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2
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS | Q4.2017
February 2018
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®
2018 LEADERSHIP TEAM
President
Elizabeth J. Mendenhall , ABR, ABRM, CIPS,
CRB, GRI, ePRO, LCI, PMN
President-Elect
John S. Smaby
Treasurer
Thomas A. Riley, CCIM, CRB
Immediate Past-President
Bill E. Brown
Vice President
Colleen A. Badagliacco, CRB, CRS, ePro,
GRI, SRES
Vice President
Kenny Parcell, ABR, BB, CRS
CONTENTS
1 | Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………. 5
2 | Investment Sales..………………………………………………………………………………….. 6
4 | Methodology………………………………………………………………………………………….. 13
Introduction
Q4.2017 Update
INVESTMENT SALES
Q4.2017 Percentage of REALTORS® Sales Volume Sales Prices
30%
Who Closed a Sale Transaction
75%
20%
10%
2008.Q4
2009.Q2
2009.Q4
2010.Q2
2010.Q4
2011.Q2
2011.Q4
2012.Q2
2012.Q4
2013.Q2
2013.Q4
2014.Q2
2014.Q4
2015.Q2
2015.Q4
2016.Q2
2016.Q4
2017.Q2
2017.Q4
-10%
-20%
Q4.2017 Average Transaction Value
$1.5 million
-30%
-40%
INVESTMENT SALES
2017 was down across the board in every food group Multifamily is very strong. Lots of buyers, local and from
with exception of larger REIT transactions. Specialty outside of market (mostly). Not enough sellers.
transactions such as self-storage are transitioning to new Industrial is fairly strong, too. Office and retail OK but
construction, which I expect will overtake existing not overly strong (other than new retail construction
general industrial user buildings in 2019. which is strong).
Current market is strong, advancing year over year at a The market is energized, but the gap between what the
healthy pace, but quarterly we saw a slight decrease in buyer wants and can afford and the seller is upside down.
activity mostly due to seasonal factors. Some growth
areas such as Springdale, have neighborhoods poised for We are seeing a surge in activity and interest since late
rapid growth and price increases, but, as of yet, the value 2015. People are excited about the new tax reform,
increases are mostly anticipatory as infrastructure is although in actuality, it does nothing to address the key
built. We anticipate increasing prices in these areas, but problems with the tax code as it relates to real estate
there is not much evidence to say specifically how much investment.
of the anticipated gains will be realized and how quickly.
Buyers are looking for "deals". There are "no deals," just
fair deals today -- but I'm concerned of another "bust"
not as bad as before, but "this engine keeps on running".
New Industrial warehouses are trying to lease at $5.50-
$6.00/sf NNN; cost of construction is high. Northwest
Sale Prices (YoY % Chg)
Arkansas Market Real Capital Analytics CRE Markets
REALTOR® CRE Markets
20.0%
10.0%
INVESTMENT SALES
13%
Office Industrial Retail International Transactions
Multifamily Hotel
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
$1.2 million
6.0%
5.0%
2014.Q1
2010.Q1
2010.Q3
2011.Q1
2011.Q3
2012.Q1
2012.Q3
2013.Q1
2013.Q3
2014.Q3
2015.Q1
2015.Q3
2016.Q1
2016.Q3
2017.Q1
2017.Q3
7.2%
Industrial Class BC 7.6 %
Retail Class A 6.5 %
Retail Class BC 7.6 %
Apartment Class A 6.0 %
Apartment Class BC 6.9 %
Hotel Class A 6.9 %
Hotel Class BC 7.5 %
Source: National Association of REALTORS®
INVESTMENT SALES
Rarely 9% Rarely 7%
Never 1% Never 1%
Regarding appraisers, our core local appraisers are solid Regarding appraisers, appraisers should be local and
and I share data with them. Appraisers from more distant know the local market. They should NOT be allowed to
locations struggle with understanding our market. work in a market they are not familiar with.
LEASING FUNDAMENTALS
Q4.2017 Percentage of REALTORS® New Construction Leasing Volume
15%
Who Closed a Lease Transaction
65%
10%
5%
% Change, Quarter-over-quarter
0%
2009.Q2
2009.Q4
2010.Q2
2010.Q4
2011.Q2
2011.Q4
2012.Q2
2012.Q4
2013.Q2
2013.Q4
2014.Q2
2014.Q4
2015.Q2
2015.Q4
2016.Q2
2016.Q4
2017.Q2
2017.Q4
-5%
-10%
-15%
Q4.2017 Leasing Q4.2017 Leasing
Volume Rates -20%
LEASING FUNDAMENTALS
REALTORS® Commercial Vacancy Rates REALTORS® Q4.2017 Vacancy Rates
Office 12.0 %
Office Industrial Retail
Industrial 7.8 %
Multifamily Hotel Retail 11.4 %
30.0%
Multifamily 5.0 %
25.0% Hotel 13.7 %
20.0%
It seems that people are ready to spend money on their
15.0% businesses. We are seeing a lot of activity in the leasing
market.
10.0% Retail is going through a period of consolidation, even in
major MSAs. Apartments show continued vigor and still
5.0% not good product for homeowners and investors to buy.
90%
80%
70%
Over 100,000 sf
60%
50,000 - 100,000 sf
50%
10,000 - 49,999 sf
40% 7,500 - 9,999 sf
30% 5,000 - 7,499 sf
20% 2,500 - 4,999 sf
10% Under 2,500 sf
0%
2009.Q1
2011.Q4
2017.Q3
2008.Q4
2009.Q2
2009.Q3
2009.Q4
2010.Q1
2010.Q2
2010.Q3
2010.Q4
2011.Q1
2011.Q2
2011.Q3
2012.Q1
2012.Q2
2012.Q3
2012.Q4
2013.Q1
2013.Q2
2013.Q3
2013.Q4
2014.Q1
2014.Q2
2014.Q3
2014.Q4
2015.Q1
2015.Q2
2015.Q3
2015.Q4
2016.Q1
2016.Q2
2016.Q3
2016.Q4
2017.Q1
2017.Q2
2017.Q4
*Prior to 2010.Q4 "Under 5,000 sf was the lowest category available. Source: National Association of Realtors®
LEASING FUNDAMENTALS
REALTORS® Most Pressing Challenges Direction of Business Opportunity (QoQ)
100% 8%
90% 6%
Inventory
80% Shortage
42% 4%
46%
Pricing Gap:
70% Buyers vs Sellers 2%
2016.Q2
2008.Q4
2009.Q2
2009.Q4
2010.Q2
2010.Q4
2011.Q2
2011.Q4
2012.Q2
2012.Q4
2013.Q2
2013.Q4
2014.Q2
2014.Q4
2015.Q2
2015.Q4
2016.Q4
2017.Q2
2017.Q4
50% Financing
23% -2%
21%
40%
Other -4%
30% 9% 13%
National Economy -6%
20%
12% 8%
-8%
Distressed
10% 10% Properties
10% -10%
1% 3%
0%
2017.Q4 2017.Q3 -12% Source: National Association of Realtors®
Methodology
The REALTORS® Commercial Real Estate Market In January 2018, NAR invited a random sample of
Trends measures quarterly activity in the 63,269 REALTORS® with an interest in commercial
commercial real estate markets, as reported in a real estate to complete an on-line survey. A total of
national survey. The survey collects data from 933 complete responses were received, for an
REALTORS® engaged in commercial real estate overall response rate of 1.5 percent. The main
transactions. The survey is designed to provide an measure of central tendency employed in the
overview of market performance, sales and leasing analysis is the mean.
transactions, along with information on current
economic challenges and future expectations.
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