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170E Phan Dang Luu Street, Ward 3, The new policy (known as Circular No 22/2013-BKHCN, which
Phu Nhuan District, HCMC
was valid on June 1 2014) may help PNJ to dominate jewelry
Fine gold (bar), gold and silver jewelry, market which is highly fragmented. According to this circular, all
Core revenue
oil and gas (ended since 4Q2014)
jewelry manufacturers have to stamp the purity of gold on each
Raw gold and silver materials, gems,
Main cost
gemstones, diamonds
gold jewelry to terminate the cheating business in gold
Competitive Biggest player in Vietnam jewelry jewelry market in all over Viet Nam.
Advantage industry, huge store chain
Main risk
Lost some key persons in design team We expect that net revenue 2014 of PNJ will reach VND8.328 bn
and manufacturing team to competitors
(-6,6 yoy) due to the downtrend of global gold price, however, net
Shareholders Rate (%) profit 2014 of PNJ will reach VND261 bn (+55% yoy) thanks to
Ms. Cao Thi Ngc Dung the increasing of retail business in both gold segment and silver
10,14%
(chairwomen and CEO) segment and the unusual profit more than VND36 bn from the
Vietnam Azalea Fund Limited (Mekong
Capital) transfer SFC. Net revenue 2015 is expected to decrease 5%
Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited compared to 2014 given that PNJ will no longer consolidate SFC
6,57%
(Dragon Capital) result in their consolidated financial statement, however, we
Route One Investment Company 5,04%
HSX: PNJ
Deutsche Bank AG & Deutsche Asset expect that net profit 2015 of PNJ will reach VND319 bn (+21%
4,83%
Management (Asia) Ltd
yoy).
VOF Investment Limited (VinaCapital) 3,94%
Other internal shareholders 3,9% The growth potential of Viet Nam jewelry market is quite
large. In 16 years from 1997 to 2013, Viet Nam has imported
Other local shareholders >30%
more than 326 tonnes of gold jewelry and more than 890 tonnes
Other foreign shareholders <10% of gold bar that cost around $48 bn. The annual demand of gold
product is about 19 tonnes of gold jewelry and 52 tonnes of gold
Main competitors
bar.
Doji Jewelry Corporation (Doji)
(unclear information) PNJ has recently adjusted their sale policies with several added
Sai Gon Jewelry Company Limited (SJC) incentive terms to increase their market share. Customers may
(unclear information) reimburse PNJ jewelries (excluding silver jewelries) and will be
Bao Tin Minh Chau Jewelry and Gemstone Co.Ltd
refund at least 70% of the invoice at any time after purchasing.
(unclear information) For some special products, the refund rate may be at 90% to
98% of the invoice. Compared to the refund ate of other
Sacombank Jewelry (SBJ)
competitors that is at most 70% of the invoice, we believe that
this is ambitious move of PNJ to acquire more market share from
all other competitors thanks to their financial strength and their
huge sales network. (More details).
PNJ has been the only listed jewelry company in Viet Nam.
PNJs foreign ownership has been always full with the presence
of almost foreign financial institutions in Viet Nam as Dragon
Capital, VinaCapital, Mekong Capital, Vietnam Holdings
However, the liquidity of PNJ stock is quite low given that the
stock price is not fluctuated significantly for a long time and the
ownership is quite solid (internal shareholders own more than
40% of share capital).
Source: FPTS
Investment Risks
The biggest risk of PNJ is the loss of key designers and key
jewelry artisans to their competitors as Doji or SJC. However, we
believe that PNJ has well controlled this risk (See more details).
The average PER of other major jewelry companies in the world is 13,6 after being discounted using country risk
discount method. Based on this result, the fair value for PNJ stock is expected VND47.000 per share.
PNJ was rated as the 3rd largest jewelry manufacturer in the world by
production capacity by Plimsoll, an individual UK organization. In
2012, PNJ inaugurated their new jewelry factory in HCMC that is still
the biggest one in Viet Nam until now. The current production
capacity of this factory is more than 4 billion units (8 times higher than
the one of SJC the 2nd largest jewelry manufacturer in Viet Nam).
Besides, PNJ was the 3rd biggest retailer in Viet Nam (after Saigon
Co.op supermarket and NguyenKim electronic appliance) before
downgrading to the 6th position after BigC supermarket, SJC and
Mobile World.
PNJ is the only listed jewelry company in Viet Nam and is also the
biggest outsourcing jewelry manufacturer for several other jewelry
and gemstone companies in Viet Nam.
The certification ISO 17205 is issued by ISO Gemstone inspection service: PNJ was the first Vietnamese
(International Organization Standardization) for the jewelry company that had the certification ISO 17025. Besides, PNJ
inspection companies that have the ability to test, to is currently applying the classification and inspection standards
inspect and to issue trusted technical certification.
equivalent to those of GIA (Gemological Institution of America the
Therefore, PNJs gemstone certification is accepted in
all over the world.
leading gemstone inspection organization in the world).
Chart 1: Stats of net revenue and profit of PNJ (parent company) in the period of 1989 - 2013
20.000 300
Net revenue and net profit increased
18.000 strongly between 2008 and 2012 17.335
thanks to the uptrend of gold price,
then turned back sharply after the 250
16.000
downtrend of gold price and the
intervention of the State Bank of 13.007
14.000 Vietnam, in which they took the
monopoly role in gold market 200
12.000
9.625
10.000 150
7.604
8.000 Net revenue Net profit
6.428
100
6.000
4.000 3.501
1.801 50
2.233
2.000 1.254
724 871
71 217 142 198 131 257 213 347 183 203 218 377 447
- -
(*) See more details about the historical price of gold by various currency (USD, VND and CNY) and the
Source: PNJ, FPTS
correlation between these factors and PNJs operating result during years at Appendix 2 (Click here)
For raw gold material: Due to the restricted import gold policy of
the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV), the main raw material source of
PNJ is come from the procurement from local customers or from
Raw
materials
Origin Supplier local suppliers that collect raw material from various sources. These
Local customers raw gold materials are separated into 2 groups: SJC group (gold
Gold material Viet Nam
Local suppliers bar with brand name SJC that the commercial price is unified in all
Silver material
Belgium Metalor over Viet Nam and is adjusted exclusively by SBV) is used for gold
Viet Nam Other
trading activities; non-SJC group or unbranded gold bar are
Gold bar Viet Nam Local customers
bought with the price of fine gold (99,99%) that is lower significantly
Hong Kong RMC
Gemstones than the SJC gold (~15%) and nearly equal to the international
Thailand Creative Gems (BKK) price. The second group is currently main raw material for gold
Hong Kong Yakubov jewelry of PNJ thanks to its low cost. According to our research, the
Hong Kong Forte supplying source for this kind of gold material in Viet Nam is quite
Diamond
Belgium Fischler large, thus, the risk of lacking raw gold material of PNJ is negligible.
Viet Nam Local customers
For silver raw material: Given that the import activities of this
material is not restricted, PNJ has imported raw silver material from
some Belgium suppliers.
Designing processes: Plan in advance the design project for the next following
years.
1. Hand-sketching.
2. Using specialized software to complement hand- Annually host PNJ jewelry design contest in all over
sketching and to create 3D model (using Cad-cam Viet Nam to find potential designer..
modelling one of the most popular design method Scholarship funding for potential students in design
thanks to its accuracy and efficiency). Some popular
specialized software are Jewel CAD, Rhinoceros (Rhino) faculty of famous universities to attract these talents
and Matrix. after graduation.
3. The prototype after being approved by the R&D Take part in local and international jewelry exhibition
committee and the product committee will transfer to the
product department and sales department that decide the
and contest to catch up new fashion trend and to brain
production scale based on the market demand and the storm for new creative ideas.
marketing strategy of PNJ. Discuss with product department and sales department
using analyzed data about market demand, design,
style to identify the current trend and build up the new
products R&D project.
The prototype of new products has to pass several
inspection test before being approved by product
committee (PC) and launched to mass production.
Jewelers are the person who directly make various kind of PNJs jewelers are freshmen and are trained from beginning. PNJ
jewelry as ring, earring, bangle, necklet, medal using
always follow-up these jewelers to detect the excellent ones to
precious metal as gold, silver, platinum, bronze following the
available design model. Each jeweler is in charge one of enhance their craftsmanship through advanced training courses
numerous processes in whole jewelry production as: honing and also increase their remuneration to ensure their dedication for
and assembling jewelry parts together, attaching gemstones
the company. Currently, PNJ have 800 jewelers with the annual
in an assembled jewelry or cutting, grinding and polishing
gemstones. renovation rate around 10%. Among these jewelers, more than 160
senior ones are classified as jewelry artisan that is equal to 70%
High-level jeweler, aka jewelry expert, is classified as of total jewelry artisan of Viet Nam.
jewelry artisan who cannot only do many processes
professionally but also may create new designs and may
satisfy many difficult requirement of customers. They can Losing high-level employees (especially jewelry artisan) to other
disassembly many kind of jewelries (gold, silver, competitors is a regular risk of PNJ during years. To minimize this risk,
gemstones) into many individual parts before adjusting and PNJ has applied two main methods, which are the remuneration policy
re-assembling them into a new perfect jewelry. Moreover,
they can engrave many kind of motifs and patterns in jewelry
corresponding with the level and experience (including ESOP
to increase its sophistication and perfection. policy) and the corporate culture policy that help to tighten the
relationship between employee and the company. We admit that
Source: nghekimhoan.wordpress.com PNJ is well controlling this risk.
4. Distribution:
Net revenue by region of PNJ Gold a) Distributing wholesale jewelry: wholesale customers will receive
directly their products at PNJ or PNJ will transport to them under
Southeast (including HCMC)
the protection of police.
77%
For the customers who want to reimburse their products, PNJ All processes in inventory management and selling activities are
have applied the most attractive refund policy in Viet Nam
jewelry market (more details [VIE]) with some key points as executed through the ERP system named Xman with two
below: associated modules. Therefore, PNJs leaders and other
Discount 5 10% value on bill within 3 days. departments can access real-time to the operating result of each
Discount at most 30% value on bill with no time store that help to optimize the management effectiveness and risk
limited.
Discount 2 7% value on bill for diamonds. controlling. Moreover, this ERP system can also support for the
Discount 20% value of jewelry coat. promotional programs, sales campaigns, sales-off strategy of PNJ.
No imbursement for silver jewelry due to the high
chemical sensitive (denaturation) of this metal.
Details about the ERP system of PNJ
Management processes
The ERP system of PNJ named Xman (eXtra Management) is
of the ERP Xman system
developed based on the 3-tier client/server architecture. More
precisely, the end user interface (used for PNJs departments and
even for the board of director) is totally based on web platform. End
users may use this software through usual web browser without any
installation. This system can ensure the highest secure level by
using the right decentralization system and the ability of load
balancing (which ensures the stability and minimize the overload
situation of whole system) and the high accuracy by using uniformly
in the overall internal system.
Main competitors
Retail network of PNJ
In the rest regions, PNJ hold the leading position above Doji and
SJC. According to our estimation, the current production capacity
of PNJ is 4 times higher than the total capacity of both SJC and
Doji. More over, we find that in the recent 2 years, at some key
selling points of PNJ (that are deeply researched about customers
demand, traffic density, and consumption taste), Doji rooted their
Source: PNJ
The Circular No. 22, the turning point of Viet Nam jewelry market
and the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for PNJ
In the other side, major manufacturers as PNJ, SJC, and Doji are
enjoying numerous benefits from the Circular 22. Especially, PNJ is
the most supported player in Viet Nam market thanks to their
biggest market share and outstanding production scale compared
with their two main competitors.
Chart 2: Net revenue and Net profit after tax forecasted for the period of 2007 2022
23 200%
VND Thousand billion
20
18
18 150%
18
15
14
13 100%
13 12
10 9 10
9 50%
7 8 8
8
0%
4
3 2
0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 -50%
0,1 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,5
(2) -100%
Net revenue Net profit Revenue growth rate Net profit growth rate
We predict that the COGS will take the major proportion in PNJs
Average cost structure cost structure in the period of 2014 2022, at 87% of net revenue.
in the period of 2014 2022
Due to the high frequency of gold price volatility, the days of
account receivable and days of account payable of PNJ are quite
low, at 2,7 days and 3,6 days, respectively.
COGS; 87%
The proportion of selling and G&A expenses of PNJ were at 2,9%
and 1,3% of net revenue in 2013. Total operating expense of PNJ
was only 4,2%, lower than the average rate of other major jewelry
manufacturers in the world (See more details at Appendix 4).
Therefore, for the period of 2014 2022, we estimate that the
Financial
expenses; Sales expenses; operating expense rate of PNJ will increase slightly each year and
2,9%
1,0% G&A expenses; will reach 10,4% of net revenue in 2022, especially for the selling
1,3% expense that is concordant with the expansion of retail activities of
PNJ in the next years.
Total assets and total equity structure for the period of 2014
2022
Total assets and total equity structure for the Commonly, the PNJs total asset will change noticeably by
period of 2014 2022 increasing the proportion of current assets (at an average rate of
100% 65% of total assets) and decreasing the proportion of non-current
90% 48% 56% assets to the average rate of 35% of total assets). In this period,
80%
70% PNJ will have no major capital expenditure amount and will have
60% 52% 44% only the annual investment in upgrading current production line and
50% some new equipment, given the fact that current used capacity of
40% 35% 33%
PNJs factory is only 50%.
30%
20% 67%
65%
10% The total equity structure of PNJ will be changing by decreasing
0% slightly the proportion of total liabilities and increasing the
proportion of owner equity given that PNJ will have no any long-
term loan in the period of 2014 2022 and their short-term loan will
Short-term assets Long-term assets
be only used for their working capital. The balance between total
Total liabilities Owner's equity
liabilities and total owner equity is expected at 44% - 56%.
According to Italian Trade Agency (ITA), in the period of 2009 2011, total value of jewelry imported in Viet Nam was
USD71 mn, USD83 mn, and USD214mn, respectively. Remarkably, total value of jewelry imported in Viet Nam tripled in
2011 given that local jewelry companies boosted their imported raw gold material inventories before the validation of the
Decision No 24/ND-CP issued by the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) on June 25th 2012. Then, the value of raw gold
imported was back to the normal amount at USD69 mn while the SBV took the monopoly control on gold bar market.
Commonly, Viet Nam is belong to the medium income per capita group and the income per capita of Vietnamese people
has been increased impressively, especially in some center of economic as HCMC, Hanoi, Da Nang, Binh Duong The
demand of young generation and high-income consumers in luxury and delicate jewelries, that help to show off their
characteristic or to honor themselves, are increased remarkably. Noticeably, the imported jewelry group (excluding
unbranded and cheap imported jewelry from China) has not deep penetrated in Viet Nam market and the brand recognition
of this group is still low. Therefore, Vietnamese people may easily try new jewelry brands that are still novel for local
customers. More precisely, the imported jewelry group took a small proportion at 6% of total domestic jewelry
consumption value compared with the rate of 94% of local produced jewelry group.
Thanks to the absolute advantage in low labor cost and incentive import tax rate (5%), China has been the top jewelry
exporter in Viet Nam and took the major market share at 48% (the total value of imported jewelry from China was more
than USD32 mn in 2012). The market share and import tax rate of the rest countries are as follow: South Korea (12,2%
of market share, import tax rate at 15%), Japan (10,9% of market share, import tax rate at 19%), Hong Kong (9,1% of
market share, import tax rate at 5%). Excluding ASEAN members and China, the rest countries cannot compete by
commercial price with jewelry of China and Hong Kong due to the high import tax rate (15% - 21%), therefore, these
countries have compete by focusing on the quality and the sophistication and the diversity of jewelries that mainly aim to
the mid-income segment in Viet Nam.
Besides, the luxury jewelries imported from European countries have its own position although its market share is small
(8%). This group are imported mainly from French, Italia, Switzerland and is classified at luxury segment with some
famous brand name as Cartier and Korloff (French), Bvlgari and Celine (Italia), Chopard (Switzerland). The import tax
rate for this group has been quite high, from 25% to 30%, that also known as the main barrier of penetration in Viet Nam
market.
US
1% Japan
11%
Switzerland
1%
Germany
1%
Italia
2% Thailand Hong Kong
3% Singapore French Malaysia 9%
4% 4% 4%
After being adjusted follow Viet Nams inflation, gold price in VND has changed closely with global price. Before 2011,
domestic gold price was always lower than then global price; however, after being monopoly controlled by the State Bank
of Viet Nam due to various domestic volatilities in 2009 2011, the domestic gold price has been stable and still higher
than the global price.
Chart 5: Historical correlation between gold price by USD and by VND (unit: troy ounce)
40 2.000
USD
Million VND
35 1.800
Quarterly gold price by VND ( inflation and exchange rate adjusted)
1.600
30 Quarterly gold price by USD ( inflation and exchange rate adjusted)
1.400
25 1.200
20 1.000
15 800
600
10
400
5 Source; FPTS, WGC 200
0 0
Q4 1989
Q3 1990
Q2 1991
Q1 1992
Q4 1992
Q3 1993
Q2 1994
Q1 1995
Q4 1995
Q3 1996
Q2 1997
Q1 1998
Q4 1998
Q3 1999
Q2 2000
Q1 2001
Q4 2001
Q3 2002
Q2 2003
Q1 2004
Q4 2004
Q3 2005
Q2 2006
Q1 2007
Q4 2007
Q3 2008
Q2 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2012
Q1 2013
Q4 2013
Q3 2014
Comparing the historical volatility of domestic gold price in VND with the one in CNY, we can recognize that
the gold price in China was always higher than the one in Viet Nam after China devaluated their currency in
the end of 1993. However, after the intervention of SBV in gold market in 2011, the gold price in Viet Nam has
been the highest one in the world.
Chart 5: Historical correlation between gold price by CNY and by VND (unit: troy ounce)
40 12.000
CNY
Million VND
15
4.000
10
Source: FPTS, WGC
2.000
5
0 0
Q4 1989
Q3 1990
Q2 1991
Q1 1992
Q4 1992
Q3 1993
Q2 1994
Q1 1995
Q4 1995
Q3 1996
Q2 1997
Q1 1998
Q4 1998
Q3 1999
Q2 2000
Q1 2001
Q4 2001
Q3 2002
Q2 2003
Q1 2004
Q4 2004
Q3 2005
Q2 2006
Q1 2007
Q4 2007
Q3 2008
Q2 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2012
Q1 2013
Q4 2013
Q3 2014
Appendix 3: Gold jewelry and gold bar demand of Viet Nam for years
According to stats of World Gold Council (WGC) and FPTS research, Viet Nam is the 7th biggest gold importer in the
world. Among these major importers, Viet Nam has been the countries that have the lowest correlation rate between gold
jewelry imported and total gold imported (13%), lower than the rate of China and India (63%) and the global rate at 56%.
This comparison is excluded Thailand, Germany and Switzerland given that these three countries have only used imported
gold for their production industries (jewelry production for export in Thailand; mechanical and precision engineering in
Germany; watch production in Switzerland).
Chart 7: Gold jewelry, gold bar and coin consumption in the world in 2013 (by tonnes)
Tonnes of gold
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000 Gold jewelry imported
In 2013, Viet Nam imported 12 tonnes of
2.500 gold jewelry (+4% yoy) and 80 tonnes of Gold bar and coin imported
2.000 gold bar and coin (+23% yoy) that take
1.500 2,4% of total world demand.
1.000
500
0
According to FPTS research, in the period of 1997 2013, Viet Nam has annually imported an average amount of 19,2
tonnes of gold jewelry that cost USD563 mn and the total accumulative imported amount in 16 years was about 326
tonnes. Noticeably, in this period, Viet Nam has annually imported an average amount of 52 tonnes of gold bar
and raw gold material that cost around USD1,5 bn, the total accumulative amount in 16 years was 890 tonnes
that cost more than USD25,8 bn. Therefore, considering the imported side, Viet Nam has totally imported more than
1.216 tonnes of gold that cost more than USD48,1 bn in the recent 16 years.
Chart 8: Gold jewelry, gold bar and coin consumption in the world in 2013 (by USD)
55
Billion USD
45
Gold jewelry imported
35 In 2013, Viet Nam imported USD554 mn Gold bar and coin imported
gold jewelry (-1% yoy) and USD3,6 bn
25 gold bar and coin (+2,7% yoy) that make
Viet Nam becoming the 7th biggest gold
15 importer in the world.
-5
Appendix 4: Stats about financial indicators of major jewelry manufacturers in the world
We compare PNJ with some other similar jewelry manufacturers in the world as Chow Tai Fook (Hong Kong), Lao Feng
Xiang (Shanghai), Tiffany (US), Signet (UK), Pandora (India), Mot Hennesy Louis Vuitton (LVMH French) do identify
the level of development and the growth prospect of PNJ in the near future.
90 100%
77
Billuon Hong Kong Dollar (HKD)
0 -20%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: FPTS, Bloomberg
Chow Tai Fook is the biggest jewelry manufacturer and retailer headquartered in Hong Kong, established in 1966 and
listed in 2011. This company is holding the biggest market share in Greater China, including: China (12,6%), Hong Kong
and Macau (20,1%).
Market capitalization (in VND): VND278.000 bn. CAGR of revenue from 2009 to 2013: 33,3%.
Average operating expenses on sales (sales + G&A): 14,8%. Average gross profit margin: 28,4%.
35 32,8 450%
Billion CNY
30 350%
25,4 Lao Feng Xiang
25 (600612 CH Equity)
21,0 250%
Net revenue
20
150% NPAT
15 Revenue growth rate
18,3%
50%
10 NPAT growth rate
-5 -250%
Lao Feng Xiang has headquartered in Shanghai, established in 1848. After 150 years of development, Lao Feng Xiang
is now the 2nd jewelry manufacturer and retailer in China (after Chow Tai Fook) with the market share in China (excluding
Hong Kong and Macau) at 9%.
Market capitalization (in VND): VND45.347 bn. CAGR of revenue from 1992 to 2013: 33%.
Average operating expenses on sales (sales + G&A): 8,6%. Average gross profit margin: 4,9%.
5 200%
Billion USD
4,0
4 3,8
39% 59,3%
100%
4
Tiffany
3 0% TIF US Equity
3 Net revenue
-100%
2 NPAT
Tiffany is an US jewelry manufacturer headquartered in New York, established in 1837, listed in 1987. Their main
products are jewelry, silver 925, delft, perfume, watch, accessories, leather products and especially diamonds.
Market capitalization (in VND): VND254.023 bn. CAGR of revenue from 1987 to 2013: 12,1%.
Average operating expenses on sales (sales + G&A): 40%. Average gross profit margin: 54%.
65%
Billion Euro
35 70%
30 60%
49%
15 30% NPAT
0 0%
Mot Hennesy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) is the biggest corporation in the world in luxury jewelry and luxury fashion with the
total market cap more than USD65 bn. This corporate has headquartered in Paris and has more than 60 subsidiary
companies, established in 1987 after the acquisition between Louis Vuitton and Mot Hennesy.
Market capitalization (in VND): VND1.738.044 bn. CAGR of revenue from 1987 to 201: 10,3%.
Average operating expenses on sales (sales + G&A): 43,4%. Average gross profit margin: 64,3%.
Appendix 5: Some information about several kinds of gold and the distinction method
1. Karat is the unit used to measure the purity of gold in jewelry divided in 24 levels. The 18k gold has the purity of gold
at 18/24 = 75%, the 24k gold (a.k.a fine gold) has the purity of gold at 24/24 99,99%. Excluding fine gold, all the rest
kinds of gold are the combination of gold and other metals (a.k.a alloys) that may be silver, zinc, palladium, copper,
platinum) to create more chemical and useful physical characteristic for production and preservation as:
Each major jewelry manufacturer (including PNJ) has deep invested in researching and developing their own alloys.
The formula of these alloys is the top secret of each manufacturer that may affect to their reputation and position in
market. Some popular metals used to create alloys are: Silver (mostly known as 925 silver which have the purity of
silver at 92,5% and used to increase the stiffness and decrease the abrasion); Copper (used to increase the stiffness
and add the red/pink color in gold jewelry); Zinc (used to anti oxidize and decrease the melting temperature); Nickel
(used to discolor and increase the stiffness); Palladium (used to discolor); Cobalt, Mangan, Iridium (used to smooth
the metal seed in demetalization process); Silicon, phosphorus (used to anti oxidize)
Exchange Vietnamese Troy (*): This unit, which is also known as troy ounce, is belong
Gram
method Ounce (V.O0 Ounce (*)
to SI measurement system (International System) applied
1 Ounce (*) = 0,8293 31,103
widely for global gold sector. Besides, the U.K has their
1 Gram = 0,0266 0,0325 own measurement system in which 1 UK ounce is equal
1 V.O = 37,50 1,2057 to 28,3495 gram.
Source: PNJ, FPTS
Appendix 6: Stats and financial forecast for the period of 2013 2022
unit: VND bn
Incom e statem ent 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 Balance sheet 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2022
Net incom e 8.914 8.328 7.941 9.006 11.715 15.337 20.035 Assets
- COGS -8.244 -7.555 -7.024 -7.867 -9.998 -12.835 -16.508 + Cash & equivalent 508 788 832 740 639 531 293 (328)
Gross profit 670 773 917 1.139 1.717 2.501 3.526 + Short-term investments - - - - - - - -
- Sales & Marketing -262 -295 -329 -427 -696 -1096 -1672 + Accounts receivable 76 61 58 66 75 85 112 146
- General & Adm in -113 -106 -109 -133 -196 -287 -415 + Inventories 1.087 1.297 1.321 1.600 1.926 2.305 3.244 4.458
Operating profit 294 372 479 580 825 1.119 1.440 + Other current assets 46 43 41 47 53 61 80 104
+ Financial profit (61) (21) (54) (62) (80) (105) (137) Total current assets 1.718 2.189 2.252 2.453 2.693 2.982 3.728 4.380
+ Other profit 1 - - - - - - + Gross fixed assets 498 518 543 573 605 639 705 1.097
EBIT 234 351 424 518 745 1.013 1.302 - Accum. depreciation -118 -139 -163 -191 -223 -258 -344 -454
- Interest expense - - - - - 2,00 4,00 + Long-term investments 590 590 590 590 590 590 590 590
EBT 234 351 424 518 745 1.015 1.306 + Other long-term assets 14 142 135 153 174 199 261 341
- Incom e tax expense -64 -77 -93 -104 -149 -203 -260 Total long-term assets 1.239 1.334 1.353 1.401 1.454 1.513 1.640 2.112
EAT 169 274 331 414 596 813 1.046 Total Assets 2.957 3.523 3.605 3.854 4.148 4.496 5.368 6.492
PAT (less m inority interests) 163 264 319 400 575 782 1.005
EPS (VND per share) 2.153 3.496 4.225 5.288 7.605 10.351 13.300 Liabilities & Equity 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2022
EBITDA 257 372 448 545 780 1059 1360 + Accounts payable 1.415 1.922 1.868 1.947 2.036 2.139 2.393 2.710
Depreciation 24 21 24 28 35 46 58 + Short-term borrow ings 1.164 1.133 1.104 1.071 1.033 989 883 744
Net incom e grow th rate 33% -7% -5% 13% 14% 14% 14% + Other ST liabilities 252 789 764 876 1.003 1.150 1.510 1.966
Operating profit grow th rate -36% 62% 21% 25% 19% 16% 13% Current liabilities 1.551 2.057 2.003 2.082 2.171 2.275 2.528 2.845
EBIT grow th rate - 27% 29% 21% 19% 16% 13% + Long-term debt 135,20 135,20 135,20 135,20 135,20 135,20 135,20 135,20
EPS grow th rate -39% 62% 21% 25% 19% 16% 13% + Other LT liabilities - - - - - - 2,00 4,00
Total LT liabilities 135 135 135 135 135 135 137 139
Profitability ratios 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 Total Liabilities 1.551 2.057 2.003 2.082 2.171 2.275 2.528 2.845
Gross m argin 8% 9% 12% 13% 15% 16% 18% + Total preferred equity - - - - - - 2,00 4,00
PAT m argin 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% + Additional paid in capital 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105
ROE DuPont 12% 19% 21% 24% 27% 29% 29% + Share capital 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756
ROA DuPont 6% 8% 9% 11% 13% 15% 16% + Retained earnings 274 307 348 399 460 534 719 961
EBIT Margin 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% + Minority interest 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88
PAT/PBT 70% 75% 75% 77% 77% 77% 77% Total equity 1.318 1.431 1.566 1.736 1.941 2.185 2.805 3.611
PBT/EBIT 80% 94% 89% 89% 90% 91% 90% Liabilities & equity 2.957 3.575 3.657 3.906 4.200 4.548 5.421 6.544
Asset turnover 3,01x 2,36x 2,20x 2,34x 2,61x 2,86x 3,09x
Leverage ratio 2,24x 2,46x 2,30x 2,22x 2,06x 1,91x 1,80x Cash flow 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2022
ROIC 6% 11% 12% 15% 19% 22% 24% Beginning cash 469 508 999 1.139 1.189 1.258 1.474 1.805
Profit after tax 233 351 424 518 625 745 1.013 1.302
Efficiency ratios 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 + Depreciation 24 21 24 28 32 35 46 58
Days inventory on hand 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 + Other non-cash adjust. 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Days AR outstanding 42 63 69 74 84 92 99 + Changes in non-cash -353 343 -46 -174 -209 -243 -324 -422
Days AP outstanding 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Cash from Operations -25 715 403 371 448 537 735 938
Cash conversion cycle 41 56 67 67 76 84 90 + Disposal fixed assets 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inventory turnover 7,58 5,82 5,32 4,92 4,34 3,96 3,70 + Capex -57 -41 -49 -58 -64 -69 -78 -422
+ Change in investments 154 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquidity/Solvency 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020 2022 + Other investments 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Current ratio 1,2 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,6 Cash from Investing 119 -41 -49 -58 -64 -69 -78 -422
Quick ratio 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 (0,0) + Dividends paid -94 -152 -184 -230 -278 -331 -450 -578
Cash ratio 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,2 0,1 (0,1) + Change in capital 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Debt-to-assets 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 + Change in ST debt 3 -31 -29 -33 -38 -43 -57 -74
Debt-to-capital 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,2 + Change in LT debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Debt-to-equity 1,0 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,3 0,2 + Other financing act. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Short-term debt to equity 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,1 Cash from Financing -55 -183 -213 -263 -315 -374 -507 -652
Long-term debt to equity 0,0 - - - - - - Net changes in cash 39 491 140 50 69 94 151 -136
Ending cash 469 508 999 1.139 1.189 1.258 1.474 1.805
RECOMMEND EXPLANATION
This recommendation based on the difference between targeted value and market value of each stocks in order to provide
appropriate information for investors in 12-month investment period from recommend day.
The expected at 18% is estimated based on 12-month government bond rate in addition to market risk premium in Vietnam.
Recommendation Explanation
12 months period
Buy If targeted price is higher than market price 18%
Increase If targeted price is higher than market price about 7%-18%
Monitor If targeted price compared to market price within -7%-7%
Decrease If targeted price is lower than market price from -7% to -18%
Sell If targeted price is lower than market price -18%
Disclaimer of Liability
All of information and analysis on this repost made by FPTS based on information sources that the company provides to us reliable
resources, available and legal. Except for information about FPTS, we are not guarantee about the correctness or completeness of this
information.
Investors who are using this report need to note that all of comments on this report only the subjective opinions of FPTS. The investors
have to take their own responsibility about their decision when using this report.
FPTS may base on all information in this report or others to make decision for us, but not have any claim on legal of given information.
At making this analysis report time, FPTS and analyst do not hold any PNJ stock.
All related information to others stocks or this stock can be seen on http://fpts.com.vn/EN/ or provide when having
acquirement.