Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Wind Vectors over the Tropical Pacific Region’ David M. Legler Department of Meteorology Florida State University Tallahassee, Fla, 32306 “The method of empirical orthogonal function analysis applied to wind stress vectors over the tropical Pacific Ozean from 1961 through 1978. Its determined that this vector analysis enables ‘ore thorough analysis of wind components than do comparable Scalar analyses. The method is presented and discussed. By patition- {ng the spatial variance ofthe data into many patterns, each modu lated by a complex time series this technique provided further in- sight into the variability ofthe tropical Pacific wind field The trade winds in each hemisphere are strongest during the re- spective winterand early spring. Inaddition. the northeast trades are ‘mote variable and stronger than the southeast trades. The 1960 were characterized by a relatively flat interannual signal, but the [970s were more variable and were characterized by an equatorial convergent zone in the western ad middle Pacific. The EI Nifo sig- nalalso indicates difference between the ‘60s and the 70s, The Los Nifios of 1972 and 1976 were preceded by a one-year period of anomalous southeastrles. The Los Nis ofthe 1960s, on the other hhand, showed no such pattern. Common toall the Los Nifos during the analysis period was the onset of weseriesin the middle Pacifieat the beginning of each EI Nifo event. This period of westerliesex- tended for a time proportional to the relative strength of the asso- ciated El Nifo. The consistency of these westerlies also is related t0 the relative strength of each El Niko, 1. Introduction ‘When analyzing meteorological data, its useful 10 compute various statistical characteristics of that data, Calculation of an average or fitting a curve to the data isa relatively simple task and yields some highly useful information. However, when working with long-term records over large spatial areas, interpretation of these calculations yields results in either time or space, but usually not both. The method of principal components analysis, often referred to as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, can be utilized effec- tively tolink the spatial and temporal patterns of a data field This method partitions the temporal variance of the data into orthogonal spatial patterns called eigenvectors. These "First Place Winner, 1983, The Father James B. Macelwane An ‘nual Awards in Meteorology for original papers by undergraduate students David Legler was born and raised in Louisville, Ky. After ‘graduation from Saint Xavier High School. he attended Western Kentucky University for wo yeas. He attained his bachelor’s degsee in meteorology from Florida State University in spring 1982and is currently a graduate tadentat Florids State University under James 1 OBrien (© 1983 American Meteorological Society 234 eigenvectors are ranked in decreasing order according to the percent of the variance they account for. Each eigenvector also hasa series of coefficientsin time that modulate it. Phys- ical patterns are assigned to particular eigenvectors that ac- count for a large fraction of the variance, For example, in & calculated time series, ifa peak occursin the summer of every year, and the parameter analyzed was air temperature over the Northern Hemisphere, then this eigenvector might be the annual temperature signal over the Northern Hemisphere: cold air in the winter, warm air in the summer. In the past, empirical orthogonal functions have been uti- lized to analyze a variety of scalar fields. Clark and Peterson (4973) examined the variations of the St. Louis heat island, and found, as would be expected, thatthe spatial distribution of the heat island is primarily a function of land use, Precipi- tation data in Nevada during a period of 10 years was the basis for an eigenvector analysis by Stidd (1967). Kutzbach (1967) analyzed monthly mean sea level pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation over some 23 pointsin North, ‘America. Kutzbach's paper is recommended for a clear de- scription of EOF analysis; the previous papers ll considered, spatial cigenvectors with scalar components. Barnett (1977), took this scheme astep further by breaking wind vectors into components. He was able to utilize the scalar method to form an eigenvector analysis forthe Pacific trade wind field. How- ver, this was an analysis of two separate scalar fields. Why not consider the wind field as a vector quantity? This seems to bea fundamental consideration, Kundu and Allan (1976) used a vector EOF analysis on current meter data in the Oregon coast upwelling region. Hardy (1977) also consid- cred this technique of using EOF analysis ofa vector field. By ‘eating the horizontal wind as complex numbers, he was, able to calculate a realistic representation of the entire data set, Hardy and Walton (1978) applied this technique to winds over a mesoscale region at 10 stations. In my paper, Hardy and Walton’s method is applied to the tropical Pacific winds {or 1961-78. This extensive data base allows for an interest ing analysis using vector EOFs, In particular, we demon- strate that itis possible to obtain statistical information that could not be obtained using component scalar analysis. 2. Data ‘The tropical regions of the world's oceans are an important component in the earth's heat budget. These regions inter~ cept and store a larger quantity of heat than any comparable Vol. 64. No. 3. March 1983Bulletin Ameri in Meteorological Society land regions along the same latitude. Thisstored energy later is released and helps to drive the general circulation. Like- ‘wise, the circulation of the atmosphere helps to drive the ‘ocean currents and influences the flux of radiation from the ‘ocean surface. This coupled system is therefore an important component of the earth's atmospheric and oceanic circula~ tion. Understanding the time and space variability of the wind fields over the Pacific may help us to interpret the im- portant factors involved in this coupled system. In addition, major disturbances in the circulation of the ocean known as EI Nifio are thought to be caused directly by wind field dis- turbances (Busalacchi and O'Brien, 1981). By analyzing the wind fields over long time periods, the patterns of these dis- turbances are present in sufficient quantities to permit a de- scription of the disturbed wind field ‘The trade wind field over the Pacific is an enormous sys- tem; therefore, itis difficult to obtaina good set of wind meas- urements over a Jong period of time. Wyrtki and Meyers (1975a,b; 1976) undertook the rigorous task of processing ‘over five million ship observations taken between 30°N and. 30°S during the years 1900-70; Steve Pazan of Scripps Insti- tution of Oceanography extended the analysis to include the yeats 1971-78. They compiled their results into bins of aver~ ‘age monthly wind and wind stresses for a 2° latitude by 10° longitude grid. Because of the need fora finer grid and com- plete coverage to drive coupled atmosphere-ocean models, Goldenberg and O'Brien (1981) subjectively analyzed these 2 X 10° latitude-longitude grids into a 2° X 2° latitude- longitude grid for the years 1961-70, Recently this analysis, hhas been extended to 1978, Thus, 18 years of monthly aver~ age wind stress charts over the Pacific region 29°N-29°S are available. These data provided the basis for the calculations. in this paper. By smoothing across each 2 latitude, the grid was reduced from a 2° longitude grid spacing to a 6° longi- tude grid spacing. In addition, data north of 20°N and south of 20°S are not included. Thus, the data base analyzed here ‘contains monthly tropical Pacific wind stress data from 19°S to I9°Nona latitude by 6° longitude grid, a total of nearly 500 stations, This may represent too many stations for the information content; however, there is no a priori method known for reducing the data field further. 3. Method Applications of EOF analysis of scalar data have been uti- lized numerous times to derive the spatial and temporal rela~ tionsbetween meteorological and climatologicaldata, Barnett (1977) used the 2° latitude X 10° longitude data base devel- ‘oped by Wyrtki and Meyers (197Sa,b; 1976) in a scalar EOF analysis of the Pacific trade wind region during the period 1950-70, A more generalized form of EOF analysis, which analyzes vectors, is described here ‘The w and v components (u positive to the cast, v positive to the north) of the wind stress. are combined into one vector (complex number) at each geographic location. These vectors, Weutin, ‘are combined into a matrix containing these vectorsat N'sta- 235 tions for each of the M months. This NX M rectangular matrix, Wa Wa 2 Wa Wn ; w : ; Wo so Won contains the entire data set ‘A new matrix is defined as 1 r cy = 3 OW), where W denotes the complex conjugate transpose of W. His Hermitian and, by definition, 0) = 0H] H is symmetric ands composed of complex numbers, except for the diagonal elements, which are real numbers, The size of His477 X477 andisanalogous tothe variance-covariance matrix found in scalar eigenvector analyses. The diagonal elements ase proportional to the specific kinetic energy for each station, ‘The eigenvector decomposition of H, (ANCE) = EID. yields NV orthonormal spatial eigenvectors, each with wind stress veetors, represented by a complex number, at each of the 477 stations. The/* eigenvector, E, has an associated real eigenvalue, X, ‘This decomposition decomposes the variance of the data into 477 patterns, each explaining a percentage of the var~ iance of the data. The trace of His the total variance of the original data set. Therefore, since TRACE(H] = LA, the relative value of Ais the percent of varianee of the data represented by the associated eigenvector Ei ‘The set of N eigenvectors forms a complete orthonormal basis from which the original data can be represented. If the column vector, Wy isthe original data at any time m, coefficient for wae Uneeer nde “Thus, solving for this coefficient of eigenvector k at time m yields: Con = (ELT Cinis complex and unique. The time series ofthe coefficients for eigenvector Es is known asthe &® principal component. These calculations have provided a set of 477 spatial wind patterns (the eigenvectors) each consisting Of47 wind stress ach location. Each spatial pattera is (ed by atime series of complex coelicients. In Table 1, eigenvectors are ranked in decreasing order according to the percent of the variance of the data each accounts for.236 TABLE I. Variance accounted for b the eigenvectors Eigenvector __Pereent__Curmlative percent 5 384 384 B ox 22 B 48 70 B 39 509 5 28 337 4, Computations Data for the calculations consisted of 18 years of monthly wind stress observations. The long-term mean at each of the 477 stations (Fig. 1) was computed and subtracted from cach monthly chart, thereby resulting in a 216-month record of the tropical Pacific region from 19°S to 19°N, Because of the large size of [H] and the needed storage space, computation of the eigenvectors was completed at the National Center for ‘Atmospheric Research (NCAR) on the CRAY 1, Although the CRAY I has nearly a million words of storage, computa- tion of the eigenvectors required nearly all of the available storage. 5. Analysis This technique of EOFs enables us to examinea set of ortho- normal eigenvectors that represent the observed data. This technique does not yield results pertaining directly to the physics associated with the data. As mentioned before, the ‘eigenvectors must be examined and an appropriate physical interpretation assigned to particular eigenvectors. Often this physical interpretation is difficult. The EOF technique sep- arates the data into Fields ordered by most-often observed patterns. However, over anarea aslargeas the tropical Pacific, the signals from two or more physical processes may be over- laid, In other words, there are no restrictions as to how the patterns for particular physical processes may be divided up into the eigenvectors. In addition, a signal of significant Vol. 64, No. 3, March 1983 strength appearing in an arbitrary eigenvector also may ap- pear in another eigenvector as well Another consideration in examining these representations is the noise factor involved in the eigenvectors, Upon analyz- ing some of the not-so-significant eigenvectors, these pat tetns were found to represent non-physically associated patterns—noise. The eigenvalues determine the relative sig- nificance of their associated eigenvectors and therefore are & helpful index for determining noise levels. However, what if the eigenvector relative significance, determined by the eigen- values, remains near a constant level between real signals and noise signals? Which eigenvectors are noise? Overland and. Preisendorfer (1982) have described a technique that deter- ‘mines which eigenvectors represent noise. The few eigenvec- tors described in this paper are significantly different from Since the standard computer routines for caleulating the eigenvectors pick an arbitrary phase angle to orientate the wind stress vectors of the eigenvectors, adding an arbitrary rotation angle to each of the wind stress vectors ineach of the eigenvectors is possible, It will not change the orthonorms ity of the eigenvectors. Upon plotting the first eigenvector obtained from the NCAR routine. it was obvious that the ‘genvectors, and coefficients, should be rotated to aid in the interpretation. A 45° counterclockwise rotation would serve two purposes: it would align the wind stress vectors into more easily recognizable patterns: and it would also place the majority of the time coefficient variability into one of the components of the complex coefficients, Without rotation, ‘both components had an equal amount of variability, making analysis more difficult. Thus, the eigenvectors were rotated, 45°in a counterclockwise direction, and to retain correct rep- resentation, the coefficients were rotated 45° in a clockwise direction. ‘These coefficients have two components. The primary ‘component lies along the length of each wind stress vector arrowas in Fig, 2. Aa increase in this component indicates a lengthening ofall the vector arrows. The secondary compo- ‘nent lies normal to the primary component. An increase in the secondary component indicates a rotation of all the vec~ tors in a counterclockwise direction. Thus, each eigenvector pattern simply is rotated and amplified by the coefficients N eee eee = 88 8 Syosl + —t Tt 140E 160E = 180E_= 160H = 140W—«120N— 10H 80k Fic, 1. Bighteen-year average wind stress over the tropical Pacific, 1961-78.Bulletin American Meteorological Society Secondary Component Primary Component. Mind Stress Vector Fic. 2. Orientational axes for each wind stress vector in the spatial eigenvectors, 4. Eigenvector 1 The primary eigenvector (Fig. 3) and its associated time coef ficients (Fig. 4) account for 35% of the variance ofthe data By examining the primary component and secondary com ponent of £), itis evident that the primary component ac- counts for the majority of the orientational variance of E. Notice the fluctuations of this component from negative t0 positive, indicating at 180° oscillation. By examining Fig, 3, it is easy to see that this eigenvector is simply the annual signal—it represents the annual fluctuations of the trade winds. During the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, the northeast trades are strong; during the Southern Hemi- sphere winter and spring, the southeast trades are strong, ‘When sine wave ofa 12-month period isfitted tothe primary ‘component of the time series, it accounts for 92% of the var- iance in this component. Thus, the annual signal is predomi- rant in this eigenvector. In i, the northeast trades are of larger amplitude than the southeast trades. This isthe result of several effeets. For ex= ample. ifthe northeast trades vary much more than the south- east trades, the subtraction of the mean wind field from the 237 a ea er Fro. 4. Primary and secondary components corresponding to F Twelve-month running mean sindicated by a heavy in, Theamplic ude i normalized, ‘original data will favor the more varying wind system. Inad- dition, the northeast trade winds could be larger in terms of ‘wind stress values, This again would increase the amplitude difference between northeast and southeast trades. These two interpretations agree with Wyrtki and Meyers (1976), ‘The winds in the southeast Pacific are very small, indicating f. a oS SXZON LGELLLEEL LLG 222244N0 0) WEZZZEE G54 2222222222250 el SELEEEELLEELEEEZEZZGZGGYGGZE22 (0406970997994 FFE GD S88 CCC C77 bk soteh i¢ 0 > ree AES ar rnd ae: PARAL SS EEE EEE EEE ea! SSSSTS SPP Ess Perris srs 105 S BRS PS VS Vx ss< eer S Psi i NNN PPPs tlrir: YSEYRVUSUER PE EEEEEE PET bs as a 140E 160E 180E 160W 140W 120W 1000 BOW Fic, 3. Spatial eigenvector, 6. Vectors are dimensionless238 \ \ \ AWM 9 eezatomne SN\\\ 22222 SQ SQ een pao POA e Avi tite Cease | eer MIL EBLE IWS een Zeer W\\\ [over SONN Peer t eet SON | 7 \ x XX \\ (oz 2 Rg a a 180E —-160W Fig. 5. Spatial eigenvector, the small variability in this region Notice in the primary component, however, that, espe cially during the ‘60s, the southeast trades tended to have larger amplitudes during their predominant periods than the northeast trades had during their prominent periods. The "60s certainly do not represent the entire 18-year period adequately—the "70s show a definite increase in northeast- erly trades when compared to the 1960s. a faery ; sles ie se Fra, 6, Same as Fig. 4, but for E Vol. 64, No. 3, March 1983 LE SS20N: SOs ee eee veypeceree= weepsseaees i ‘ s 8 qf pppppeecrnNe 140 = 120N—«100H P ‘The annual signal is not evident in the secondary compo- nent. By fitting an annual wave, only 3% of the variance could be accounted for. It also is interesting to find that the 12-month running mean accounts for 51% ofthe variance of | the secondary component while accounting for only about 2% of the variance of the primary component. Thus the primary component is the annual signal ofthe Ey,and the sec- ondary component is the interannual signal of the During the 1972 EI Nifo, the interannual secondary com- ponent became positive, indicating a small counterclockwise rotation. The weaker Los Nifios of 1976, 1968-69, and 1965 also showed a rotation in the counterclockwise direction, but the peaks were shallower, not quite as well defined as those of 1972. Notice the difference between the two decades. The 1970s appear more variable when compared to the 1960s, a relatively flat decade. b. Bigenvector 2 Eigenvector 2(Fig. 5)is dominated by the in-phase pattern of, the winds on both sides of the equator in the western and middle Pacific. The area south of Hawaii to the equator is especially strong. ‘The coefficients of this eigenvector (Fig. 6) still show the majority of the variance of the coefficients to be in the pri- mary component. Therefore, as in £}, the individual wind stress vectors oscillate through a 180° shift with slight rot tional effects induced by the secondary component. When the primary component changes, both the northeasterly and the southeasterly wind stresses change in phase; when the nnortheasterlies increase in amplitude, the southeastertes also, increase in amplitude. The peaks, both negative and positive, correspond to times when Ej is zero, with a one to three ‘month lag. That is, the peaks in Eslag the zero times in Ei by fone to three months. Thus, when the trades in E; become weak, F: winds increase one to three months later. For the shift from northeasterlies to southeasterlies in Fi, Fs indi- cates @ confluence pattern to the west during the Northern ‘Hemisphere spring and early summer. The shift from south~ easterlies to northeasterlies in Eis followed by a diffluence pattern in the fall ‘The rotation of the vectors induced by the secondary com-