pendiente trend seasonal

-8,0885417 236,97135
alpha gamma delta 1,0695159
0,2 0,05 0,1 1,2669195
1,3801828
yt t 0,2833819 mes
196 1 -8,5447649 219,75835 1,0517531 1
196 2 -9,1098411 199,91206 1,2382706 2
173 3 -9,7644061 177,71092 1,3395136 3
105 4 -7,7386237 208,46216 0,3054125 4
75 5 -9,032764 174,84073 0,989474 5
39 6 -10,375888 138,94548 1,1425121 6
13 7 -11,564534 104,79668 1,2179672 7
20 8 -11,842004 87,682753 0,2976808 8
37 9 -12,226475 68,151321 0,9448176 9
73 10 -12,146781 57,518734 1,1551761 10
108 11 -11,713777 54,03203 1,296052 11
191 12 -5,7206904 162,17998 0,3856831 12
227 13 -4,8827031 173,21904 0,9813838 1
217 14 -4,6875649 172,2391 1,1656461 2
197 15 -4,8430794 164,44124 1,2862464 3
110 16 -3,5869787 184,72018 0,4066643 4
88 17 -4,5016176 162,84042 0,937286 5
51 18 -5,64748 135,42155 1,0867417 6
27 19 -6,7353076 108,01752 1,1826177 7
23 20 -7,1825528 92,337311 0,3909066 8
41 21 -7,5966672 76,87247 0,8968925 9
90 22 -7,4612615 71,983916 1,1030955 10
107 23 -7,2017155 69,713574 1,2178411 11
172 24 -3,4268057 138,01005 0,4764445 12
216 25 -2,3643229 155,83291 0,9458133 1
218 26 -1,9227518 162,3 1,1271051 2
193 27 -1,9417527 159,99723 1,2166841 3
120 28 -1,0036512 176,81751 0,4966666 4
99 29 -1,7150716 161,58545 0,9124998 5
59 30 -2,7903104 138,3656 1,0570352 6
33 31 -3,8748344 113,88482 1,1239923 7
37 32 -4,2299677 102,90731 0,4829547 8
59 33 -4,5701657 91,873386 0,8854687 9
95 34 -4,5444578 87,81738 1,0595107 10
128 35 -4,2383892 89,394294 1,154779 11
201 36 -0,9280669 151,36235 0,5674531 12
228 37 0,1424979 171,84558 0,9295991 1
79,814365 38 2
84,735647 39 3
83,717096 40 4
24,864433 41 5
57,048732 42 6
70,164703 43 7
77,46334 44 8
30,305254 45 9
60,160439 46 10
71,691885 47 11
77,389746 48 12

24

promedio t
Ao 1 ao2 ao3 ao4 yearly avg t
196 227 216 228 216,75 2,5
196 217 218 210,33333 6,5
173 197 193 187,66667 10,5
105 110 120 111,66667 14,5
75 88 99 87,333333 18,5
39 51 59 49,666667
13 27 33 24,333333
20 23 37 26,666667
37 41 59 45,666667
73 90 95 86
108 107 128 114,33333
191 172 201 188

0,8563334 1,0281064 1,0154875 1,1142759

0,8810329 1,0122326 1,0567696 0
0,8658681 1,0275887 1,05107 0 <--- specific seasonal indexes
0,8481457 0,9506448 1,1150096 0
0,7540254 0,9630368 1,1886315 0

0,8410811 0,9963219 1,0853936 0,2228552 <--- raw seasonals

1,0695159 1,2669195 1,3801828 0,2833819 <--- normalized seasonals
-8,0885417 236,97135

slope estimated by average of first diff's of yearly averages

level estimated by subtracting 2.5*(slope est.) from first year's average