DESCARGAS MAXIMAS EXTREMAS (m3/s)

AÑO
1926
ESTACIÓN VENTANILLA
1600.0
ES
1927 1200.0 1800.0
1928 720.0
1929 669.0 1600.0
1930 580.1
1931 572.1 1400.0
1932 502.1
1933 500.0 1200.0
1934 483.6
1000.0
1935 427.5
1936 360.5 800.0
1937 350.1
1938 349.1 600.0
1939 331.0
1940 325.1 400.0
1941 320.1
1942 303.8 200.0
1943 293.7
1944 273.2 0.0
1945 266.2 2 6 928 9 30 932 9 34 9 36 938 9 40
1946 264.4 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947 251.5
1948 250.2
1949 221.2
1950 205.2
1951 197.3
1952 188.1
1953 187.2
1954 183.1
1955 180.1
1956 175.0
1957 170.8
1958 169.5
1959 160.3
1960 159.9
1961 146.3
1962 146.1
1963 146.0
1964 145.3
1965 137.8
1966 132.9
1967 128.5
1968 119.3
1969 118.5
1970 100.2
1971 96.9
1972 90.3
1973 53.1
1974 45.5
1975 44.3
CUENCA JEQUETEPEQUE

ESTACIÓN HIDROMETRICA

ESTACION
VENTANILLA
AÑO Q(M3/S)
1926 1600
1927 1200
1928 720
1929 669
1930 580.1
1931 572.1
1932 502.1
1933 500
1934 483.6
1935 427.5
1936 360.5
1937 350.1
1938 349.1
1939 331
1940 325.1
1941 320.1
1942 303.8
1943 293.7
1944 273.2
1945 266.2
1946 264.4
1947 251.5
1948 250.2
1949 221.2
1950 205.2
 ESTACIÓN VENTANILLA

28 9 30 932 9 34 9 36 938 9 40 942 9 44 946 948 95 0 952 9 54 956 958 96 0 962 9 64 966 968 97 0 9 72 974
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Herramientas / Análisis de Datos / Estadística Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media 300.8
Mediana 201.3
Moda #VALUE!
Desviación estándar 280.0
Varianza 78416
Curtosis 10.29
Coeficiente de asimetría 2.88
Rango 1600
Mínimo 44.3
Máximo 1600
Suma 15042.0
Cuenta 50
 AÑO Q(M3/S)
1951 197.3
1952 188.1
1953 187.2
1954 183.1
1955 180.1
1956 175
1957 170.8
1958 169.5
1959 160.3
1960 159.9
1961 146.3
1962 146.1
1963 146
1964 145.3
1965 137.8
1966 132.9
1967 128.5
1968 119.3
1969 118.5
1970 100.2
1971 96.9
1972 90.3
1973 53.1
1974 45.5
1975 44.3
DESCARGAS MAXIMAS EXTREMAS (m3/s)
AÑO Q Q ORDENADOS F(x) f(x)
1926 1600.0 1600.0 1.0000 0.000000
1927 1200.0 1200.0 0.9993 0.000008
1928 720.0 720.0 0.9328 0.000465
1929 669.0 669.0 0.9057 0.000600
1930 580.1 580.1 0.8407 0.000866 HIS
1931 572.1 572.1 0.8336 0.000891
1932 502.1 502.1 0.7638 0.001100
0.001600
1933 500.0 500.0 0.7615 0.001106
1934 483.6 483.6 0.7430 0.001151
1935 427.5 427.5 0.6745 0.001286 0.001400
1936 360.5 360.5 0.5844 0.001393
1937 350.1 350.1 0.5698 0.001403
1938 349.1 349.1 0.5684 0.001404 0.001200
1939 331.0 331.0 0.5429 0.001416
1940 325.1 325.1 0.5345 0.001419
1941 320.1 320.1 0.5274 0.001421 0.001000
1942 303.8 303.8 0.5042 0.001425
1943 293.7 293.7 0.4898 0.001424
0.000800
1944 273.2 273.2 0.4607 0.001418
1945 266.2 266.2 0.4508 0.001414
1946 264.4 264.4 0.4482 0.001413 0.000600
1947 251.5 251.5 0.4301 0.001403
1948 250.2 250.2 0.4282 0.001402
1949 221.2 221.2 0.3881 0.001368 0.000400
1950 205.2 205.2 0.3664 0.001344
1951 197.3 197.3 0.3558 0.001331
1952 188.1 188.1 0.3436 0.001314 0.000200
1953 187.2 187.2 0.3424 0.001312
1954 183.1 183.1 0.3371 0.001304
1955 180.1 180.1 0.3332 0.001298 -
1956 175.0 175.0 0.3266 0.001288 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0
1957 170.8 170.8 0.3212 0.001279
1958 169.5 169.5 0.3195 0.001276
1959 160.3 160.3 0.3079 0.001256
1960 159.9 159.9 0.3074 0.001255
1961 146.3 146.3 0.2905 0.001223
1962 146.1 146.1 0.2903 0.001223
1963 146.0 146.0 0.2902 0.001223
1964 145.3 145.3 0.2893 0.001221
1965 137.8 137.8 0.2802 0.001203
1966 132.9 132.9 0.2743 0.001190
1967 128.5 128.5 0.2691 0.001179
1968 119.3 119.3 0.2584 0.001155
1969 118.5 118.5 0.2575 0.001152
1970 100.2 100.2 0.2368 0.001102
1971 96.9 96.9 0.2332 0.001093
1972 90.3 90.3 0.2261 0.001074
1973 53.1 53.1 0.1882 0.000963
1974 45.5 45.5 0.1809 0.000940
1975 44.3 44.3 0.1798 0.000936
 MEDIA 300.84
DESV.EST. 280.03

HISTOGRAMA

0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1600.0 1800.0
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO Q Q ORDENADOS y = ln (x) F(x) f(x)
1926 1600.0 1600.0 7.3778 0.9958 0.0167
1927 1200.0 1200.0 7.0901 0.9877 0.0429
1928 720.0 720.0 6.5793 0.9406 0.1590
1929 669.0 669.0 6.5058 0.9280 0.1846
1930 580.1 580.1 6.3632 0.8978 0.2399
1931 572.1 572.1 6.3493 0.8945 0.2457
1932 502.1 502.1 6.2188 0.8588 0.3013
1933 500.0 500.0 6.2146 0.8575 0.3032
1934 483.6 483.6 6.1813 0.8472 0.3177
1935 427.5 427.5 6.0580 0.8047 0.3715
1936 360.5 360.5 5.8875 0.7353 0.4406
1937 350.1 350.1 5.8582 0.7223 0.4513
1938 349.1 349.1 5.8554 0.7210 0.4524
1939 331.0 331.0 5.8021 0.6964 0.4705
1940 325.1 325.1 5.7841 0.6879 0.4763
1941 320.1 320.1 5.7686 0.6805 0.4811
1942 303.8 303.8 5.7164 0.6549 0.4960
1943 293.7 293.7 5.6826 0.6380 0.5046
1944 273.2 273.2 5.6102 0.6009 0.5197
1945 266.2 266.2 5.5842 0.5874 0.5241
1946 264.4 264.4 5.5775 0.5838 0.5251
1947 251.5 251.5 5.5274 0.5574 0.5315
1948 250.2 250.2 5.5223 0.5546 0.5320
1949 221.2 221.2 5.3991 0.4887 0.5368
1950 205.2 205.2 5.3240 0.4485 0.5325
1951 197.3 197.3 5.2847 0.4277 0.5282
1952 188.1 188.1 5.2370 0.4026 0.5209
1953 187.2 187.2 5.2322 0.4001 0.5201
1954 183.1 183.1 5.2100 0.3886 0.5160
1955 180.1 180.1 5.1935 0.3801 0.5126
1956 175.0 175.0 5.1648 0.3655 0.5062
1957 170.8 170.8 5.1405 0.3533 0.5003
1958 169.5 169.5 5.1329 0.3495 0.4983
1959 160.3 160.3 5.0770 0.3221 0.4827
1960 159.9 159.9 5.0745 0.3209 0.4819
1961 146.3 146.3 4.9857 0.2793 0.4526
1962 146.1 146.1 4.9843 0.2787 0.4521
1963 146.0 146.0 4.9836 0.2784 0.4518
1964 145.3 145.3 4.9788 0.2762 0.4501
1965 137.8 137.8 4.9258 0.2529 0.4303
1966 132.9 132.9 4.8896 0.2375 0.4161
1967 128.5 128.5 4.8559 0.2238 0.4024
1968 119.3 119.3 4.7816 0.1950 0.3712
1969 118.5 118.5 4.7749 0.1925 0.3683
1970 100.2 100.2 4.6072 0.1369 0.2951
1971 96.9 96.9 4.5737 0.1272 0.2806
1972 90.3 90.3 4.5031 0.1085 0.2507
1973 53.1 53.1 3.9722 0.0256 0.0803
1974 45.5 45.5 3.8177 0.0155 0.0524
1975 44.3 44.3 3.7910 0.0141 0.0485
Un valor lógico que determina la forma de la función. Si el argu MEDIA
DESV.EST.
histograma de los x

0.6000

Si quiero conocer el caudal p

0.5000

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

0.4000

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =

0.3000 --> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

0.2000 z = f ( Pno exc)

0.1000 z=

- y=
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1600.0 1800.0
x (Caudales) y=

y=

histograma de los y
y=
0.6000
x=
0.5000
x=
0.4000

0.3000

0.2000

0.1000

-
- 1.0000 2.0000 3.0000 4.0000 5.0000 6.0000 7.0000 8.0000
y = ln x
 300.84 MEDIA 5.4202
280.03 DESV.EST. 0.7429

C.ASIMETRIA 0.2041

ero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años, Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 25 años,

do que Tr = 1 / P exc sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

xc = 1 / 100 = 0.01 --> Pexc = 1 / 25 =

o exc = 1-P exc = 0.99 --> Pno exc = 1-P exc =

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99) z = f ( Pno exc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV

2.32634787 z = 1.7506861

m+z s y=m+z s

5,42 + 2,326 * 0.7429 y = 5,42 + 1.7507 * 0.7429

7.1484 y= 6.7207

ln (x) y= ln (x)

e (y) x= e (y)

1272.1 x= 829.4
 caudal para Tr = 25 años, Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

0.04 --> Pexc = 1 / 100 = 0.02

0.96 --> Pno exc = 1-P exc0.98

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,96) z = f ( Pno =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,98)

z = 2.0537489

y=m+z s

5,42 + 1.7507 * 0.7429 y = 5,42 + 2.0537 * 0.7429

y= 6.9459

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x= 1038.9
audal para Tr = 50 años,

ORM.ESTAND.INV(0,98)

37 * 0.7429
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
AÑO Q Q ORDENADOS y = ln (x-a) F(x) f(x)
1926 1600.0 1600.0 7.38564 0.99676 0.01408
1927 1200.0 1200.0 7.10057 0.98964 0.03946
1928 720.0 720.0 6.59667 0.94406 0.16182
0.6000
1929 669.0 669.0 6.52452 0.93139 0.18976
1930 580.1 580.1 6.38478 0.90072 0.25057 0.5000
1931 572.1 572.1 6.37119 0.89727 0.25688
0.4000
1932 502.1 502.1 6.24369 0.86063 0.31848
1933 500.0 500.0 6.23960 0.85932 0.32051 0.3000
1934 483.6 483.6 6.20708 0.84864 0.33667
0.2000
1935 427.5 427.5 6.08712 0.80467 0.39612
1936 360.5 360.5 5.92199 0.73284 0.47206 0.1000
1937 350.1 350.1 5.89372 0.71933 0.48371
-
1938 349.1 349.1 5.89096 0.71799 0.48482 3.5000 4.0
1939 331.0 331.0 5.83963 0.69259 0.50450
1940 325.1 325.1 5.82231 0.68380 0.51069
1941 320.1 320.1 5.80740 0.67615 0.51583
1942 303.8 303.8 5.75717 0.64983 0.53172
1943 293.7 293.7 5.72474 0.63243 0.54075
1944 273.2 273.2 5.65548 0.59441 0.55649 0.70000

1945 266.2 266.2 5.63068 0.58056 0.56088 0.60000

1946 264.4 264.4 5.62421 0.57692 0.56192
0.50000
1947 251.5 251.5 5.57653 0.54997 0.56810
1948 250.2 250.2 5.57159 0.54717 0.56859 0.40000

1949 221.2 221.2 5.45469 0.48035 0.57190 0.30000

1950 205.2 205.2 5.38382 0.43999 0.56610
0.20000
1951 197.3 197.3 5.34688 0.41917 0.56080
1952 188.1 188.1 5.30207 0.39422 0.55235 0.10000

1953 187.2 187.2 5.29758 0.39174 0.55138 -

1954 183.1 183.1 5.27685 0.38036 0.54665 3.50000 4.
1955 180.1 180.1 5.26141 0.37195 0.54284
1956 175.0 175.0 5.23459 0.35749 0.53566
1957 170.8 170.8 5.21196 0.34543 0.52906
1958 169.5 169.5 5.20484 0.34168 0.52689
1959 160.3 160.3 5.15302 0.31481 0.50973
1960 159.9 159.9 5.15070 0.31363 0.50891
1961 146.3 146.3 5.06861 0.27311 0.47729
1962 146.1 146.1 5.06735 0.27251 0.47677
1963 146.0 146.0 5.06672 0.27221 0.47650
1964 145.3 145.3 5.06229 0.27011 0.47467
1965 137.8 137.8 5.01365 0.24752 0.45369
1966 132.9 132.9 4.98054 0.23275 0.43872
1967 128.5 128.5 4.94984 0.21950 0.42442
1968 119.3 119.3 4.88244 0.19198 0.39197
1969 118.5 118.5 4.87636 0.18961 0.38899
1970 100.2 100.2 4.72608 0.13675 0.31439
1971 96.9 96.9 4.69640 0.12764 0.29979
1972 90.3 90.3 4.63427 0.10994 0.26979
1973 53.1 53.1 4.18590 0.03072 0.09959
1974 45.5 45.5 4.06307 0.02035 0.07051
1975 44.3 44.3 4.04222 0.01892 0.06629
 LN2; C.A.=-0,2
0.6000

0.5000

0.4000 Si quiero conocer el

0.3000
sabiendo que Tr = 1
0.2000

0.1000 --> Pexc = 1 / 100 =

--> Pno exc = 1-P ex
-
3.5000 4.0000 4.5000 5.0000 5.5000 6.0000 6.5000 7.0000 7.5000 8.0000
z = f ( Pe

z=
LN3; C.A.=0
y=
0.70000

0.60000 y=

0.50000
y=
0.40000

0.30000 y=
0.20000
x-a=
0.10000

- x-a=
3.50000 4.00000 4.50000 5.00000 5.50000 6.00000 6.50000 7.00000 7.50000 8.00000
x=

x=

Si quiero conocer el

sabiendo que Tr = 1
--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =
--> Pno exc = 1-P ex

z = f ( Pe

z=

y=

y=

y=

y=

x-a=

x-a=

x=

x=

Si quiero conocer el

sabiendo que Tr = 1

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 =

--> Pno exc = 1-P ex

z = f ( Pe

z=

y=

y=
 y=

y=

x-a=

x-a=

x=

x=
 MEDIA 300.84
DESV.EST. 280.03
MEDIA 5.4202
DESV.EST. 0.7429

C.ASIMETRIA 0.2041
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pno exc = 1-P ex 0.99

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

2.32634787

m+z s

5,489 + 2,326 * 0.6967 MEDIA 5.4890

DESV.EST. 0.6967
7.1099 a (12.6525)

ln (x - a) C.ASIMETRIA 3.55E-01

e (y)

1223.97365

1223.9737 - 12.6525

1211.3

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 = 0.02
--> Pno exc = 1-P ex 0.98

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,98)

2.05374891

m+z s

5,489 + 2,326 * 0.6967

6.9199

ln (x - a)

e (y)

1012.24994

1012.2499 - 12.6525

999.6

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 25años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / P exc

--> Pexc = 1 / 100 = 0.04

--> Pno exc = 1-P ex 0.96

=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)

1.75068607

m+z s

5,489 + 2,326 * 0.6967

 6.7088

ln (x - a)

e (y)

819.569046

819.569 - 12.6525

806.9
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO Q Q ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a Tr
1926 1600.0 1600.0 5.93 377.95
1927 1200.0 1200.0 4.28 72.41
1928 720.0 720.0 2.29 10.34 1800.0
1929 669.0 669.0 2.07 8.47
1930 580.1 580.1 1.71 6.02 1600.0 f(x) = 275.10

Q (m3/s))
1931 572.1 572.1 1.67 5.84 R² = 0.98834
1400.0
1932 502.1 502.1 1.38 4.51
1933 500.0 500.0 1.37 4.47 1200.0
1934 483.6 483.6 1.31 4.21 1000.0
1935 427.5 427.5 1.07 3.45
1936 360.5 360.5 0.80 2.75 800.0
1937 350.1 350.1 0.75 2.66
600.0
1938 349.1 349.1 0.75 2.65
1939 331.0 331.0 0.67 2.50 400.0
1940 325.1 325.1 0.65 2.46
1941 320.1 320.1 0.63 2.42 200.0
1942 303.8 303.8 0.56 2.30 0.0
1943 293.7 293.7 0.52 2.23 1.00
1944 273.2 273.2 0.43 2.10
1945 266.2 266.2 0.40 2.05
1946 264.4 264.4 0.40 2.04
1947 251.5 251.5 0.34 1.97
1948 250.2 250.2 0.34 1.96
1949 221.2 221.2 0.22 1.81
1950 205.2 205.2 0.15 1.73
1951 197.3 197.3 0.12 1.70
1952 188.1 188.1 0.08 1.66
1953 187.2 187.2 0.08 1.66
1954 183.1 183.1 0.06 1.64
1955 180.1 180.1 0.05 1.63
1956 175.0 175.0 0.03 1.61
1957 170.8 170.8 0.01 1.59
1958 169.5 169.5 0.00 1.59
1959 160.3 160.3 (0.03) 1.55
1960 159.9 159.9 (0.04) 1.55
1961 146.3 146.3 (0.09) 1.50
1962 146.1 146.1 (0.09) 1.50
1963 146.0 146.0 (0.09) 1.50
1964 145.3 145.3 (0.10) 1.50
1965 137.8 137.8 (0.13) 1.47
1966 132.9 132.9 (0.15) 1.46
1967 128.5 128.5 (0.17) 1.44
1968 119.3 119.3 (0.20) 1.42
1969 118.5 118.5 (0.21) 1.41
1970 100.2 100.2 (0.28) 1.36
1971 96.9 96.9 (0.30) 1.35
1972 90.3 90.3 (0.32) 1.33
1973 53.1 53.1 (0.48) 1.25
1974 45.5 45.5 (0.51) 1.23
1975 44.3 44.3 (0.51) 1.23

F (x 

x medio 300.84 0.5485

desv. Est x (Sx) 280.03 1.1607

n = número de dat 50
yn medio = 0.5485
Sn = 1.1607

parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 241.26
u = x-yn*a= 168.51
 1800.0
1600.0 f(x) = 275.1005433344 ln(x) + 49.4485064334
Q (m3/s))

R² = 0.9883428078
1400.0
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00
Tr (AÑOS)

1800.0

1600.0 f(x) = 275.1005433344 ln(x) + 49.4485064334

R² = 0.9883428078

1400.0
Q (m3/seg)

1200.0

1000.0

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00
Tr (Años)
 400.0

200.0

0.0
1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00
Tr (Años)

P exc = F (x > X)

e  y 1 x−u
F (x  X )  1 e  y=
Tr a
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años, Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 50a

sabiendo que: sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.01 1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.02

e(-e(-y))= 0.99 e(-e(-y))= 0.98

-e(-y)= -0.0100503 -e(-y)= -0.020202707

e(-y)= 0.0100503 e(-y)= 0.0202027073

-y = -4.6001492 -y = -3.901938658

y = 4.6001492 y = 3.9019386579

y= x-u y= x-u
a a

x= u + a.y x= u + a.y

x= 1278.3 x= 1109.9
1,000.00
 1,000.00

r el caudal para Tr = 50años, Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr =25años,

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.04

e(-e(-y))= 0.96

-e(-y)= -0.040822

e(-y)= 0.040822

-y = -3.198534

y = 3.1985343

y= x-u
a

x= u + a.y

x= 940.2
VALORES GUMBEL

Media reducida Yn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600

Desviación tipica reducida Sn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.3880
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO Q DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x)
1926 1600.0 1600.0 1.176E-05 9.969E-01
1927 1200.0 1200.0 5.218E-05 9.860E-01
1928 720.0 720.0 3.041E-04 9.172E-01
1929 669.0 669.0 3.657E-04 9.001E-01
1930 580.1 580.1 5.031E-04 8.618E-01
1931 572.1 572.1 5.177E-04 8.578E-01
1932 502.1 502.1 6.637E-04 8.166E-01
1933 500.0 500.0 6.687E-04 8.152E-01
1934 483.6 483.6 7.084E-04 8.039E-01
1935 427.5 427.5 8.620E-04 7.600E-01
1936 360.5 360.5 1.086E-03 6.950E-01
1937 350.1 350.1 1.125E-03 6.835E-01
1938 349.1 349.1 1.129E-03 6.824E-01
1939 331.0 331.0 1.200E-03 6.613E-01
1940 325.1 325.1 1.224E-03 6.542E-01
1941 320.1 320.1 1.245E-03 6.480E-01
1942 303.8 303.8 1.314E-03 6.271E-01
1943 293.7 293.7 1.359E-03 6.136E-01
1944 273.2 273.2 1.454E-03 5.848E-01
1945 266.2 266.2 1.488E-03 5.745E-01
1946 264.4 264.4 1.497E-03 5.718E-01
1947 251.5 251.5 1.560E-03 5.521E-01
1948 250.2 250.2 1.567E-03 5.501E-01
1949 221.2 221.2 1.718E-03 5.025E-01
1950 205.2 205.2 1.806E-03 4.743E-01
1951 197.3 197.3 1.850E-03 4.598E-01
1952 188.1 188.1 1.903E-03 4.426E-01
1953 187.2 187.2 1.908E-03 4.409E-01
1954 183.1 183.1 1.932E-03 4.330E-01
1955 180.1 180.1 1.949E-03 4.272E-01
1956 175.0 175.0 1.979E-03 4.172E-01
1957 170.8 170.8 2.003E-03 4.088E-01
1958 169.5 169.5 2.011E-03 4.062E-01
1959 160.3 160.3 2.066E-03 3.874E-01
1960 159.9 159.9 2.068E-03 3.866E-01
1961 146.3 146.3 2.149E-03 3.579E-01
1962 146.1 146.1 2.150E-03 3.575E-01
1963 146.0 146.0 2.151E-03 3.573E-01
1964 145.3 145.3 2.155E-03 3.558E-01
1965 137.8 137.8 2.200E-03 3.394E-01
1966 132.9 132.9 2.229E-03 3.286E-01
1967 128.5 128.5 2.255E-03 3.187E-01
1968 119.3 119.3 2.310E-03 2.977E-01
1969 118.5 118.5 2.314E-03 2.959E-01
1970 100.2 100.2 2.419E-03 2.526E-01
1971 96.9 96.9 2.438E-03 2.445E-01
1972 90.3 90.3 2.473E-03 2.283E-01
1973 53.1 53.1 2.628E-03 1.331E-01
1974 45.5 45.5 2.642E-03 1.131E-01
1975 44.3 44.3 2.644E-03 1.099E-01

(0.5892) 0.30
 f(x
3.000E-03

2.500E-03
Parámetros:
Forma: axb> 0 2.000E-03

Escala: bsx > 0 1.500E-03

1.000E-03

x (media) 300.8 5.000E-04

s2 (varianza) 78416.2
0.000E+00
a 1.154
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800
b 260.66

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

1.200E+00
--> P exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
--> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.99
1.000E+00

x = f ( Pno exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

8.000E-01

x = 1290.05917
6.000E-01

4.000E-01

2.000E-01
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr =50 años,
0.000E+00
sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc 0.0 200.0 400.0

--> P exc = 1 / 100 = 0.02

--> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.98

x = f ( Pno exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 1104.13948
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 25 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

--> P exc = 1 / 100 = 0.04

--> Pno exc = 1-P exc = 0.96

x = f ( Pno exc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 917.382302
 f(x)
E-03

E-03

E-03

E-03

E-03

E-04

E+00
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1600.0 1800.0

F(x)
1.200E+00

1.000E+00

8.000E-01

6.000E-01

4.000E-01

2.000E-01

0.000E+00
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1600.0 1800.0
 Valores de "K", para la distribución Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

99 80 50 20 10 4 2 1
de asimetría Periodo de retorno en años -8 -6
g 1.0101 1.25 2 5 10 25 50 100
3 -0.667 -0.636 -0.396 0.42 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051
2.8 -0.714 -0.666 -0.384 0.46 1.21 2.275 3.114 3.973
2.6 -0.769 -0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267 3.071 3.889
2.4 -0.832 -0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256 3.023 3.8
2.2 -0.905 -0.752 -0.33 0.574 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705
2 -0.99 -0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605
1.8 -1.087 -0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499
1.6 -1.197 -0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388
1.4 -1.318 -0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271
1.2 -1.449 -0.844 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149
1 -1.558 -0.852 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022
0.8 -1.733 -0.856 -0.132 0.78 1.336 1.993 2.453 2.891
0.6 -1.88 -0.857 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755
0.4 -2.029 -0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 f(x
R²
0.2 -2.178 -0.85 -0.033 0.83 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0 -2.326 -0.842 0 0.842 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326
-0.2 -2.472 -0.83 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178
-0.4 -2.615 -0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606 1.834 2.029
-0.6 -2.755 -0.8 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88
-0.8 -2.891 -0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733
-1 -3.022 -0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588
-1.2 -3.149 -0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282 1.379 1.449
-1.4 -3.271 -0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318
-1.6 -3.388 -0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116 1.166 1.197
-1.8 -3.499 -0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087
-2 -3.605 -0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958 0.98 0.99
-2.2 -3.705 -0.574 0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905
-2.4 -3.8 -0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823 0.83 0.832
-2.6 -3.889 -0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764 0.768 0.769
-2.8 -3.973 -0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712 0.714 0.714 1.0101
-3 -4.051 -0.42 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667
 K versus g para diferentes Tr
K(Tr) = f (g)

Coeficiente de asimetría, g

-6 -4 -2 0 2
4
f(x) = - 0.0190533736x^3 + 0.0033863384x^2 + 0.7315950048x + 2.3035830721
Tr = 100
R² = 0.9997773985

3
f(x) = - 0.0139955002x^3 - 0.0169498622x^2 + 0.538798488x + 2.0338847204
R² = 0.9996471006

f(x) = - 0.0089576406x^3 - 0.0322070293x^2 + 0.3497118487x + 1.7353205582

2
R² = 0.9993979366

coeficiente K
f(x) = - 0.0026067691x^3 - 0.0412508532x^2 + 0.1113227648x + 1.27384144
R² = 0.998537587 1
f(x) = 0.0013766782x^3 - 0.0354644365x^2 - 0.0476827658x + 0.8390991
R² = 0.9992547489
f(x) = 0.0040778313x^3 - 8.6057325391559E-18x^2 - 0.1691693955x + 1.05222764652546E-17
R² = 0.9999829299 0

f(x) = 0.0013992929x^3 + 0.0354719417x^2 - 0.047857402x - 0.8392134392

f(x)R²
= =- 0.0192834086x^3
0.9992713572 - 0.0036470447x^2 + 0.7332205855x - 2.3017810699
R² = 0.9997466776 -1

-2
Tr = 1.01

-3

-4
1.0101 Polynomial (1.0101) 1.25 Polynomial (1.25)
 Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D
DATOS Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma Normal LN2
1 1600.0 0.020 0.0000 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.01961 0.01540
2 1200.0 0.039 0.0007 0.012 0.010 0.014 0.014 0.03855 0.02692
3 720.0 0.059 0.0672 0.059 0.056 0.097 0.083 0.00839 0.00053
4 669.0 0.078 0.0943 0.072 0.069 0.118 0.100 0.01587 0.00647
5 580.1 0.098 0.1593 0.102 0.099 0.166 0.138 0.06128 0.00411
6 572.1 0.118 0.1664 0.106 0.103 0.171 0.142 0.04870 0.01213
7 502.1 0.137 0.2362 0.141 0.139 0.222 0.183 0.09890 0.00393
8 500.0 0.157 0.2385 0.142 0.141 0.224 0.185 0.08161 0.01441
9 483.6 0.176 0.2570 0.153 0.151 0.237 0.196 0.08052 0.02367
10 427.5 0.196 0.3255 0.195 0.195 0.290 0.240 0.12944 0.00077
11 360.5 0.216 0.4156 0.265 0.267 0.363 0.305 0.19996 0.04898
12 350.1 0.235 0.4302 0.278 0.281 0.376 0.316 0.19489 0.04243
13 349.1 0.255 0.4316 0.279 0.282 0.377 0.318 0.17668 0.02411
14 331.0 0.275 0.4571 0.304 0.307 0.399 0.339 0.18261 0.02908
15 325.1 0.294 0.4655 0.312 0.316 0.407 0.346 0.17136 0.01798
16 320.1 0.314 0.4726 0.320 0.324 0.413 0.352 0.15886 0.00580
17 303.8 0.333 0.4958 0.345 0.350 0.435 0.373 0.16245 0.01173
18 293.7 0.353 0.5102 0.362 0.368 0.449 0.386 0.15723 0.00904
19 273.2 0.373 0.5393 0.399 0.406 0.477 0.415 0.16676 0.02651
20 266.2 0.392 0.5492 0.413 0.419 0.487 0.425 0.15707 0.02045
21 264.4 0.412 0.5518 0.416 0.423 0.489 0.428 0.14000 0.00441
22 251.5 0.431 0.5699 0.443 0.450 0.508 0.448 0.13856 0.01123
23 250.2 0.451 0.5718 0.445 0.453 0.510 0.450 0.12077 0.00562
24 221.2 0.471 0.6119 0.511 0.520 0.552 0.498 0.14136 0.04076
25 205.2 0.490 0.6336 0.552 0.560 0.576 0.526 0.14345 0.06133
26 197.3 0.510 0.6442 0.572 0.581 0.588 0.540 0.13441 0.06255
27 188.1 0.529 0.6564 0.597 0.606 0.602 0.557 0.12697 0.06799
28 187.2 0.549 0.6576 0.600 0.608 0.604 0.559 0.10854 0.05088
29 183.1 0.569 0.6629 0.611 0.620 0.610 0.567 0.09430 0.04275
30 180.1 0.588 0.6668 0.620 0.628 0.614 0.573 0.07859 0.03164
31 175.0 0.608 0.6734 0.635 0.643 0.622 0.583 0.06558 0.02666
32 170.8 0.627 0.6788 0.647 0.655 0.629 0.591 0.05136 0.01928
33 169.5 0.647 0.6805 0.651 0.658 0.631 0.594 0.03341 0.00349
34 160.3 0.667 0.6921 0.678 0.685 0.645 0.613 0.02546 0.01126
35 159.9 0.686 0.6926 0.679 0.686 0.645 0.613 0.00635 0.00714
36 146.3 0.706 0.7095 0.721 0.727 0.666 0.642 0.00360 0.01482
37 146.1 0.725 0.7097 0.721 0.727 0.666 0.643 0.01576 0.00417
38 146.0 0.745 0.7098 0.722 0.728 0.666 0.643 0.03525 0.02346
39 145.3 0.765 0.7107 0.724 0.730 0.667 0.644 0.05400 0.04091
40 137.8 0.784 0.7198 0.747 0.752 0.679 0.661 0.06452 0.03718
41 132.9 0.804 0.7257 0.762 0.767 0.686 0.671 0.07827 0.04146
42 128.5 0.824 0.7309 0.776 0.781 0.693 0.681 0.09266 0.04729
43 119.3 0.843 0.7416 0.805 0.808 0.707 0.702 0.10154 0.03815
44 118.5 0.863 0.7425 0.807 0.810 0.708 0.704 0.12022 0.05527
45 100.2 0.882 0.7632 0.863 0.863 0.735 0.747 0.11920 0.01924
46 96.9 0.902 0.7668 0.873 0.872 0.740 0.755 0.13518 0.02921
47 90.3 0.922 0.7739 0.891 0.890 0.749 0.772 0.14764 0.03008
48 53.1 0.941 0.8118 0.974 0.969 0.801 0.867 0.12934 0.03319
49 45.5 0.961 0.8191 0.985 0.980 0.811 0.887 0.14171 0.02372
50 44.3 0.980 0.8202 0.986 0.981 0.812 0.890 0.16019 0.00546
0.19996 0.06799
Rechazada Aceptada
0.1923
Diferencia Delta D
LN3 Gumbel Gamma
0.01637 0.01696 0.01647
0.02885 0.02541 0.02522
0.00288 0.03786 0.02400
0.00982 0.03962 0.02143
0.00124 0.06802 0.04013
0.01492 0.05350 0.02460
0.00212 0.08464 0.04614
0.01619 0.06674 0.02793
0.02511 0.06083 0.01961
0.00075 0.09344 0.04392
0.05148 0.14747 0.08930
0.04538 0.14039 0.08119
0.02711 0.12200 0.06271
0.03290 0.12494 0.06417
0.02208 0.11287 0.05171
0.01013 0.09972 0.03827
0.01684 0.10158 0.03952
0.01462 0.09559 0.03341
0.03304 0.10434 0.04263
0.02729 0.09461 0.03332
0.01132 0.07756 0.01640
0.01866 0.07646 0.01651
0.00185 0.05873 0.00107
0.04907 0.08179 0.02694
0.06982 0.08618 0.03552
0.07103 0.07852 0.03036
0.07637 0.07287 0.02801
0.05924 0.05463 0.01012
0.05101 0.04126 0.00161
0.03982 0.02622 0.01540
0.03467 0.01438 0.02499
0.02711 0.00118 0.03624
0.01126 0.01645 0.05324
0.01853 0.02203 0.05409
0.00010 0.04103 0.07287
0.02100 0.03994 0.06381
0.00200 0.05925 0.08298
0.01731 0.07870 0.10238
0.03482 0.09725 0.12048
0.03184 0.10550 0.12376
0.03667 0.11771 0.13251
0.04303 0.13069 0.14225
0.03512 0.13652 0.14086
0.05235 0.15494 0.15862
0.01910 0.14755 0.13490
0.02960 0.16235 0.14650
0.03151 0.17242 0.14990
0.02811 0.14038 0.07431
0.01887 0.14996 0.07388
0.00069 0.16801 0.09032
0.07637 0.17242 0.15862
Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada
0.1923