May 17th 2018 www.tooclosetocall.

ca

OLP PC NDP Green

% 25.0 40.1 29.5 4.3
seats 10 79 35 0
chances of winning* 0.2% 99.6% 0.2% 0.0%
chances of a majority 0.0% 85.3% 0.0% 0.0% Probability to win the riding

OLP PC NDP Green OLP PC NDP Green

Ajax 34.8% 40.3% 22.4% 2.5% 44.39% 55.21% 0.40% 0.00%
Algoma—Manitoulin 6.5% 29.3% 61.5% 2.7% 0.00% 0.09% 99.91% 0.00%
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 30.1% 50.2% 16.7% 3.0% 4.57% 95.43% 0.00% 0.00%
Barrie—Innisfil 24.1% 48.4% 22.4% 5.2% 0.24% 99.64% 0.12% 0.00%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 24.4% 47.8% 21.6% 6.3% 0.17% 99.78% 0.05% 0.00%
Bay of Quinte 21.6% 51.1% 22.7% 4.5% 0.09% 99.83% 0.08% 0.00%
Beaches—East York 25.7% 23.3% 46.0% 4.9% 1.68% 0.82% 97.50% 0.00%
Brampton Centre 23.4% 36.9% 34.4% 5.3% 5.19% 52.57% 42.24% 0.00%
Brampton East 17.0% 26.3% 55.4% 1.3% 0.00% 0.02% 99.98% 0.00%
Brampton North 24.7% 35.9% 36.7% 2.8% 6.37% 37.29% 56.34% 0.00%
Brampton South 29.6% 39.1% 28.7% 2.6% 25.55% 65.51% 8.94% 0.00%
Brampton West 30.4% 35.0% 32.8% 1.8% 35.54% 35.04% 29.42% 0.00%
Brantford—Brant 20.1% 40.4% 36.2% 3.4% 0.14% 75.68% 24.18% 0.00%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 13.7% 57.0% 21.3% 8.0% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Burlington 27.5% 48.5% 20.4% 3.6% 3.36% 96.58% 0.06% 0.00%
Cambridge 22.7% 41.5% 30.8% 5.1% 0.81% 90.90% 8.29% 0.00%
Carleton 16.4% 61.1% 17.2% 5.2% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 9.1% 46.1% 40.2% 4.6% 0.00% 68.93% 31.07% 0.00%
Davenport 30.3% 17.4% 47.8% 4.6% 5.15% 0.00% 94.85% 0.00%
Don Valley East 42.2% 35.1% 19.7% 3.0% 78.15% 21.77% 0.08% 0.00%
Don Valley North 36.4% 42.4% 18.2% 3.0% 26.59% 73.39% 0.02% 0.00%
Don Valley West 40.2% 37.4% 19.6% 2.8% 62.61% 37.33% 0.06% 0.00%
Dufferin—Caledon 17.1% 51.0% 16.4% 15.5% 0.07% 99.92% 0.01% 0.00%
Durham 19.2% 43.3% 34.1% 3.4% 0.48% 82.63% 16.89% 0.00%
Eglinton—Lawrence 38.6% 44.0% 14.7% 2.7% 29.74% 70.26% 0.00% 0.00%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 5.4% 56.4% 33.9% 4.3% 0.00% 98.58% 1.42% 0.00%
Essex 0.0% 31.0% 66.1% 2.9% 0.00% 0.03% 99.97% 0.00%
Etobicoke Centre 30.4% 47.7% 19.7% 2.3% 3.15% 96.83% 0.02% 0.00%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 32.5% 43.9% 19.9% 3.7% 10.70% 89.24% 0.06% 0.00%
Etobicoke North 31.2% 32.9% 33.9% 2.0% 30.84% 39.10% 30.06% 0.00%
Flamborough—Glanbrook 18.0% 46.3% 31.6% 4.2% 0.25% 92.90% 6.85% 0.00%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 35.6% 42.2% 19.3% 2.8% 19.93% 80.03% 0.04% 0.00%
Guelph 23.5% 31.8% 26.1% 18.6% 8.80% 75.38% 15.18% 0.64%
Haldimand—Norfolk 8.5% 59.6% 27.8% 4.1% 0.00% 99.97% 0.03% 0.00%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 21.7% 49.4% 25.3% 3.6% 0.09% 99.48% 0.43% 0.00%
Hamilton Centre 5.6% 23.9% 61.8% 8.7% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 13.7% 29.3% 53.6% 3.4% 0.00% 0.06% 99.94% 0.00%
Hamilton Mountain 11.8% 28.6% 55.9% 3.8% 0.00% 0.04% 99.96% 0.00%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 25.8% 36.1% 33.5% 4.5% 14.19% 47.78% 38.03% 0.00%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington 14.4% 51.7% 28.6% 5.3% 0.00% 99.19% 0.81% 0.00%
Humber River—Black Creek 27.3% 22.7% 48.9% 1.1% 1.45% 0.23% 98.32% 0.00%
Huron—Bruce 16.5% 49.3% 31.2% 2.9% 0.00% 96.35% 3.65% 0.00%
Kanata—Carleton 21.6% 53.3% 18.7% 6.4% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kenora—Rainy River 0.0% 39.2% 58.4% 2.4% 0.00% 3.00% 97.00% 0.00%
Kiiwetinoong 0.7% 23.8% 72.2% 3.3% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Kingston and the Islands 23.9% 32.4% 36.6% 7.0% 3.82% 37.40% 58.78% 0.00%
King—Vaughan 34.9% 44.6% 18.0% 2.5% 28.60% 71.34% 0.06% 0.00%
Kitchener Centre 26.9% 34.2% 33.3% 5.6% 8.55% 57.25% 34.20% 0.00%
Kitchener—Conestoga 22.9% 45.5% 26.0% 5.7% 0.30% 97.96% 1.74% 0.00%
Kitchener South—Hespeler 23.7% 40.8% 29.9% 5.6% 0.99% 91.99% 7.02% 0.00%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 5.7% 55.5% 34.7% 4.0% 0.00% 97.83% 2.17% 0.00%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 11.1% 58.8% 23.7% 6.5% 0.00% 99.98% 0.02% 0.00%
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
3.5% 68.8% 23.2% 4.5% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
London—Fanshawe 5.7% 32.9% 57.9% 3.6% 0.00% 0.53% 99.47% 0.00%
London North Centre 15.2% 38.2% 41.8% 4.8% 0.02% 44.32% 55.66% 0.00%
London West 9.1% 39.5% 47.9% 3.5% 0.00% 18.48% 81.52% 0.00%
Markham—Stouffville 32.3% 46.1% 18.3% 3.2% 16.49% 83.48% 0.03% 0.00%
Markham—Thornhill 34.7% 47.0% 16.4% 1.9% 20.53% 79.47% 0.00% 0.00%
Markham—Unionville 24.5% 54.3% 17.9% 3.3% 0.22% 99.78% 0.00% 0.00%
Milton 27.4% 49.2% 20.4% 3.0% 2.72% 97.22% 0.06% 0.00%
Mississauga Centre 35.2% 39.5% 22.9% 2.5% 51.56% 47.58% 0.86% 0.00%
Mississauga East—Cooksville 34.0% 41.1% 21.7% 3.2% 39.72% 59.95% 0.33% 0.00%
Mississauga—Erin Mills 33.4% 42.7% 22.1% 1.8% 30.71% 68.95% 0.34% 0.00%
Mississauga—Lakeshore 27.5% 46.6% 23.2% 2.7% 5.47% 94.07% 0.46% 0.00%
Mississauga—Malton 32.1% 34.7% 31.0% 2.3% 48.97% 32.52% 18.51% 0.00%
Mississauga—Streetsville 34.5% 42.0% 20.1% 3.4% 37.50% 62.33% 0.17% 0.00%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 12.1% 19.9% 67.1% 0.9% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nepean 24.9% 51.7% 18.5% 4.9% 0.16% 99.84% 0.00% 0.00%
Newmarket—Aurora 29.1% 49.1% 18.2% 3.6% 4.54% 95.45% 0.01% 0.00%
Niagara Centre 4.1% 37.2% 55.2% 3.5% 0.00% 1.29% 98.71% 0.00%
Niagara Falls 0.0% 42.8% 54.4% 2.8% 0.00% 5.16% 94.84% 0.00%
Niagara West 8.7% 59.1% 26.9% 5.3% 0.00% 99.94% 0.06% 0.00%
Nickel Belt 3.8% 23.7% 69.3% 3.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nipissing 13.6% 51.9% 31.3% 3.2% 0.00% 98.24% 1.76% 0.00%
Northumberland—Peterborough South 26.3% 44.8% 25.1% 3.7% 1.30% 98.00% 0.70% 0.00%
Oakville 32.5% 50.0% 14.3% 3.2% 9.35% 90.65% 0.00% 0.00%
Oakville North—Burlington 30.1% 49.1% 18.0% 2.8% 6.10% 93.89% 0.01% 0.00%
Orléans 38.3% 42.9% 15.6% 3.1% 27.52% 72.47% 0.01% 0.00%
Oshawa 6.2% 42.1% 48.4% 3.3% 0.00% 14.70% 85.30% 0.00%
Ottawa Centre 36.7% 23.6% 32.2% 7.5% 68.74% 5.42% 25.84% 0.00%
Ottawa South 35.6% 41.5% 19.0% 3.9% 22.92% 77.01% 0.07% 0.00%
Ottawa—Vanier 41.9% 31.9% 21.4% 4.8% 80.57% 19.16% 0.27% 0.00%
Ottawa West—Nepean 30.9% 42.5% 20.8% 5.8% 7.60% 92.27% 0.13% 0.00%
Oxford 10.3% 54.8% 30.8% 4.1% 0.00% 99.33% 0.67% 0.00%
Parkdale—High Park 26.2% 23.0% 46.0% 4.9% 1.44% 0.35% 98.21% 0.00%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 12.9% 50.1% 18.4% 18.5% 0.00% 99.95% 0.04% 0.01%
Perth—Wellington 22.2% 48.8% 24.8% 4.2% 0.07% 99.54% 0.39% 0.00%
Peterborough—Kawartha 30.2% 40.8% 25.3% 3.8% 9.74% 88.88% 1.38% 0.00%
Pickering—Uxbridge 31.1% 44.1% 21.0% 3.8% 17.39% 82.43% 0.18% 0.00%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 2.1% 74.7% 20.4% 2.9% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Richmond Hill 32.0% 47.8% 17.4% 2.8% 11.45% 88.54% 0.01% 0.00%
Sarnia—Lambton 3.3% 49.8% 43.0% 4.0% 0.00% 71.06% 28.94% 0.00%
Sault Ste. Marie 26.2% 33.0% 38.9% 1.9% 4.54% 31.80% 63.66% 0.00%
Scarborough—Agincourt 34.2% 44.5% 19.2% 2.1% 14.17% 85.83% 0.00% 0.00%
Scarborough Centre 34.4% 32.8% 30.2% 2.6% 51.81% 36.13% 12.06% 0.00%
Scarborough—Guildwood 34.9% 38.1% 24.6% 2.4% 37.32% 61.68% 1.00% 0.00%
Scarborough North 25.8% 40.0% 33.1% 1.1% 3.23% 82.93% 13.84% 0.00%
Scarborough—Rouge Park 32.5% 34.3% 31.4% 1.8% 37.42% 46.76% 15.82% 0.00%
Scarborough Southwest 34.2% 30.9% 31.2% 3.7% 55.37% 26.60% 18.03% 0.00%
Simcoe—Grey 16.9% 56.3% 19.7% 7.2% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Simcoe North 21.0% 47.8% 23.8% 7.4% 0.00% 99.98% 0.02% 0.00%
Spadina—Fort York 32.9% 27.5% 34.5% 5.1% 47.43% 12.19% 40.38% 0.00%
St. Catharines 24.1% 39.4% 33.1% 3.4% 5.44% 68.18% 26.38% 0.00%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 6.3% 64.6% 26.8% 2.3% 0.00% 99.99% 0.01% 0.00%
Sudbury 21.3% 25.8% 49.8% 3.2% 0.10% 0.61% 99.29% 0.00%
Thornhill 28.8% 56.4% 13.0% 1.8% 0.98% 99.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 32.8% 25.4% 38.6% 3.1% 28.08% 7.23% 64.69% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 35.9% 19.8% 40.8% 3.4% 34.39% 1.12% 64.49% 0.00%
Timiskaming—Cochrane 5.3% 29.3% 64.0% 1.5% 0.00% 0.06% 99.94% 0.00%
Timmins 2.5% 42.3% 53.6% 1.6% 0.00% 12.82% 87.18% 0.00%
Toronto Centre 44.2% 23.2% 28.1% 4.5% 96.77% 0.99% 2.24% 0.00%
Toronto—Danforth 24.5% 20.5% 50.1% 4.9% 0.19% 0.02% 99.79% 0.00%
Toronto—St. Paul's 42.5% 34.6% 18.1% 4.9% 79.85% 20.12% 0.03% 0.00%
University—Rosedale 32.8% 28.4% 32.0% 6.8% 53.69% 19.17% 27.14% 0.00%
Vaughan—Woodbridge 40.7% 39.9% 17.6% 1.8% 70.52% 29.47% 0.01% 0.00%
Waterloo 18.6% 36.0% 41.1% 4.2% 0.04% 27.19% 72.77% 0.00%
Wellington—Halton Hills 18.1% 55.5% 19.8% 6.6% 0.00% 99.99% 0.01% 0.00%
Whitby 19.2% 52.0% 25.1% 3.7% 0.10% 99.48% 0.42% 0.00%
Willowdale 36.5% 41.7% 18.3% 3.5% 30.54% 69.45% 0.01% 0.00%
Windsor—Tecumseh 0.7% 25.2% 69.0% 5.1% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Windsor West 23.7% 24.8% 48.8% 2.6% 0.27% 0.69% 99.04% 0.00%
York Centre 28.8% 42.6% 25.8% 2.8% 5.91% 93.19% 0.90% 0.00%
York South—Weston 32.1% 21.1% 44.9% 1.9% 12.65% 0.42% 86.93% 0.00%
York—Simcoe 24.3% 44.6% 25.5% 5.7% 0.85% 97.42% 1.73% 0.00%

*Winning=winning the most seats, excluding ties