Sun Burn?

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You’ve heard the news: Earth is getting warmer. In the past century, the planet’s surface has warmed by 0.8
degrees Celsius (1.44 degrees Fahrenheit). Seventy-five percent of that rise in temperature has occurred during
the past 35 years.
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Most scientists believe that greenhouse gases released by the burning of coal and oil—mostly carbon dioxide
and methane—are largely to blame. But some people are skeptical. They say the sun might be turning up the
heat.
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If so, they contend, trying to slow global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions is just a waste of time.
Might they be right?
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Star Bright
Changes in Earth’s temperature can be related to changes in the sun’s brightness or total solar irradiance (TSI).
TSI is the total amount of sunlight that reaches the top of Earth’s atmosphere. It’s measured by instruments
called radiometers. The higher the TSI, the more solar energy that reaches Earth.
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TSI varies slightly and regularly over time. The main cause of that dimmer-switch effect is sunspot activity.
Sunspots are fierce magnetic storms that rage on the sun’s surface.
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From Earth, sunspots appear as dark spots on the sun’s surface. You might think such blemishes would dampen
the sun’s brightness. Not so, explains Lon Hood, a planetary physicist at the University of Arizona. “The main
effect is an increase in TSI, due to the brightening of areas around sunspots,” says Hood.
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Sunspots usually wax and wane in number in 11-year cycles. The difference in TSI during those cycles isn’t all
that much, but it’s still measurable. “Overall, TSI increases by less than one-tenth of a percent from a solar
minimum [lowest number of sunspots] to a solar maximum [highest number of sunspots],” Hood told Current
Science.
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Opposite Trends
From about 1880 to 1950, the number of sunspots observed per solar maximum nearly doubled, says Terry
Sloan, an expert on cosmic rays at Lancaster University in England. Could that sunspot surge account for some
of our century-long warming trend?
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It may have contributed some-what to global warming in the first half of the 20th century, say Sloan and other
scientists, but not in the second half. The surge in sunspots did not continue after 1950. And except for the usual
variations that occur during each sunspot cycle, TSI has not been climbing either. In fact, explains Drew
Shindell, a NASA climate scientist, TSI and Earth’s temperature are now moving in opposite directions.
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“Since 1979, very accurate measurements from satellites tell us what the sun’s output has been,” says Shindell.
“During that period, it has slightly decreased, while Earth has warmed more rapidly than in any 30-year period
for centuries or more. Hence, the sun can’t be blamed for that.”
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 Sun Burn?
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Cosmic Forecast
So sunspot activity hasn’t directly added more heat to Earth’s climate in recent decades. Might it be warming
the planet in another, more roundabout, way, however—by affecting Earth’s cloud cover? Clouds have a cooling
effect on climate because they reflect the sun’s energy. So fewer clouds could indeed lead to warming.
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How might sunspots affect cloud cover? The magnetic disturbances caused by sunspots extend all the way to
Earth. Such disturbances shield the planet from cosmic rays. Cosmic rays are energetic particles that enter
Earth’s atmosphere from outer space. During each solar minimum, the number of cosmic rays reaching Earth
increases. During each solar maximum, the number of cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases.
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Some Danish scientists think cosmic rays may cause clouds to form by ionizing air molecules. An ionized
molecule has an electric charge. Ionized molecules might attract water molecules, causing clouds to form. If
that’s true, then a long-term increase in sunspot activity leading to a decrease in cosmic rays might reduce
Earth’s cloud cover and warm the planet.
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Cosmic rays do cause some ionization in the atmosphere. That’s a fact. So far, however, no one has been able to
prove that the ionization leads to cloud formation. “It remains very controversial,” Hood says.
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What’s more, adds Sloan, the number of cosmic rays has held steady since 1950. But temperatures have soared.
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Heated Debate
In the end, few scientists think that the sun is the main cause of today’s global warming. Most say that while
solar variation could have a small degree of influence, its effect now pales compared with the effects of ever-
increasing greenhouse gases. “I think the skeptics are hopeful that it is the sun and not mankind that is causing
the warming,” says Sloan. “But the evidence points the other way.”
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Still, scientists have much more to learn about the sun, notes Leon Golub, a solar physicist with Harvard
University. So a heated debate is worth having. “I would call it a discussion, and it’s a good one,” he says. “It
raises questions that I think are important to investigate.”
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Spot Check
Sunspots are fierce magnetic storms on the sun. They increase and decrease in number in 11-year cycles, as
shown by the top graph. They affect the brightness of the sun—the amount of energy radiated by it. Over time,
the maximum number of sunspots per 11-year cycle can also increase or decrease. The middle graph shows how
long-term changes in sunspot activity affected the sun’s brightness between 1880 and 2000. The bottom graph is
a record of changes in the temperature of Earth’s surface during the same period. Although a rise in Earth’s
temperature roughly coincided with an increase in brightness until about 1960, since then global warming has
intensified while brightness has decreased.

Graph is on the following page