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Landslides (2016) 13:15451554 Ubydul Haque I Philipp Blum I Paula F. da Silva I Peter Andersen I Jrgen Pilz I
DOI 10.1007/s10346-016-0689-3 Sergey R. Chalov I Jean-Philippe Malet I Mateja Jemec Aufli I Norina Andres I
Received: 27 August 2015
Accepted: 15 February 2016
Eleftheria Poyiadji I Pedro C. Lamas I Wenyi Zhang I Igor Peshevski I Halldr G. Ptursson I
Published online: 7 May 2016 Tayfun Kurt I Nikolai Dobrev I Juan Carlos Garca-Davalillo I Matina Halkia I Stefano Ferri I
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016 George Gaprindashvili I Johanna Engstrm I David Keellings
Abstract Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large exploitation, and water leakage from utilities (Margottini et al.
economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatali- 2013). Often, it can be a combination of natural and human
ties and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, activities that induces landslides (European Soil 2015).
the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a According to the World Bank report (2005), 3.7 106 km2 of
spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for land surface is prone to landslides worldwide, and nearly 300
27 European countries over the last 20 years (19952014). million people live in areas of potential landslide risk (Dilley
Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout et al. 2005). From 2004 to 2010, 2620 deadly landslides were
Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous documented worldwide causing 32,322 fatalities the highest report-
areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries ed value so far (Petley 2012). Landslides also cause billions of
were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the Euros of damage to infrastructure such as roads, railways, pipe-
highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is lines, structures, embankments, buildings, and other property
observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest losses (Sassa and Canuti 2009; Emergency 2015; European Soil
period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by 2015; Safe land 2015 ). For example, in Italy, the total annual losses
natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), caused by landslides are 3.9 billion Euros (Klose et al. 2015). In the
earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, present study, an exchange rate from December 2015 with US$
such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss 1.0 = 0.91 Euros is applied. In contrast, in Germany, the annual
per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This total loss is only about 0.3 billion Euros, from which about 68
study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping million Euros results must be from damage costs of the highway
by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, system (Klose et al. 2015). In comparison, the global total annual
and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and losses caused by landslides are about 18 billion Euros, which is
property. about 17 % of the annual average global natural disaster losses with
about 110 billion Euros (Munich 2014). The highest losses per
Keywords Landslides . Casualties . Fatalities . Europe . percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) with 0.19 % world-
Economic loss wide however occur in Italy, which along with the USA, Japan, and
India suffer the highest economic impact from landslides (Klose
Introduction et al. 2015; International Monetary 2015).
The territory of Europe is highly exposed to exogenous slope In Europe, landslides are widely spatially distributed (Hervs
processes due to its geological, geomorphological, and climate 2003; Van Den Eeckhaut et al. 2012; Gunther et al. 2014) though
variations. Such slope processes include slope mass movements they predominate in mountainous, hilly, and coastal regions.
that can be further categorized into landslides, soil slips, debris Approximately 1.3 to 3.6 million Europeans live in landslide
flow, and rock falls. Recently, triggered by increasingly frequent prone areas (Jaedicke et al. 2014). Additionally, 8000 to
extreme weather events, mass movements in many European 20,000 km of roads and railways are highly exposed to land-
countries have become common natural phenomena and have slides (Jaedicke et al. 2014). Their exposure threatens the effec-
caused considerable damage and economic losses (e.g., Schuster tiveness of emergency response and recovery operations (Safe
1996; Klose et al. 2015). land 2015). In the beginning of the twenty-first century, Europes
The incidence and recurrence of landslides are conditioned by landslide prone regions have been experiencing an increasing
several topographic and geo-environmental aspects related to soil number of landslide occurrences and casualties (Guha et al.
properties, geological structure, lithology and weathering condi- 2015). The International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) reported
tions, slope morphology, land cover, and water flow (Margottini that, in the last century, Europe was the second highest in the
et al. 2013). Landslide natural triggering depends on the rapid world among all continents in fatalities and had the highest
changes in groundwater level and/or flow (volume and velocity), economic losses (1.55 billion Euros) as a result of landslides
precipitation (both average and peak), natural erosion (at coastal (Sassa and Canuti 2009; Guha et al. 2015).
cliffs (Landslides 2015), river banks, along slopes, and areas of However, there are gaps in the current database and in prior
sediment discharges (Teramoto et al. 2005), snowmelt, earth- studies of landslides distribution in Europe (Safe land 2015; Hervs
quakes, and volcanic processes (Margottini et al. 2013; Fell et al. 2003; Gunther et al. 2014). For instance, the actual casualty figures
2008). In addition, landslides can be also triggered by human are greatly underestimated in the EM-DAT database, because most
activities, namely, by slope undercutting or excavation in the of the landslides casualties are registered under the main events
construction of motor/railways, landfill or building construction, that trigger them, such as earthquake, storm and floods (Guha et al.
mining, deforestation, irrigation, during dam construction and 2015). Previous work on this theme focused on a relatively short
> Sources: Google, English daily newspapers in each European country and online reports
> Studied period: 1st January 1995 to 31st December 2014
Search > Search terms: (Albania,...Vacan) AND (landslide) AND (death, killed, injured, missing)
> Inclusion criterion: Reported landslides (disaster)
> Fatal landslides were reported in 27 European countries
> First cross-check and data update from the following web sources:
EM-DAT: http://www.emdat.be/database
Landslide blog: http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/
Disaster report: http://www.disaster-report.com/
Relief web: http://reliefweb.int/
IFRC: http://www.ifrc.org/
Update Internaonal consorum on landslides: http://iclhq.org/Europe.htm
Mudslide News: http://www.infopig.com/keywords/Mudslide.html
USGS: http://landslides.usgs.gov/recent/
http://ojostreamer.herokuapp.com/
Killer Disasters: http://www.angelre.com/on/predicons/bymonth.html
Earthquake-Report.com: http://earthquake-report.com/2013/06/01/worldwide-landslide-report/
Google alert: www.google.com/alerts
Fig. 1 Search and development of the European landslides database (ELS-DAT) on fatal landslides for 27 European countries from January 1995 to December 2014
Fatalies
Casuales 70
300
Fatal landslides per year
60
250
Annual casualties and fatalities
40
150
30
100
20
50
10
0 0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Fig. 2 Annual casualties and fatalities and fatal landslides per year for the studied period 19952014
(90 %). Hence, future studies and databases should include the border, Germany, Romania, and Balkan Peninsula. Significant
triggering factors for the recorded landslides. upward trend was observed in Austria, Italy, and Turkey
The most recent (new hot spot) time step interval was hot spot (Fig. 7b).
in the French and Spanish border and Balkan Peninsula (Fig. 7a). Settlements within 25 km of an observed landslide were
Whereas consecutive hot spots (a single uninterrupted run of hot highlighted (red areas) to illustrate potential impact on human
time step intervals, comprised of less than 90 % of all intervals) life (Fig. 8). The map reveals a spatially varied impact of land-
were detected in most parts of Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, slides on settlements with some landslide locations in close prox-
Italy, and Switzerland. Some sporadic (some of the time step imity to settlements, representing a greater risk to life, while
intervals are hot) hot spots were observed in French-Swiss others occur in more remote locations. Many of the observed
350
300
250
200
Fatalies
150
100
50
Country
landslides in the Austrian Alps, Northern Italy, Spain, and Turkey Herzegovina, Slovenia, Southern Italy, Portugal, and Western
have occurred in sparsely populated areas. However, it can be Europe have occurred in much more densely populated areas,
seen that the majority of the observed landslides in Bosnia and presenting a greater threat to life Fig. 8.
10000
Italy
1000
Economic loss in Mio. Euro
Germany
Spain
Georgia
100
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Azerbaijan Turkey
Armenia France
10
Macedonia
Slovenia Norway
Serbia Portugal
Iceland
1
1 10 100 1000 10000
Fatalies
Fig. 5 Fatalities and economic losses due to fatal landslides in Europe (Sources: UNDP Armenia 2011; Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Azerbaijan; Geological
Institute, Bulgaria; Grislain-Letrmy and Peinturier 2010; Geological survey of Georgia; Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany; Geological survey of Iceland; MunichRe Insurance
company; Geological survey of FYROM; Finance Norway; Serbian geological society; Statistical office of the Republic Slovenia 2013; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow
and Landscape Research; Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Turkey; Direccin General de Proteccin Civil y Emergencias; Vranken et al. 2014;
Constantinova 2009 and Klose et al. 2015)
Fig. 6 Seasonality of fatal landslides in Europe (MAMMarch, April, and May; JJAJune, July, and August; SONSeptember, October, and November;
DJFDecember, January, and February; Red dot shows deadly landslides)
Economic losses as a result of landslides have also been substan- latter might be explained by data capture, which should be better for
tial across many of the 27 countries. Landslides in Italy caused the last years due to the increase of events. However, other factors
damage of approximately 3.9 billion Euros per year (Fig. 5) (Salvati such as spatial variability in the impacts of climate change are more
et al. 2010). Such annual loss has caused financial damage amounting likely to be involved and control the increased landslide occurrences.
to nearly 39.6 million Euros in Switzerland (Hilker et al. 2009) and For example, throughout much of the Iberian Peninsula, there has
5080 million Euros in Belgium (Vranken et al. 2014). In Georgia, it been a significant decline in heavy precipitation events, which may
varies from 6.4 million to 91.2 million Euros per year (Fig. 5) trigger landslides, in the lead up to and during the study period while
(Constantinova 2009; Grislain-Letrmy and Peinturier 2010; Roy other areas such as northern Italy have experienced increases in
and Ochiai 2013). This study suggests total economic loss in Europe heavy precipitation (EEA 2014). Thus, further studies of changes in
was approximately 4.7 billion Euros in each year (Fig. 5). Economic extreme precipitation in relation to trends in landslides are
loss data were only collected from private insurance companies and warranted.
does not include public sector costs. Landslides in Europe are reported throughout the year; howev-
er, there is a strong seasonal pattern that is probably dominated by
Discussion snow melt (February) and rainfall (April to July), where in July was
The data indicate an increase in fatal landslides during the the highest peak of fatal landslide numbers (Fig. 6). As the ground
period, which would be consistent with increases in extreme in the North freezes in the winter time, landslides become less
rainfall events (EEA 2014). However, the comparison of the likely. It must be stressed that these conclusions refer to landslide
periodicity of fatal events may lead to a note of caution risk, being larger from May to August, and this could be explained
(Fig. 2). It appears that fatal events in for instance Spain, either by the increase in landslide hazard (i.e., larger number of
Switzerland, and Austria have occurred throughout the study landslide occurrence) and/or higher exposure of people to land-
period, while Italy and to some extent Greece are unique by slides (i.e., higher exposure of people to landslides that is due to a
having nearly all events in the period 20102014 except Sarno lack of adequate land use planning corresponds to an increased
landslides in 1998 causing almost 160 fatalities. In Portugal, vulnerability).
71 % of the death toll is due to two major events involving Nearly 14 % of fatal landslides were associated with floods,
debris flows, one in 1997 in S. Miguel Island (Azores), causing storms, earthquakes, coastal erosional processes, mining, and
29 fatalities, and the other in 2010 in Madeira Island, causing construction works or were subsequently reported after these
42 fatalities; the remaining 29 % are fatalities associated with events. Flooding is a common phenomenon each year
earth/rock fall events, causing an average of 2 to 3 deaths. The (Choryski et al. 2012; Kundzewicz et al. 2012) in most parts of
Fig. 8 Settlements potentially at risk of fatal landslides. All settlements in blue, buffer polygons, and those settlements within the buffers are colored red, country
boundaries are placed on top
central European countries, and its specific association with preliminary exposure map to identify landslide-exposed popula-
landslides should be mapped as a priority. This study also tions to aid in the implementation of protection and emergency
showed earthquake, mining, construction works, coastal cliff- measures.
induced landslide and deadly landslides due to train derailment With such a large increase in the occurrence of landslides, it is
in Europe (Supplement Figure S2). Nearly 90 % of worldwide likely that economic losses will continue to grow. This study also
fatalities were caused by landslides triggered by prolonged pre- reported yearly loss due to landslides has already surpassed pre-
cipitation (Sassa and Canuti 2009). The trigger mechanisms for vious record (Sassa and Canuti 2009; Guha et al. 2015). Economic
86 % of deadly landslides that occurred in Europe however loss in this study was given based on the available information.
could not be determined, but might be associated with excessive Detailed information about economic loss will help the govern-
pore pressure due to rainfall and snow melting or soil erosion ment, insurance companies, municipal corporations, planners,
due to deforestation or combination of rainfall and deforesta- policy makers, and disaster authorities to ensure a sustainable
tion (Wienhofer et al. 2011). Further study and detailed location- development.
specific investigations, risk zone identification, monitoring, and Many of the 27 European countries analyzed are undertaking
planning will help in near future and save human lives and different activities to help mitigate landslide risk. Many of them
prevent property losses. have landslide inventory maps or are in the phase of preparation
Fatalities and casualties have varied through space and time. (Van Den Eeckhaut et al. 2012). Also, there exist some studies on
Spatial-temporal risk zones are identified (Fig. 3). Reasons of new landslide hazard and risk zoning (Van Westen et al. 2006; Gunther
and consecutive significant hot spots in central European and et al. 2013) and some efforts are being made to prepare landslide
Balkan countries were not immediately clear and need to be susceptibility map for the whole territory of Europe.
investigated further (Fig. 7a). Increasing trend of landslides in The differences in deadly landslide estimates are related both to
few spots in Austria, Italy, and Turkey also needs further study methodology and the time period (considered period from
(Fig. 7b). Many of those deadly events recurred in mountain January 1995 to December 2014 in the present study and EM-
regions with warm temperate climate, such as in the North-East DAT covers period from September 2002 to December 2010).
of Turkey, Southern Russian Federation, Georgia, Italy, Bosnia, This explains the cases of higher rates of total fatalities in the
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Spain, present database. In few cases, the lower rates in the present
Austria, and Switzerland. The present study also suggested that database in comparison with EM-DAT were identified (Spain and
there is a very high mortality (100 dead from 1995 to 2014) as a Austria). It might be due to the separation of other triggering
direct consequence of landslides in Turkey, Russia, and Italy. factors from landslides.
A high resolution (10 m) 2014 settlements map of Europe It should also be stressed that although every effort has been
showed that most of the places in some Central European and made to compile a complete landslide dataset for these 27
Mediterranean countries (Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, Italy, European countries it is possible that landslides have been
Spain, Bosnia, FYROM, and Eastern Turkey) have highly exposed underreported in some instances. It is, therefore, likely that the
populations (Fig. 8). Such an overview map can serve as a numbers of casualties and total economic losses from landslides
Halkia : S. Ferri
Caparica, Portugal G.
M. Gaprindashvili
Department
Joint of Centre,
Research Geology,European
NationalCommission,
Environmental Agency, Ministry of Environment and
P. Andersen NaturalItaly
Resources Protection,
Department of Geography, Ispra,
Tbilisi, Georgia
University of Bergen,
Bergen, Norway G. Gaprindashvili
Department of Geology, National Environmental Agency, Ministry of Environment and
Natural Resources Protection,
J. Pilz Tbilisi, Georgia
Alpen-Adria University of Klagenfurt,
Universittsstr. 65-67, 9020,
Klagenfurt, Austria