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5 Signs Venezuela’s Economy Could Rebound

Published by David Iaconangelo (http://xpatnation.com/author/david/)
June 3, 2015 11:22 am

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Venezuela’s economy is among the worst-performing in Latin America.

After a growth of 1.3 percent in 2013, it contracted 3 percent in 2014, according
(http://lta.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idLTAKBN0OE01V20150529) to president
Nicolás Maduro. Inflation stood at 63 percent. Shortages of food, medicine and basic
items have gotten worse (http://www.buzzfeed.com/karlazabludovsky/the-brain-drain-
from-venezuela) than ever.

Maduro’s government has responded to tough times by shifting the blame. In his speech,
Maduro attributed the recession to an “economic war” undertaken by political opposition
and Venezuelan business class, and heralded an official unemployment rate of 5.5
percent – historically low in Maduro’s view. Opponents also claim
(http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2015/05/29/actualidad/1432888068_673908.html) high
numbers of temporary and informal workers have inflated the figures.

Maduro, who casts himself as the upholder of late president Hugo Chavez’s legacy, won
the presidency in 2013 in a result widely seen as reflecting popular feeling for Chavez,
who died of cancer while still in office. In Maduro’s two years in office, support for his
government has eroded enough. Members of the fragmented opposition have begun to
speak (https://ca.news.yahoo.com/venezuela-parliamentary-elections-held-fourth-
quarter-184755447.html) of winning a majority of seats in the National Assembly in the
next parliamentary elections. The national electoral council hasn’t yet set a date for them,
KWWS[SDWQDWLRQFRPVLJQVYHQH]XHODVHFRQRP\FRXOGUHERXQG0W$K 

co. The national electoral council hasn’t yet set a date for them.net/news/Venezuela-y- Rusia-firman-acuerdo-por-la-produccion-petrolera-20150527-0074. low oil prices appear set to stay low for a while. Here are five things which could play a key role in deciding the future of the Venezuelan economy.htm) for about 25% of the national GDP. But it lacks the resources – or the technology – to explore and produce it. Related Content: The US Remains Hungry As Ever For Latin American Oil: But China And Russia Are Vying For Control (http://xpatnation. Venezuela has huge deposits in its western Zulia state. 6LJQV9HQH]XHOD V(FRQRP\&RXOG5HERXQG_. Oil (http://admin.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171. It’s low because shale gas and oil deposits across the world are starting to be tapped through hydraulic fracturing (or fracking). Maduro’s government signed (http://www.SDWQDWLRQ next parliamentary elections.pulsamerica. which is the biggest reason why its economy has retracted. accounting for 95 percent of its export revenues.uk/wp- content/uploads/2014/10/Venezuela-Chavista-In_Hugh.co/the-us-remains-hungry-as-ever-for-latin-american-oil-but- china-and-russia-are-vying-for-control/) Is Venezuelan Second in Command The Head Of The Country’s Biggest Drug Cartel? (http://xpatnation. 1. It’s just about the only thing Venezuela exports. The oil price is going to stay low for a while. The point is: if Venezuela’s government were in the position to quickly (and cheaply) exploit those oil and gas deposits. perhaps. The price per barrel dipped below even the conservative rate upon which the Venezuelan government makes its spending calculations. Venezuela has vast deposits of extra crude oil in the Orinoco Belt which it can’t easily refine.opec. Recently.co/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Venezuela-Chavista-In_Hugh.jpg)Image Source: Pulsa America (http://www. Black gold accounts (http://www. The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates (http://www. The country is facing an uphill battle for a recovery.telesurtv. but says they’ll be in the last quarter of 2015. In either case.eia.html) an agreement with Russian company Rosneft to help do so. it might climb its way out of recession.co/is-venezuelan-second-in-command-the-head-of-the-countrys- biggest-drug-cartel/) The Clock Is Ticking: Is Venezuelan Economy Heading To Despair? KWWS[SDWQDWLRQFRPVLJQVYHQH]XHODVHFRQRP\FRXOGUHERXQG0W$K  .jpg) Obvious. but it bears repeating.xpatnation.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/) it’s sitting on 13 billion barrels of untapped but technically extractable shale oil.

org/indicator/ST.mx/v_ingles/country/whatismegcountry. too. It ranks ninth in the world for biodiversity – it’s considered “megadiverse (http://www. it attracted (http://data. In December. (http://xpatnation. if it wanted.com/url? sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fxpatnation. It might be harder than imagined.gob. But compared to its South American neighbors. it has archaic tourist infrastructure.co%2Fthings- you-might-not-know-about- venezuela%2F&ei=XRdvVcmQPMTGsAWckIK4AQ&usg=AFQjCNHcoXMKYowDDJrzgRv1FtcfzBgvbA&bvm=bv. 6LJQV9HQH]XHOD V(FRQRP\&RXOG5HERXQG_.co/the-clock-is-ticking-is-venezuelan-economy-heading-to-despair/) 12 Things You Might Not Know About Venezuela (https://www.ARVL) less than a million visitors.google. which lured some 24 million.SDWQDWLRQ (http://xpatnation. And those shortages in basic goods apply (http://fusion.worldbank.net/2011/06/biodiverse-venezuela-flunking-basic-conservation/) 43 national parks and eight wildlife reserves. tropical and alpine.biodiversidad.d.html) it would seek to boost tourism profits from 4% to 9% of the national GDP.ipsnews.com) KWWS[SDWQDWLRQFRPVLJQVYHQH]XHODVHFRQRP\FRXOGUHERXQG0W$K  .94911696. However the lure of the world’s tallest waterfall has always been an advantage for Venezuela. and it has (http://www. in relation to number and diversity of animals and plants. The government knows this.b2w) 2. it announced (http://www. Tourism Venezuela hasn’t even considered the vast revenues which could be made on tourism.caribbeannewsnow. It has deserts and the Amazon rainforest. Compare that to similarly biodiverse Mexico.com/topstory-Venezuela-looks-to-tourism-to-shore-up- falling-oil-revenues-23982.html)”. The country is very beautiful. It is Andean (a cordillera runs through it) and Caribbean.net/story/113448/venezuelan-hotels-are-asking-tourists-to-bring-their- own-toilet-paper/) to tourists. The homicide rate in Caracas is the second-highest in the hemisphere.INT. In 2013.

migrationpolicy. or work in highly skilled labor.com/2010/11/07/world/americas/07venez.immigrationpolicy. Or.com/travel/365-photos/canaima-national-park-angel-falls/) 3. Venezuelans have abandoned their country in greater numbers. A high percentage of them are highly educated.org/pubs/SkilledMigration-Development. For Americans – or at least those who live in cities – it’s a familiar story.xpatnation. Coltan. India. or “Blue Gold” KWWS[SDWQDWLRQFRPVLJQVYHQH]XHODVHFRQRP\FRXOGUHERXQG0W$K  .jpg)Image Source: Heraldo (http://archivoimagenes. in the Migration Policy Institute’s sunny (http://www.heraldo. they transfer money.nytimes. But there’s another way to look at it: Venezuela will likely have a pool of professionals educated at the best colleges and with a greater access to capital.eluniversal. Venezuela has been a magnet for laborers and merchants from places like China. It’s not just the upper-middle and wealthy classes anymore. Immigration It’s not all one-way traffic. Lebanon and its neighbors. A high amount of students are also heading abroad for their education.jpg) Image Source: National Geographic – Travel (http://travel. 5.html). It started with the business and professional classes.SDWQDWLRQ (http://admin. As detailed in a 2010 New York Times article (http://www. Chavista ideology tends to look dimly upon these people.co/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/angel-falls. who fled to avert a vengeance when briefly deposed Chavista government returned to power.org/just-facts/value-added- immigrants-create-jobs-and-businesses-boost-wages-native-born-workers) than natives. Even if migrants do not return to their own countries. Haiti.co/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/1_68c74cfc. specially in the US. 6LJQV9HQH]XHOD V(FRQRP\&RXOG5HERXQG_. So there’s been a brain drain. Colombia and Spain. A rapprochement with them could be economically and symbolically important. Venezuela might do well to incentivize it. though.jpg?891335b2a5c8c16aacd833793ccafd7c) Since the mid-oughts. technology and even democratic ideas”. and it’s getting worse. and the economics of it function similarly there as in the US: immigrants produce more value for the wider economy (http://www. “Emigration has several overlooked benefits for countries of origin. 4.xpatnation. Experts assert as many as 1 million Venezuelans are living abroad.es/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2012/10/16/_1_68c74cfc.com/nacional-y-politica/140113/number-of-outgoing- venezuelans-on-the-rise) that as much as 60% of Venezuelan emigrants are skilled laborers. Emigration (http://admin.nationalgeographic. skills.pdf) estimation. The UN affirms (http://www.

bnamericas. is an ore used in a vast range of electronic materials. because it’s ideal (http://www. Poverty and Violence (http://xpatnation.co/10-facts-about-the- state-of-venezuela-today/) Venezuela: Beautiful Landscapes.com/nacional-y-politica/150208/la-guerrilla-tras-el-coltan) increasing their activities around the mineral’s trade in the remote zones where it’s found._says_Chavez) their value at $100 billion. the World’s Largest Oil Reserves.jpg) See Also:  5 Signs Venezuela’s Economy Could Rebound (http://xpatnation.icij. this one is like cocaine (http://www. Then he outlawed the mining of it.co/5-signs-venezuelas- economy-could-rebound/) The Five Most Important Referendums in Venezuela (http://xpatnation. But it’s a potentially big deal.com/news/mining/Coltan_reserves_may_be_worth_US*100bn. or coltan.SDWQDWLRQ 5. Coltan.com/url? sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fxpatnation.co/16-unusual- things-that-can-only-happen-in-venezuela/) 10 Facts About The State Of Venezuela Today (http://xpatnation.co/the-five-most- important-referendums-in-venezuela/) 16 Unusual Things That Can Only Happen In Venezuela (http://xpatnation.org/projects/coltan/five-things-you-need-know-about-coltan) for use in smart bombs.eluniversal. it’s a “conflict” material. from your cell phone to optical and medical equipment. 6LJQV9HQH]XHOD V(FRQRP\&RXOG5HERXQG_. Glorious Women. (http://admin. then- president Hugo Chavez put (http://www. When Venezuela’s reserves were discovered in its Amazon region in 2009.com/articles/venezuelan-officials-suspected- of-turning-country-into-global-cocaine-hub-1431977784): it’s illegal.co%2Fthings- KWWS[SDWQDWLRQFRPVLJQVYHQH]XHODVHFRQRP\FRXOGUHERXQG0W$K  . The majority of the coltan trade is centered in the Congo and other central African conflict zones. Columbite-tantalite. and it doesn’t count as any legitimate key to recovery. It is in high demand by militaries.google. But guerrilla groups – including Colombia’s FARC – are reportedly (http://www.wsj.co/venezuela-beautiful-landscapes-glorious- women-the-worlds-largest-oil-reserves-poverty-and-violence/) 12 Things You Might Not Know About Venezuela (https://www.co/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/coltan. or “Blue Gold” Well.xpatnation.

Venezuela Economy (http://xpatnation.com/5-signs.. Venezuela (http://xpatnation. Nicolas Maduro.com/category/nation/the- americas/).com/author/robin-scher/) | February 24. Venezuela (http://xpatnation.94911696.com/during-apartheid-these-south-african-artists-sought-refuge-in-new-york/) By Robin Scher (http://xpatnation. 6LJQV9HQH]XHOD V(FRQRP\&RXOG5HERXQG_.d.com/during-apartheid-these-south-african-artists-sought-refuge-in-new-york/) During Apartheid South Africa These 6 Black Artists Sought Refuge In New York (http://xpatnation.com/tag/learn-about-the-world/).com/share? Signs Venezuela’s Economy Could url=http://xpatnation.com/tag/nicolas-maduro/). 2016 KWWS[SDWQDWLRQFRPVLJQVYHQH]XHODVHFRQRP\FRXOGUHERXQG0W$K  .com/category/nation/the-americas/venezuela/) TAGGED WITH Learn About The World (http://xpatnation.com/category/technology/).com/tag/venezuela-economy/) &RPPHQWV 6RUWE\ 2OGHVW $GGDFRPPHQW )DFHERRN&RPPHQWV3OXJLQ (http://xpatnation. Rebound&body=http://xpatnation..com/tag/venezuela/).com/during-apartheid-these-south-african-artists-sought- refuge-in-new-york/) Searching For Freedom: Beautiful expression is often borne of hardship.com/category/nation/).SDWQDWLRQ sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fxpatnation. Technology (http://xpatnation. News (http://xpatnation.com/author/david/) CATEGORIZED INBy Nation (http://xpatnation. The art that emerged out. The Americas (http://xpatnation.co%2Fthings- you-might-not-know-about- venezuela%2F&ei=XRdvVcmQPMTGsAWckIK4AQ&usg=AFQjCNHcoXMKYowDDJrzgRv1FtcfzBgvbA&bvm=bv.com/category/immigration/).co/category/nation/the- americas/venezuela/)  SHARE  TWEET  EMAIL (mailto:?subject=5 (https://twitter. Immigration (http://xpatnation.com/category/news/).com/5- venezuelas-economy-could. more (http://xpatnation.b2w) Additional Reading: Xpatnation Venezuela (http://xpatnation. signs-venezuelas-economy-could- rebound/&text=5 Signs Venezuela’s rebound/) Economy Could Rebound&via=XpatNation) WRITTEN BY David Iaconangelo (http://xpatnation. (http://xpatnation.

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