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Heat Map of EM Vulnerabilities

December 2017

HEAT MAP OF SELECTED VULNERABILITY INDICATORS FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES

The Heat Map is constructed to compare relative vulnerabilities across countries and is used for analyses in our publications such as the Global Economic Monitor and Capital
Flows Report, in particular to assess the cross-country impact of higher risk aversion or increase in Fed policy rates, especially in EMs with external vulnerabilities and less
credible policy frameworks. Vulnerabilities are assessed along three dimensions: (1) Dependence on external financing, (2) Domestic real and financial sector vulnerabilities, and
(3) Policy credibility and political stability that affect the scope for macroeconomic adjustment. The countries are assigned a color ranking for each vulnerability indicator
signifying their vulnerability relative to other countries in the sample, with red implying most vulnerable and dark green implying least vulnerable. Details about the data sources
and methodology used to assign the color rankings can be found in the appendix. The underlying Heat Map data can be downloaded here.

For questions about the Heat Map or to be added to the Heat Map mailing list, please contact Jonathan Fortun.

Argent ina Brazil Chile China Colombia Czech Rep. Hungary India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Mexico Philippines Poland Russia Sout h Africa Thailand Turkey Ukraine
External Financing Vulnerability Index: 0.83 0.22 0.39 0.27 0.56 0.67 0.4 0.22 0.44 0.2 0.73 0.5 0.4 0.53 0.33 0.56 0.4 0.89 0.67
Current Account Balance/GDP (%, 2017f) -4.3 -0.7 -1.5 1.5 -3.8 1 3.7 -1.1 -1.7 5.8 2.2 -2 -0.3 -1.1 3 -2.5 10.4 -4.6 -4.1
(Current Account Deficit -Net FDI)/GDP (%, 2017f) -2.5 2.7 2.1 3.4 0.4 5.1 8.3 0.8 -0.1 6.7 6 0.2 2.8 0.8 4.3 -2 10.9 -3.3 -0.2
Reserve Coverage Ratio (2017f) 0.4 2.8 1.3 3.8 1.4 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.19 2.6 1 1.5 3.7 0.8 3 1 2.9 0.5 0.5

Short-Term External Debt/Total External Debt (%, 2017f) 36 9 13 48 14 59 10 17 14 28 40 15 18 15 11 20 40 24 14
External Debt/GDP (%, 2017f) 38 32 67 14 40 96 93 22 34 28 73 40 25 73 34 45 31 53 119
REER (% deviation in 2017Q2 from 2007Q1-2017Q1 average) 29.3 6 3 -8.6 22.7 -0.3 4.6 -7.6 -0.5 -4.7 12.3 13.5 -1 5.9 10.9 7.6 -2.7 21.2 21.5

Domestic Financial Vulnerability Index: 0.28 0.48 0.56 0.5 0.52 0.52 0.33 0.43 0.67 0.48 0.52 0.71 0.38 0.48 0.48 0.52 0.48 0.67 0.28
Non-Financial Corporate Debt/GDP (%, ∆ in 2010-2017) -4 3 31 35 42 8 -29 -4 72 -1 10 57 2 26 22 21 17 83 -1
Households Debt/GDP (%, ∆ in 2010-2017) 2.1 2 10 19 7 3 -21 1.4 4 18 9 3 1 3 6 -7 19 3 -13
Private Sector Real Credit Growth (% y/y, 2010-16 average) 13 7 7 15 11 4 -6 6 12 4 7 8 11 6 7 2 7 17 -6
Consolidated Foreign Claims/Domestic Credit (%, 2016-end) 25 16 71 5 46 127 70 15 35 10.9 35 74 23 61 12 41 25 52 21
Foreign Holdings of Local Currency Govt. Debt (%, Jun, 2017) 13 2 26 48 19 4 39 11 27 34 34 31 40 16 18
Foreign Holdings of Equities (%, Dec, 2016) 9 29 10 9 8 23 46 21 17 26 12 28 14 18 18 26 17 19 36
Nominal Home Prices (% y/y, 2010-2016 average) 7 5 3 9 1 2 18 7 3 9 5 8 -1 -0.6 6 5 14

Policy Vulnerablity Index: 0.72 0.83 0.28 0.5 0.56 0.33 0.61 0.56 0.33 0.22 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.5 0.61 0.5 0.56 0.83
2017-End Inflation Forecast (vs. Central Bank Target) 22.7 (12-17*) 3.1 (4.5±1.5) 2.1 (3±1) 3.4 (~3.0) 4.2 (3±1) 2.3 (2±1) 2.1 (3±1) 4.2 (4±2) 3.8 (4±1) 2.3 (2.0) 3.5 (2-3) 6.2 (3±1) 2.6 (3±1) 1.7 (2.5±1) 2.5 (4.0) 4.4 (3-6) 0.7 (2.5±1.5) 11.2 (5±2) 14.0 (5±1)
Current Real Interest Rates 6.1 3.9 0.4 1 0.6 -1.8 -1.2 1.8 2.7 -0.8 -0.5 0.8 0.4 -0.2 5.8 2.4 0.8 -3.2 -0.5
Fiscal Balance/GDP (%, 2017f) -6.6 -7.8 -0.7 -3.8 -1.9 0.1 -2.8 -6.2 -2.6 1.5 -3.1 -2.8 -1 -3 -2 -3.4 -1.6 -3.6 -3.9
Gross Government Debt/GDP (%, 2017f) 53 83 25 48 49 35 73 69 29 38 55 53 34 54 17 53 41 28 86

World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (2016 release) -0.03 -0.15 1.02 -0.42 -0.18 0.95 0.46 -0.19 -0.18 0.75 0.31 -0.28 -0.35 0.74 -0.73 0.19 -0.32 -0.46 -0.75
WEF Global Competitiveness Index (2016-17) 3.81 4.06 4.64 4.95 4.3 4.72 4.2 4.3 4.52 5.03 5.16 4.41 4.36 4.56 4.51 4.47 4.64 4.39 4
Parliamentary/Presidential Elections in 2017-2018 Oct-18 Dec-17 May-18 Jan-18 Spring 2018 Aug-18 Jul-18 Mar-18 Nov-18 (2019)

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