Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Introduction
were being made and this brings the banks to the issue on risk
management.
for the Chinese banks. It should also be noted that the Chinese
1
Risk management
economy is still operating under a relatively conservative banking
climate. The rules and regulations set by the banks are tightly linked
Important Events:
2004: effective on April 25, 2004 bank reserve ratio was increased
by 0.5% to 7.5%. Chinese firms are financed by banks at a rate of
98 per cent but often fail to pay back their loans, as a result, there
are almost half of the bank’s assets are unpaid, caused half of the
banks insolvent. In 2004, there was US$ 45 billion used to save
China’s second and third largest banks, the Bank of China and the
China Construction Bank. Subsequently, another US$ 100 billion
were used to save the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and
the Agricultural Bank of China. 2
2006: On April 28, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised lending
rates for the first time since October 2004, boosting the one-year
benchmark rate by 27 base points to 5.85 per cent, as part of efforts
to curb the overheating in some sectors such as real estate.
Jan 2010: The central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio by
0.5% with effective day on 18 Jan 2010. It's a clear sign that it was
determined to drain excessive liquidity in the market and curb
lending.
Time Line:
Time Change in Directi Notes
2
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Inflation:-China-raises-bank-reserve-
ratio-to-11-per-cent-9132.html
reserve ratio on
1987 10% to 12% Up
1988 12% to 13% Up
1998-03- 13% to 8% Down
21
1999-11- 8% to 6% Down
21
2003-09- 6% to 7% Up
21
2004-04- 7% to 7.5% Up
25
2006-07- 7.5% to 8.0% Up
05
In 2004, there was inflation about 3%, highest among many years.
For example, food prices increased 8.1%, edible oil prices rised by
insolvency problem. About half of the banks’ assets are unpaid, and
pressures and prevent the speculative and real estate bubble from
3
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FA06Ad03.html
rate in the first months of the year jumped 18 per cent to 130 per
understated and it gives one the jitters to think how much is hidden
4
http://english.epochtimes.com/news/4-8-4/22730.html
open market operation, reserve requirement, interest rate policy, re-
Over the past two years, China's foreign exchange reserve has
grown fast, leading to substantial increase in base money injection
as a result of Forex purchase. In line with the overall money and
credit plan, the People's Bank of China (PBC) has maintained the
stable growth of base money through open market operation.
National Bureau Statistics of China showed that there has been a boom in
China’s reserve accumulation from the early 2000s till present, as shown
5
Glick, R., & Hutchison,M., (2009) Navigating the Trilemma: Capital
Inflows and Monetary Policy in China. Journal of Asian Economics,20,205-
224.
investments and very large portfolio capital inflows.
swings in “hot money” suggest that China’s capital inflows are sensitive to
6
This interpretation is standard in the literature(Prasad &Wei,2005b).
inflation, driven up stock prices, and helped to create a worrisome real
is that it makes the market more effervescent, stimulating the demand for
stock shares and property, which in turns drive up the prices as well. Hot
size and its short term nature of investing. Instead of moving with changes
capital flow into China take the form of over-reported or forged FDI.
7
Zhang, G., & Fung, H. G. (2006). On the imbalance between the real
estate market and the stock markets in China. The Chinese Economy, 39,
26−39.
8
Guo, F., & Huang, Y. S., Does “hot money” drive China's real estate and
stock markets? International
and inflationary pressures.9 It also depends on the domestic banking
central banks must be able offer higher yields to convince domestic firms
to hold them.10 Besides that, the government could also tighten bank
between reserve money growth and broad money growth.11 Broad money
increase and greater window guidance to control excess liquidity and keep
9
Glick, R., & Hutchison,M., (2009) Navigating the Trilemma: Capital
Inflows and Monetary Policy in China. Journal of Asian Economics,20,205-
224.
10
Glick, R., & Hutchison,M., (2009) Navigating the Trilemma: Capital
Inflows and Monetary Policy in China. Journal of Asian Economics,20,205-
224.
11
Glick, R., & Hutchison,M., (2009) Navigating the Trilemma: Capital
Inflows and Monetary Policy in China. Journal of Asian Economics,20,205-
224.
the broader money aggregates in control.
China has high saving rates, both household and firms, which lead to a
vast flow of liquidity into the banking system, as savers have lesser
12
Prasad,E.(2007,October) Monetary policy independence, the currency
regime, and the capital account in China. Paper presented at the
Conference on China’s Exchange Rate Policy. Peterson Institute of
International Economics.
2.2.2.1 Credit surge
2009 more than doubled from 2008. The total new loans made increased
2009.13 Figure 1 compares the volume of new loans between 2008 and
Figure 1
2008 2009 Increase
New loans from 2008 to
2009
January 804 1,600 99%
February 243 1,100 352%
March 286 1,900 564%
April 464 591 28%
May 319 665 108%
The main reason behind the credit surge is low interest rates which
What is most worrying out of the credit surge is the area that the funds
all loans made by Chinese banks are now flowing into the property
15
market. The central bank revealed that individual mortgage loans in the
first three quarters of 2009 totaled 925 billion yuan, almost quadrupling
13
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-targets-11-trillion-in-new-
loans-in-2010-2010-01-19
14
http://mpettis.com/2009/06/china%E2%80%99s-loan-growth-isn
%E2%80%99t-boosting-my-confidence-in-china%E2%80%99s-
%E2%80%9Cgreen-shoots%E2%80%9D/
15
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aWZU4xri7P9U
16
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aWZU4xri7P9U
With record new loans extended, it has boosted property buying for home
ownership and also possibly for the less desirable purpose, property
prices (new and second hand houses) is on an increasing trend, with the
19
9.5% rise recorded in Jan 2010 being the highest increase in 21 months.
Figure 2
17
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601089&sid=atGjFThc4UvM
18
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/investing/chinas-call-to-cool-off-lending-
gives-investors-a-chill/19355813/?icid=sphere_blogsmith_inpage_dailyfinance
19
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-
02/11/content_9462315.htm
20
square meter of the house. In shanghai, prices of second-hand
properties experienced an annual increase of 41%, up to 14,700 yuan per
square meter average in December. For new properties, there is a 65%
annual surge in prices to an average of 20,187 yuan per square meter in
December.21
Similarly, property market boom is taking place even in the poor cities of
appreciated by 10% over 2009 and this figure is far more than the
speculation has fuelled the property boom. To make things worse, large
prices greatly and hurt the banks with unpaid loans. Therefore, it is
imperative for the Chinese banks to manage the high credit risk
Apart from the property sector, the credit surge is taking effect in China’s
20
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/27/content_12711265.htm
21
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2010-02/03/content_19360939.htm
prices have surged and the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index has increased by
nearly one-third
Similar to property lending, the loans are structured like mortgages. Since
commodity prices are much more unstable than housing prices, the
With the surge in lending, the banks may be sowing seeds for future
liquidity risks. High volume of funds is being channeled out of the banks
debs due. Furthermore, the house and commodity mortgage loans have
The lending spree coupled with the slowing of global economy may have
set a hotbed for the increase in NPLs. Plunging enterprise profits may lead
23
corporate firms to default on their loans. It is estimated that for every 1
% point slow down in annual economic expansion, the banks’ NPL ratio
24
could increase by 0.99 point.
22
http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-06-19/110186641.html
23
http://www.domain-b.com/finance/banks/20090522_chinese_banks.html
24
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKPEK22500020081205?
pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
Despite so, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) reported
that the NPL of Chinese commercial banks dipped by 62.89 billion yuan to
497.33 yuan in 2009. The NPL ratio also decreased by 0.84 % point to
25
reach 1.58 % point. However, these figures may not necessarily indicate
Moreover, Chinese banks are now conducting off balance sheet activities
26
like repackaging of loans to hide bad loans off their balance sheets. The
issue of NPLs may also not be evident yet as fresh loans haven’t gone bad.
any default with new lending will not surface until the loan is due.
Therefore, the lending spree may have sown seeds for future NPLs which
163 billion yuan of new loans to the property sector, including mortgages
28
and loans to developers. This figure does not reflect the total risk
the ratio of delinquent mortgages by three times and a 30% drop will
29
result in a five-fold increase.
In Beijing, empty office buildings are sprouting across the capital of China.
facing a high risk of bad loans. If the property market plunges, it will be
curb their lending for the rest of the . Meanwhile, for nonstate-owned
lenders like Citi Bank and Everbright Bank, the Central Bank asked them
the first time of China's central bank to raise bank reserve requirements
The direct cause of this action is the surge of new lending. Chinese banks
doled out a record 9.6 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in new loans last year.
The lending surge, combined with Beijing's 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan
helped kick-start the economy after a late 2008 slump, but aroused fears
29
http://www.123jump.com/market-update/China-Regulators-Worry-Bad-
Debts;-Lenovo-Profit/36412/
30
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=20601109&sid=a6i2PSZD.Jr4&pos=11
31
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20100120-
193196.html
Bank to rid the financial system of excess cash that can fuel inflation and
asset bubbles.
Regulators, worried about potential inflation, asset bubbles and bad loans,
feel they must set limits on total credit growth, but by doing so they
create incentives for banks to churn out loans quickly to gain as much of
projects and real estate. All banks have been ordered to "heighten their
This action has not changed the government's stance of a tight credit but
a loose monetary policy, nor has it changed the prospects or the expected
the timing of hikes of the central bank's benchmark deposit and lending
rates. It helps the Central bank continue to control the pace and amount of
credit supply.
And the decision to raise the proportion of deposits that banks must hold
the first time since June 2008 in an effort to drain excess cash from the
financial system. Earlier in the month, the central bank raised the interest
rate on its three-month bills for the first time since August 13 and has
The reality is that liquidity remains very ample in the Chinese banking
system; and credit has to remain strong in China this year to finish the on-
going projects.32 By moving now to tighten loose lending and deal with
adopted during the global crisis, the central bank has achieved the goal of
With the announcement of curbing lending, China stocks drop 2-3 percent,
led by bank shares. Worries over the impact of lending curbs knocked
Shanghai's benchmark index .SSEC down 2.7 percent, weighed on the rest
Shares of Bank of China and China Construction Bank traded in Hong Kong
33
tumbled 4 percent.
Lending in the first 10 days of 2010 was strong, after domestic media said
that banks dished out 600 billion yuan ($87.9 billion) in new loans in the
first week of the year alone. Some economists estimate banks have
already lent over 1 trillion yuan so far this year. Worries that the Chinese
32
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/china-move-forces-
banks-to-curb-lending/article1428847/
33
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20100120-
193196.html
monetary policy sent shudders through global stock, commodity and
Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars – all took an immediate hit,
as oil, gold and copper fell. And stocks suffered losses, as fears mounted
that the 10-month rally could come unglued. U.S. Treasuries climbed,
Losses were heaviest in Hong Kong and mainland China while benchmarks
in other markets fell about 1.5 percent or less. Oil dropped to near $80 a
barrel while the dollar was slightly higher against the yen and a tad lower
banks must hold on reserve, but most of the latest measures haven't been
stock index has fallen 9% so far this year, and concerns about credit policy
The news pushed the dollar higher, and oil and gold lower. That in turn hit
the euro, which was already under pressure from controversy surrounding
granted SOEs 84 percent of total bank loans, even though they only
Large firms are so flush with credit that they have started punting on
credit that they pay double the legal lending rate for unofficial loans which
In late November 2007, the People’s Bank of China (PBC), which is the
central bank, orally requested all banks with RMB licences to curb their
RMB lending over the long term to cool the economy and control inflation.
of liquid assets and thus, their short term solvency largely depends on
likely have more impact on the credit liquidity of SMEs. The new loan
curbing policy has capped a monthly ceiling of 900 billion yuan, although
the total credit supply is still believed to be sufficient, loans flowing to the
private sector may reduce and private enterprises could be the first to feel
the pinch.35
34
Wei Gu, Rebalance China’s two financing legs,Reuters,The Great Debate, JULY30,2009.
HTTP://BLOGS.REUTERS.COM/GREAT-DEBATE/2009/07/30/REBALANCE-CHINAS-TWO-
FINANCING-LEGS/
35
By Mao Lijun and Wang Bo (China Daily),Lending caps to reduce liquidity,2010-01-21
09:14
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-01/21/content_9354045.htm
Limiting loans for SOEs and SMEs, however, may also force the less
or else they will have to face the risk of shutting down. Financial analysts
and economists of China believed that over the next five years, this
annually.36
While controlling lending to both SMEs and SOEs also forces the central
37
ICBC to curb property loans, China Economic Net,2010-02-09 08:30,
http://en.ce.cn/subject/chinamarkets/marketpic/201002/09/t20100209_20943553.shtml
than 70% of both credits to enterprises and household deposits. From the
late 1970s to the late 1990s, the financing responsibility for large SOEs
shifted from the fiscal budget to these SOBs. During this period, fiscal
revenues to GDP fell from 30% to 12% while bank loans to GDP increased
38
from 50% to 120%.
increased by six times and, in the mid-1990s, it was roughly half of the
SOEs fell sharply and, from 1996, the consolidated state sector became a
net loss-maker. As a result, SOBs were often forced to extend new loans to
illiquid SOEs.
economy and created runaway inflation. Domestic credit grew at the rate
of 30% per year between 1991 and 1995, a rate significantly higher than
39
the average growth rate of 21.3% in the 1980s. During that same period
development that was far beyond the limits of the country's demands.
Many of the problem loans that now plague China's banks were created by
the credit boom in the 1990s and by subsequent asset price NPLs are the
38
Michael Geiger , Monetary Policy in China (1994-2004): Targets, Instruments and their Effectiveness,
WürzburgEconomic Papers No. 68, April 2006, Universität Würzburg
http://www.wifak.uni-wuerzburg.de/wilan/wifak/vwl/vwl1/wepdownload/wep68.pdf
39
Non-performing loan resolution in China. (Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management).
Real Estate Issues,22-SEP-02 , http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-2771962/Non-
performing-loan-resolution-in.html
By the mid-1990s, over one-half of SOEs were making losses and about
all four remain highly liquid because of their dominant share of household
deposits in an economy with a high savings rate and few competing assets
to deal with the bad loans problem culminating in the creation of four
institutions to deal with bad loans originated before 1996 that totaled 19%
of 1999 GDP. AMCs are charged with both the disposal of assets and the
are the Ministry of Finance and the People’s Bank of China (PBC), the
central bank.
which more directly based credit and lending policies on the government's
order to control the financial sectors liquidity. At first, the officials set
different reserve obligations for the different deposits with regard to their
origin and the institution actual holding the reserves. In 1985 the PBC
combined all different reserve requirements and set one minimum reserve
requirement at 10 per cent. But only since 1998 the instrument of the
used. That year also marks the time when the PBC shift its monetary
policy from direct control to more indirect control and made open market
Since then, the reserve requirement ratio has undergone four major
21, 2003 the ratio was adjusted to 7 percent for all financial institutions
except the rural and urban credit cooperatives, which were still subject to
6 percent reserve requirement (cf. Wei, 1999: 145 f.; PBC, 2000; and PBC,
2003c).
The Chinese reserve requirement regime has two particular features: First,
Schlotthauer (2003), during the 1990s the interest paid on the reserves
was so high that there have been years where the dominant strategy of a
Targeted and real values for domestic loan increases in China, 1998-
2004
Year Target growth (%) Actual growth (%)
1998 12.7 15.5
1999 15.7 8.3
2000 11.7 6.0
2001 13.1 13.0
2002 11.6 16.9
2003 13.7 21.1
2004 16.4 11.6
Source: Own calculations, based on data from PBC, 2001; PBC, 2003b; PBC, 2004a; PBC Statistics
Database Online; and Xie, 2004a: 2.
Note: Target values are usually published in billion RMB. Using the data of total domestic loan
increases the target is converted into a percentage growth target.
Although the 1990s saw many reform efforts, mechanisms to control risk
have not yet been created since the central bank's 'window guidance'
40
Miriam (Penny) Milsom, Monetary Policy in China, January 13, 2003,
http://www.sixsmart.com/SSPapers/pmw8.htm