METODOS DE PREDICCIO

REGRESION LINEA
N AO Q(M3/S) ORDENANDO
1 1957 210.96 147.2705
2 1958 198.31 125.805
3 1959 348.02 125.233
4 1960 222.25 111.4005
5 1961 366.39 101.427
6 1962 283.71 96.028
7 1963 290.53 94.9535
8 1964 211.7 89.299
9 1965 239.66 88.852
10 1966 222.34 81.047
11 1967 295.01 80.6975
12 1968 203.445 76.419
13 1969 312.165 71.1825
14 1970 270.34 63.076
15 1971 315.12 56.9365
16 1972 303.44 56.69
17 1973 295.796 56.172
18 1974 252.95 55.314
19 1975 336.34 52.586
20 1976 364.53 43.941
REDICCION DE CAUDALES
ON LINEAL MULTIPLE
P (%)
2.5 REGRESION MULTIPLE
7.5
400
12.5
17.5 350
22.5 300
27.5 250
REGRESION MULTIPLE
32.5 200
37.5
150
42.5
47.5 100
52.5 50
57.5 0
62.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
67.5
72.5
77.5 400
82.5
350
87.5
92.5 300
97.5 250
200
Axis Title
150 Column G
Linear (Column G)
100
50
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Axis Title
POLINOMIOS ADAPTIVOS DE REGR
(MARS)
n X P(X) F(z)ordinario
1 95.05 0.0196 0.0591
2 98.13 0.0392 0.0739
3 100.18 0.0588 0.0849
4 101.66 0.0784 0.0934
5 101.76 0.0980 0.0940
6 105.21 0.1176 0.1158
7 105.81 0.1373 0.1199
8 106.4 0.1569 0.1239
9 107.43 0.1765 0.1312
10 107.62 0.1961 0.1326
11 108.75 0.2157 0.1408
12 110.77 0.2353 0.1562
13 114.31 0.2549 0.1850
14 116.69 0.2745 0.2055
15 119.52 0.2941 0.2310
16 123 0.3137 0.2637
17 123.22 0.3333 0.2658
18 124.31 0.3529 0.2763
19 127.82 0.3725 0.3109
20 128.15 0.3922 0.3142
21 132.49 0.4118 0.3580
22 134.1 0.4314 0.3744
23 136.22 0.4510 0.3961
24 144.22 0.4706 0.4771
25 145.79 0.4902 0.4927
26 146.08 0.5098 0.4956
27 153.64 0.5294 0.5679
28 153.97 0.5490 0.5709
29 154.8 0.5686 0.5786
30 156.8 0.5882 0.5966
31 158.48 0.6078 0.6114
32 162.29 0.6275 0.6439
33 164.35 0.6471 0.6607
34 169.18 0.6667 0.6981
35 169.64 0.6863 0.7015
36 177 0.7059 0.7524
37 182.53 0.7255 0.7862
38 183.11 0.7451 0.7895
39 183.49 0.7647 0.7916
40 184.98 0.7843 0.7999
41 193.78 0.8039 0.8435
42 193.88 0.8235 0.8440
43 197.58 0.8431 0.8598
44 207.78 0.8627 0.8963
45 208.18 0.8824 0.8976
46 212.48 0.9020 0.9102
47 217.52 0.9216 0.9231
48 239.07 0.9412 0.9614
49 256.62 0.9608 0.9785
50 266.54 0.9804 0.9846
DE REGRESION MULTIVARIADA
MARS)
 lnx T RESUMEN ESTADISTICO
4.5544 51.000
4.5863 25.500 Media 152.2476
4.6070 17.000 Mediana 145.935
4.6216 12.750 Desv. estnda 43.6124
4.6226 10.200 Suma lnx 249.3621
4.6560 8.500 Escala 4.9872
4.6616 7.286 Promedio 4.5891894
4.6672 6.375 Forma 0.277
4.6768 5.667 Suma 7612.38
4.6786 5.100 Cuenta 50
4.6891 4.636
4.7075 4.250
4.7389 3.923
4.7595 3.643
4.7835 3.400
4.8122 3.188
4.8140 3.000
4.8228 2.833
4.8506 2.684
4.8532 2.550
4.8865 2.429
4.8986 2.318
4.9143 2.217
4.9713 2.125
4.9822 2.040
4.9842 1.962
5.0346 1.889
5.0368 1.821
5.0421 1.759
5.0550 1.700
5.0656 1.645
5.0894 1.594
5.1020 1.545
5.1310 1.500
5.1337 1.457
5.1761 1.417
5.2069 1.378
5.2101 1.342
5.2122 1.308
5.2202 1.275
5.2667 1.244
5.2672 1.214
5.2861 1.186
5.3365 1.159
5.3384 1.133
5.3588 1.109
5.3823 1.085
5.4768 1.063
5.5476 1.041
5.5855 1.020