Pronostico Tendencia Pronostico SUAVIZAMIENTO HOLT-WINTERS (TEN

Periodo Demanda Suavizado Suavizada con TendenciMAD

X 0.8 0.4 F
1 1750 1750 0 0
2 1742 1743.6 -2.56 1750.00 8.00
3 1805 1792.21 17.91 1741.04 63.96 E(t) = Pronostico Suavizado
4 1620 1658.02 -42.93 1810.12 190.12 T(t) = Tendencia Suavizada
5 1488 1513.42 -83.60 1615.09 127.09 X(t) = Demanda real
6 1376 1386.76 -100.82 1429.82 53.82 F(t+1) = Demanda pronosticada
7 1193 1211.59 -130.56 1285.94 92.94
8 1014 1027.41 -152.01 1081.03 67.03
9 1200 1135.08 -48.14 875.39 324.61
10 1288 1247.79 16.20 1086.94 201.06
11 1457 1418.40 77.96 1263.99 193.01
12 1354 1382.47 32.41 1496.36 142.36
13 1477 1464.58 52.29 1414.88 62.12
14 1475 1483.37 38.89 1516.86 41.86
15 1450 1464.45 15.77 1522.26 72.26
16 1480.22 117.16

Pronostico Tendencia EstacionalidaPronostico SUAVIZAMIENTO HOLT-WIN

Periodo Demanda Suavizado Suavizada Suavizada Tend/Estaci MAD
X 0.8 0.4 0.3 Y
1 1750 1750 0 1 0
2 1742 1743.60 -2.56 0.9997 1750 8
3 1805 1792.61 18.07 1.00 1740.56 64.4392953
4 1620 1655.70 -43.92 0.99 1814.08 194.078744 E(t) = Pronostico Suavizado
5 1488 1518.92 -81.07 0.99 1603.47 115.474982 T(t) = Tendencia Suavizada
6 1376 1399.17 -96.54 0.99 1423.89 47.888239 S(t) = Estacionalidad suavizada
7 1193 1226.29 -127.08 0.98 1287.30 94.3001109 X(t) = Demanda real
8 1014 1044.55 -148.94 0.98 1081.21 67.2080544 F(t+1) = Demanda pronosticada
9 1200 1158.96 -43.60 1.00 877.48 322.516428
10 1288 1257.14 13.11 1.00 1111.40 176.600633
11 1457 1413.98 70.61 1.01 1276.45 180.549715
12 1354 1366.70 23.45 1.01 1503.21 149.214253
13 1477 1452.59 48.43 1.01 1398.48 78.5209572
14 1475 1469.40 35.78 1.01 1514.88 39.8798807
15 1450 1452.28 14.62 1.00 1516.64 66.6361704
16 1474.02 114.664819
IENTO HOLT-WINTERS (TENDENCIA)

co Suavizado
2000
ia Suavizada

nda pronosticada 1500

1000 Column B
Column C
Column D
500 Column E

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

-500

UAVIZAMIENTO HOLT-WINTERS ADITIVO (TENDENCIA Y ESTACIONALIDAD)

(t) = Pronostico Suavizado

(t) = Tendencia Suavizada 2000
(t) = Estacionalidad suavizada
(t) = Demanda real
(t+1) = Demanda pronosticada 1500

Column B
1000
Column C
Column D
Column E
500
Column F

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-500