Ventas Históricas (2013 -

Cantidad
Año Mes Vendida
(Toneladas) Precio de Venta
(S//TM)
Ene 15000
Feb 6800
Mar 9000
Abr 22500 Pre
May 14000
12
Jun 8460
2013 10

Precio de Venta ($/Tm)

Jul 7500
Ago 22000 8
Set 15000 6
Oct 29000 4
Nov 24500 2
Dic 13840 0

Mar
Jun
Ene 18500
Feb 15000 2013
Mar 15000
Abr 27000
May 16000
Jun 12450
2014
Jul 9000
Ago 25000
Set 17000
36500
Cantidad V
Oct
Nov 25000 40000
Dic 17500 35000
Ene 25,000.00 30000
Feb 10,000.00 25000
Mar 18,000.00 20000
CANTIDAD Vendida (tm)

Abr 30,000.00 15000

May 21,000.00 10000
Jun 15,000.00 5000
2015
Jul 12,000.00 0
Ago 31,000.00
Jun

Dic
Mar

Set

Set 20,000.00 2013

Oct 35,000.00
Nov 20,000.00
Dic 21,000.00
Ene 14,000.00
Feb 8,000.00
 Mar 22,000.00
Abr 20,000.00
May 10,000.00
Jun 1,000.00
2016
Jul 8,000.00
Ago 25,000.00
Set 11,000.00
Oct 15,000.00
Nov 18,000.00
Dic 17,000.00
Ene 17,500.00
Feb 8,000.00
Mar 10,000.00
Abr 17,000.00
May 12,000.00
Jun 5,000.00
2017
Jul -
Ago -
Set -
Oct -
Nov -
Dic -

Ventas Históricas (2013 - 2017)

0.1 0.2
Cantidad
Vendida Solucion
Precio de Venta Solucion
(Toneladas) Alisado Alisado
Año exp.
exp. Alpha=0,1 Alpha=0,2

2013 15633 25532.5 25532.500 25532.500

2014 19496 26453.3 25532.500 25532.500
2015 21500 31232.67 26361.220 26269.140
2016 14250 24567.87 30745.525 30239.964
2017 5792 15342.23 25185.636 25702.289

PRECIO VARIABLE POR ESTACIONALIDAD

Precio de Venta ($/Tm)[2012-2016]

35000
30000

25000
20000
15000
 Precio de Venta ($/Tm)[2012-2016]
35000
30000
25000

20000
15000

10000
5000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CACAO Ventas Históricas (2012 - 2016)

Cantidad
Vendida Precio de Venta
Año
(Toneladas) ($/Tm)

2012 69 5698.54
2013 87 5678.34
2014 90 5897.78
2015 52 6156.24
2016 35 6356.01

Histórico de Ventas del Cacao

(2012-2016)
100
90
80
Cantdad Vendida (Tn)

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2011.5 2012 2012.5 2013 2013.5 2014 2014.5 2015 2015.5 2016 2016.5
Año

CAMU CAMU Ventas Históricas (2012 - 2016)

 Cantidad
Vendida Precio de Venta
Año
(Toneladas) ($/Tm)

2012 40 20567.75
2013 36 23445.67
2014 45 24993.98
2015 51 25678.23
2016 30 22345.76

CANTIDAD VENDIDA

Histórico de Ventas del Camu Camu (Toneladas) [2012-2016]

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2011.5 2012 2012.5 2013 2013.5 2014 2014.5 2015 2015.5 2016 2016.5
AÑO
Históricas (2013 - 2017)

PRECIO VARIABLE POR ESTACIONALIDAD

Precio de Venta (S//TM)

12
10
Precio de Venta ($/Tm)

8
6
4
2
0
Mar
Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Jun
Jun

Jun

Jun

Jun
Dic

Dic

Dic

Dic
Dic
Set

Set

Set

Set
Set

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Años y Meses

Cantidad Vendida de la Maca(Toneladas)[2012 - 2016]

40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
CANTIDAD Vendida (tm)

15000
10000
5000
0
Jun

Jun

Jun

Jun

Jun
Dic

Dic

Dic

Dic

Dic
Mar

Mar
Mar

Mar

Mar
Set

Set

Set

Set
Set

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

aÑOS Y MESES
 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Solucion Solucion Solucion Solucion

Alisado exp. Solucion Alisado Solucion Alisado Alisado Solucion Alisado exp.
exp. Alisado exp. Alisado exp.
Alpha=0,3 exp. Alpha=0,4 exp. Alpha=0,5 Alpha=0,6 Alpha=0,7 Alpha=0,9
Alpha=0,8

25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500

25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500 25532.500
26177.060 26084.980 25992.900 25900.820 25808.740 25716.660 25624.580
29715.987 29173.594 28612.785 28033.560 27435.919 26819.862 26185.389
26112.305 26410.160 26590.328 26647.284 26575.504 26369.464 26023.637

ABLE POR ESTACIONALIDAD

Histórico de Ventas de la Quinua (2012-2016)

7.55% 20.39%
18.59%

25.43%
28.04%
 Histórico de Ventas de la Quinua (2012-2016)

7.55% 20.39%
18.59%

25.43%
28.04%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Precio de Venta del Cacao

(2012-2016)
6600
6400
Preci o de Venta ($/Tn)

6200
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
6 2016.5 2011.5 2012 2012.5 2013 2013.5 2014 2014.5 2015 2015.5 2016 2016.5
Año
 Precio de Venta del Camu Camu ($/Tm)[2012-2016]
30000

25000

20000
Precio de Venta ($)

15000

10000

5000

0
2011.5 2012 2012.5 2013 2013.5 2014 2014.5 2015 2015.5 2016 2016.5
Año
EMPRESA JAIMITO PLASTICOS

PRONOSTICOS TOTA
CUADRO 1: VENTAS HISTÓRICAS

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1 Ene 13,000.00
2 Feb 7,000.00
3 Mar 11,000.00
4 Abr 23,000.00
5 May 13,000.00
6 Jun 8,000.00
2,013
7 Jul 6,000.00
8 Ago 23,000.00
9 Set 14,000.00
10 Oct 32,000.00
11 Nov 23,000.00
12 Dic 14,000.00
13 Ene 18,000.00
14 Feb 14,000.00
15 Mar 16,000.00
16 Abr 28,000.00
17 May 17,000.00
18 Jun 14,000.00
2,014
19 Jul 10,000.00
20 Ago 28,000.00
21 Set 18,000.00
22 Oct 37,000.00
23 Nov 28,000.00
24 Dic 19,000.00
25 Ene 25,000.00
26 Feb 10,000.00
27 Mar 18,000.00
28 Abr 30,000.00
29 May 21,000.00
30 Jun 15,000.00
2,015
31 Jul 12,000.00
32 Ago 31,000.00
2,015

33 Set 20,000.00
34 Oct 35,000.00
35 Nov 20,000.00
36 Dic 21,000.00
37 Ene 14,000.00
38 Feb 8,000.00
39 Mar 22,000.00
40 Abr 20,000.00
41 May 10,000.00
42 Jun 1,000.00
2,016
43 Jul 8,000.00
44 Ago 25,000.00
45 Set 11,000.00
46 Oct 15,000.00
47 Nov 18,000.00
48 Dic 17,000.00
49 Ene 17,500.00
50 Feb 8,000.00
51 Mar 10,000.00
52 Abr 17,000.00
53 May 12,000.00
54 Jun 5,000.00
2,017
55 Jul -
56 Ago -
57 Set -
58 Oct -
59 Nov -
60 Dic -
CUADRO 2: FACTOR DE ESTACIONALIDAD NORMALIZADO

Factor de
Promedio de
Mes estacionalidad
factores mensuales
normalizado
Ene 1.01 1.12
Feb 0.55 0.61
Mar 0.92 1.02
Abr 1.47 1.62
May 0.97 1.07
Jun 0.55 0.60
Jul 0.40 0.44
Ago 1.20 1.32
Set 0.69 0.76
Oct 1.29 1.43
Nov 1.00 1.11
Dic 0.81 0.90
TOTAL 10.87 12.00

CUADRO 3: DEMANDA DESESTACIONALIZADA

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1 Ene 13,000.00
 2 Feb 7,000.00
3 Mar 11,000.00
4 Abr 23,000.00
5 May 13,000.00
6 Jun 8,000.00
2,013
7 Jul 6,000.00
8 Ago 23,000.00
9 Set 14,000.00
10 Oct 32,000.00
11 Nov 23,000.00
12 Dic 14,000.00
13 Ene 18,000.00
14 Feb 14,000.00
15 Mar 16,000.00
16 Abr 28,000.00
17 May 17,000.00
18 Jun 14,000.00
2,014
19 Jul 10,000.00
20 Ago 28,000.00
21 Set 18,000.00
22 Oct 37,000.00
23 Nov 28,000.00
24 Dic 19,000.00
25 Ene 25,000.00
26 Feb 10,000.00
27 Mar 18,000.00
28 Abr 30,000.00
29 May 21,000.00
30 Jun 15,000.00
2,015
31 Jul 12,000.00
32 Ago 31,000.00
33 Set 20,000.00
34 Oct 35,000.00
35 Nov 20,000.00
36 Dic 21,000.00
37 Ene 14,000.00
38 Feb 8,000.00
39 Mar 22,000.00
40 Abr 20,000.00
41 May 10,000.00
42 Jun 1,000.00
2,016
 2,016
43 Jul 8,000.00
44 Ago 25,000.00
45 Set 11,000.00
46 Oct 15,000.00
47 Nov 18,000.00
48 Dic 17,000.00
37 Ene 17,500.00
38 Feb 8,000.00
39 Mar 10,000.00
40 Abr 17,000.00
41 May 12,000.00
42 Jun 5,000.00
2,017
43 Jul -
44 Ago -
45 Set -
46 Oct -
47 Nov -
48 Dic -

CUADRO 4: ESTABLECIMIENTO DEL NIVEL Y TENDENCIA EMPLEAND

X Y X2 Y2
1 ### 1.00 135,803,877.18
2 ### 4.00 130,565,624.61
3 ### 9.00 116,260,790.38
4 ### 16.00 201,065,116.92
5 ### 25.00 148,564,341.13
6 ### 36.00 176,594,210.39
7 ### 49.00 186,063,730.81
8 ### 64.00 301,575,454.07
9 ### 81.00 335,846,480.31
10 ### 100.00 501,763,872.67
11 ### 121.00 431,819,549.50
12 ### 144.00 243,355,175.12
13 ### 169.00 260,357,729.03
14 ### 196.00 522,262,498.44
15 ### 225.00 245,973,242.45
16 ### 256.00 297,986,865.16
17 ### 289.00 254,053,814.12
18 ### 324.00 540,819,769.33
19 ### 361.00 516,843,696.70
20 ### 400.00 446,947,364.82
21 ### 441.00 555,174,793.98
22 ### 484.00 670,815,177.43
23 ### 529.00 639,974,530.83
24 ### 576.00 448,220,501.12
25 ### 625.00 502,233,273.60
26 ### 676.00 266,460,458.39
27 ### 729.00 311,309,884.98
28 ### 784.00 342,076,758.47
29 ### 841.00 387,673,813.24
30 ### 900.00 620,839,020.91
31 ### 961.00 744,254,923.24
32 ### 1,024.00 547,852,573.45
33 ### 1,089.00 685,400,980.22
34 ### 1,156.00 600,254,632.83
35 ### 1,225.00 326,517,617.77
36 ### 1,296.00 547,549,144.03
37 ### 1,369.00 157,500,354.60
38 ### 1,444.00 170,534,693.37
39 ### 1,521.00 465,043,161.51
40 ### 1,600.00 152,034,114.88
41 ### 1,681.00 87,907,894.16
42 ### 1,764.00 2,759,284.54
43 ### 1,849.00 330,779,965.89
44 ### 1,936.00 356,303,702.82
45 ### 2,025.00 207,333,796.52
46 ### 2,116.00 110,250,850.93
47 ### 2,209.00 264,479,270.39
48 ### 2,304.00 358,824,722.50
49 ### 2,401.00 246,094,304.06
50 ### 2,500.00 170,534,693.37
51 ### 2,601.00 96,083,297.83
52 ### 2,704.00 109,844,648.00
53 ### 2,809.00 126,587,367.59
54 ### 2,916.00 68,982,113.43
55 - 3,025.00 -
56 - 3,136.00 -
 57 - 3,249.00 -
58 - 3,364.00 -
59 - 3,481.00 -
60 - 3,600.00 -
1,830 ### ### 17,673,009,524.02
ONOSTICOS TOTALES

Factor de
Promedio
Promedio Móvil estacionalidad
Móvil centrado
incial
16,041.67 0.81
16,041.67 0.44
16,041.67 0.69
16,041.67 1.43
16,041.67 0.81
15,583.33 16,041.67 0.50
16,000.00 15,583.33 15,791.67 0.38
16,583.33 16,000.00 16,291.67 1.41
17,000.00 16,583.33 16,791.67 0.83
17,416.67 17,000.00 17,208.33 1.86
17,750.00 17,416.67 17,583.33 1.31
18,250.00 17,750.00 18,000.00 0.78
18,583.33 18,250.00 18,416.67 0.98
19,000.00 18,583.33 18,791.67 0.75
19,333.33 19,000.00 19,166.67 0.83
19,750.00 19,333.33 19,541.67 1.43
20,166.67 19,750.00 19,958.33 0.85
20,583.33 20,166.67 20,375.00 0.69
21,166.67 20,583.33 20,875.00 0.48
20,833.33 21,166.67 21,000.00 1.33
21,000.00 20,833.33 20,916.67 0.86
21,166.67 21,000.00 21,083.33 1.75
21,500.00 21,166.67 21,333.33 1.31
21,583.33 21,500.00 21,541.67 0.88
21,750.00 21,583.33 21,666.67 1.15
22,000.00 21,750.00 21,875.00 0.46
22,166.67 22,000.00 22,083.33 0.82
22,000.00 22,166.67 22,083.33 1.36
21,333.33 22,000.00 21,666.67 0.97
21,500.00 21,333.33 21,416.67 0.70
20,583.33 21,500.00 21,041.67 0.57
20,416.67 20,583.33 20,500.00 1.51
20,750.00 20,416.67 20,583.33 0.97
19,916.67 20,750.00 20,333.33 1.72
19,000.00 19,916.67 19,458.33 1.03
17,833.33 19,000.00 18,416.67 1.14
17,500.00 17,833.33 17,666.67 0.79
17,000.00 17,500.00 17,250.00 0.46
16,250.00 17,000.00 16,625.00 1.32
14,583.33 16,250.00 15,416.67 1.30
14,416.67 14,583.33 14,500.00 0.69
14,083.33 14,416.67 14,250.00 0.07
14,375.00 14,083.33 14,229.17 0.56
14,375.00 14,375.00 14,375.00 1.74
13,375.00 14,375.00 13,875.00 0.79
13,125.00 13,375.00 13,250.00 1.13
13,291.67 13,125.00 13,208.33 1.36
13,625.00 13,291.67 13,458.33 1.26
12,958.33 13,625.00 13,291.67 1.32
10,875.00 12,958.33 11,916.67 0.67
9,958.33 10,875.00 10,416.67 0.96
8,708.33 9,958.33 9,333.33 1.82
7,208.33 8,708.33 7,958.33 1.51
5,791.67 7,208.33 6,500.00 0.77
5,791.67 7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
DAD NORMALIZADO

LIZADA

Factor de estacionalidad Nivel-demanda

normalizado (St) desestacionalizada

1.12 11,653.49
0.61 11,426.53
1.02 10,782.43
1.62 14,179.74
1.07 12,188.70
0.60 13,288.88
0.44 13,640.52
1.32 17,365.93
0.76 18,326.11
1.43 22,400.09
1.11 20,780.27
0.90 15,599.85
1.12 16,135.60
0.61 22,853.06
1.02 15,683.53
1.62 17,262.30
1.07 15,939.07
0.60 23,255.53
0.44 22,734.20
1.32 21,141.13
0.76 23,562.15
1.43 25,900.10
1.11 25,297.72
0.90 21,171.22
1.12 22,410.56
0.61 16,323.62
1.02 17,643.98
1.62 18,495.32
1.07 19,689.43
0.60 24,916.64
0.44 27,281.04
1.32 23,406.25
0.76 26,180.16
1.43 24,500.09
1.11 18,069.80
0.90 23,399.77
1.12 12,549.91
0.61 13,058.89
1.02 21,564.86
1.62 12,330.21
1.07 9,375.92
0.60 1,661.11
 0.44 18,187.36
1.32 18,876.01
0.76 14,399.09
1.43 10,500.04
1.11 16,262.82
0.90 18,942.67
1.12 15,687.39
0.61 13,058.89
1.02 9,802.21
1.62 10,480.68
1.07 11,251.11
0.60 8,305.55
0.44 -
1.32 -
0.76 -
1.43 -
1.11 -
0.90 -

VEL Y TENDENCIA EMPLEANDO MÍNIMOS CUADRADOS 2012-2015

X.Y
11,653.49
22,853.06
32,347.29
56,718.97
60,943.49
79,733.25
95,483.63
138,927.42
164,935.03
224,000.86
228,582.95
187,198.14
209,762.86
319,942.89
235,253.01
276,196.74
270,964.12
418,599.58
431,949.74
422,822.59
494,805.10
569,802.20
581,847.51
508,109.25
560,264.04
424,414.03
476,387.35
517,868.88
570,993.59
747,499.24
845,712.11
749,000.02
863,945.41
833,003.21
632,442.95
842,391.65
464,346.84
496,237.94
841,029.52
493,208.46
384,412.76
69,766.60
782,056.36
830,544.38
647,959.06
483,001.86
764,352.48
909,248.13
768,682.26
652,944.66
499,912.65
544,995.35
596,308.57
448,499.55
-
-
 -
-
-
-
24,784,863.09
 PRONO

CUADRO 1: VENTAS HISTÓRICAS

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1 Ene 7,050.00
2 Feb 2,924.00
3 Mar 5,310.00
4 Abr 9,450.00
5 May 9,940.00
6 Jun 3,976.20
2013
7 Jul 3,750.00
8 Ago 14,520.00
9 Set 7,200.00
10 Oct 16,240.00
11 Nov 16,660.00
12 Dic 6,366.40
13 Ene 8,695.00
14 Feb 6,450.00
15 Mar 8,850.00
16 Abr 11,340.00
17 May 11,360.00
18 Jun 5,851.50
2014
19 Jul 4,500.00
20 Ago 16,500.00
21 Set 8,160.00
22 Oct 20,440.00
23 Nov 17,000.00
24 Dic 8,050.00
25 Ene 11,750.00
26 Feb 4,300.00
27 Mar 10,620.00
28 Abr 12,600.00
29 May 14,910.00
30 Jun 7,050.00
2015
31 Jul 6,000.00
32 Ago 20,460.00
2015

33 Set 9,600.00
34 Oct 19,600.00
35 Nov 13,600.00
36 Dic 9,660.00
37 Ene 6,580.00
38 Feb 3,440.00
39 Mar 12,980.00
40 Abr 8,400.00
41 May 7,100.00
42 Jun 470.00
2016
43 Jul 4,000.00
44 Ago 16,500.00
45 Set 5,280.00
46 Oct 8,400.00
47 Nov 12,240.00
48 Dic 11,500.00
49 Ene 8,225.00
50 Feb 3,440.00
51 Mar 5,900.00
52 Abr 7,140.00
53 May 8,520.00
54 Jun 2,350.00
2017
55 Jul -
56 Ago -
57 Set -
58 Oct -
59 Nov -
60 Dic -
CUADRO 2: FACTOR DE ESTACIONALIDAD NORMALIZADO PA

Factor de
Promedio de factores
Mes estacionalidad
mensuales
normalizado
Ene 0.82 0.91
Feb 0.41 0.46
Mar 0.91 1.00
Abr 1.02 1.13
May 1.16 1.28
Jun 0.43 0.48
Jul 0.37 0.41
Ago 1.40 1.55
Set 0.61 0.68
Oct 1.29 1.43
Nov 1.23 1.36
Dic 0.76 0.84
TOTAL 10.43 11.51

CUADRO 3: DEMANDA DESESTACIONALIZADA PARA MICAS

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1 Ene 7,050.00
 2 Feb 2,924.00
3 Mar 5,310.00
4 Abr 9,450.00
5 May 9,940.00
6 Jun 3,976.20
2013
7 Jul 3,750.00
8 Ago 14,520.00
9 Set 7,200.00
10 Oct 16,240.00
11 Nov 16,660.00
12 Dic 6,366.40
13 Ene 8,695.00
14 Feb 6,450.00
15 Mar 8,850.00
16 Abr 11,340.00
17 May 11,360.00
18 Jun 5,851.50
2014
19 Jul 4,500.00
20 Ago 16,500.00
21 Set 8,160.00
22 Oct 20,440.00
23 Nov 17,000.00
24 Dic 8,050.00
25 Ene 11,750.00
26 Feb 4,300.00
27 Mar 10,620.00
28 Abr 12,600.00
29 May 14,910.00
30 Jun 7,050.00
2015
31 Jul 6,000.00
32 Ago 20,460.00
33 Set 9,600.00
34 Oct 19,600.00
35 Nov 13,600.00
36 Dic 9,660.00
37 Ene 6,580.00
38 Feb 3,440.00
39 Mar 12,980.00
40 Abr 8,400.00
41 May 7,100.00
42 Jun 470.00
2016
 2016
43 Jul 4,000.00
44 Ago 16,500.00
45 Set 5,280.00
46 Oct 8,400.00
47 Nov 12,240.00
48 Dic 11,500.00
37 Ene 8,225.00
38 Feb 3,440.00
39 Mar 5,900.00
40 Abr 7,140.00
41 May 8,520.00
42 Jun 2,350.00
2017
43 Jul -
44 Ago -
45 Set -
46 Oct -
47 Nov -
48 Dic -

CUADRO 4: ESTABLECIMIENTO DEL NIVEL Y TENDENCIA EMP

X Y X2 Y2
1 6,319.78 1.00 39,939,598.85
2 4,773.03 4.00 22,781,772.32
3 5,204.97 9.00 27,091,742.74
4 5,826.02 16.00 33,942,566.36
5 9,319.67 25.00 86,856,164.11
6 6,604.90 36.00 43,624,747.79
7 8,525.32 49.00 72,681,144.85
8 10,963.19 64.00 120,191,443.50
9 9,424.86 81.00 88,827,967.04
10 11,368.04 100.00 129,232,421.43
11 15,052.14 121.00 226,566,983.28
12 7,093.92 144.00 50,323,676.11
13 7,794.39 169.00 60,752,567.58
14 10,528.73 196.00 110,854,212.20
15 8,674.95 225.00 75,254,840.95
16 6,991.23 256.00 48,877,295.56
17 10,651.05 289.00 113,444,785.78
18 9,719.98 324.00 94,478,046.73
19 10,230.39 361.00 104,660,848.58
20 12,458.17 400.00 155,205,892.95
21 10,681.51 441.00 114,094,588.77
22 14,308.06 484.00 204,720,444.06
23 15,359.33 529.00 235,908,978.84
24 8,969.91 576.00 80,459,304.78
25 10,532.96 625.00 110,943,330.14
26 7,019.16 676.00 49,268,538.76
27 10,409.95 729.00 108,366,970.96
28 7,768.03 784.00 60,342,340.19
29 13,979.50 841.00 195,426,369.26
30 11,710.82 900.00 137,143,339.72
31 13,640.52 961.00 186,063,730.81
32 15,448.13 1,024.00 238,644,581.00
33 12,566.48 1,089.00 157,916,385.84
34 13,720.05 1,156.00 188,239,852.86
35 12,287.46 1,225.00 150,981,746.46
36 10,763.89 1,296.00 115,861,398.88
37 5,898.46 1,369.00 34,791,828.33
38 5,615.32 1,444.00 31,531,864.80
39 12,723.27 1,521.00 161,881,524.52
40 5,178.69 1,600.00 26,818,817.86
41 6,656.90 1,681.00 44,314,369.45
42 780.72 1,764.00 609,525.95
43 9,093.68 1,849.00 82,694,991.47
44 12,458.17 1,936.00 155,205,892.95
45 6,911.56 2,025.00 47,769,706.72
46 5,880.02 2,116.00 34,574,666.85
47 11,058.72 2,209.00 122,295,214.63
48 12,814.16 2,304.00 164,202,662.81
49 7,373.07 2,401.00 54,362,231.77
50 5,615.32 2,500.00 31,531,864.80
51 5,783.30 2,601.00 33,446,595.98
52 4,401.89 2,704.00 19,376,595.91
53 7,988.28 2,809.00 63,812,692.00
54 3,903.61 2,916.00 15,238,148.86
55 - 3,025.00 -
56 - 3,136.00 -
 57 - 3,249.00 -
58 - 3,364.00 -
59 - 3,481.00 -
60 - 3,600.00 -
1830 ### ### 5,164,429,815.67
PRONOSTICO DE MICAS

Factor de
Promedio
Promedio Móvil estacionalidad
Móvil centrado
incial
16,041.67 0.44
16,041.67 0.18
16,041.67 0.33
16,041.67 0.59
16,041.67 0.62
8,615.55 16,041.67 0.25
8,752.63 8,615.55 8,684.09 0.43
9,046.47 8,752.63 8,899.55 1.63
9,341.47 9,046.47 9,193.97 0.78
9,498.97 9,341.47 9,420.22 1.72
9,617.30 9,498.97 9,558.13 1.74
9,773.58 9,617.30 9,695.44 0.66
9,836.08 9,773.58 9,804.83 0.89
10,001.08 9,836.08 9,918.58 0.65
10,081.08 10,001.08 10,041.08 0.88
10,431.08 10,081.08 10,256.08 1.11
10,459.41 10,431.08 10,445.24 1.09
10,599.71 10,459.41 10,529.56 0.56
10,854.29 10,599.71 10,727.00 0.42
10,675.13 10,854.29 10,764.71 1.53
10,822.63 10,675.13 10,748.88 0.76
10,927.63 10,822.63 10,875.13 1.88
11,223.46 10,927.63 11,075.54 1.53
11,323.33 11,223.46 11,273.40 0.71
11,448.33 11,323.33 11,385.83 1.03
11,778.33 11,448.33 11,613.33 0.37
11,898.33 11,778.33 11,838.33 0.90
11,828.33 11,898.33 11,863.33 1.06
11,545.00 11,828.33 11,686.67 1.28
11,679.17 11,545.00 11,612.08 0.61
11,248.33 11,679.17 11,463.75 0.52
11,176.67 11,248.33 11,212.50 1.82
11,373.33 11,176.67 11,275.00 0.85
11,023.33 11,373.33 11,198.33 1.75
10,372.50 11,023.33 10,697.92 1.27
9,824.17 10,372.50 10,098.33 0.96
9,657.50 9,824.17 9,740.83 0.68
9,327.50 9,657.50 9,492.50 0.36
8,967.50 9,327.50 9,147.50 1.42
8,034.17 8,967.50 8,500.83 0.99
7,920.83 8,034.17 7,977.50 0.89
8,074.17 7,920.83 7,997.50 0.06
8,211.25 8,074.17 8,142.71 0.49
8,211.25 8,211.25 8,211.25 2.01
7,621.25 8,211.25 7,916.25 0.67
7,516.25 7,621.25 7,568.75 1.11
7,634.58 7,516.25 7,575.42 1.62
7,791.25 7,634.58 7,712.92 1.49
7,457.92 7,791.25 7,624.58 1.08
6,082.92 7,457.92 6,770.42 0.51
5,642.92 6,082.92 5,862.92 1.01
4,942.92 5,642.92 5,292.92 1.35
3,922.92 4,942.92 4,432.92 1.92
2,964.58 3,922.92 3,443.75 0.68
2,964.58 7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
ORMALIZADO PARA MICAS

DA PARA MICAS

Factor de estacionalidad Nivel-demanda

normalizado (St) desestacionalizada

1.12 6,319.78
0.61 4,773.03
1.02 5,204.97
1.62 5,826.02
1.07 9,319.67
0.60 6,604.90
0.44 8,525.32
1.32 10,963.19
0.76 9,424.86
1.43 11,368.04
1.11 15,052.14
0.90 7,093.92
1.12 7,794.39
0.61 10,528.73
1.02 8,674.95
1.62 6,991.23
1.07 10,651.05
0.60 9,719.98
0.44 10,230.39
1.32 12,458.17
0.76 10,681.51
1.43 14,308.06
1.11 15,359.33
0.90 8,969.91
1.12 10,532.96
0.61 7,019.16
1.02 10,409.95
1.62 7,768.03
1.07 13,979.50
0.60 11,710.82
0.44 13,640.52
1.32 15,448.13
0.76 12,566.48
1.43 13,720.05
1.11 12,287.46
0.90 10,763.89
1.12 5,898.46
0.61 5,615.32
1.02 12,723.27
1.62 5,178.69
1.07 6,656.90
0.60 780.72
 0.44 9,093.68
1.32 12,458.17
0.76 6,911.56
1.43 5,880.02
1.11 11,058.72
0.90 12,814.16
1.12 7,373.07
0.61 5,615.32
1.02 5,783.30
1.62 4,401.89
1.07 7,988.28
0.60 3,903.61
0.44 -
1.32 -
0.76 -
1.43 -
1.11 -
0.90 -

TENDENCIA EMPLEANDO MÍNIMOS CUADRADOS 2012-2015

X.Y
6,319.78
9,546.05
15,614.92
23,304.10
46,598.33
39,629.42
59,677.27
87,705.49
84,823.73
113,680.44
165,573.56
85,127.02
101,327.11
147,402.26
130,124.32
111,859.68
181,067.79
174,959.67
194,377.38
249,163.31
224,311.64
314,777.21
353,264.56
215,277.87
263,324.10
182,498.03
281,068.54
217,504.93
405,405.45
351,324.64
422,856.06
494,340.02
414,693.80
466,481.80
430,061.20
387,500.16
218,243.01
213,382.32
496,207.42
207,147.55
272,933.06
32,790.30
391,028.18
548,159.29
311,020.35
270,481.04
519,759.68
615,079.62
361,280.66
280,766.21
294,948.46
228,898.05
423,379.09
210,794.79
-
-
 -
-
-
-
13,348,870.71
 PRONOSTICO D

CUADRO 1:

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1 Ene 5,100.00
2 Feb 2,108.00
3 Mar 1,710.00
4 Abr 13,050.00
5 May 4,060.00
6 Jun 4,483.80
2013
7 Jul 3,750.00
8 Ago 7,480.00
9 Set 7,800.00
10 Oct 12,760.00
11 Nov 7,840.00
12 Dic 7,473.60
13 Ene 6,290
14 Feb 4650
15 Mar 2850
16 Abr 15660
17 May 4640
18 Jun 6598.5
2014
19 Jul 4500
20 Ago 8500
21 Set 8840
22 Oct 16060
23 Nov 8000
24 Dic 9450
25 Ene 8,500.00
26 Feb 3,100.00
27 Mar 3,420.00
28 Abr 17,400.00
29 May 6,090.00
30 Jun 7,950.00
2015
31 Jul 6,000.00
32 Ago 10,540.00
2015

33 Set 10,400.00
34 Oct 15,400.00
35 Nov 6,400.00
36 Dic 11,340.00
37 Ene 4,760.00
38 Feb 2,480.00
39 Mar 4,180.00
40 Abr 11,600.00
41 May 2,900.00
42 Jun 530.00
2016
43 Jul 4,000.00
44 Ago 8,500.00
45 Set 5,720.00
46 Oct 6,600.00
47 Nov 5,760.00
48 Dic 9,180.00
49 Ene 5,950.00
50 Feb 2,480.00
51 Mar 1,900.00
52 Abr 9,860.00
53 May 3,480.00
54 Jun 2,650.00
2017
55 Jul -
56 Ago -
57 Set -
58 Oct -
59 Nov -
60 Dic -
 CUADRO 2: FACTOR DE ESTACIONALID

Factor de
Promedio de factores
Mes estacionalidad
mensuales
normalizado
Ene 0.79 0.87
Feb 0.40 0.44
Mar 0.39 0.43
Abr 1.87 2.07
May 0.63 0.69
Jun 0.63 0.69
Jul 0.51 0.56
Ago 0.98 1.09
Set 0.90 0.99
Oct 1.37 1.52
Nov 0.79 0.87
Dic 1.07 1.18
TOTAL 10.33 11.41

CUADRO 3: DEMANDA DESESTA

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1 Ene 5,100.00
 2 Feb 2,108.00
3 Mar 1,710.00
4 Abr 13,050.00
5 May 4,060.00
6 Jun 4,483.80
2013
7 Jul 3,750.00
8 Ago 7,480.00
9 Set 7,800.00
10 Oct 12,760.00
11 Nov 7,840.00
12 Dic 7,473.60
13 Ene 6290
14 Feb 4650
15 Mar 2850
16 Abr 15660
17 May 4640
18 Jun 6598.5
2014
19 Jul 4500
20 Ago 8500
21 Set 8840
22 Oct 16060
23 Nov 8000
24 Dic 9450
25 Ene 8,500.00
26 Feb 3,100.00
27 Mar 3,420.00
28 Abr 17,400.00
29 May 6,090.00
30 Jun 7,950.00
2015
31 Jul 6,000.00
32 Ago 10,540.00
33 Set 10,400.00
34 Oct 15,400.00
35 Nov 6,400.00
36 Dic 11,340.00
37 Ene 4,760.00
38 Feb 2,480.00
39 Mar 4,180.00
40 Abr 11,600.00
41 May 2,900.00
42 Jun 530.00
2016
2016
43 Jul 4,000.00
44 Ago 8,500.00
45 Set 5,720.00
46 Oct 6,600.00
47 Nov 5,760.00
48 Dic 9,180.00
37 Ene 5,950.00
38 Feb 2,480.00
39 Mar 1,900.00
40 Abr 9,860.00
41 May 3,480.00
42 Jun 2,650.00
2017
43 Jul -
44 Ago -
45 Set -
46 Oct -
47 Nov -
48 Dic -

CUADRO 4: ESTABLECIMIENTO DEL NIVEL Y TEN

X Y X2 Y2
1 4,572 1.00 20,900,939.91
2 3,441 4.00 11,840,607.46
3 1,676 9.00 2,809,571.71
4 8,045 16.00 64,729,474.62
5 3,807 25.00 14,490,385.64
6 7,448 36.00 55,473,932.34
7 8,525 49.00 72,681,144.85
8 5,648 64.00 31,896,535.51
9 10,210 81.00 104,249,489.09
10 8,932 100.00 79,781,239.76
11 7,083 121.00 50,174,003.22
12 8,328 144.00 69,349,640.61
13 5,638 169.00 31,792,651.94
14 7,590 196.00 57,615,412.61
15 2,794 225.00 7,804,365.87
16 9,655 256.00 93,210,443.46
17 4,350 289.00 18,926,217.98
18 10,961 324.00 120,139,806.82
19 10,230 361.00 104,660,848.58
20 6,418 400.00 41,188,708.05
21 11,572 441.00 133,902,677.10
22 11,242 484.00 126,383,539.44
23 7,228 529.00 52,242,818.84
24 10,530 576.00 110,878,701.67
25 7,620 625.00 58,058,166.43
26 5,060 676.00 25,606,850.05
27 3,352 729.00 11,238,286.85
28 10,727 784.00 115,074,621.55
29 5,710 841.00 32,603,367.69
30 13,206 900.00 174,393,680.97
31 13,641 961.00 186,063,730.81
32 7,958 1,024.00 63,331,757.49
33 13,614 1,089.00 185,332,425.05
34 10,780 1,156.00 116,209,296.92
35 5,782 1,225.00 33,435,404.06
36 12,636 1,296.00 159,665,330.40
37 4,267 1,369.00 18,207,040.99
38 4,048 1,444.00 16,388,384.03
39 4,097 1,521.00 16,788,058.13
40 7,152 1,600.00 51,144,276.24
41 2,719 1,681.00 7,393,053.90
42 880 1,764.00 775,083.03
43 9,094 1,849.00 82,694,991.47
44 6,418 1,936.00 41,188,708.05
45 7,488 2,025.00 56,063,058.58
46 4,620 2,116.00 21,344,564.74
47 5,204 2,209.00 27,082,677.29
48 10,229 2,304.00 104,633,289.08
49 5,334 2,401.00 28,448,501.55
50 4,048 2,500.00 16,388,384.03
51 1,862 2,601.00 3,468,607.05
52 6,079 2,704.00 36,951,739.59
53 3,263 2,809.00 10,645,997.61
54 4,402 2,916.00 19,377,075.66
55 - 3,025.00 -
56 - 3,136.00 -
 57 - 3,249.00 -
58 - 3,364.00 -
59 - 3,481.00 -
60 - 3,600.00 -
1830 377,213 ### 3,197,119,566.39
PRONOSTICO DE PORTADOCUMENTOS

CUADRO 1: VENTAS HISTÓRICAS

Factor de
Promedio Móvil
Promedio Móvil estacionalida
centrado
d incial
16,041.67 0.32
16,041.67 0.13
16,041.67 0.11
16,041.67 0.81
16,041.67 0.25
6,467.95 16,041.67 0.28
6,567.12 6,467.95 6,517.53 0.58
6,778.95 6,567.12 6,673.03 1.12
6,873.95 6,778.95 6,826.45 1.14
7,091.45 6,873.95 6,982.70 1.83
7,139.78 7,091.45 7,115.62 1.10
7,316.01 7,139.78 7,227.90 1.03
7,378.51 7,316.01 7,347.26 0.86
7,463.51 7,378.51 7,421.01 0.63
7,550.18 7,463.51 7,506.84 0.38
7,825.18 7,550.18 7,687.68 2.04
7,838.51 7,825.18 7,831.84 0.59
8,003.21 7,838.51 7,920.86 0.83
8,187.38 8,003.21 8,095.29 0.56
8,058.21 8,187.38 8,122.79 1.05
8,105.71 8,058.21 8,081.96 1.09
8,250.71 8,105.71 8,178.21 1.96
8,371.54 8,250.71 8,311.13 0.96
8,484.17 8,371.54 8,427.85 1.12
8,609.17 8,484.17 8,546.67 0.99
8,779.17 8,609.17 8,694.17 0.36
8,909.17 8,779.17 8,844.17 0.39
8,854.17 8,909.17 8,881.67 1.96
8,720.83 8,854.17 8,787.50 0.69
8,878.33 8,720.83 8,799.58 0.90
8,566.67 8,878.33 8,722.50 0.69
8,515.00 8,566.67 8,540.83 1.23
8,578.33 8,515.00 8,546.67 1.22
8,095.00 8,578.33 8,336.67 1.85
7,829.17 8,095.00 7,962.08 0.80
7,210.83 7,829.17 7,520.00 1.51
7,044.17 7,210.83 7,127.50 0.67
6,874.17 7,044.17 6,959.17 0.36
6,484.17 6,874.17 6,679.17 0.63
5,750.83 6,484.17 6,117.50 1.90
5,697.50 5,750.83 5,724.17 0.51
5,517.50 5,697.50 5,607.50 0.09
5,616.67 5,517.50 5,567.08 0.72
5,616.67 5,616.67 5,616.67 1.51
5,426.67 5,616.67 5,521.67 1.04
5,281.67 5,426.67 5,354.17 1.23
5,330.00 5,281.67 5,305.83 1.09
5,506.67 5,330.00 5,418.33 1.69
5,173.33 5,506.67 5,340.00 1.11
4,465.00 5,173.33 4,819.17 0.51
3,988.33 4,465.00 4,226.67 0.45
3,438.33 3,988.33 3,713.33 2.66
2,958.33 3,438.33 3,198.33 1.09
2,193.33 2,958.33 2,575.83 1.03
2,193.33 7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
DE ESTACIONALIDAD NORMALIZADO PARA PORTADOCUMENTOS

MANDA DESESTACIONALIZADA PARA PORTADOCUMENTOS

Factor de estacionalidad Nivel-demanda

normalizado (St) desestacionaliza
da
1.12 4,571.75
0.61 3,441.02
1.02 1,676.18
1.62 8,045.46
1.07 3,806.62
0.60 7,448.08
0.44 8,525.32
1.32 5,647.70
0.76 10,210.26
1.43 8,932.03
1.11 7,083.36
0.90 8,327.64
1.12 5,638.50
0.61 7,590.48
1.02 2,793.63
1.62 9,654.56
1.07 4,350.43
0.60 10,960.83
0.44 10,230.39
1.32 6,417.84
0.76 11,571.63
1.43 11,242.04
1.11 7,227.92
0.90 10,529.90
1.12 7,619.59
0.61 5,060.32
1.02 3,352.36
1.62 10,727.28
1.07 5,709.94
0.60 13,205.82
0.44 13,640.52
1.32 7,958.13
0.76 13,613.69
1.43 10,780.04
1.11 5,782.34
0.90 12,635.87
1.12 4,266.97
0.61 4,048.26
1.02 4,097.32
1.62 7,151.52
1.07 2,719.02
0.60 880.39
 0.44 9,093.68
1.32 6,417.84
0.76 7,487.53
1.43 4,620.02
1.11 5,204.10
0.90 10,229.04
1.12 5,333.71
0.61 4,048.26
1.02 1,862.42
1.62 6,078.79
1.07 3,262.82
0.60 4,401.94
0.44 -
1.32 -
0.76 -
1.43 -
1.11 -
0.90 -

DEL NIVEL Y TENDENCIA EMPLEANDO MÍNIMOS CUADRADOS 2012-2015

X.Y
4,571.75
6,882.04
5,028.53
32,181.85
19,033.12
44,688.49
59,677.27
45,181.61
91,892.38
89,320.34
77,916.97
99,931.72
73,300.47
106,266.74
41,904.44
154,472.89
73,957.26
197,294.95
194,377.38
128,356.86
243,004.28
247,324.95
166,242.15
252,717.49
190,489.77
131,568.35
90,513.60
300,363.95
165,588.14
396,174.60
422,856.06
254,660.01
449,251.61
366,521.41
202,381.74
454,891.49
157,877.92
153,833.76
159,795.61
286,060.91
111,479.70
36,976.30
391,028.18
282,385.09
336,938.71
212,520.82
244,592.79
490,993.99
261,351.97
202,412.85
94,983.40
316,097.30
172,929.49
237,704.76
-
-
 -
-
-
-
10,030,750.24
 PRONOS

CUADRO 1: VENTAS HISTÓRICAS

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1.00 Ene 3,150.00

2.00 Feb 1,632.00
3.00 Mar 2,520.00
4.00 Abr -
5.00 May -
6.00 Jun -
###
7.00 Jul -
8.00 Ago -
9.00 Set -
10.00 Oct -
11.00 Nov -
12.00 Dic -
13.00 Ene 3,885.00
14.00 Feb 3,600.00
15.00 Mar 4,200.00
16.00 Abr -
17.00 May -
18.00 Jun -
###
19.00 Jul -
20.00 Ago -
21.00 Set -
22.00 Oct -
23.00 Nov -
24.00 Dic -
25.00 Ene 5,250.00
26.00 Feb 2,400.00
27.00 Mar 5,040.00
28.00 Abr -
29.00 May -
30.00 Jun -
###
31.00 Jul -
32.00 Ago -
###

33.00 Set -
34.00 Oct -
35.00 Nov -
36.00 Dic -
37.00 Ene 2,940.00
38.00 Feb 1,920.00
39.00 Mar 6,160.00
40.00 Abr -
41.00 May -
42.00 Jun -
###
43.00 Jul -
44.00 Ago -
45.00 Set -
46.00 Oct -
47.00 Nov -
48.00 Dic -
49.00 Ene 3,675.00
50.00 Feb 1,920.00
51.00 Mar 2,800.00
52.00 Abr -
53.00 May -
54.00 Jun -
###
55.00 Jul -
56.00 Ago -
57.00 Set -
58.00 Oct -
59.00 Nov -
60.00 Dic -
CUADRO 2: FACTOR DE ESTACIONALIDAD NORMALIZADO PA

Factor de
Promedio de factores
Mes estacionalidad
mensuales
normalizado
Ene 3.52 3.89
Feb 2.18 2.41
Mar 3.99 4.41
Abr - -
May - -
Jun - -
Jul - -
Ago - -
Set - -
Oct - -
Nov - -
Dic - -
TOTAL 9.69 10.70

CUADRO 3: DEMANDA DESESTACIONALIZADA PARA FOLDER

Ventas Datos
Año Mes
Históricos

1 Ene 37.60
 2 Feb 22.56
3 Mar 12.53
4 Abr 6.27
5 May 1.25
6 Jun 2.01
2,013
7 Jul 2.51
8 Ago 25.07
9 Set 22.56
10 Oct 30.58
11 Nov 40.11
12 Dic 47.63
13 Ene 49.56
14 Feb 15.49
15 Mar 27.88
16 Abr 7.74
17 May 2.17
18 Jun 1.86
2,014
19 Jul 3.10
20 Ago 30.98
21 Set 27.88
22 Oct 37.79
23 Nov 46.47
24 Dic 58.86
25 Ene 5,250.00
26 Feb 2,400.00
27 Mar 5,040.00
28 Abr -
29 May -
30 Jun -
2,015
31 Jul -
32 Ago -
33 Set -
34 Oct -
35 Nov -
36 Dic -
37 Ene 2,940.00
38 Feb 1,920.00
39 Mar 6,160.00
40 Abr -
41 May -
42 Jun -
2,016
 2,016
43 Jul -
44 Ago -
45 Set -
46 Oct -
47 Nov -
48 Dic -
37 Ene 3,675.00
38 Feb 1,920.00
39 Mar 2,800.00
40 Abr -
41 May -
42 Jun -
2,017
43 Jul -
44 Ago -
45 Set -
46 Oct -
47 Nov -
48 Dic -

2-2015 CUADRO 4: ESTABLECIMIENTO DEL NIVEL Y TENDENCIA EMP

X Y X2 Y2
1.00 33.71 1.00 1,136.16
2.00 36.83 4.00 1,356.28
3.00 12.29 9.00 150.95
4.00 3.86 16.00 14.93
5.00 1.18 25.00 1.38
6.00 3.33 36.00 11.10
7.00 5.70 49.00 32.48
8.00 18.93 64.00 358.24
9.00 29.53 81.00 872.17
10.00 21.41 100.00 458.30
11.00 36.24 121.00 1,313.16
12.00 53.07 144.00 2,816.59
13.00 44.43 169.00 1,974.11
14.00 25.28 196.00 639.26
15.00 27.33 225.00 746.86
16.00 4.77 256.00 22.80
17.00 2.03 289.00 4.13
18.00 3.09 324.00 9.53
19.00 7.04 361.00 49.60
20.00 23.39 400.00 547.08
21.00 36.50 441.00 1,331.91
22.00 26.46 484.00 699.88
23.00 41.98 529.00 1,762.53
24.00 65.58 576.00 4,301.29
25.00 4,706.22 625.00 22,148,487.37
26.00 3,917.67 676.00 15,348,122.40
27.00 4,940.31 729.00 24,406,694.98
28.00 - 784.00 -
29.00 - 841.00 -
30.00 - 900.00 -
31.00 - 961.00 -
32.00 - 1,024.00 -
33.00 - 1,089.00 -
34.00 - 1,156.00 -
35.00 - 1,225.00 -
36.00 - 1,296.00 -
37.00 2,635.48 1,369.00 6,945,765.64
38.00 3,134.13 1,444.00 9,822,798.34
39.00 6,038.16 1,521.00 36,459,383.86
40.00 - 1,600.00 -
41.00 - 1,681.00 -
42.00 - 1,764.00 -
43.00 - 1,849.00 -
44.00 - 1,936.00 -
45.00 - 2,025.00 -
46.00 - 2,116.00 -
47.00 - 2,209.00 -
48.00 - 2,304.00 -
49.00 3,294.35 2,401.00 10,852,758.81
50.00 3,134.13 2,500.00 9,822,798.34
51.00 2,744.62 2,601.00 7,532,930.55
52.00 - 2,704.00 -
53.00 - 2,809.00 -
54.00 - 2,916.00 -
55.00 - 3,025.00 -
56.00 - 3,136.00 -
57.00 - 3,249.00 -
58.00 - 3,364.00 -
59.00 - 3,481.00 -
60.00 - 3,600.00 -
### ### ### 143,360,351.02
PRONOSTICO DE FOLDER

Factor de
Promedio Móvil
Promedio Móvil estacionalida
centrado
d incial
16,041.67 0.20
16,041.67 0.10
16,041.67 0.16
16,041.67 -
16,041.67 -
608.50 16,041.67 -
669.75 608.50 639.13 -
833.75 669.75 751.75 -
973.75 833.75 903.75 -
973.75 973.75 973.75 -
973.75 973.75 973.75 -
973.75 973.75 973.75 -
973.75 973.75 973.75 3.99
973.75 973.75 973.75 3.70
973.75 973.75 973.75 4.31
973.75 973.75 973.75 -
973.75 973.75 973.75 -
973.75 973.75 973.75 -
1,087.50 973.75 1,030.63 -
987.50 1,087.50 1,037.50 -
1,057.50 987.50 1,022.50 -
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 -
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 -
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 -
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 4.96
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 2.27
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 4.77
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 -
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 -
1,057.50 1,057.50 1,057.50 -
865.00 1,057.50 961.25 -
825.00 865.00 845.00 -
918.33 825.00 871.67 -
918.33 918.33 918.33 -
918.33 918.33 918.33 -
918.33 918.33 918.33 -
918.33 918.33 918.33 3.20
918.33 918.33 918.33 2.09
918.33 918.33 918.33 6.71
918.33 918.33 918.33 -
918.33 918.33 918.33 -
918.33 918.33 918.33 -
979.58 918.33 948.96 -
979.58 979.58 979.58 -
699.58 979.58 839.58 -
699.58 699.58 699.58 -
699.58 699.58 699.58 -
699.58 699.58 699.58 -
699.58 699.58 699.58 5.25
699.58 699.58 699.58 2.74
699.58 699.58 699.58 4.00
699.58 699.58 699.58 -
699.58 699.58 699.58 -
699.58 699.58 699.58 -
699.58 7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
7,229.17 -
NORMALIZADO PARA FOLDERES

ADA PARA FOLDERS

Factor de estacionalidad Nivel-demanda

normalizado (St) desestacionaliza
da
1.12 33.71
0.61 36.83
1.02 12.29
1.62 3.86
1.07 1.18
0.60 3.33
0.44 5.70
1.32 18.93
0.76 29.53
1.43 21.41
1.11 36.24
0.90 53.07
1.12 44.43
0.61 25.28
1.02 27.33
1.62 4.77
1.07 2.03
0.60 3.09
0.44 7.04
1.32 23.39
0.76 36.50
1.43 26.46
1.11 41.98
0.90 65.58
1.12 4,706.22
0.61 3,917.67
1.02 4,940.31
1.62 -
1.07 -
0.60 -
0.44 -
1.32 -
0.76 -
1.43 -
1.11 -
0.90 -
1.12 2,635.48
0.61 3,134.13
1.02 6,038.16
1.62 -
1.07 -
0.60 -
 0.44 -
1.32 -
0.76 -
1.43 -
1.11 -
0.90 -
1.12 3,294.35
0.61 3,134.13
1.02 2,744.62
1.62 -
1.07 -
0.60 -
0.44 -
1.32 -
0.76 -
1.43 -
1.11 -
0.90 -

Y TENDENCIA EMPLEANDO MÍNIMOS CUADRADOS 2012-2015

X.Y
33.71
73.66
36.86
15.45
5.88
19.99
39.89
151.42
265.79
214.08
398.61
636.86
577.60
353.97
409.93
 76.39
34.56
55.57
133.81
467.79
766.40
582.02
965.60
1,574.02
117,655.45
101,859.37
133,388.46
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
97,512.84
119,097.11
235,488.26
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
161,423.28
156,706.72
139,975.54
-
-
-
-
-
 -
-
-
-
1,270,996.89
 Mes (t) Demanda Pronóstico Tendencia Pronostico incluye
Actual (At) Alisado Ft Alisado Tt tendencia FITt
0 13000 1300
1 ### ### 1,196.00
2 7,000.00 ### 537.12 15,236.00
3 ### ### 287.05 14,125.92
4 ### ### 1,024.02 13,787.78
5 ### ### 731.68 16,654.25
6 8,000.00 ### 39.28 16,655.08
AÑO 7 6,000.00 ### - 677.79 14,963.34
2013 8 ### ### 162.78 12,492.88
9 ### ### 102.21 14,757.09
10 ### ### 1,485.58 14,707.88
11 ### ### 1,753.43 19,651.89
12 ### ### 1,107.44 22,074.94
21,567.39
 α= 0.2 β= 0.4
MAD

8236
3126
9212
3654
8655
8963
10507
757
17292
3348
8075
 demanda promedio
2015 2016 2017 2015-2017
### 14,000.00 17,500.00 18833
### 8,000.00 8,000.00 8667
### 22,000.00 10,000.00 16667
### 20,000.00 17,000.00 22333
### 10,000.00 12,000.00 14333
### 1,000.00 5,000.00 7000
### 8,000.00 - 6667
### 25,000.00 - 18667
### 11,000.00 - 10333
### 15,000.00 - 16667
### 18,000.00 - 12667
### 17,000.00 - 12667
13792
demanda promedio
anual

90
80
85
100
123
115
105
100
90