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# Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3

## Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Unit
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐
enabled
Number of Credits 3

## Type of the Number of

Individual ☐ Collaborative ☒ 3
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:
75 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity:
Deadline of the activity: Sunday, May 06, 2018
Monday, April 16, 2018

Competence to develop:

## Differentiate the algorithms, their characteristics and application in different risk

environments and/or uncertainty, for the taking of decisions and the optimization of the
expected results.

Topics to develop:

The academic course consists of three (3) academic credits, whose field of training is the
discipline and has a professional nature- elective in the program of industrial engineering
that offer the UNAD; in addition, it is theoretical. After you understand and internalize the
knowledge of the three preliminary courses of operations research (linear programming
methods deterministic, probabilistic methods) and the support in the acquired knowledge
in statistics and probability and Statistical Inference, the student is able to start the course
of decision theory, where it seeks to understand the methods, operations and definitions
on the different techniques of application in the decisions that depend on the type and
quality of the information obtained.

## Phases and stages of the learning strategy to be developed:

Phase 6. Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3, taking into account the
following steps:
Stage 18. Individual activity: Individual review of the activity guide and bibliographical
references required and complementary for the development of the activity.

Group activities:

Stage 19. Discussion and analysis of the problems raised, revision of the algorithms to
be applied and development of the activities proposed in the Collaborative Learning
Environment.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the problems
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all
the participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups
the proposed problems is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be
done according to the contributions presented individually.

Stage 20. Development of practical activities, use of Excel Solver. Review of the guides
in the Practical Learning Environment

Stage 21. Individual e-portfolio solving in the evaluation and monitoring environment.

Stage 22. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.

## Stage 23. Self-assessment and Coevaluation survey.

Activities to develop

## Phase 6. Decisions under a risk environment, Unit 3.

Stage 18. Individual activity: With the reading and analysis of the problem contained in
the integrated guide of activities which is in the Collaborative Learning Environment, the
scenarios are reviewed, preparing to discuss the solution of the problem.

Do not forget to gather the necessary information to learn new concepts, principles and
skills that will help you in the process. In the Collaborative Work forum and in the
discussion topic called Phase 4. Collaborative work 2, start the activity by calling
colleagues, identifying the roles and pointing out the one you will assume.

Stage 19. The team should use the knowledge they already have, the details of the
problems that are proposed and that will be discussed for its subsequent resolution. It
outlines the possible algorithms that will need to solve each of the decision problems
under risk environment. Generate a list of response methods group, then solve them
according to the following indications of the problem:

## Problem 1. Markov chains (steady state):

XYZ insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you
have not had accidents the last two years will be charged for the new policy \$ 1,580,000
(state 0); if you have had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged \$
2,150,000 (State 1); If you had accidents the first of the last two years you will be charged
\$ 1,630,000 (state 2) and if you had an accident the second of the last two years will be
charged \$ 1,550,000 (State 3). The historical behavior of each state is given by the
following cases of accident, taken in four different events.

## Problem 2. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

In Colombia there are 5 main mobile operators such as Tigo, Comcel, Movistar, ETB and
Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each client
has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.

## STATE TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF

TIGO 0,18 0,28 0,19 0,18 0,17
COMCEL 0,21 0,23 0,17 0,25 0,14
MOVISTAR 0,19 0,16 0,23 0,26 0,16
ETB 0,18 0,19 0,23 0,21 0,19
UFF 0,22 0,23 0,19 0,17 0,19

## Table 2. Probabilities of change and permanence in the company of

Telephony (Transition Matrix)

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Tigo 0.25 for
Comcel 0.2, for Movistar 0.3, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).

## Problem 3. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

In Colombia there are 6 main mobile operators such as Avantel, Tigo, Comcel, Movistar,
ETB and Uff, which we will call states. The following chart summarizes the odds that each
client has to stay in their current operator or make a change of company.

## STATE AVANTEL TIGO COMCEL MOVISTAR ETB UFF

AVANTEL 0,19 0,18 0,17 0,15 0,19 0,12
TIGO 0,17 0,15 0,16 0,16 0,18 0,18
COMCEL 0,16 0,19 0,17 0,17 0,16 0,15
MOVISTAR 0,18 0,18 0,19 0,18 0,15 0,12
ETB 0,15 0,16 0,19 0,15 0,18 0,17
UFF 0,15 0,16 0,17 0,19 0,18 0,15

## Table 3. Probabilities of change and permanence in the company of

Telephony (Transition Matrix)

The current percentages of each operator in the current market are for Avantel 0.1, Tigo
0.15 for Comcel 0.15, for Movistar 0.35, for ETB 0.1 and 0.15 for Uff (initial state).
Problem 4. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose that 4 types of soft drinks are obtained in the market: Colombian, Pepsi Cola,
Fanta and Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian there is a probability that they
will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi Cola, 10% that Fanta buys
and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer currently consumes Pepsi Cola there
is a probability that he will continue to buy 30%, 20% buy Colombiana, 20% that Fanta
consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if Fanta is currently consumed, the likelihood of it
continuing to be consumed is 20%, 40% buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and
20% go to Coca Cola. If you currently consume Coca Cola the probability that it will
continue to consume is 50%, 20% buy Colombian, 20% that consumes Pepsi Cola and
10% that is passed to Fanta.

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the following
percentages in market share respectively (30%, 25%, 15% and 30%) during week 3.

## Problem 5. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2,
Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you
continue to use the same brand or change it.

## STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 0,18 0,18 0,19 0,15 0,15 0,15
BRAND 2 0,15 0,18 0,15 0,15 0,18 0,19
BRAND 3 0,19 0,17 0,18 0,18 0,15 0,13
BRAND 4 0,16 0,16 0,15 0,19 0,17 0,17
BRAND 5 0,19 0,19 0,17 0,16 0,16 0,13
BRAND 6 0,17 0,2 0,18 0,2 0,15 0,19

## Table 4. Probabilities of change and permanence in the brand

At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (19%,
18%, 17%, 15%, 19% y 12%) during week 4.

PROPOSED STRATEGY

## PART 13. Markov chains (steady state):

According to Table 1 by applying the Markovian processes, ie finding the transition matrix
and solving the respective equations of p * q, where p is the transition matrix and q the
vector [W X Y Z]. Answer:

a. What is the transition matrix resulting from proportionality according to the accident
history?

## b. What is the average premium paid by a customer in Payoff, according to historical

accident rate?
PART 14. Markov Chains (Initial State Multiplication):

According to Tables 2 and 3 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the multiplication of
the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition matrix).

c. Find the probability that each user stays with the mobile company for the next
period.

## PART 15. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

According to the data of problem 4 and 5 by applying the Markovian criteria, solve the
multiplication of the initial state vector (market share) by the probability matrix (transition

## d. Find the transition matrix.

e. Find the probability that each user stays with the mark or change to another for
period 4 (problem 4) and period 5 (problem 5).

## PART 16. PRACTICAL WORK ENVIRONMENT.

Step 20. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use
of the WinQSB or the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed
activities, remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income
and results table for the problems raised. In this same space you can carefully review the
Guide for the use of educational resources.

## PART 17. USE OF E-PORTFOLIO

Stage 21. Individually fill out the e-portfolio journal, so that it can verify the recording of
its difficulties and strengths with the activity of the practical environment, recognizing the
contribution for its professional life the use of the algorithms of the course, the which is
in the Evaluation and follow-up environment, to record what is identified in the e-portfolio
in the conclusions of the collaborative work that is found in the Collaborative Learning
environment and thus consolidate the definitive group work.

## PART 18. RISE OF COLLABORATIVE WORK

Step 22. The leader of the group should upload a single PDF file in the Evaluation and
Monitoring Environment, in the designated space called Phase 6. Collaborative Work 3.

Step 23. Individually fill in the Self-Assessment and Co-evaluation survey, which is in the
Evaluation and monitoring environment, this allows identifying the individual and group
strategies used for the development of activities.
Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring
for the
environment
development
Individual:
None in this activity.

Collaborative:

## Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working

Group_212066_TC3, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards, with the
following content:
Products to
Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the
deliver by
consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
student
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed
theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the WinQSB
or Solver that performed in the practical learning environment.
Next page. Conclusions with what is stated in the e-portfolio.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports
the solution of problems.

## Distance learning and in virtual learning environments

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities
for students. In this sense, when working on elements that
require the joint participation of the members of the group,
the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on
Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of
student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and
self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the
approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.
Planning of activities
for the development of
In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught
collaborative work
and learned from problems that have meaning for students,
error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish
and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The
resources needed to solve the problems are in the Knowledge
Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects
you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to
the individual and collaborative work of the course.

## Recognition of actors as subjects:

Roles to perform by The students at the beginning of the course, in the space
the student in the destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

## According to the elements that make up the principle of

responsible action, students must design a work plan based
on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the
evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the
development of each academic activity . They will also design
a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that
responds to the particularities and needs of the learning
strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.

## It is important that students internalize each of the principles

of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning
of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their
learning processes and the presentation of academic products
that meet the expected quality in the course.

## Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the student,

this principle materializes when defining the ways and
mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.
The intention is for students to participate in the different
spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the
Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

## Principle of growth. Each student can contribute to the

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same
scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to
others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those
who do not intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that support
the process being carried out, among others that allow the
team to advance and that each one can strengthen its
formative process.

## Principle of Responsible Action. Students should organize

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each
one assumes actions in the development of the work that
contribute in the achievement of good results of the
equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of individual
efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also
important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's
exercise, through the following scenarios:

## Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the process in

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)
recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the
development of collaborative work. A score has not been
assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her
to progress in his / her formative process based on the
difficulties identified during the development of the activities,
their individual participation and their interaction with the
group.

## Compiler: Consolidate the document that constitutes the

final product of the debate, taking into account that the
contributions of all the participants have been included and
that only the participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts
to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be
included in the product to be delivered.

## Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the rules of

submission of work required by the teacher.

## Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the criteria

Roles and
present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge
responsibility for the
of the alerts so that you inform the other members of the
delivery of products by
students
subject.

## Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the products and

send the document in the stipulated times, using the
resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other
partners that the delivery has been made.

## Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are notified of

new developments and inform the teacher through the work
forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the
document.

## Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for Stochastic Modeling:

Massachusetts, USA: University of Massachusetts Editorial.
=true&db=nlebk&AN=516132&lang=es&site=eds-live

## Use of references Dynkin, E. (1982). Markov Processes and Related Problems

of Analysis: Oxford, UK: Mathematical Institute Editorial.
&AN=552478&lang=es&site=ehost-live

## In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the

Plagiarism policy mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among
others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to
present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,
report, task or document of invention performed by another
person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,
or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them
and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy
for profit, educational resources or results of research
products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the
University”.

## a. In case of academic fraud proved in the academic work

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of
any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),
4. Evaluation rubric

## Rubric evaluation format

Phase 6 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 3
Type of
Individual activity Collaborative activity X
activity
Moment of
Initial Intermediate, unit 3 X Final
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student Participation in the
The student participated in the effective
Individual participated actively forum, but his elaboration of the
student and effectively in the contributions are work is limited, so
8
participation elaboration of the fairly effective in the the achievement of
in the forum requested product. creation of the final the objectives is
Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points
Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
document presents a
The document basic structure, it
The basic norms for
presents an lacks some elements
the construction of
excellent structure, of the requested
reports are
all the exercises are body or does not
nonexistent like the
Structure of solved according to comply with the
algorithms applied 7
the Report the proposed norms for written
to the themes of
methodology and works. Not all
the theory of
algorithms of the problems are solved
decisions.
theory of decisions. according to the
algorithms of the
course.

## Until 7 points Until 4 points Until 0 points

Although the
proposed theme is
The objectives of the
treated, the body of
work were
the document does The document
satisfactorily met,
Markovian
the situation, the Markovian
Markovian algorithms of
conclusions are not algorithms of
algorithms problem 1 are
relevant according Problem 1 10
(problem 1) correctly solved and
to the results unresolved, so the
the analysis of their
obtained by optimality decisions
optimal decision-
algorithms of
making.
problem 1.

## Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points

Although the
The objectives of the proposed theme is
work were treated, the body of
The document
satisfactorily met, the document does
leaves the
Markovian
Markovian algorithms of the situation, the
algorithms of
algorithms problem 2 and 3 are conclusions are not
Problem 2 and 3 10
(problem 2 - correctly solved and relevant according
unresolved, so that
3) the analysis of their to the results
optimality decisions
results leads to an obtained by
optimal decision- Markovian
making. algorithms of
problem 2 and 3.
Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points
Although the
The objectives of proposed theme is
the work were treated, the body of The document
satisfactorily met, the document does leaves the
Markovian algorithms of solve the situation, algorithms of
algorithms problem 4 and 5 are the conclusions are Problem 4 and 5
(problem 4 - 10
correctly solved and not relevant unresolved, so the
5) the analysis of their according to the optimality decisions
results leads to an results obtained by are left
making. algorithms of
problem 4 and 5.
Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points
There are no
Writing is excellent,
spelling errors, but The document
ideas are
Writing and the document presents
correlated, and the
spelling presents a medium deficiencies in
body of the text is 8
articulation of the writing and spelling
coherent in its
ideas and structure errors.
entirety.
of paragraphs.
Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points
Although references
are presented in the
The references used
final report, they The use of citations
to solve the
problems are
articulated with the proposed in the
References work, since they do syllabus and the 8
not lead to the integrated guide to
and analysis of the
solution and activities.
problems proposed.
analysis of the
problems proposed.

## Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points

Although the use of
The practical
The use of the the practical
environment of the
practical environment in the
course has been no
environment of the final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the course is excellent, evident, the
that reason the
practical the results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 14
learning analysis of these the application lack
of the application to
environment are shown correctly analysis and
solve the problems
in the final work conclusions
raised has been
presented. pertinent to efficient
limited.
decision making.
Until 14 points Until 7 points Until 0 points
Final score 75