Accepted Manuscript

An investigation of the feasibility of proposed solutions for water sustainability and

security in water-stressed environment

Adewale Giwa, Abdallah Dindi

PII: S0959-6526(17)31563-9

DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.120

Reference: JCLP 10123

To appear in: Journal of Cleaner Production

Received Date: 15 January 2017

Revised Date: 15 July 2017

Accepted Date: 16 July 2017

Please cite this article as: Adewale Giwa, Abdallah Dindi, An investigation of the feasibility of
proposed solutions for water sustainability and security in water-stressed environment, Journal of
Cleaner Production (2017), doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.120

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 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

An investigation of the feasibility of proposed solutions for water

sustainability and security in water-stressed environment
Adewale Giwa*, Abdallah Dindi

Department of Chemical Engineering, Institute Center for Water and Environment (iWATER), Khalifa
University of Science and Technology - Masdar Institute, P.O. Box 54224, Abu Dhabi, United Arab
Emirates.

*agiwa@masdar.ac.ae; 971 (02) 810 9689

Abstract

In this paper, the possible solutions aimed at ensuring water security and sustainability in the
UAE are proposed and assessed. The proposed solutions include the introduction of cost-
reflective water price regimes, sustainable building codes, total wastewater reuse, leakage
reduction, and diversification of supply sources in terms of renewable energy-powered
desalination and cloud seeding. The feasibility of these solutions is assessed in terms of the
drivers and barriers to their implementation. From the assessments, it is observed that the
implementation of the actual cost of water (AED10.32/m3) would reduce water consumption by
expats by 5.4%. Significant reduction in water consumption by locals could also be achieved.
Domestic water savings, up to 19.8%, would be achieved by water-efficient household fixtures.
Irrigation can be achieved through complete wastewater reuse and water leakage can be reduced
to 10% through noise loggers, automated pumps, and pressure relief valves. A water
management approach that integrates these solutions is crucial and strategic to the attainment of
sustainable water balance.

Keywords: Water security; Sustainability; Water use efficiency; Cloud seeding; Photovoltaic-
powered reverse osmosis; United Arab Emirates.

1. Introduction

The United Nations (UN) requires all countries to ensure sustainable production and
consumption through resource efficiency, energy efficiency, and sustainable infrastructure by
2030. This is contained in the sustainable development goal No. 12 of the UN. Closely related to
this goal is goal No. 13 which addresses the control of climate change through sustainable
production and consumption. One of the most important products is clean water because it is
essential for the sustenance of mankind. However, many countries are water-stressed and lack
access to abundant natural freshwater sources. A country is said to be water stressed where the
countrys annual freshwater supply is less than 1,700 m3 per capita (White, 2012). A country is

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said to experience water scarcity when the countrys annual freshwater supply is less than
1,000 m3 per capita.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is among the countries facing the greatest threat to water
security in the world. According to the World Bank, the fresh water available per capita in the
UAE is 16.8 m3 (The World Bank, 2015a). The sustainable use of the UAE scarce water
supplies has been a major challenge for a long time (Bichai et al., 2016). Today, the country
finds itself in a critical situation of trying to meet its increasing water demand with a dwindling
supply due to its low rainfall and over-abstraction of groundwater resources (Gonzalez et al.,
2016; Murad et al., 2007). Although a usual response is to simply increase supply by building
more desalination plants, this solution is not efficient as the UAEs water problem is not just due
to low availability of natural water sources but also as a result of wasteful consumptive patterns
driven by the UAEs economic growth over the years (Mezher et al., 2011).

Moreover, desalination is an expensive process which has significant environmental impacts. It

requires energy, thus giving rise to large CO2 emissions. The per capita CO2 emissions in the
Gulf countries are among the highest in the world (Ashoor et al., 2016). Additionally,
desalination results in a concentrated brine waste which has the tendency to increase ocean
salinity (when discharged in the ocean) and destabilize marine ecosystems (Dawoud, 2012). The
salinity of the gulf is expected to increase on account of increasing desalination brine disposal,
higher evaporation rates caused by increasing temperatures, and reduced fresh water inputs
caused by the damming of rivers Tigris and the Euphrates that once supplied the gulf with fresh
water (Bashitialshaaer et al., 2011; Stephen and Katherine, 2017). This has led to the
introduction of a peak salt concept, which refers to the idea that, through these processes, the
salinity of gulf might reach a point at which desalination becomes prohibitively expensive (Giwa
et al., 2017; Gnel, 2016). These factors make desalination unsuitable as the sole water supply
solution in the long term and it is therefore imperative to seek other probable solutions which
would ensure water security and sustainability at lesser financial and environmental costs.

The fresh water resources in UAE consist of: internal fresh water resources, natural precipitation,
artificial recharge, and treated wastewater. Internal fresh water resources include naturally
occurring water such as surface water and groundwater. These resources are mostly consumed
for agricultural activities and irrigation in rural communities. Non-conventional water resources -
desalinated and reclaimed water - are the major sources of supply for the domestic, commercial
and industrial sectors. Some non-conventional water resources are also used for agriculture as a
replacement for poor quality groundwater (Environment Agency Abu Dhabi (EAD), 2009; Giwa
et al., 2016b). The quantity of fresh water resources in the UAE is shown in Table 1. Other input
sources such as leakage from distribution networks and deep well pumping into surficial aquifers
have been combined in artificial recharge in Table 1.

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Table 1 Freshwater resources in UAE in billion m3 per year (Food and Agricultural
Organization of the United Nations, 2015).

Fresh water resource Capacity (billion m3 per year)

Internal fresh water resources 0.150
Natural precipitation 6.521
Artificial recharge 0.061
Treated wastewater 0.118
Total Fresh water resources 6.850

The fresh water resources in the UAE are depleted through: withdrawal for agricultural,
industrial, and domestic purposes (The World Bank, 2015b); and evapotranspiration by an
average of 2.133 m per year over a total irrigated area of 920 km2 (Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, 2015a, 2015b). The groundwater depth in UAE has been
depleted up to 60 m (Shahin and Salem, 2015). The fresh water is withdrawn through the
following means (Fig. 1).

(1) Groundwater: for irrigation (forestry), irrigation (agriculture), and other municipal
applications such as amenities (Mulla, 2011; Shahin and Salem, 2015). Forestry irrigation
includes irrigation for landscaping, public parks, street plantations (Vigneswaran and
Sundaravadivel, 2009);

(2) Desalinated water: for domestic uses, artificial recharge (dams), irrigation
(agriculture), and other commercial purposes (district cooling, car washing, process heating, etc.)
(Chaudhury, 2015; Tuxford, 2013);

(3) Treated wastewater: for irrigation (forestry) and dumped treated wastewater (disposed
to surface ponds) (Dakkak, 2015; Shahin and Salem, 2015).

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Irrigation (Forestry)
0.579

Groundwater Irrigation
(Agriculture)
2.8
1.413

Other municipal
uses in aquifers
0.81

Irrigation
(agriculture)
0.076

Artificial recharge
Water withdrawal 0.061
3.998 Desalinated water
0.95 Domestic
Fresh water applications
resources Evapotranspiration
1.962 0.617
6.85
Commercial
Remaining water applications
resources 0.196
0.89
Irrigation (Forestry)
Treated 0.13
wastewater
0.248 Artificial recharge
0.118

Fig. 1 The means of fresh water consumption in the UAE (values are in billion m3 per year).

Fresh water withdrawal in the UAE continues to increase, leading to annual depletion of the
available reserve. Between 1982 and 2014, fresh water consumption for agriculture increased
from 720 million to 3.3 billion m3/year. In addition, fresh water consumption for domestic use
increased from 99 million to 617 million m3/year (The World Bank, 2015b). The remaining fresh
water resources have continued to decrease because of the continuous upward trend in
withdrawal.

Over the years, there has been consistent increase in UAE population. An average population
growth rate of 8.4% has been obtained over a period of 44 years (The World Bank, 2015c).
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Although the annual growth rate is inconsistent, the average growth rate is huge and it translates
to more water consumption in the future. With this growth rate, the population of UAE is
expected to reach 12 million by 2030 (Shahin and Salem, 2015). The total annual fresh water
withdrawal now is 3.998 billion m3 (The World Bank, 2015b). By 2030, this amount would be
5.28 billion m3 (based on projected population figures), assuming the current rate of withdrawal
persists. The projected increase in fresh water consumption for different applications in UAE
between 2014 and 2030 is estimated by using the population growth rate. The fresh water
consumption in 2014 and expected consumption in 2030 are shown in Fig. 2.

Fig. 2 Projected increase in fresh water consumption for different applications in UAE.

As it can be seen in Fig. 2, there is a need to account for an extra total amount of 285 million
m3/y of desalinated water and 639 million m3/y of groundwater to meet fresh water demands by
2030. The largest deficits are expected in the area of groundwater irrigation for agriculture and
forestry. In addition, there are no significant improvements in internal freshwater resources due
to the arid climatic conditions of the UAE. In fact, IPCC reports have postulated that natural
precipitation rates may decline significantly because of a 12 oC increase in the temperature of
Arabian Peninsula due to climate change (Gnel, 2016). Therefore, for a sustainable water future
and water security in the UAE, efforts should be directed towards maximizing fresh water
resources by improving usage efficiency, decreasing the rate of water withdrawals or demand,
and increasing the rate of sustainable supply.

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This paper seeks to thoroughly analyze the current water situation in the UAE and propose
opportunities or solutions that would enable the country meet its future water demand in a
sustainable way. Two major solutions are proposed: (1) increasing water use efficiency and (2)
consolidating water storage and supply. The impacts of these proposals are assessed in terms of
the potential water savings offered by the proposals. The economic, environmental and social
impacts of these proposals are also discussed. The limited availability of renewable and
sustainable water supply is not only restricted to the UAE. Other countries with low annual
precipitation, arid conditions, and inaccessibility to useable water face the problem of water
stress. However, most of the data available for other water-stressed countries are official and
confidential data that are difficult to access. Therefore, it is appropriate to select a geographical
reference for the sustainability assessments. Although the data for UAE has been used for this
study, the proposals in this paper and the sustainability assessments of these proposals might be
applicable in other countries with similar experience.

2. Overview of desalination in the UAE

Currently, there are 515 desalination plants and small-scale units in the UAE producing 3.43
billion m3/y of freshwater (Global Water Intelligence, 2015). These desalination plants employ
the following main technologies: multistage flash (MSF), reverse osmosis (RO), multi-effect
distillation (MED), and nanofiltration (NF). MSF is mostly used for desalination across the UAE.
Fig. 3 shows the quantity of fresh water produced through each desalination technology, the
classification of plants by technology, and desalinated water production over the years in the
UAE.

Desalinated water is produced from different sources of water. These sources of water include
seawater, brackish water, surface water (rivers), and recycled brine from desalination plants.
Seawater is the source for a significant chunk (97%) of all fresh water produced via desalination
in the UAE. Therefore, nearly all the water consumed in the UAE, and the rest of the arid
Arabian Gulf region, is extracted from seawater, using energy-intensive processes powered by
fossil fuels (Giwa et al., 2017, 2016a). This overarching dependence on seawater constitutes a
water security threat since supply can be disrupted in the event of occurrences which might make
seawater inaccessible. For instance, in 2008, algal blooms on the Arabian gulf led to the closures
of at least five seawater desalination plants in the UAE, thereby disrupting water supply. This
illustrates the need for diversity of supply sources to ensure water security in the country
(Berktay, 2011; Villacorte et al., 2015).

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(a) (b)

(c)

Fig. 3 An overview of desalination in the UAE showing (a) desalinated water production by
technology in m3/d; (b) number of desalination plants; (c) annual increase in desalinated water
production from the most prominent technologies. FO is forward osmosis and ED is
electrodialysis.

Due to the relatively high cost of water desalination, the government still pays subsidy for
desalinated water. Power and water subsidies in 2014 were estimated to cost the Abu Dhabi
Emirate about AED17.5 billion and this estimate was expected to increase to AED45 billion in
the next few years, according to the Abu Dhabi Executive Council. In addition to the economic
costs, there is an additional environmental price to be paid in terms of concentrate disposal and

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release of greenhouse gases from desalination plants (The National, 2014). Through economic
and environmental necessity, a major driver of the planned and ongoing investments in
desalination in the UAE is the development of less energy-intensive methods of desalinating
water. Before the current and last decades, thermal desalination techniques such as MSF and
MED were mostly used in the UAE (Fig. 3(c)). The UAE desalination industry is now focused
on cheaper, simple and efficient new technologies. The average cost of desalinated water has
been fluctuating over the years as a result of the volatility of crude oil/gas prices and increase in
the number of plants using less costly technologies such as RO. Currently, the average cost of
desalinated water from all feed sources in the UAE is $1.13/m3 (Global Water Intelligence,
2015). The different sources of feed water for desalination and the temporal fluctuations in the
average cost of desalinated water in the UAE are shown in Fig. 4.

(a) (b)

Fig. 4 (a) Feed sources for desalination; and (b) temporal variations of the average cost of
desalinated water in the UAE (Global Water Intelligence, 2015). The average cost is shown as
inset and the year is placed as outside the shaded sphere.

The largest amount of desalinated water is produced in the Abu Dhabi emirate (Fig. 5). This
emirate is the largest emirate, by size. About 65% of desalinated water is consumed by the
households and residences. However, in recent times, some amounts of desalinated water are

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being diverted to dams for artificial recharge (Fig. 1). 61 million m3 of desalinated water is
stored in dams annually for artificial recharge, predominantly in the Northern emirates. There are
68 dams containing stored desalinated water in the UAE. The greatest proportion of desalinated
water (42.5%) is stored in the dams at Al Fujeirah administrative unit. The Ras Al Khaimah,
neutral zone, and Sharjah administrative units have dams containing 14.8%, 3.2%, and 0.5% of
all stored desalinated water, respectively.

4,190,682

2,679,913

1,219,979

319,991 468,845
245,237
35,472

Abu Dhabi Ajman Al Dubai Ras Al Sharjah Umm Al

Fujairah Khaimah Quwain
State/region

Fig. 5 Amounts of desalinated water produced in the states or regions of UAE in m3/day.

Certain steps have been taken recently by the Abu Dhabi emirate to ensure that initiatives for
water management and conservation are put in place. These initiatives are in the form of
objectives and are captured in the Abu Dhabi Water Resources Master Plan and the Water
Resources Management Strategy for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi 2014-2018 (Government of Abu
Dhabi, 2014; Pitman et al., 2009). These objectives include: to (1) develop legislation, standards,
and federal mechanisms for integrated water resources management through the establishment of
a national council and forum that would ensure coordination among stakeholders; (2) manage
natural water resources and enhance strategic reserve; (3) improve the relationship between the
government and farmers by promoting an agricultural model that is water-conservative,
environmentally benign, and commercially viable; (4) introduce economic optimization
principles in the design of future desalination capacity; (5) reduce the daily per capita
consumption of water to the global average of 200 L/capita per day; (6) review and develop clear
water pricing and subsidy policies; (7) increase the use of treated wastewater and develop
discharge standards for UAEs marine and terrestrial environments; and (8) build capacity and
strengthen local expertise on the concepts of integrated water resources management.
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These water resources management plan and strategy place strong emphasis on the need to
reduce water demand and conserve groundwater. The willingness of the government to adopt
new water conservation policy and increase the proportion of reused water in the water budget
has also been emphasized. However, there are no specific targets for some of the stated
initiatives in terms of quantitative procedures and measurable actions. In addition, the economic,
environmental and social impacts of the possible policy changes have not been considered. There
is no action plan relating to the construction of desalination plants powered by fossil fuels.
Desalination plants powered by fossil fuels are still being constructed.

Recently, research on some new desalination technologies membrane distillation (MD), FO,
and capacitive deionization (CDI) is being intensified at Abu Dhabis renewable energy institute,
Masdar Institute. This research is a part of the knowledge-transfer initiatives put in place by
partners of the four new energy-efficient pilot desalination plants being constructed at Ghantoot,
Abu Dhabi. The pilot plants aim to produce 1,500 m3/day of fresh water through test operations
of energy-efficient FO and RO (Akther et al., 2015; El Ramahi, 2017). However, this production
is minimal, when compared to the countrys overall desalination capacity. In addition, big
desalination plants that would be powered by fossil fuels are still being built/proposed such as
Uticos $195.8 million plant in Ras Al Khaimah, the proposed AED1 billion plant in Umm Al
Quwain, and three other plants that would produce millions of gallons of desalinated water per
day, as proposed by the Federal Electricity and Water Authority (FEWA) (Desalination & water
reuse, 2016; Rahman, 2016; The National, 2016). So, the threat is that the overdependence on
fossil fuel-powered desalination might continue. The proposals presented and assessed in this
paper aim to provide specific qualitative and quantitative estimations, such that water security
and sustainability can be realized.

3. Methodology

One solution alone is insufficient to prevent the water shortfall that the UAE might face, if
demand outpaces supply in the future. Hence, there is need to explore as many options as
possible which can be integrated to ensure significant impact on water management. Two
solutions are considered and assessed for their potential to make water use sustainable. The first
solution addresses water demand and targets sustainable water consumption while the second
solution addresses water supply and storage.

3.1. Solution 1: Water use efficiency and conservation

Five schemes are proposed to achieve water consumption efficiency, namely (i) water
conservation campaigns; (ii) water pricing; (iii) sustainable building codes; (iv)efficient
irrigation practices and 100% wastewater reuse in agriculture; and (v) strategic reduction of

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water leakages. The contributions of these schemes to water savings by 2030 are estimated and
analyzed.

The impact of water pricing is determined using price elasticity models which describe the
impact of price variation on water demand. The elasticity tells what percent change in demand to
expect from a given change in price. A price-elastic commodity is one whose demand is greatly
affected by price, e.g. most luxury goods, while the demand for an inelastic commodity is not
altered by price. Water, being a fundamental human need, is mainly inelastic, although not
perfectly so. This means an increase in price would lead to a small decrease in water demand. At
the household level, water savings due to price increase might be small. However when these
gains are aggregated over a large population, it could be significant enough to bolster water
conservation efforts. This is especially true in situations where water is available for free or
heavily subsidized by government. Although demand would normally increase when the
population increases, the annual marginal increase in demand can be reduced through periodic
price reviews. The reaction of water demand to changes in price was modeled by using eq. (1)
(Walski et al., 1985).

= 1 (1/2) (1)

Where R is % reduction in demand; P1 is the initial price; P2 is the new price; and is the price
elasticity. is the ratio of the percentage change in water demand to the percentage change in
price. is taken to be 0.1, based on a previous water price elasticity study for the city of Abu
Dhabi (Abu Qdais and Al Nassay, 2001). It was reported that a 28.8% drop in water
consumption was achieved when price was hiked by 290% from AED0.56/m3 to AED2.2/m3
(Abu Qdais and Al Nassay, 2001). Thus, the price elasticity for this work was taken to be 0.1 and
potential demand reduction in the future was estimated accordingly.

The impact of introducing sustainable building codes was evaluated by calculating water savings
that could be gained if buildings adopted the use of water efficient fixtures. The flow ratings of
water efficient fixtures were determined based on the Water Sense criteria developed by the US
EPA for water efficient fixtures. The Water Sense program (United States Environment
Protection Agency (US EPA), 2008) stipulates that for a fixture to be classified as water
efficient, it must meet the following specifications:

a) Toilets: Water-efficient toilets should have a maximum effective flush volume of 1.28
gallons per flush and must be able to effectively clear 350 grams of soy-based media.

b) Faucets: Water efficient faucets and aerators should have a maximum flow rate of 1.5
gallons per minute (gpm) at a flowing pressure of 60 psi.

c) Showers: The maximum flow rate from all showerheads flowing at any given time
should be 2.5 gpm per shower compartment.

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d) Clothes Washers: Clothes washers should have a water factor (WF) of less than or equal
to 6.0 gallons per cycle per ft3 capacity.

The ratings of the conventional fixtures and household fixture use patterns (Table 2), obtained
from a report by the Regulation and supervision Bureau of Abu Dhabi, were used to estimate
conventional water consumption in UAE, while the Water Sense standards, in combination with
household fixture use patterns were used to estimate water consumption in a water-efficient
scenario. The potential water savings that could be obtained, if the use of these devices were
mandated throughout the UAE, was estimated as the difference in water consumption between
the conventional scenario and the water-efficient scenario. While water use is a function of the
fixture characteristics and use pattern, potential water savings were calculated based on changing
the fixture characteristics only since the use patterns cannot be reliably predicted.

Table 2 Conventional use patterns of household fixtures in Abu Dhabi (Regulation and
Supervision Bureau, 2014).

Fixture Use Pattern

Toilets Assumes 5.7 flushes/day/person
Faucets Assumes average use of 7.68 minutes/person/day
Showers 5.6 min/shower/person and 0.82 showers/person/day
Dish Washer Assumes 0.02 cycles/person/day
Clothes Washers Assumes 0.33 loads/person/day

The impact of efficient irrigation and wastewater use in agriculture on water demand was
evaluated based on the assumption of complete collection and utilization of wastewater. The total
wastewater generated in the UAE, Qm, was estimated from the population and per capita
wastewater generation using eq. (2) (Urbani, 1997).

= (2)

D is the average domestic and commercial water consumption per capita (m3/d); P is the total
population of UAE; is the dispersion factor that describes the losses and uses without sewage
disposal. is considered to be equal to 0.9 (DaDeppo and Datei, 2015). The average water
consumption per capita is about 550 L/d (Environment Agency Abu Dhabi (EAD), 2008). This
number is estimated by dividing the total water withdrawal by the total population and the days
in a year. Meanwhile, 550 L/d is the water consumption per capita for all purposes. The water
consumption per capita for domestic and commercial purposes is around 200 L/d (Statistics
Center Abu Dhabi (SCAD), 2013). By 2030, the population of UAE is expected to be about 12
million based on the current growth rate. Using these parameters, the savings from this scheme

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were obtained by the assumption that collected wastewater will replace fresh water being used
for irrigation currently.

To address water leakages, the use of noise loggers and pressure control in water pipelines is
proposed. The potential water saving from this scheme was estimated from the impact of
pressure control obtained from eq. (3).

= 2/ (3)

is water leakage in m3/; A is the area of the orifice in 2; is the orifice coefficient
(dimensionless); is water density in kg/m3; is the relative pressure in the pipeline.

3.2. Solution 2: Diversification of water supply and storage

Two schemes are proposed to achieve diversification of the sources of water supply and storage.
These schemes include the (i) enhancement of artificial recharge capacity through green cloud
seeding, and (ii) the deployment of solar photovoltaic-powered reverse osmosis (PV-RO) to meet
domestic water needs. For scheme (ii), two scenarios were compared. Scenario 1 involves the
use of the current market share of desalination technologies to estimate the deficit while scenario
2 involves the use of PV-RO only.

Currently, the relative percentages of desalinated water production from the prominent
technologies are: 67.8% (MSF), 20.2% (grid-connected RO), and 12% (MED) (Global Water
Intelligence, 2015). The two scenarios were compared in terms of the energy required, cost of
water production, and environmental impact (i.e. CO2 emission). The energy required by these
desalination technologies in the UAE is in the following order of magnitude: RO < MED < MSF
(DeFelice and MacDonald Gibson, 2013). The costs of water production from these technologies
were calculated using desaldata inventory (Global Water Intelligence, 2015), which contains the
latest reported costs per unit water produced from real operating projects that employ such
technologies in the UAE. CO2 emissions were estimated using data obtained from Abu Dhabi
Water and Electricity Company (ADWEC) and Regulations and Supervision Bureau (RSB), Abu
Dhabi.

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4. Results and discussion

4.1. Assessment of solution 1: Water use efficiency and conservation

The first step towards attaining water security is to ensure that usage patterns are adjusted to
avoid waste and unnecessary consumption. Without this, an increase in supply would only lead
to more wastage rather than the intended water security. Water use efficiency can be attained by
making behavioral, structural and technological changes to the ways by which water is currently
being consumed across the country. Behavioral change involves individuals making life choices
in a way that deliberately minimizes their water footprint. Structural changes involve policy
moves by government which facilitates low water consumption. Technological changes involve
the use of innovative demand management devices. The 5 schemes proposed for solution 1 are
discussed, analyzed and assessed in the following sections.

4.1.1 Water conservation campaigns

The lack of awareness on the consequences of poor water usage habits is the major reason why
people engage in wasteful water consumption. Although water conservation campaigns have
been intensified recently, many people are still unaware of the dire state of water resources in the
country. To address this problem, there should be informational campaigns to enlighten people
about the water situation of the country. Although this alone may not lead to behavioural change,
it would help the populace to adapt to drastic conservation strategies, discussed hereinafter, such
as tariff increase or restriction of unsustainable agricultural practices. Such campaigns should be
both top down and bottom up, using both high-profile public figures as well as the new media to
inform residents of the water scarcity issue, and the steps that individuals can take to reduce their
water consumption. For instance, in the United States, mass media campaigns have recorded an
appreciable level of success in influencing public behaviour on issues such as drug abuse,
cigarette smoking, traffic safety, and the environmental effects of pesticides. Such types of
effective campaigns can be adopted to disseminate information on water conservation to the
UAE populace. In addition, feedback mechanisms should be put in place through surveys to
monitor the effectiveness of such campaigns.

4.1.2 Water pricing

Availability of free water is one of the biggest enablers of wasteful water consumption. The
absence of a water price, or the presence of one that does not reflect the true cost of water, fuels
the perception that water is an abundant resource, contrary to the UAEs reality. People are more
conscious of the water they use if they pay for it. Several examples exist where an increase in the
price of water was effective in reducing consumption. In Metropolitan Barcelona (Spain), for

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instance, the introduction of metering system and change of water pricing system to three
consumption bands resulted in a reduction of consumption by 16.9% in 75% of the cases
investigated (Mayers, 1996). This has been demonstrated in Dubai where water consumption
dropped after tariffs were introduced in 2008 (Middle East Association, 2014). While the water
price regimes in the UAE have evolved for the residents over the years as shown in Table 3,
current tariffs still do not reflect the high cost of water. This has contributed to the high
consumption per capita of about 550L/person/day in the UAE, three times the worlds average of
about 180-200 L/person/day. The price regimes for Abu Dhabi in Table 3 have been incentivized
and are only valid when the average daily consumption is less than or equal to 700 L for flats and
7,000 L for villas. Above these limits, the prices would become higher. In Dubai and the
northern emirates, the price regimes have been incentivized and are only valid when the average
monthly consumption is less than or equal to 600 imperial gallons. A fuel surcharge of
AED1.32/m3 based on the actual cost of the fuel supplied to generating plants is also applicable.
Above these limits, the prices would become higher.

Table 3 Water tariff for residential buildings in UAE (AED/m3) (Dubai Electricity and Water
Authority, 2015; Regulation and Supervision Bureau (RSB), 2013).

Abu Dhabi Dubai and Northern Emirates

Year Pre 1997 1997 2015 2008 2011 2015
Expats 0.56 2.2 5.95 6.6 7.7 7.7
Nationals 0 0 1.7 2.2 3.3 7.7

It is proposed here that as time goes on, all subsidies should be removed and people should pay
the actual price of water. An increase in the price of water from the current price of AED5.95/m3
to the actual cost of AED10.32/m3 would reduce the water consumed by expats by 5.4% using
the price elasticity model presented in eq. (1). This price review can be implemented strategically
through marginal price increments for a period of 5 years, such that the downtrend in water
consumption can be monitored. As water price increases progressively over the period, the
cumulative decrease in demand follows the same trend (Fig. 6).

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Water price

Water price and % decrease in water

% reduction in demand (annual)
% reduction in demand (cumulative)
12

10
demand

0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year

Fig. 6 Impact of water price on the demand of water.

Although, elasticity does not always stay constant as price changes, the assumption of constant
elasticity represents a conservative estimate of water reduction (DeFelice and MacDonald
Gibson, 2013). The demand for water becomes more elastic as its price increases, and people are
willing to reduce their consumption of water as its cost begins to account for a considerable
proportion of their household income. Also, outdoor water use presents a great opportunity for
water savings as it is the major factor responsible for the high consumption per capita in
residential buildings like villas (see Table 4) and has been reported to respond more to higher
tariffs (Abu Qdais and Al Nassay, 2001; Sjdin et al., 2016) About 44% of residential water
demand in villas is used for outdoor purposes which include landscape irrigation and car washing
(Regulation and Supervision Bureau (RSB), 2013). Therefore, in order to make the tariff system
become more effective, emphasis must be placed on scaling down this component of residential
water demand by adopting initiatives such as seasonal pricing. Seasonal pricing would impose
higher water tariffs for villa dwellers than apartment dwellers during periods of high demand and
reduced supplies, such as during the summer months.

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Table 4 Water consumption by residential property types (Regulation and Supervision Bureau
(RSB), 2013).

Nationality Property type Gross consumption (L/capita/day)

Minimum Maximum
Flats 170 220
Expatriates
Villas 270 730
Flats 165 -
UAE Nationals Villas 400 1,760
Shabiyats 610 1,010
Overall average 525 600

4.1.3. Sustainable building codes and standards

Water use efficiency can be improved when government sets up and enforces regulations or
policies that would require contractors to abide by green-building codes and standards. The
construction of water-efficient buildings and structures would be facilitated by these regulations.
Such regulations would establish water-efficiency standards for household fixtures. The
installations of these fixtures in new buildings should be mandated. The policies should include
building retrofitting program that will make older buildings to be retrofitted with water-efficient
features. Taps, showers, and toilets account for more than 70% of indoor water use in residential
homes in Abu Dhabi (Regulation and Supervision Bureau (RSB), 2013). Using the US EPA
efficient fixtures standards and the use pattern obtained from Regulations and Supervision
Bureau in Abu Dhabi(2014), the potential water savings from enforcing green building codes
were estimated and presented in Table 5. By replacing the conventional fixtures with their water-
efficient counterparts, domestic water savings of 19.8 % can be achieved. The most significant
savings would be achieved via faucet replacements.

By 2030, domestic water demand in the UAE is expected to rise to about 810 million m3 while
the indoor component would be about 448 million m3. Through water-efficient fixtures, the UAE
could gain about 89 million m3/year in fresh water savings by 2030. Furthermore, apart from
establishing and enforcing the codes that promote the use of water-efficient devices, the
government should also provide rebates for water-efficient fixtures, as incentives to encourage
their rapid and widespread adoption.

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Table 5 Per capita estimation of savings from the use of water-efficient household fixtures
(Regulation and Supervision Bureau, 2014; United States Environment Protection Agency (US
EPA), 2008).

Conventional Conventional Water Sense Expected use Expected

Units
rates use (L) rates (L) Savings (L)
Toilets L/flush 6.7 38.19 4.75 27.08 11.12
Faucets L/min 8.33 63.97 4.54 42.40 21.57
Shower heads L/min 9.5 43.62 9.46 43.44 0.18
Dish Washer L/load 13.4 0.27 13.4 0.27 0.00
Clothe Washers L/load 60 19.8 60 19.80 0.00
Total 165.86 132.99 32.87

Water Savings 19.8%

4.1.4. Efficient irrigation practices and agriculture

Groundwater is predominantly used for agricultural and forestry irrigation. Groundwater

consumption accounts for approximately 67% of the total water consumption (Environment
Agency Abu Dhabi (EAD), 2009). At current abstraction rates, the Emirates fresh and brackish
groundwater resources will be exhausted in 50 years (Shahin and Salem, 2014). The proposal
here is that the UAE should implement a rigorous and strict groundwater budget where water is
allocated based on economic and ecological necessity. Since agriculture contributes less than 1%
of the GDP (The World Bank, 2015a), it is not economically viable to continue to deplete
precious groundwater for agricultural expansion, especially since a time will come when the
groundwater itself might not be available, based on current abstraction rates. In order to develop
agriculture in a sustainable manner, the UAE must find alternative water sources for irrigation,
aside groundwater. A readily available substitute is the treated effluent from wastewater.
However, as shown in Fig. 1, it is currently infeasible to fulfill all agricultural water demand
with the treated wastewater effluents generated in the UAE. If the sewage collection and
utilization rates increase, it would be possible to fulfill all the agricultural and forestry water
demand from treated sewage effluent by 2030. The excess can then be stored in underground
aquifers. Currently in Abu Dhabi emirate, about 60 per cent of the treated wastewater effluent is
reused for forestry (General Secretariat of the Executive Council, 2015). The rest is dumped to
surface ponds. Therefore, the specific proposal for agriculture is that the use of groundwater be
completely discontinued; instead, all wastewaters from all sources across the country should be
collected and 100% utilization of treated wastewater for agriculture should be employed.

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Through eq. (2), the total wastewater that would be generated in 2030 is estimated to be 790
million m3. If this wastewater is completely treated, the resulting effluent is enough to replace all
the groundwater being abstracted for agricultural irrigation purposes. This estimate is reasonable
since the emirate of Abu Dhabi already plans to reuse 100% of its produced waste water by 2018
(Todorova, 2014). It is therefore logical to expect that similar feat can be achieved by all other
emirates long before the year 2030. Different treatment approaches can be adopted to produce
treated wastewater effluents that are suitable for potable and agricultural uses. The traditional
approach is to add units of nutrients removal and a final filtration unit for refining. Some
countries now are moving to RO to improve the quality of treated effluents. This is the case of
Singapore a country that is refining all its wastewater to potable levels through the RO process.
Treated wastewater RO is cheaper, in no small measure, than seawater RO. Treated wastewater
RO is even more cost-effective than brackish water RO because the concentration of solutes in
treated wastewater is lower. The cost of fresh water production from treated wastewater RO is
quite lower than the average cost of water in UAE (Pitman et al., 2009).

Water efficiency in the agricultural sector should also be promoted by: encouraging farmers to
grow more drought-tolerant and less water-intense crops; developing initiatives that ensure
water-conserving farming techniques such as the use of drip irrigation and sprinklers, instead of
surface irrigation; and offering treated effluents from wastewater at a discounted rate.
Landscaping constitutes an important part of urban water requirements in the UAE. About 82%
of the water used for landscaping is sourced from groundwater. Alternatively, Xeriscaping and
hardscaping which require little or no water demand could be employed. This will permit the use
of treated wastewater effluents and other fresh water resources for agriculture. Xeriscaping has
been shown to be capable of reducing water consumption by 50 - 75% (Bollaci D. et al, 2010).
Hence if policies are made to ensure that by 2030, 75% of all landscaped area will be subjected
to xeriscaping and hardscaping, the water demand for landscaping purposes could be reduced by
75% of the projected value.

4.1.5. Reduction of water leakages

A certain amount of water leakage is expected in any water supply system (Lallana and Thyssen,
2003). The problems with leakages are not only related to the efficiency of the network but also
to water quality (i.e. contamination of drinking water if the pressure in the distribution network is
very low). The water leakage in the UAE distribution grid is about 17% (Pitman et al., 2009).
With state-of-the-art management, this could be reduced to 10%. To reduce the water losses to
10% is technically feasible and there are countries, e.g. Germany, with losses of only 5%. The
benefits of the reduction of water leakages are: water recovery; recovery of pumping energy;
reduction of operating costs; reduction of disruptions; and improvement of equipment. The UAE
water network is pretty new and efficient (17% is a small number compared to other countries).
To reduce this number seems to be ambitious, but it is possible to intervene in the monitoring

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and reduction of the small un-detectable distributed losses. In order to reduce the total water
losses, it is necessary to continuously monitor the water distribution grid to ensure prompt
intervention when disruptions occur (not only when the leakages reach the land surface).

The simple proposal here is automatic remote monitoring through the use of noise loggers. Noise
loggers consist of small sensors, located at different points in the supply network, recording
noises coming from the pipeline and recognizing losses from their sound level. The listening
points should be located in the most sensible areas at a distance of 300-500 m from one another.
This system permits the real-time identification of unreported bursts, which are difficult to find
because they do not reach the surface. Once identified, it is possible to identify the exact
breaking point through the use of acoustic techniques or inert tracking gases (e.g. helium).

The higher the pressure in the pipelines, the higher is the leakage, according to eq. (3). Small and
distributed leakages can be avoided by controlling the pressure in the network. If the pressure in
the network inlet points is constant, the pressure in the network decreases when the demand
increases. Water leakage is the consequence of high pressure when the demand is low. In order
to reduce the pressure during low-demand periods, the use of pumps with variable speed (rpm)
and pressure relief valves in the water network is proposed. The cost of leakage reduction is
difficult to quantify. A thorough analysis of the distribution networks would be required for
reliable cost estimations. Nevertheless, the water savings resulting from leakage reduction would
offset the capital cost due to the installation of remote control and pressure reduction devices.

4.2. Assessment of solution 2: Diversification of water supply and storage

The specific proposals for the diversification of the sources of water supply and storage in the
UAE include: green cloud seeding and the use of PV-RO to meet domestic water needs only.

4.2.1. Cloud seeding

In an emergency situation (if the entire desalination capacity of the UAE is shut down, for
example), the water stored in the underground reservoirs and artificial ponds will be sufficient to
meet the countrys water needs for only one day (AlAwar, 2015). This is the main concern for
water security in the UAE. Green cloud seeding is the approach proposed here for increase in
artificial recharge capacity. Cloud seeding is the injection of solid materials, usually salt crystals,
into the clouds to serve as artificial nuclei which induce the precipitation of water droplets
(Dessens et al., 2016; Storelvmo et al., 2013).When these droplets grow too big to be retained in
the salt crystals, they collide or coalesce and fall as rain. Cloud seeding has been harnessed as a
means to augment fresh water reserves in several countries and results obtained so far has
demonstrated its viability (Hunter, 2007).

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Conventionally, it is achieved by firing silver iodide salt flares or dry ice into the clouds to
trigger condensation via ground generators, airplanes, or pyrotechnic rocket (Harper, 2008; Qiu
and Cressey, 2008). However, a more recent cloud-seeding technique is to use hygroscopic
salts such as sodium/potassium chloride to provide "seeds" for large droplets that fall more
quickly, colliding with smaller droplets on the way and accelerating rainfall development
(Farmer et al., 2015; Li et al., 2014). In general, cloud seeding is more effective in mountainous
regions which are known to facilitate cloud formation. When such clouds are formed, seeding
them enhances the amount of rain they can produce on their own as demonstrated by successful
cloud seeding programs carried out in other countries (Freud et al., 2015; Silverman, 2010).

UAE has significant geographic potential to consolidate its water supply via cloud seeding
campaigns. The mountainous regions in the eastern parts of Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah, and Al
Ain provide suitable topology for formation of clouds which are suitable for seeding. While its
science is not exact, statistical studies show that if properly executed, significant rainfall
increments can be obtained from cloud seeding operations (Freud et al., 2015; Hunter, 2007).
Although the amount of money spent on seeding per area in UAE is not usually disclosed, it is
expected to be close to that reported for similar programs in other countries, like the USA where
recent estimates have shown that the costs per target area might be up to $29.60 per acre-feet
with an estimated benefit-cost ratio up to 179:1, depending on the mode of seeding (Griffith et
al., 2017).

The National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS), UAE began cloud seeding
campaigns in the 1990s and has continued till present. As a means of improving the know-how
on cloud seeding, NCMS has launched an AED 18.3 million program to stimulate research and
development in cloud seeding operations. While these efforts are laudable, there needs to be
strategic execution to ensure that the water gained from seeding programs is channeled towards
artificial recharge by targeting locations where rain water is likely to accumulate in underground
reservoirs. Rain enhancement assessment studies conducted in the UAE between 2001 and 2005
suggest that the best area for long term groundwater recharge is in the Oman mountains region
(NCMS, 2017, 2005). In the future, focus can also be directed towards the upwind side of the
mountainous regions and the sea and coastal areas, as observed in previous cloud seeding
operations in other countries. Freud et al. (2015) observed that the clouds over sea and coastal
areas around the Mediterranean Sea provide desirable glaciogenic seeding opportunities because
efficient precipitation that results from short precipitation-forming time can be achieved in these
areas (Freud et al., 2015). Silverman (2010) also observed positive seeding effect of silver iodide
plumes at the upwind areas of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in the United States (Silverman,
2010).

Based on the aforementioned, an increase in aquifer recharge by 20% through cloud seeding by
2030 is proposed here, to improve the water reserve in the UAE. More dams also need to be
constructed to accommodate the increase in reserve. A potential problem of carrying out cloud
seeding at such a massive scale is the outcome of some studies that silver iodide can cause
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temporary weakness or possible residual injury to humans and mammals. However, this has been
disputed in other studies and the overall impact of silver iodide on the environment is considered
to be negligible (Di Toro et al., 2001; Tsiouris et al., 2002). Nonetheless, green cloud seeding
should be practiced. Green cloud seeding is the use of green and renewable salts that are benign
and environmentally friendly for cloud seeding. Such salts are hydrophilic and characterized by
high surface area and sufficiently low mean particle size for maximum contact with atmospheric
water. These nanoscale characteristics could accelerate water condensation from clouds and
enhance rain formation in the arid climate of the UAE. Nanotechnology has shown that
nanoscale ice has a crystalline structure that is pentagonal rather than hexagonal (Carrasco et al.,
2009). This idea has opened a new vista of opportunities for the use of green chemicals for cloud
seeding (Hu et al., 2016). Intense research on the use of green and organic nanotechnology for
cloud seeding in order to achieve 20% increase in aquifer recharge by 2030 is therefore
proposed.

4.2.2. Use of PV-RO to meet domestic water needs

If the current market share of existing desalination technologies (MSF, grid-connected RO, and
MED) is maintained and used to supply the additional desalinated water required by 2030, the
cost and environmental implications of the extra water production are provided in Table 6.

Table 6 Cost and environmental implications of new desalination plants, using existing
prominent technologies.

Average specific Energy Environmental

Desalination Extra amount needed Cost required
energy required required pollution (kton
technology for 2030 (milion m3/y) ($million/y)
(kWh/m3) (GWh/y) CO2/y)

MSF 22 134.1 2949.3 151.5 5.90

Grid-connected
4.5 40.0 600.4 35.2 1.76
RO

MED 15 23.8 106.9 14.3 1.05

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On the other hand, if PV-RO is used to meet the additional desalinated water requirement, the
specific cost of water production would change dramatically. The specific cost which has been
quoted by Abu Dhabi government-owned Masdar Company for the production of desalinated
water via large-scale PV-RO technology is $3.3/m3 (Ritschel and Esan, 2015). The specific
energy consumption of a large-scale PV-RO plant is 5.18 kWh/m3 (Amati et al., 2008). This
value is lower than the specific energy requirements of MED and MSF but higher than the
specific energy consumption of conventional grid-connected RO plant (i.e. 4.5 kWh/m3, as
shown in Table 6) because of energy losses involved with power transmission from the PV
system. Also, less than 30 g of CO2 would be emitted per kWh of energy produced from PV
because CO2 is released from the manufacturing of PV panels. This amount corresponds to 16 g
CO2 emission per m3 of desalinated water from PV-RO technology (DeDecker, 2015). Another
environmental impact that can be considered is the brine discharge (Dindi et al., 2015). More
environmental conservation benefits would be obtained from Masdar Companys PV-RO
technology because it seeks to use membrane distillation for brine volume minimization, as
compared to conventional technologies where brine is discharged majorly in the seas. However,
brine discharge has not been modeled here because of the sparse information on how the salinity,
different chemicals, and temperature of brine can be converted to environmental and health
impacts.

The cost of water from PV-RO technology is higher than the costs of water production from
conventional technologies. However, 16 g CO2/m3 would be released from PV-RO, which is
lower than the 4 g CO2/m3 that would be released from the conventional grid-connected RO.
Although higher cost would be incurred when PV-RO technology is used to cater for the extra
supply needed by 2030, lower CO2 emission benefits would be achieved. The cost of water
production from PV-RO would eventually become lower than that from grid-connected RO
when the cost of the environmental pollution is internalized. In addition, the cost of PV power is
declining rapidly and further cost reduction is expected in the future.

Therefore, significant savings would be made in terms of energy required and CO2 emission, if
PV-RO is used to supply 100% of the additional desalinated water that would be required by
2030, instead of using the current prominent technologies at their current market share. These
savings are shown in Fig. 7. The main social impact of using PV-RO is land requirement. Solar
power parks can be developed to implement this proposal. These parks would also induce other
economic and commercial activities.

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Fig. 7 Comparison of current technologies with PV-RO for meeting the projected desalinated
water deficit.

4.3 Potential barriers to implementation

The implementation of these proposed solutions might face potential barriers due to the local,
cultural and socio-economic conditions. New policies that might arise from these strategies could
have effect beyond water conservation and storage diversification. For instance, minimizing
groundwater use in agriculture could lead to loss of jobs and could face resistance from people
who rely on it for their livelihood. A similar outcome could be experienced by the introduction
of actual water pricing and enforcement of building codes which require residents to install more
expensive water-efficient fixtures. However, the social resistance to these initiatives can mostly
be quelled by effective education of the people. When people understand the future risks of
careless water consumption, it will be easier to accept changes which might be uncomfortable at
present. Also, since agriculture contributes less than 1% to the GDP of UAE, the environmental
benefits of restricting water use for agriculture would outweigh the economic impacts.

Furthermore, the use of treated wastewater can reduce the dependence on non-renewable sources
and increase the water security in the country, with considerable social benefits. But the social
acceptance of reused water is low in the UAE due to religious beliefs. For this reason, the reuse
of water for domestic purpose is not a viable option. Because wastewater is often described by
connotations such as dirty or impure, there is caution towards the use of treated wastewater
among adherents of religions where the concepts of ritual purity are highly regarded and
articulated (Figures et al., 2003).

One of such religions is Islam, which is the predominant religion in the UAE. Meanwhile, the
religious authorities accept the reuse of treated wastewater, under the condition that the treated
effluent is safe enough to use without the possibility of health risks. This acceptance has already
been legalized in the Fatwa issued by the Council of Leading Islamic Scholars in Saudi Arabia in

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1978 (Goldschmidt and Boum, 2015). Fatwas are statements of law issued by Islamic scholars
and aimed at resolving issues that cannot be clearly interpreted by Islamic jurisprudence. Fatwas
are kept and practiced by many Islamic countries, including the UAE. What poses health risks
is, however, debatable because there are different international regulations with different
standards. It is stated in the Fatwa that If there are negative impacts from its direct use on the
human health, then it is better to avoid its use, not because it is impure but to avoid harming
human beings (Ouda, 2016).

Therefore, the Council recommends that the use of treated wastewater for drinking might be
avoided in order to avoid potential health problems and in consideration of the negative public
sentiments (Maliva et al., 2011). Since most of the water consumed in the UAE is used for
agriculture and forestry, a low social-impact proposal is use treated wastewater to meet the water
needs in the agriculture sector. Policies, incentives and informational campaigns would increase
the approval of this proposal from farmers.

5. Conclusions

The objective of this paper is to analyze the current water situation, propose and assess the
feasibility of solutions for water security and sustainability in the UAE. Two solutions are
proposed in this paper. The first solution entails water use efficiency through behavioral,
structural and technological changes to the ways in which water is currently being consumed
across the country. Five strategies that would promote water use efficiency were proposed and
analyzed in this paper. The conclusions are summarized below

Informational campaigns involving top down and bottom up approaches, high-profile

figures, and the new media would enlighten people about the water situation of the
country.

An increase in the price of water from the current price of AED5.95/m3 to the actual cost
of AED10.32/m3 would reduce the water consumed by expats by 5.4%.

The introduction of sustainable building codes through the replacement of the

conventional toilets, faucets, showers, dish washers and clothes washers in buildings with
their water-efficient counterparts could be used to achieve domestic water savings of
19.8%.

The total wastewater that would be generated by 2030 is estimated to be 790 million m3.
If this wastewater is treated, the resulting effluent will be enough to offset all water needs
for agriculture.

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With the use of noise loggers, pumps with variable speed (rpm) and pressure relief valves
in the water network, water leakage could be reduced from 17% to 10%.

By implementing these efficiency measures, there is a potential to achieve a cumulative

water savings of about 29% by 2030.

The second solution entails the diversification of water supply and storage sources through cloud
seeding and PV-RO. The results obtained from the analysis of these solutions can be summarized
thus:

Based on the recent achievements on cloud seeding in the UAE, an increase of aquifer
recharge by 20% through cloud seeding by the year 2030 is achievable.

Significant savings would be made in terms of energy consumption and CO2 emission, if
PV-RO is used to supply the additional desalinated water required for domestic
applications by 2030.

However, further research is necessary to address some assumptions made in this study. The
price elasticity of demand is assumed to be constant. In reality, the price elasticity is a function
of price and time. The variability of the price elasticity should be investigated in future studies.
The impacts of such variability on water demand should be evaluated. In addition, the effect of
water pricing on water demand should encompass the water consumption for both locals and
expats. The price elasticity of water demand by expats only is considered in this study because of
limited data. Focus should also be directed towards a comprehensive study of the costs of all
proposed solutions so that an integrated cost management approach can be proposed in addition
to water management. Current research on cloud seeding has been centered only on the
development of novel materials for improved cloud seeding operations. Future research should
also focus on the projections of the exact amount of water, cost of water, and environment
impacts associated with the use of those materials at larger spatial and temporal scales.

Acknowledgement

The support provided by Khalifa University of Science and Technology - Masdar Institute, Abu
Dhabi, United Arab Emirates is highly appreciated.

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