Investigating Population Growth

The “Avril Gulf Tuna Population Simulation” allows you to investigate what happens to the
sustainability of a population of fish as various factors change. You will also determine how
limiting factors affect population growth rates. With populations, a ​limiting factor ​is the factor
that controls the growth of the population. For example, if a population of plants has plenty of
sunlight, good soil, nutrients, and water but there is a herd of goats constantly grazing on the
plants, the size of the population of plants is limited by the goats. The goats are the limiting
factor in that scenario. Some factors are ​density-dependent factors,​ which means they vary
according to how dense the population is. For example, a contagious disease is
density-dependent because the number of organisms that become sick depends on how dense the
population is and, therefore, how easily the disease is transmitted. Some factors are
density-independent factors​, such as seasons or severe weather, which affect organisms
regardless of population density.

There are four stages to the simulation. The first three stages explore different factors that affect
population growth rates. The fourth stage combines all the factors of the previous three stages.
As you work through the simulation, carefully follow the instructions provided at each stage.

Procedure:
1.​ ​Go to the website ​Avril Gulf Tuna Population Simulation

2.​ ​Work with your partner to follow the tutorial in the simulation to familiarize yourself with
how the simulation works. Read each screen carefully and be sure you understand each part of
the tutorial before moving to Stage 1 of the simulation. ​DO NOT SKIP THE TUTORIAL!

3.​ ​In Stage 1, click on the “Show Normal Population Growth” box to see the graph of what
happens to this population if reproduction, migration, and death rates are moderate.

4.​ E
​ xplore what happens to the population as you change the three variables.

a. What variable settings cause the population growth rate to increase?​[High

reproduction, moderate migration, and moderate death. ] [Moderate reproduction, high
migration, and moderate death. ] [Moderate reproduction, moderate migration, and low death]

b. What settings cause it to decrease? [​Low reproduction, moderate migration, and

moderate death. ] [Moderate reproduction, moderate migration, high death] [Moderate migration,
low migration, and moderate death] [Low reproduction, low migration, and moderate death]
 c. What settings cause the population growth rate to stay steady? ​Low reproduction,
low migration, low death.

d. What are the limiting factors? ​Reproduction rate, migration rate, and death rate.

5.​ ​Scientific advisors to the fishery have determined that the population is sustainable at 60,000
fish. Use the simulation to determine what settings for the three variables maintain the
population at 60,000 fish (You may have to make a few attempts to do this, so don’t get
discouraged if you don’t do it on the first try).

Insert a screenshot of the graph and the settings below.

I had a lot of trouble with this part.

6.​ ​Scientific advisors have reexamined the population data for the Avril Gulf tuna and
determined that the population is sustainable at 80,000 fish.

With your partner, ​make a prediction as to which settings would maintain the
population at 80,000 fish.
Low - Low - High

Test your prediction in the simulation. If your prediction was incorrect, change the
settings as you run the simulation so that the population is maintained at 80,000 fish.
 Insert a screenshot of the graph and the settings below.

I had a lot of trouble with this part.

7.​ ​Move to Stage 2, and repeat Steps 4 through 6. Note that in Stage 2 you cannot control
pollution or disease events, which will occur at random intervals.

a. What variable settings cause the population growth rate to increase?

b. What settings cause it to decrease?’ ​[Many predators, Abundant food][Little food,

No predators]

c. What settings cause the population growth rate to stay steady? ​No predators,
Abundant food

d. What are the limiting factors? ​Predators, Food

Insert a screenshot of the 60,000 fish graph and the settings below.
Prediction of the settings to maintain 80,000 fish:
No predators, Abundant Food

Insert a screenshot of the 80,000 fish graph and the settings below.
8.​ M
​ ove to Stage 3, and repeat Steps 4 through 6.
a. What variable settings cause the population growth rate to increase? ​No fishing
for any of the seasons

b. What settings cause it to decrease?​ [Heavy summer fishing, no fall/winter/spring

fishing], [Heavy fall fishing, no summer/winter/spring fishing], [Heavy winter
fishing, no summer/fall/spring fishing], [Heavy spring fishing, no
summer/fall/winter fishing]

c. What settings cause the population growth rate to stay steady? ​No fishing for any
of the seasons

d. What are the limiting factors? ​Fishing in certain times of the year

Insert a screenshot of the 60,000 fish graph and the settings below.
Prediction of the settings to maintain 80,000 fish:
Heavy summer fishing

Insert a screenshot of the 80,000 fish graph and the settings below.
9.​ ​Move to Stage 4. In this stage, all of the factors are combined. Predict what settings will
allow for a ​maximum amount​ of fishing while maintaining the fish population (i.e., have a
sustainable fishery). Repeat Steps 4 through 6, but incorporate the maximum amount of fishing
possible.
a. What variable settings cause the population growth rate to increase? ​High
reproduction, Low death, No fishing in any of the seasons, no predators, abundant
food

b. What settings cause it to decrease?​ Low migration, High death, Many predators,
Little food, Fishing in the seasons, low reproduction

c. What settings cause the population growth rate to stay steady? ​Moderate
reproduction/migration/death, little predators, abundant food, no seasonal fishing

d. What are the limiting factors?​ Reproduction, migration, death, predators, food,
seasonal fishing

Insert a screenshot of the 60,000 fish graph and the settings below.
 Prediction of the settings to maintain 80,000 fish:
High reproduction, moderate migration/death, little predators, abundant food, no seasonal
fishing

Insert a screenshot of the 80,000 fish graph and the settings below.
10.​ ​Independently, answer the Discussion Questions below.

Discussion Questions

1.​ ​How does each of the factors in the simulation affect the sustainability of the fish
population?
Reproduction​- Affects the population by maintaining the birth rate. If reproduction is low, the
birth rate decreases. If reproduction is high, the birth rate increases.
Migration​- Affects the population by regulating how much of the population migrates
seasonally. If migration is high, more individuals migrate. If migration is low, less individuals
migrate.
Death​- Affects the population by maintaining the death rate. If death is high, the death rate
increases. If death is low, the death rate decreases.
Predators​- Affects the population by regulating how many individuals are killed by predation. If
predators are many, then more individuals are eaten. If predators are little, then less individuals
are eaten.
Food​- Affects the population by regulating how many individuals die from starvation. If food is
little, then more individuals starve. If food is abundant, then less individuals starve.
Disease​- Affects the population by killing off individuals due to infection. The denser the
population, the more likely a population will die from infection. The less dense the population,
the less likely a population will die from infection.
Pollution​- Affects the population by killing off individuals due to the toxicity of pollution. The
denser the population, the more they are affected by pollution. The less dense the population, the
less they are affected by pollution.
Seasonal Fishing​- Affects the population by reducing the number of individuals present. The
heavier the fishing, regardless of the season, the more individuals are killed. The lesser the
fishing, the less individuals are killed.

2.​ ​Based on your work in this activity, describe the relationship between birth and death rates
and the growth rate of the population.
Birth and death rates affect the population by regulating how many individuals are present in the
population at a given point. High birth rates increases the population while high death rates offset
it by decreasing the population for every birth. Low birth rates decrease the population, but the
harshness is lessened with low death rates. By combining the birth rate and death rate, you get an
“evening” effect occur in the population, which is seen by the growth rate of the population over
time.

3.​ ​Which factors are density-dependent and which are density-independent?

Factors that are density dependent are disease and population. The density-independent factors
are reproduction, migration, death, predators, food, and seasonal fishing.

4.​ ​Based on your work in this activity, describe the relationship between carrying capacity and
the size of a population.
The carrying capacity is the maximum population size a given habitat can sustain. Population
size is the amount of individuals in a given area. These two terms are related in the fact that
population size can continue to increase, but only to a certain point. This point is considered by
scientists to be the point where the population reaches its carrying capacity.
5. How could a model, such as this simulation, help fisheries biologists make recommendations
about setting fishing limits?
Simulations can help fisheries biologists make recommendations about setting fishing limits
because they can observe how certain amounts of fishing affect the population. Depending on
how many individuals they want left over after each fishing season, they can use a simulation to
gauge what limit to set in order to maintain the population size. This way consumers can fish and
the population isn’t negatively affected in any way.