SIMULATION FORECAST

Presented by:

RUBEN DARIO ACEVEDO PORTILLA

Tutor:

DANIELA ESTEFANIA MACHADO CARDENAS

SERVICIO NACIONAL DE APRENDIZAJE - SENA

TECNOLGIA DE GESTION LOGISTICA -1310124

COLOMBIA 2017
 INTRODUCTION

The following is the development of forecasts of a product of the company Gerdau Diaco,
by means of the appropriate methods for projection of short, medium and lagor term.
 English Activity No. 1

Forecasting Resultado de aprendizaje: Realizar intercambios sociales y prcticos muy

breves, con un vocabulario suficiente para hacer una exposicin o mantener una
conversacin sencilla sobre temas tcnicos de Forecasting

1. Elabore una simulacin pronostica de la demanda del producto o servicio segn su

proyecto de formacin. Tenga en cuenta los siguientes elementos:

a. Name of the company

GERDAU DIACO

b. Main business area

In Colombia, Gerdau Diaco produces long carbon steels. It has a wide line of products for
the sectors of civil construction and industry. It also offers, associated with products,
services that make its customers more competitive.

c. Seven steps to make a forecasting system:

1. Uses

In Gerdau Diaco the forecast is executed month by month to know the quantity to produce
and to have the level of stock necessary to cover the national demand of its products.

2. Items

In Gerdau Diaco, by means of the forecast made for the production, is fundamental to
have the quantity of stock necessary for the national demand. Among its products of
manufacture are, Steel Figurate, Angles, Flat Rods, Black Annealed Wire, Corrugated,
Bars, Smooth bars, Squares, U-channel, Grafil (Corrugated Wire), Transfer Boards,
Welded Mesh, Profile T, Corrugated Rolls, Platinas.
3. Time horizon

In Gerdau Diaco is made a monthly forecast of production, with bases to the demand of
its products in the national market. The labor capacity required to execute and the
purchase of inputs is also determined.

4. Model

In Gerdau Diaco works the forecast model, through the historical records of demand in
the national market.

5. Data gathering

In Gerdau Diaco seeks through the collaborative work of each supply chain, the best
complement to carry an analysis and accurate results of production forecasts.

6. Making

With the collaboration of information from Marketing, customer service and other links in
the supply chain, the forecasts are made by the historical ABC method of the last months,

7. Validation and Implementation

There are error measures to determine the validity of a forecast, so we make constant
comparisons between actual and forecast demand to determine how well (or how badly)
you are doing the calculations.

Generally the production forecast is calculated in a quantitative way with historical data,
and the resulting value is adjusted according to the intuition, experience and subjectivity
of the product or service connoisseurs, both from the strategic field and analysts, as well
as from the Sellers.
2. Grafique el pronstico y escriba las tendencias que tendr su producto o servicio
a corto, mediano y largo plazo.

Actual Demand for 2016 Product Year Round Corrugated 12MM * 6M in Gerdau Diaco is
the following.

PRODUCT FORECAST FOR NEXT PERIODS

Corrugated Round 12 mm * 6 meters

YEAR 2016 DEMAND TONS

JANUARY 1465
FEBRUARY 1300
MARCH 800
APRIL 1476
MAY 1200
JUNE 790
JULY 670
AUGUST 867
SEPTEMBER 945
OCTOBER 890
NOVEMBER 997
DECEMBER 1200
 DEMAND TONS OF RC 12MM*6M YEAR 2016

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

By means of the actual demand of the product Round corrugated 12 mm * 6 m, the

forecast of this product can be made for the next periods, short, medium and long term.

Through this registry a variability of the product is presented during the year 2016,
presented uniformity in demand throughout the year. The highest demand is in the month
of December and April.

RECAST 2017

STANDARD CORRELATION
MONTHS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 HALF LINEAR LOGARITMIC
DEVIATION COEFFICIENT

JANUARY 898 1245 987 1234 1465 1165,8 225,9 0,6178 1502,7 1390,2
FEBRUARY 780 1178 976 1109 1300 1068,6 199,4 0,5929 1359,9 1276
MARCH 789 1200 974 890 800 930,6 168,2 0,0733 844,2 914
APRIL 754 1100 912 965 1476 1041,4 272,7 0,5760 1434,1 1295
MAY 897 987 1209 876 1200 1033,8 161,3 0,2353 1182,3 1142
JUNE 799 926 1187 1200 790 980,4 201,9 0,0402 1057,2 1077
JULY 745 965 1010 978 670 873,6 154,8 0,0196 832,5 889
AUGUST 864 875 982 1060 867 929,6 88,0 0,1179 986,9 981
SEPTEMBER 854 899 912 890 945 900 33,1 0,6824 951,9 937
OCTOBER 896 789 868 987 890 886 70,8 0,1725 941,8 917
NOVEMBER 1087 897 897 934 997 962,4 80,8 0,0784 919,5 910
DECEMBER 1000 843 989 854 1200 977,2 144,5 0,2023 1100,5 1033
2017

The forecast for the year 2017 is described, through the historical data recorded in the
last 5 years.

To calculate this average applies, using the standard deviation, the correlation coefficient,
linear and logarithmic forecast as one of the most real methods based on historical data.

YEARS DEMAND TONS

2016 12600
2015 11977
2014 11903
2013 11904
2012 10363
2010 10876
2009 10879
2008 10245
2007 10134
2006 9897
AVERAGE LAST 4 YEARS 12096
FORECAST 2017 12636
FORECAST 2018 12733
FORECAST 2019 12789
 Forecast 2017- 2019
12850
12789
12800
Tonne forecasted

12750 12733

12700

12636
12650

12600

12550
2017 2018 2019

The forecast in the medium term, presents an ascending increases, based on the
projections of historical years.

The behavior is presented, taking the last four years, to look for the next period of 3 years,
as a measure of medium-term behavior.

3. Luego de recibir la evaluacin de su tutor, publique la evidencia respectiva en

una ventana del blog denominada Forecasting, in order to find the best result that
focuses on the reality of the national market.
 BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCE

Luna, J. (03 of 09 of 2015). Workshop 1 outlook Activity AA7. Retrieved 29 of 05 of 2017, from
You Tube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ncgv6JIxwUQ

Vela, A.P. (10 of 02 of 2016). FORECAST DEMAND 2 average, Smoothness, linear regression.
Retrieved 29 of 05 of 2017, from You Tube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBykf0y-
HU&t=729s