (i (mm/min)) u odnosu na njeno trajanje (t (min)) i povratnog perioda T=20god, ako se
zavisnost može dobro opisati izrazom i = a x T^b x ^tc.
Nakon dobijenih rezultata:

P T tc i y=logi x=logT z=logt y=A+b*x+c*z i=10^y

7.6 2 5 1.52 0.18184359 0.30103 0.698970004 0.23197232 1.7059736
10.9 5 5 2.18 0.33845649 0.69897 0.698970004 0.35397944 2.2593288
13.2 10 5 2.64 0.42160393 1 0.698970004 0.44627426 2.7943079
18.6 50 5 3.72 0.57054294 1.69897 0.698970004 0.66057621 4.5769504
21 100 5 4.2 0.62324929 2 0.698970004 0.75287103 5.6607117
11.64 2 10 1.164 0.06595298 0.30103 1 0.05598752 1.1375946
15.85 5 10 1.585 0.20002927 0.69897 1 0.17799464 1.5065885
21.38 10 10 2.138 0.3300077 1 1 0.27028947 1.8633287
32.36 50 10 3.236 0.51000851 1.69897 1 0.48459142 3.0520484
38.02 100 10 3.802 0.58001211 2 1 0.57688624 3.774733
14.35 2 15 0.956666667 -0.01923936 0.30103 1.176091259 -0.04695698 0.8975177
21 5 15 1.4 0.14612804 0.69897 1.176091259 0.07505014 1.1886395
25.1 10 15 1.673333333 0.22358246 1 1.176091259 0.16734497 1.4700935
36.9 50 15 2.46 0.39093511 1.69897 1.176091259 0.38164691 2.4079469
42.1 100 15 2.806666667 0.44819084 2 1.176091259 0.47394174 2.9781169
16.26 2 20 0.813 -0.08990945 0.30103 1.301029996 -0.11999727 0.7585823
23.32 5 20 1.166 0.06669855 0.69897 1.301029996 0.00200985 1.0046386
28.12 10 20 1.406 0.14798532 1 1.301029996 0.09430468 1.2425237
39.72 50 20 1.986 0.29797924 1.69897 1.301029996 0.30860662 2.0351978
45.204 100 20 2.2602 0.35414687 2 1.301029996 0.40090145 2.5171057
18.15 2 30 0.605 -0.21824463 0.30103 1.477121255 -0.22294177 0.5984918
26.68 5 30 0.889333333 -0.05093543 0.69897 1.477121255 -0.10093465 0.7926206
33.13 10 30 1.104333333 0.04310018 1 1.477121255 -0.00863983 0.9803026
49.76 50 30 1.658666667 0.21975912 1.69897 1.477121255 0.20566212 1.6056915
57.9 100 30 1.93 0.28555731 2 1.477121255 0.29795694 1.985898
 20.08 2 45 0.446222222 -0.35044881 0.30103 1.653212514 -0.32588628 0.4721867
29.65 5 45 0.658888889 -0.18118782 0.69897 1.653212514 -0.20387916 0.6253467
37.7 10 45 0.837777778 -0.07687116 1 1.653212514 -0.11158433 0.7734205
60.63 50 45 1.347333333 0.12947505 1.69897 1.653212514 0.10271761 1.2668279
73.2 100 45 1.626666667 0.21129857 2 1.653212514 0.19501244 1.5667959
21.301 2 60 0.355016667 -0.44975126 0.30103 1.77815125 -0.39892657 0.3990924
31.915 5 60 0.531916667 -0.2741564 0.69897 1.77815125 -0.27691945 0.5285433
41.204 10 60 0.686733333 -0.16321187 1 1.77815125 -0.18462462 0.6536953
69.82 50 60 1.163666667 0.06582859 1.69897 1.77815125 0.02967733 1.0707235
86.26 100 60 1.437666667 0.1576582 2 1.77815125 0.12197215 1.3242566
23.34 2 90 0.259333333 -0.58614166 0.30103 1.954242509 -0.50187107 0.3148683
35.14 5 90 0.390444444 -0.40844075 0.69897 1.954242509 -0.37986395 0.417
45.87 10 90 0.509666667 -0.29271377 1 1.954242509 -0.28756913 0.5157401
79.6 50 90 0.884444444 -0.05332944 1.69897 1.954242509 -0.07326718 0.844759
99.85 100 90 1.109444444 0.04510556 2 1.954242509 0.01902765 1.0447867
25.11655089 2 120 0.209304591 -0.67922125 0.30103 2.079181246 -0.57491136 0.2661268
37.88261934 5 120 0.315688494 -0.50074125 0.69897 2.079181246 -0.45290424 0.3524486
49.08626639 10 120 0.40905222 -0.38822125 1 2.079181246 -0.36060941 0.4359037
83.89962119 50 120 0.69916351 -0.15542125 1.69897 2.079181246 -0.14630747 0.7139907
103.9632865 100 120 0.866360721 -0.06230125 2 2.079181246 -0.05401264 0.8830542
Regresija:
SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.990093897
R Square 0.980285925
Adjusted R
Square 0.97934716
Standard Error 0.046463221
Observations 45

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 2 4.508626752 2.254313376 1044.22879 1.5499E-36
Residual 42 0.090670897 0.002158831
Total 44 4.599297649

Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.548301526 0.027526395 19.91911874 5.1259E-23 0.492751012 0.603852039 0.492751012 0.603852039
X Variable 1 0.306596771 0.011034487 27.78532175 1.1576E-28 0.284328275 0.328865268 0.284328275 0.328865268
- - - - - -
X Variable 2 0.584608827 0.016112611 36.28268844 2.4472E-33 0.617125392 0.552092263 0.617125392 0.552092263
Rezultati:
A= 0.548301526
b= 0.306596771
c= -0.584608827

i=a*(T^b)*(t^c)/log
logi=loga+b*logT+c*logt
y=A+b*x+c*z

y=A+b*x+c*z i=10^y
0.231972316 1.705973638
0.353979438 2.259328796
0.446274262 2.794307924
0.660576209 4.576950429
0.752871034 5.660711657
0.055987523 1.137594603
0.177994645 1.506588488
0.270289469 1.863328684
0.484591416 3.052048397
0.576886241 3.774733025
-0.046956982 0.897517693
0.07505014 1.188639451
0.167344965 1.470093526
0.381646912 2.407946933
0.473941736 2.978116867
 -0.11999727 0.758582344
0.002009852 1.00463858
0.094304677 1.242523687
0.308606623 2.035197794
0.400901448 2.51710567
-0.222941774 0.598491829
-0.100934653 0.792620586
-0.008639828 0.98030264
0.205662119 1.605691538
0.297956943 1.985898023
-0.325886279 0.472186668
-0.203879157 0.625346672
-0.111584332 0.77342048
0.102717614 1.266827885
0.195012439 1.566795945
-0.398926567 0.399092377
-0.276919445 0.528543279
-0.184624621 0.653695326
0.029677326 1.070723479
0.121972151 1.324256614
-0.501871072 0.314868292
-0.37986395 0.416999995
-0.287569125 0.51574007
-0.073267179 0.844758988
0.019027646 1.044786726
-0.57491136 0.266126817
-0.452904238 0.352448577
-0.360609413 0.435903731
-0.146307467 0.713990664
-0.054012642 0.883054195