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Activities guide and evaluation rubric

Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3

Unit

Academic Level Professional

Academic Field Disciplinary training

Course Name Theory of decisions

Course Code 212066

Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐

enabled

Number of Credits 3

Individual ☐ Collaborative ☒ 3

activity: weeks

Moment of Unit

Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐

evaluation: Intermediate:

Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:

75 points Collaborative learning

Starting date of the activity:

Deadline of the activity: Sunday, May 06, 2018

Monday, April 16, 2018

Competence to develop:

environments and/or uncertainty, for the taking of decisions and the optimization of the

expected results.

Topics to develop:

The academic course consists of three (3) academic credits, whose field of training is the

discipline and has a professional nature- elective in the program of industrial engineering

that offer the UNAD; in addition, it is theoretical. After you understand and internalize the

knowledge of the three preliminary courses of operations research (linear programming

methods deterministic, probabilistic methods) and the support in the acquired knowledge

in statistics and probability and Statistical Inference, the student is able to start the course

of decision theory, where it seeks to understand the methods, operations and definitions

on the different techniques of application in the decisions that depend on the type and

quality of the information obtained.

Phase 6. Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3, taking into account the

following steps:

Stage 18. Individual activity: Individual review of the activity guide and bibliographical

references required and complementary for the development of the activity.

Group activities:

Stage 19. Discussion and analysis of the problems raised, revision of the algorithms to

be applied and development of the activities proposed in the Collaborative Learning

Environment.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the problems

solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all

the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups

the proposed problems is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be

done according to the contributions presented individually.

Stage 20. Development of practical activities, use of Excel Solver. Review of the guides

in the Practical Learning Environment

Stage 21. Individual e-portfolio solving in the evaluation and monitoring environment.

Stage 22. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring

Environment.

Activities to develop

Stage 18. Individual activity: With the reading and analysis of the problem contained in

the integrated guide of activities which is in the Collaborative Learning Environment, the

scenarios are reviewed, preparing to discuss the solution of the problem.

Do not forget to gather the necessary information to learn new concepts, principles and

skills that will help you in the process. In the Collaborative Work forum and in the

discussion topic called Phase 4. Collaborative work 2, start the activity by calling

colleagues, identifying the roles and pointing out the one you will assume.

Stage 19. The team should use the knowledge they already have, the details of the

problems that are proposed and that will be discussed for its subsequent resolution. It

outlines the possible algorithms that will need to solve each of the decision problems

under risk environment. Generate a list of response methods group, then solve them

according to the following indications of the problem:

XYZ insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you

have not had accidents the last two years will be charged for the new policy $ 1,580,000

(state 0); if you have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged $

2,150,000 (State 1); If you had accidents the first of the last two years you will be charged

$ 1,630,000 (state 2) and if you had an accident the second of the last two years will be

charged $ 1,550,000 (State 3). The historical behavior of each state is given by the

following cases of accident, taken in four different events.

In Colombia there are 5 main mobile operators such as Tigo, Comcel, Movistar, ETB and

Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each client

has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.

TIGO 0,18 0,28 0,19 0,18 0,17

COMCEL 0,21 0,23 0,17 0,25 0,14

MOVISTAR 0,19 0,16 0,23 0,26 0,16

ETB 0,18 0,19 0,23 0,21 0,19

UFF 0,22 0,23 0,19 0,17 0,19

Telephony (Transition Matrix)

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.25 for

Comcel 0.2, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).

In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel, Movistar,

ETB and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each

client has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.

AVANTEL 0,19 0,18 0,17 0,15 0,19 0,12

TIGO 0,17 0,15 0,16 0,16 0,18 0,18

COMCEL 0,16 0,19 0,17 0,17 0,16 0,15

MOVISTAR 0,18 0,18 0,19 0,18 0,15 0,12

ETB 0,15 0,16 0,19 0,15 0,18 0,17

UFF 0,15 0,16 0,17 0,19 0,18 0,15

Telephony (Transition Matrix)

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Avantel 0.1, Tigo

0.15 for Comcel 0.15, for Movistar 0.35, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).

Problem 4. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose that 4 types of soft drinks are obtained in the market: Colombian, Pepsi Cola,

Fanta and Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian there is a probability that they

will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi Cola, 10% that Fanta buys

and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer currently consumes Pepsi Cola there

is a probability that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% buy Colombiana, 20% that Fanta

consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if Fanta is currently consumed, the likelihood of it

continuing to be consumed is 20%, 40% buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and

20% go to Coca Cola. If you currently consume Coca Cola the probability that it will

continue to consume is 50%, 20% buy Colombian, 20% that consumes Pepsi Cola and

10% that is passed to Fanta.

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the following

percentages in market share respectively (30%, 25%, 15% and 30%) during week 3.

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2,

Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you

continue to use the same brand or change it.

BRAND 1 0,18 0,18 0,19 0,15 0,15 0,15

BRAND 2 0,15 0,18 0,15 0,15 0,18 0,19

BRAND 3 0,19 0,17 0,18 0,18 0,15 0,13

BRAND 4 0,16 0,16 0,15 0,19 0,17 0,17

BRAND 5 0,19 0,19 0,17 0,16 0,16 0,13

BRAND 6 0,17 0,2 0,18 0,2 0,15 0,19

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (19%,

18%, 17%, 15%, 19% y 12%) during week 4.

PROPOSED STRATEGY

According to Table 1 by applying the Markovian processes, ie finding the transition matrix

and solving the respective equations of p * q, where p is the transition matrix and q the

vector [W X Y Z]. Answer:

a. What is the transition matrix resulting from proportionality according to the accident

history?

accident rate?

PART 14. Markov Chains (Initial State Multiplication):

According to Tables 2 and 3 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of

the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix).

Answer:

c. Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the next

period.

According to the data of problem 4 and 5 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the

multiplication of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition

matrix). Answer:

e. Find the probability that each user stays with the mark or change to another for

period 4 (problem 4) and period 5 (problem 5).

Step 20. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use

of the WinQSB or the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed

activities, remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income

and results table for the problems raised. In this same space you can carefully review the

Guide for the use of educational resources.

Stage 21. Individually fill out the e-portfolio journal, so that it can verify the recording of

its difficulties and strengths with the activity of the practical environment, recognizing the

contribution for its professional life the use of the algorithms of the course, the which is

in the Evaluation and follow-up environment, to record what is identified in the e-portfolio

in the conclusions of the collaborative work that is found in the Collaborative Learning

environment and thus consolidate the definitive group work.

Step 22. The leader of the group should upload a single PDF file in the Evaluation and

Monitoring Environment, in the designated space called Phase 6. Collaborative Work 3.

Step 23. Individually fill in the Self-Assessment and Co-evaluation survey, which is in the

Evaluation and monitoring environment, this allows identifying the individual and group

strategies used for the development of activities.

Environment

Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring

for the

environment

development

Individual:

None in this activity.

Collaborative:

Group_212066_TC3, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards, with the

following content:

Products to

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the

deliver by

consolidation and generation of collaborative work.

student

Page 2. Introduction.

Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed

theme.

Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the WinQSB

or Solver that performed in the practical learning environment.

Next page. Conclusions with what is stated in the e-portfolio.

Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports

the solution of problems.

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities

for students. In this sense, when working on elements that

require the joint participation of the members of the group,

the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on

Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of

student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and

self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the

approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.

Planning of activities

for the development of

In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught

collaborative work

and learned from problems that have meaning for students,

error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish

and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and

formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The

resources needed to solve the problems are in the Knowledge

Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects

you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to

the individual and collaborative work of the course.

Roles to perform by The students at the beginning of the course, in the space

the student in the destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a

collaborative group collaborative group, they will be able to present their

strengths to the service of the group and they will define the

channels of communication (contact data, institutional and

personal email address, skype , social networking links.) of

which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

responsible action, students must design a work plan based

on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the

evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the

development of each academic activity . They will also design

a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that

responds to the particularities and needs of the learning

strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.

of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning

of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their

learning processes and the presentation of academic products

that meet the expected quality in the course.

this principle materializes when defining the ways and

mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.

The intention is for students to participate in the different

spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the

Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between

them.

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same

scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to

others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those

who do not intervene frequently, offering information search

strategies, proposing technological resources that support

the process being carried out, among others that allow the

team to advance and that each one can strengthen its

formative process.

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each

one assumes actions in the development of the work that

contribute in the achievement of good results of the

equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of

responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the

development of work and the coordination of individual

efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also

important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's

exercise, through the following scenarios:

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)

recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the

development of collaborative work. A score has not been

assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that

allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her

to progress in his / her formative process based on the

difficulties identified during the development of the activities,

their individual participation and their interaction with the

group.

final product of the debate, taking into account that the

contributions of all the participants have been included and

that only the participants who participated in the process are

included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts

to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be

included in the product to be delivered.

submission of work required by the teacher.

Roles and

present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge

responsibility for the

of the alerts so that you inform the other members of the

delivery of products by

team in case any adjustments need to be made on the

students

subject.

send the document in the stipulated times, using the

resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other

partners that the delivery has been made.

new developments and inform the teacher through the work

forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the

document.

Massachusetts, USA: University of Massachusetts Editorial.

Retrieved from:

http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct

=true&db=nlebk&AN=516132&lang=es&site=eds-live

of Analysis: Oxford, UK: Mathematical Institute Editorial.

Retrieved from:

http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://s

earch.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=e000xww

&AN=552478&lang=es&site=ehost-live

Plagiarism policy mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among

others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to

present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,

report, task or document of invention performed by another

person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,

or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them

and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy

for profit, educational resources or results of research

products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the

University”.

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)

without leading to disciplinary measures.

b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of

any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),

without leading to disciplinary measures.

4. Evaluation rubric

Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3

Type of

Individual activity Collaborative activity X

activity

Moment of

Initial Intermediate, unit 3 X Final

Evaluation

Performance Criteria for Individual Activity

Aspects Score

High rating Average rating Low rating

evaluated

The student Participation in the

The student participated in the effective

Individual participated actively forum, but his elaboration of the

student and effectively in the contributions are work is limited, so

8

participation elaboration of the fairly effective in the the achievement of

in the forum requested product. creation of the final the objectives is

product. inadequate.

Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points

Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity

Aspects Score

High rating Average rating Low rating

evaluated

Although the

document presents a

The document basic structure, it

The basic norms for

presents an lacks some elements

the construction of

excellent structure, of the requested

reports are

all the exercises are body or does not

nonexistent like the

Structure of solved according to comply with the

algorithms applied 7

the Report the proposed norms for written

to the themes of

methodology and works. Not all

the theory of

algorithms of the problems are solved

decisions.

theory of decisions. according to the

algorithms of the

course.

Although the

proposed theme is

The objectives of the

treated, the body of

work were

the document does The document

satisfactorily met,

not adequately solve leaves the

Markovian

the situation, the Markovian

Markovian algorithms of

conclusions are not algorithms of

algorithms problem 1 are

relevant according Problem 1 10

(problem 1) correctly solved and

to the results unresolved, so the

the analysis of their

obtained by optimality decisions

results leads to an

Markovian are left unanswered.

optimal decision-

algorithms of

making.

problem 1.

Although the

The objectives of the proposed theme is

work were treated, the body of

The document

satisfactorily met, the document does

leaves the

Markovian not adequately solve

Markovian

Markovian algorithms of the situation, the

algorithms of

algorithms problem 2 and 3 are conclusions are not

Problem 2 and 3 10

(problem 2 - correctly solved and relevant according

unresolved, so that

3) the analysis of their to the results

optimality decisions

results leads to an obtained by

are left unanswered.

optimal decision- Markovian

making. algorithms of

problem 2 and 3.

Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points

Although the

The objectives of proposed theme is

the work were treated, the body of The document

satisfactorily met, the document does leaves the

Markovian not adequately Markovian

Markovian algorithms of solve the situation, algorithms of

algorithms problem 4 and 5 are the conclusions are Problem 4 and 5

(problem 4 - 10

correctly solved and not relevant unresolved, so the

5) the analysis of their according to the optimality decisions

results leads to an results obtained by are left

optimal decision- Markovian unanswered.

making. algorithms of

problem 4 and 5.

Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points

There are no

Writing is excellent,

spelling errors, but The document

ideas are

Writing and the document presents

correlated, and the

spelling presents a medium deficiencies in

body of the text is 8

articulation of the writing and spelling

coherent in its

ideas and structure errors.

entirety.

of paragraphs.

Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points

Although references

are presented in the

The references used

final report, they The use of citations

to solve the

are not adequately and references

problems are

articulated with the proposed in the

adequate, as they

References work, since they do syllabus and the 8

lead to the solution

not lead to the integrated guide to

and analysis of the

solution and activities.

problems proposed.

analysis of the

problems proposed.

Although the use of

The practical

The use of the the practical

environment of the

practical environment in the

course has been no

environment of the final report is

longer explored, for

Use of the course is excellent, evident, the

that reason the

practical the results and the solutions found by

evidence in the use 14

learning analysis of these the application lack

of the application to

environment are shown correctly analysis and

solve the problems

in the final work conclusions

raised has been

presented. pertinent to efficient

limited.

decision making.

Until 14 points Until 7 points Until 0 points

Final score 75

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