Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam
ISBN 978604821338-1
Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the
Hydrology of Peninsular Malaysia Watersheds
during 21st Century
M.L. KAVVAS(1), SU-HYUNG JANG(1), Z.Q. CHEN(2) , K. ISHIDA(1)
, A. ERCAN(1) , M.Z.M. AMIN(3), A.J. SHAABAN(3)
(1)
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
California, Davis, California, USA
mlkavvas@ucdavis.edu
(2)
California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, California,
USA
zhqchen@gmail.com
(3)
National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM),
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
ABSTRACT
In order to assess the impact of climate change on the
water balances and flooding conditions at 11 selected
watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) the calibrated
and validated, process-based distributed watershed
environmental hydrology- hydro-climate model WEHY-
HCM for each watershed utilized the 2010-2100 hydro-
climate data from 15 dynamically downscaled GCM
(ECHAM5, CCSM3 and MRI GCMs) projections (by
means of the regional hydro-climate model of Peninsular
Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)) and the dynamically
downscaled 1970-2000 historical control runs from 3
GCMs as its input at the scale of Peninsular Malaysia at
6km grid resolution and hourly intervals, and then
downscaled these climate inputs further to hillslope scale
(~0.5sqkm) over each selected watershed at hourly
intervals. The downscaled space-time precipitation water
was then routed through the surfaces and subsurface, and
the stream channel network of these watersheds.
Evapotranspiration from these watersheds was also
computed simultaneously in time and space by WEHY-
HCM. Ensemble averages of the annual mean flows of the
15 dynamically downscaled projections show increasing
trends for the 11 selected watersheds, especially in the
second half of the 21 st century. According to the statistical
tests that were performed, the impact of the expected
climate change in the 21st century on monthly mean flows
is statistically significant for all of the 11 selected
watersheds. The flood frequency analysis by means of the
annual peak flows during early (2010-2040), mid (2040-
2070) and end of 21st (2070-2100) century was carried out
at the 11 selected watersheds. In general, the annual peak
flows for various return periods increase towards the end
of the 21st century for the selected watersheds.
Keywords: Climate Change, WEHY-HCM, RegHCM-PM,
Watersheds, Change in flow
1. INTRODUCTION
The objective of the reported study was to assess the
impact of climate change on the water balances and
flooding conditions at 11 selected watersheds (Batu Pahat,
Johor, Muda, Kelang, Kelantan, Linggi, Muar, Pahang,
Perak, Selangor, and Dungun) of Peninsular Malaysia. In
order to achieve this objective the process-based spatially
distributed watershed environmental hydrology- hydro-
climate model WEHY-HCM was calibrated and validated
at each of the selected watersheds by means of historical
observations and model simulations. Then the WEHY-
HCM utilized the 2010-2100 hydro-climate data from 15
dynamically downscaled GCM (ECHAM5, CCSM3 and
MRI GCMs) projections (by means of the regional hydro-
climate model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)
(Shaaban et al. 2011)) and the dynamically downscaled
1970-2000 historical control runs from 3 GCMs as its input
at the scale of Peninsular Malaysia (PM). These climatic
inputs were then downscaled further by WEHY-HCM to
the scale of the hillslopes to route the water through the
selected watersheds. Based on these simulations the water
balances and flooding conditions at the 11 selected
watersheds were assessed for the 21 st century, and is
reported below.
2. CLIMATE SIMULATIONS OVER 11 SELECTED
WATERSHEDS OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
Three historical 20th century control runs and 15 21 st
century climate projections, corresponding to 4 emission
scenarios, from the MPI-ECHAM5, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and
CCSM3 GCMs, as shown in Table 1, were dynamically
downscaled by means of the regional hydro-climate
model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) (Shaaban
et al. 2011) at 6km grid resolution and hourly intervals
over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). The downscaled climatic
conditions over the region of PM were further
downscaled to hillslope scale (~0.5 sqkm) over the 11
selected watersheds of PM by WEHY-HCM in order to
study the flow and flooding conditions at these
watersheds during the 21 st century. The Peninsular
Malaysia region and the selected 11 watersheds in PM are
shown in Figure 1.
3. VALIDATION OF THE CLIMATE MODELING
The temperature and precipitation fields that were
reconstructed at 6 km grid resolution and 1 hour intervals
over PM by dynamical downscaling of MPI-ECHAM5,
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CCSM3 GCM historical control runs
during 1970 2000 by RegHCM-PM were then compared
to ground observations at 334 raingauge stations and 23
meteorological stations (for temperature) at those stations
and over the scale of the whole PM for modelling
validation. A typical example of the spatial rainfall
distribution comparison of the modelled ( the
dynamically downscaled precipitation from MPI-
ECHAM5, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CCSM3 GCM) versus
observed values is shown in Figure 2 below for the
averaged annual rainfall depths during the 1990 2000
period over PM. Figure 3 shows comparisons of the
RegHCM-PM downscaled GCM historical control run
simulations of grid area average annual precipitation
1
against observations at three representative gauging Figure 2. RegHCM-PM-simulated 10-year average annual
stations (the top plot is for Kuantan, the middle is for precipitation during 1990 2000, by dynamically downscaling the
Malacca and the bottom plot is for Mersing stations). control run data from CCSM3, ECHAM5 and MRI-CGCM2.3.2
global climate models, against observations
Figure 4 shows comparisons of the RegHCM-PM
simulations (dynamically downscaled from MPI- 4. VALIDATION OF WEHY-HCM
ECHAM5, MRI-CGCM2.3.2 and CCSM3 GCM) of grid
area average monthly average air temperature against The watershed environmental hydrology- hydro-climate
observations at three typical stations (Kuantan on top, model WEHY-HCM (Kavvas et al. 2012; Kure et al.
Malacca in the middle and Mersing at the bottom). 2012) is a coupled model of atmospheric and hydrologic
processes at watershed scale, based on the WEHY
As may be seen from Figures 2, 3 and 4 the dynamically watershed hydrology model (Kavvas et al. 2004; Chen et
downscaled precipitation and temperature are quite al. 2004a,b) that is coupled with the MM5 atmospheric
comparable to observations in time and space over model through the atmospheric boundary layer. The
Peninsular Malaysia. hydrologic component WEHY of WEHY-HCM is a
process-based, spatially-distributed model that is based
Table 1. - Global Climate Change Simulations Dynamically on spatially averaged governing equations of the surface
Downscaled Over Peninsular Malaysia and subsurface hydrologic processes that take place
within a watershed. A schematic description of the
Model Name Run ID Period WEHY-HCM is shown in Figure 5 below. The coupling of
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 20C 1970 - 2000 the land hydrologic processes with atmospheric processes
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 SRES A1B, B1 2010 - 2100 at the scale of a watershed within WEHY-HCM is shown
CCSM3 20C 1970 - 2000 in Figure 6 below. Description of the WEHY model
CCSM3 SRES A1B, A2 A1FI, B1 2010 - 2100 structure is given in Figures 7, 8 and 9 below. As may be
ECHAM5/MPIOM 20C_1 1970 - 2000 seen from these figures, WEHY model describes the
SRES A1B_1, A1B_2, interactive rill flow-sheet flow overland flow, both
ECHAM5/MPIOM A1B_3, A2_1, A2_2, 2010 - 2100 unsaturated and saturated (subsurface stormflow) soil
A2_3, B1_1, B1_2, B1_3 water flow, groundwater flow and channel network flow
within a watershed. It also describes evaporation,
evapotranspiration, interception and various
environmental processes (erosion, sediment transport,
nutrient transport, etc.).
8000
P re c ip ita tio n (m m )

6000

4000

2000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

8000 O b s e rv e d
P re c ip ita tio n (m m )

C C SM 3
6000 E C HAM 5
M R I
4000

2000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

8000
P r e c ip ita tio n ( m m )

Figure 1. Selected 11 watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia 6000

4000

2000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Figure 3. Comparisons of the RegHCM-PM downscaled GCM
historical control run simulations of grid area average annual
precipitation against observations at three representative gauging
stations (the top plot is for Kuantan, the middle is for Malacca and
the bottom plot is for Mersing stations).

WEHY-HCM was calibrated and validated by means of

comparing the model simulations against observations
during the 1970 2000 historical period. A typical model
validation example is shown in Figure 10 below for
Linggi watershed on the southwest of Peninsular
Malaysia (see Figure 1). The watershed configuration and
the existing observation stations in Linggi watershed are
shown in Figure 11.

2
Figure 4. Comparisons of the MM5 simulations of grid area
average monthly average air temperature against observations at
three typical stations
Figure 7. A structural description of the WEHY model; in this
figure MCU denotes the model computational unit which
corresponds to an individual hillslope within a watershed (from
Kavvas et al. 2004)

Figure 8. WEHY models depiction of hillslope discharges into a

neighboring channel (A: Overland Flow (Rill Flow/Sheet Flow), B:
Flow from Seepage Face (Subsurface Stormflow), C: Baseflow from
Groundwater, D: Channel Flow) (From Kavvas et al. 2004)

Figure 5. A schematic description of the watershed hydro-climate

model WEHY-HCM (from Kavvas et al. 2012)

Figure 9. WEHY models depiction of hillslope surface and

subsurface flow processes over a model computational unit (a
hillslope) (from Kavvas et al. 2004)

Figure 6. Interactive evolution of atmospheric processes aloft,

atmospheric planetary boundary layer, land surface processes and
surface and subsurface hydrologic processes, as modeled at a Figure 10. Validation results in hourly time series of the observed
hillslope in WEHY-HCM (from Kavvas et al. 2012) and model simulated stream discharge at the Sg. Linggi at Sua

3
Betong (station ID 2519421) in the Linggi watershed from July 1,
2005 through June 30, 2006
Figure 11. Location points for the ground rain gauges (circles) over
Lingi watershed and the Sg. Linggi at Sua Betong flow station
(triangle)
In the validation exercise, the WEHY watershed
component of WEHY-HCM that was calibrated for the
July 1, 2006 June 30, 2007 period, was then applied
directly to the July 1, 2005 June 30, 2006 period without
any model fitting. The model simulation comparisons
with the corresponding observations, as shown in Figure
10 are quite satisfactory. In fact, the WEHY model
showed similar performance in all of the 11 selected
major watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia.
Once the regional and watershed models were validated
by means of comparisons with the historical data, they
were then used to downscale the projections of the three
GCMs for the 21st century over Peninsular Malaysia.
5. PROJECTIONS OF 21ST CENTURY HYDROLOGY
OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA
In order to assess the impact of climate change on river
flows at the 11 selected watersheds of Peninsular
Malaysia (Batu Pahat, Johor, Muda, Kelang, Kelantan,
Linggi, Muar, Pahang, Perak, Selangor, and Dungun), the
WEHY-HCM watershed hydro-climate model that was
calibrated and validated over the 11 specified watersheds
then utilized the simulated 2010-2100 climate data from
15 RegHCM-PM regional climate model downscaled
projections, as listed in Table 1, as its input in order to
route the water through the surfaces and subsurface and
the stream channel network of these watersheds. The
dynamically downscaled climate data by RegHCM-PM
was at hourly time intervals and at 6km grid resolution
over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Over each of the
selected 11 watersheds the downscaled regional climate
data were further downscaled to hillslope scale (0.5 sqkm)
by WEHY-HCM in order to be utilized as input for the
hydrologic processes at each of the hillslopes (which are
model computational units (MCUs)) of a watershed. As
seen from Table 1, the 15 dynamically-downscaled hydro-
climate projections during 21 st century over the 11
selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia have
considered 3 different GCMs in order to account for
model uncertainty, 4 different emission scenarios in order
to account for scenario uncertainty, and 3 projections each
under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios by ECHAM5 GCM in
order to account for the effect of initial conditions on the
nonlinear global climate system simulation.
Figure 12a is a representative plot of the annual mean
flows resulting from the 15 dynamically downscaled
GCM projections (as listed in Table 1) over the Linggi
watershed during 2010-2100 and the ensemble average of
the dynamically downscaled historical control runs
during 1970-2000 at the same watershed. This figure
shows that each of the 15 projections may result in
different flow conditions in the selected watershed.
Therefore, selecting a limited number of projections may
undermine the flow analyses. Figure 12b shows the
corresponding ensemble averages with 10-year moving
average and 95% confidence band of the annual mean
flows for the 15 dynamically downscaled GCM
projections during 2010-2100 at the Linggi watershed as a
typical result. As may be seen from this figure, the annual
mean flows show an increasing trend toward the end of
21st century at Linggi watershed. This result is typical for
the selected 11 watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia.
Figure 12. Annual mean flows during the historical (1970-2000)
and the projected future (2010-2100) conditions for Linggi
watershed: a) Individual projections. b) Ensemble average of
projections with 10-year moving average and 95% confidence
band
In order to further explore the future water balances, the
future monthly mean flows for three thirty-year periods,
2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100, were compared
against the historical monthly mean flow of the 1970-2000
period. Since the future flow condition is uncertain, the
confidence bands are computed for the future monthly
mean flow at every watershed. The statistic
X
T
S
n 1
is distributed as student t distribution with a degree of
freedom given by
n 1
where X is the future sample mean monthly flow, S is
the sample standard deviation of future mean monthly
flow, n is sample size of future monthly mean flows for
each month of the year, is future population mean
monthly flow, and is the degrees of freedom (e.g. Hogg
and Craig, 1970). The confidence interval for a future
monthly mean flow can then be calculated as follows:
4
 t / 2, S t / 2, S
X X and becomes substantial for the 100-year return period.
n 1 n 1
where 1- is the confidence level.
The historical and future monthly mean flows and the
corresponding 95%confidence bands (1- =0.95) around
the future mean monthly flows are shown in the
representative Figure 13 for the Linggi watershed in
Peninsular Malaysia.
Figure 13. The historical (1970-2000) and the projected future
(2010-2040, 2040-2070, 2070-2100) mean monthly flows at Linggi
Watershed
As may be seen from Figure 13, the mean monthly flows
for the months of July, August, September and October
are significantly and increasingly larger than their
counterparts of the historical period. In fact, during the
last thirty years of the 21 st century (1970-2000) one can see
that the mean monthly flows are in general significantly
larger than their counterparts of the historical period,
with the difference increasing in the high-flow months.
Also a flood frequency analysis by means of the annual
maximum peak flows during early (2010-2040), mid
(2040-2070) and end of 21st (2070-2100) century was
carried out at the 11 selected watersheds of Peninsular
Malaysia (Batu Pahat, Johor, Muda, Kelang, Kelantan,
Linggi, Muar, Pahang, Perak, Selangor, and Dungun). As
a representative example, the frequency curves of annual
maximum peak flow for the projected future (2010-2040,
2040-2070, 2070-2100) conditions are shown for the Linggi
watershed of Peninsular Malaysia in Figure 14. From
Figure 14 one may infer that the annual maximum flood
flow discharge magnitude increases both with respect to
the length of the return period and with respect to the
time location within the 21 st century, showing clear
nonstationarity in the probabilistic structure of the flood
peak magnitudes in Linggi watershed during the 21 st
century. In other words, the frequency distribution of the
flood peak discharges evolves throughout the 21 st century
at the Linggi watershed. An interesting observation of the
behavior in Figure 14 is that for very short return periods
(1 to 2 years) the difference among the flood frequency
distributions, corresponding to different time locations
within the 21st century, is not significant. However, from
the 5-year return period onward, the difference in the
flood frequencies, corresponding to the time location
where they are estimated within the 21 st century, widens
This behavior brings with it the fundamental question
about the appropriateness of the standard flood
frequency analysis in estimating flood risks during the
21st century over Peninsular Malaysia since the behavior,
seen in Figure 14 for Linggi watershed is typical for the
selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia.
Figure 14. Frequency curves of annual peak flow for the projected
future (2010-2040, 2040-2070, 2070-2100) conditions at Linggi
Watershed
6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
In the reported study the impact of climate change on the
water balances and flooding conditions at selected
watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) during the 21 st
century was assessed. In this paper the application results
of this study are reported for Linggi watershed as
representative of the studys results. The study utilized 15
coarse-resolution GCM projections of the 21 st century
climate from 3 different GCMs under 4 different emission
scenarios and perturbed initial conditions in order to
construct the ensemble of projections. The study also
utilized 3 control simulations of the 1970-2000 historical
climate by the 3 GCMs for comparison purposes. All of
the GCM simulations were dynamically-downscaled first
to the region of Peninsular Malaysia by means of the
regional hydro-climate model of Peninsular Malaysia
RegHCM-PM at 6 km grid resolution and hourly
intervals. Then these regional climate simulation data
were further downscaled by the watershed hydro-climate
model WEHY-HCM to hillslope scale (~0.5 sqkm) since
each hillslope is a model computational unit (MCU) for
the WEHY watershed model component of WEHY-HCM.
Then by means of the hillslope-scale climate input data
the 1970-2000 historical and 2010-2100 future hydrologic
simulations were performed by WEHY-HCM in order to
assess the impact of the expected climate change on the
water balances and flooding conditions at each of the
selected watersheds. The modeling results, as
demonstrated by the application results for Linggi
watershed, show that there will be a gradual increase in
flow volumes over the Peninsular Malaysian watersheds
toward the end of 21 st century. However, the application
results also show that the flood flows will also intensify
toward the end of 21 st century. While, this study showed
increasing water volumes toward the future, it did not
consider the changing water demand in the selected
watersheds. In a future study the water surplus-deficit
conditions at the selected watersheds will be assessed
based on the already-projected hydrologic conditions and
the future water demands, to be determined at the
selected watersheds.
5
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