Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
for China
Dr. Miaojie Yu
NSD/CCER, Peking University, China
mjyu@ccer.edu.cn
May. 24, 2010
• Motivation
• Stylized Facts
• Driving Forces of Value Chain Upgrading
• Possible Mechanism of Value Chain Upgrading
• Future Research
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Macroeconomic Indicators
• Currently it is the second largest economy in the world.
– U.S. , China, Japan (PPP)
– Current GDP is $ 4.9 trillion
– Largest developing country in the world
– GDP per capital reach $4,000
• Secondary industry is the most important contributor for
China’s economy.
– Accounts for 47% of GDP
– Annual economic growth rate is 13% in the last decade.
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Understanding the Value-Chain Movement
• Two different scenarios.
• Moving up the value-chain across industries
– Rely more on manufacturing industry than primary industry
– Upgrading across different manufacturing industries
• Moving up the value-chain within industries
– Value-added upgrading
– Moving from assembly up to R&D and marketing
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Stylized Facts
• China is moving up across industries.
• China’s exporting activity is an ideal window to explore
China’s industrial upgrading
– A large open economy
– Openness ratio: 67% in 2007, 58% in 2008, 46% in 2009
– Largest exporter in the world
– Third largest importer in the world
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Stylized Facts
• Export-Oriented Development Strategy.
• Follows a dynamic track of comparative advantage
• China achieves its three leaps in foreign trade
– 1978-85: Oil Exports (Resource/Primary goods-focused)
– 1986-94: Textile (Labor-Intensive Industrial Age)
– 1995-2000: Machinery Exports ( Intra-industry Trade)
– 2001-Present: High Tech. Products Exports
• High Tech. Products Exports is an important feature of
China’s value chain upgrading.
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Intra-Industry Trade
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High-tech Export Growth
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Dynamic Track of China’s High-Tech Exports
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China’s High-Tech Exports: A Global View
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China’s High-Tech Exports by Field
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Why Can China Move Up?
• Theoretical Model
– H-O Model in the late 1980s
– Krugman (1979) in the late 1990s: Intra-industry trade
– Melitz (2003): firms with high productivity exports
– Brezis-Krugman-Tsiddon (1993):
• New technology does not initially seem to be an improvement
for leading nations, given their extensive experience with old
technologies
• If the new technique proves more productive than the old,
leadfrogging of leadership occurs
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Leapfrogging (Krugman et.al, 1993)
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Why Can China Move Up?
• Moving up across industries
– China had experienced dramatically trade liberalization over time
– China adopted the exported-oriented development strategy
• Three key reasons for China’s upgrading
– Firms have higher productivity over time
– Lower wages
– Growing size of domestic market
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Why Can China Move Up?
• Moving up within industries
– Move from low value-added assembly to higher value-added
activities
• Sequential Upgrading
– Feenstra-Hanson (1996): Outsourcing
– Grossman-Rossi-Hansberg (2008): Trading Task
– Hummels, Ishii, and Yi (2001)
– Brandt (2008)
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Feenstra-Hanson (1996)
Feenstra-Hanson (1996)
How to Move Up?
• Two important channels
– Processing Trade
– Inward FDI
• Processing export plays a key role for China’s foreign trade
• At least two ways to help firms move up the value chain:
– Quality Effects
– Love of Variety
– These two ways help firms foster productivity (Feenstra-Yu, 2010)
• China’s high-tech industries have sizable value-added
these years
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How to Move Up?
• Inward FDI also makes upgrading possible
• China’s manufacturing has distortion on factor
allocation (Hsieh-Klenow, 2009)
• But FDI releases firm’s credit constraint to reduce such
resource allocation (Feenstra-Li-Yu, 2010)
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Research Plan
• Data Description
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Future Research
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