Actividad N°2

Mes y Año X Y X*Y X2

Jan-99 -23 437,248 -10,056,704 529
Feb-99 -22 489,018 -10,758,396 484
Mar-99 -21 644,958 -13,544,118 441 X= ∑ X/N= 24/48= 0,5
Apr-99 -20 616,926 -12,338,520 400 Y= ∑ Y/N= 29.764.590/48=
May-99 -19 641,122 -12,181,318 361
Jun-99 -18 620,205 -11,163,690 324 X.Y= a + b. x
Jul-99 -17 599,540 -10,192,180 289
Aug-99 -16 619,929 -9,918,864 256
Sep-99 -15 646,736 -9,701,040 225
Oct-99 -14 614,329 -8,600,606 196 X.Y= 619.131,74 + 1927,78 *x
Nov-99 -13 631,894 -8,214,622 169
Dec-99 -12 565,472 -6,785,664 144
Jan-00 -11 452,804 -4,980,844 121 Pronóstico para los u
Feb-00 -10 517,339 -5,173,390 100 Mes/ Año X
Mar-00 -9 641,693 -5,775,237 81 Jan-03 25
Apr-00 -8 616,926 -4,935,408 64 Feb-03 26
May-00 -7 641,122 -4,487,854 49 Mar-03 27
Jun-00 -6 620,205 -3,721,230 36 Apr-03 28
Jul-00 -5 599,540 -2,997,700 25 May-03 29
Aug-00 -4 663,125 -2,652,500 16 Jun-03 30
Sep-00 -3 653,383 -1,960,149 9
Oct-00 -2 655,896 -1,311,792 4
Nov-00 -1 607,671 -607,671 1 Promedio
Dec-00 0 607,099 0 0 Mes/Año Demanda
Jan-01 1 454,469 454,469 1 Jan-99 437,248
Feb-01 2 483,954 967,908 4 Feb-99 489,018
Mar-01 3 604,778 1,814,334 9 Mar-99 644,958
Apr-01 4 635,590 2,542,360 16 Apr-99 616,926
May-01 5 704,043 3,520,215 25 May-99 641,122
Jun-01 6 838,027 5,028,162 36 Jun-99 620,205
Jul-01 7 707,997 4,955,979 49 Jul-99 599,540
Aug-01 8 734,227 5,873,816 64 Aug-99 619,929
Sep-01 9 687,274 6,185,466 81 Sep-99 646,736
Oct-01 10 779,326 7,793,260 100 Oct-99 614,329
Nov-01 11 700,255 7,702,805 121 Nov-99 631,894
Dec-01 12 540,950 6,491,400 144 Dec-99 565,472
Jan-02 13 424,631 5,520,203 169 Jan-00 452,804
Feb-02 14 468,330 6,556,620 196 Feb-00 517,339
Mar-02 15 626,628 9,399,420 225 Mar-00 641,693
Apr-02 16 628,219 10,051,504 256 Apr-00 616,926
May-02 17 641,537 10,906,129 289 May-00 641,122
Jun-02 18 619,091 11,143,638 324 Jun-00 620,205
Jul-02 19 647,840 12,308,960 361 Jul-00 599,540
 Aug-02 20 696,946 13,938,920 400 Aug-00 663,125
Sep-02 21 666,194 13,990,074 441 Sep-00 653,383
Oct-02 22 720,335 15,847,370 484 Oct-00 655,896
Nov-02 23 686,928 15,799,344 529 Nov-00 607,671
Dec-02 24 662,841 15,908,184 576 Dec-00 607,099
Total 24 29,764,590 32,641,043 9224 Jan-01 454,469
Feb-01 483,954
Mar-01 604,778
Apr-01 635,590
May-01 704,043
Jun-01 838,027
Jul-01 707,997
Aug-01 734,227
Sep-01 687,274
Oct-01 779,326
Nov-01 700,255
Dec-01 540,950
Jan-02 424,631
Feb-02 468,330
Mar-02 626,628
Apr-02 628,219
May-02 641,537
Jun-02 619,091
Jul-02 647,840
Aug-02 696,946
Sep-02 666,194
Oct-02 720,335
Nov-02 686,928
Dec-02 662,841
N°2

620,095.63

b= n*∑x.y - ∑x * ∑y b= 48 * 32.641.043 - 24* 29.764.590 =

n * ∑x - (∑x)
2 2
48 * 9224 - (24)2
b=1.927,78
a= Y - b.X a= 620.095,63- 1.927,78 * 0,5
a= 619.131,74

Pronóstico para los ultimos 6 meses

Pronóstico Indice estacional TOTAL AJUSTADO
667326.24 0.988 659,318.33
669254.02 0.988 661,222.97
671181.8 0.988 663,127.62
673109.58 0.988 665,032.27
675037.36 0.988 666,936.91
676965.14 0.988 668,841.56

Promedio móvil
PM semestral PMC IE
574,912.83 588,437.17 0.74
601,961.50 612,870.75 0.80
623,780.00 623,928.17 1.03
624,076.33 623,859.92 0.99
623,643.50 622,874.50 1.03
622,105.50 617,544.42 1.00
612,983.33 600,755.33 1.00
588,527.33 579,978.17 1.07
571,429.00 571,008.75 1.13
570,588.50 570,804.92 1.08
571,021.33 571,790.33 1.11
572,559.33 577,120.42 0.98
581,681.50 593,909.50 0.76
606,137.50 618,286.33 0.84
630,435.17 631,409.33 1.02
632,383.50 635,631.00 0.97
638,878.50 636,090.92 1.01
633,303.33 632,211.17 0.98
631,119.00 619,029.75 0.97
606,940.50 592,009.58 1.12
577,078.67 573,028.25 1.14
568,977.83 567,285.67 1.16
565,593.50 573,624.50 1.06
581,655.50 600,899.50 1.01
620,143.50 641,270.83 0.71
662,398.17 683,254.25 0.71
704,110.33 710,985.00 0.85
717,859.67 729,837.67 0.87
741,815.67 741,500.00 0.95
741,184.33 716,427.92 1.17
691,671.50 668,057.67 1.06
644,443.83 622,285.75 1.18
600,127.67 595,073.83 1.15
590,020.00 577,427.75 1.35
564,835.50 559,942.33 1.25
555,049.17 561,560.92 0.96
568,072.67 586,673.42 0.72
605,274.17 624,325.50 0.75
643,376.83 646,674.00 0.97
649,971.17 657,647.50 0.96
665,323.83 669,106.42 0.96
672,889.00 676,534.83 0.92
680,180.67
TOTAL 41.48
PROMEDIO 0.988