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2010 8 S.K.S.

1km1km
11 22

(1)11
423,607,372 22 1
(2)11
1,520,747,548 22 1,520,747,548 (3)
11 232,043,300 22
381,234,397

11

II
English Abstract
Impact of Habitat Fragmentation on Conservation Network
Planning and Conservation Cost
by
Lin, Hui-Hsuan
June 2010

ADVISOR: Dr. Chien, Yu-Lan


DEPARTMENT: Institute of National Management
MAJOR: Natural Resource Management
DEGREE: Master of Arts
Since 1850 the global population has been growing fast, humans need for
natural resource and land increase tremendously. However, peoples improper
land use and global climate change have lead to natural habitat reduction and
fragmentation. Therefore this paper aims to combine theories of ecology and
economy to establish a new reserve network planning model. This model helps
to choose the reserves network that avoid further fragmentation and implement
less conservation land costs.
This study applies two models to estimate the conservation costs to
maintain current distinction bird biodiversity to three areas in Taiwan-
Yangming San National park, Centeral Mountain Northern Part, and Centeral
Mountain Southern Part. One model does not consider the factor of habitat
fragmentation and another does. The research results show that: (1) In
Yangming San National Park, the climate change causes the bird species to
reduce from 4 to 1 and incur serious habitat fragmentation, thus the
conservation costs approach infinite. (2) In Central Mountain Northern Part, the
climate change causes the bird habitat to concentrate towards the Central
Mountain, but the habitat in this area reduces and makes the conservation costs
increase much. (3) In Central Mountain Southern Part, the climate change causes
the bird habitat to concentrate towards the Central Mountain and also increase
habitat and species density, thus the conservation cost reduce.

Key wordhabitat fragmentationclimate changeconservation


networkopportunity cost of landdistinction bird of Taiwan

III

IV

VI

VII

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I .............................................................................44

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IV
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55

3 .....................................................................58

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V

1 ....................................................................................2
2 ................................................................................................6
3 ............................................................................7
4 ................................................................................................9
5 ..................................................................................24
6 ..................................................................................................25
7 ..........................................................................................25
8 ..............................................................................29
9 .......................................................31
10 .....................................................32
11 .....................................................33
12 j ..........................................................................34
13 11 ........................................................................36
14 22 ........................................................................37
15 ................................................................................42
16 ........................................................................46
17 ........................................................................48


1 ..................................................................13

VI
2 ...........16
3 ..................................................................21
4 ..............................................................................23
5 i t .................................................................34
6 ..................................................................................35
7 ...........................................39
8 ()............................40
9 ()............................41
10 ................................................................................43
11 .....................................................................45
12 .........................................................45
13 ................................................................47
14 .....................................................47
15 .................................................................49
16 .....................................................49
17 .............................52
18 .............................................52

VII

(Population
Reference BureauPRB)( 1) 1850 12.7
1650 2.54 2002 62.2 1950 2.47
2025 80
2050 93.5

72 1
( 29.16 )

(2007) 1994 2005


11
3 0.392
3.76IPCC(2007)
(urban heat
island)

1
1 0.00405
n
2
Shannon-Weaver H Pk ln( Pk ) Pk K k n
k 1

1
(Population Reference Bureau)
1

Opdam Wascher (2004)

IPCC 2007 2100


1.1-6.4 18-59
1
0.5 1.5(2008)(World
Wildlife Fund, WWF) 1998 2008
350 ( 242 16 16 14 2
2 61 )

Barbier et.al.1993)

1872
1984
8 19 17
32 9
19.5

2
The World Conservation Union, IUCN 1997



15 (

)1km1km

2020 2050 2100

1km1km
15

(2008)
3

(
)(
)()
GAMES(General Algebraic Modeling System)
(geographic information systemGIS)
1
(GIS) 15
2 GAMES
3
GIS 2


GIS
GAMS



GAMS

(habitat fragmentation)

(Lord et al.,1990Fahrig,2003) 3

()(matrix)

(patch)

Fahrig(1998)

(Fahrig,2003)

Wilcove et al.1986Fahrig2003

3 ()

(1)

6
(2)

(3)

(4)

(Fahrig,2003)

1. (1)(2)

Preston(1962)

S=cAz

S A c z

2. (spatial pattern)

(ecological process)

(2008)

(matrix-patch-corridor)

2003)

conduithabitatfilter

barriersourcesink

(Forman1995) 4
3. (metapopulation) Levins 1970
metapopulation
(2003)

conduithabitatfilterbarriersource
sink
Hess and Fisher2001

(disturbances)

(gaps)

(Donovan and Flather,2002)

(Gibbs,2001)

(Vos et al.,2001)

(Foppen et al.,1999)

(Kruess and Tscharntke,2000) (2005)

(hotspot)

(WWF) 2009

Climate Change and Species 10

1. 42 2050

75 2. 1998

16 2060

80% 3.

50 70%

4.

1970 14 2040

9
3 5.

89

6.

7.

8.

2080

80 9. 25-

32 36

10.

1983 66

75%

10

(2009) (

1) Flaspohler et al. (2010)

(richness)

(native species)

(exotic species)

(patch)

(home range)

(1)

(2) (

) (3)

(Murica C.,1995)

11



1. 74(Stratford and
Stouffer,1999)
2. (Tympanuchus cupido)
(Bartramia longicauda) 77 (Winter
and Faaborg,1999)
3. (Tragopan caboti) 10
(Dang and Zheng,2004)
1. (Seiurus aurocapillus)
(Villard et al.,1993)
2. (Petroica goodenovii) 100m

(Major et al.,1999)
3. (Tragopan caboti) 1000m (Dang
and Zheng,2004)
1. (Cyanocitta stelleri) (Catharus
ustulatus) (Certhia
americana) (Empidonax difficilis)
(Ixoreus naevius) (Brand and
George,2001)
2. Gates Gysel(1978)21

12


3. (Calyptorhynchus funereus)
(Saunders,1982)
4. (Parus carolinensis) (Parus
bicolor) (Dolby and
Grubb,1999)
2009

(fragmentation threshold)

(Accipiter gentilis)

(fine-grained)

(Dendroica cerulea)

(Strix occidentalis)

500 5000 (Carey et al.,1992)

13

()

Hammond(2002)

(ecosystem-based planning)(1)

(2)(3)

(4)

(5)

Margules & Pressey(2000)

14
(systematic conservation planning)

(representativeness)

(persistence)(1)

(2)(3)(4)

(5)(6)

(2008)

( 2020

2050 2100 )

007

1km1km

Basic Model 1 Model 2 Model 3

15
A2 6.9296 13.3196 33.2552 16.6565
B2 5.8049 11.0381 24.3226 7.3379
2008

1 10

NDVI 2

3 NDVI


J
Aj t Cj t
Mi nt 1
T j 1
( 2- 1)
(1 + r )t 1
s .t . Fi t Aj t Zi j t + M Ui t " i ,t ( 2- 2)
j

U
i
it I wt "i ( 2- 3)

Aj t Aj t + 1 "j ,t ( 2- 4)
Aj t {0, 1}
Zi j t {0, 1}
Ui t {0, 1}

Ajt t j 1 0
Cjt t j
wt t

16
Zijt t j i 1 0
Fit i t
M
Uit t i 0 1
I

(2-1) Ajt

Ajt 1 j t j

Cjt

(2-

2)

(2-3) t (2-

4)

17

32009

15

(MVP)

18

(minimum dynamic area,

MDA)(home rangeHR)

(minimum viable population, MVP)

(MDA)

(HR)(MVP)

Schoener(1968)(kg)(ha)

= [Body mass]1.14100(3-1)

(MVP)

(MDA) 3

19
3 (1ha=0.01km2)

family c
order (kg) (ha) (km2) (km)
Arborophila
0.345b 173,743.12 1737.43 41.68
Gallifor Phasianidae () crudigularis
mes Lophura
0.9467 b 549,173.24 5491.73 74.11
swinhoii
Syrmaticus
0.709 b 395,014.22 3950.14 62.85
mikado
Urocissa
0.231a 136,482.64 1364.83 36.94
Passerifo Corvidae caerulea
rmes Parus holsti
0.0164ab 6,686.34 66.86 8.18
Paridae
Actinodura
0.0318a 14,213.92 142.14 11.92
Timaliidae morrisoniana
Garrulax
0.0776 a 39,305.84 393.06 19.83
() morrisonianus
Heterophasia
0.0477 a 22,626.24 226.26 15.04
auricularis
Liocichla
0.0316a 14,141.40 141.41 11.89
() steerii
Yuhina
0.0123 a 4,786.32 47.86 6.92
brunneiceps
Pycnonotus
0.0286b 12,618.48 126.18 11.23
Pycnonotidae taivanus
Myophonus
0.1553 a 86,806.44 868.06 29.46
Turdidae insularis
Luscinia
0.0145 a 5,816.10 58.16 7.63
Muscicapidae johnstoniae
Bradypterus
0.0135 a 5,359.23 53.59 7.32
Sylviidae alishanensis
Regulus
0.0058 a 2,030.56 20.31 4.51
Reguliidae goodfellowi

a.b.
c. H.R.() MVP 0.01 MVP 5,846
7,252 (Reed et al.,2003)

20
(2005)

170.4m 637.3m 23.3

2400 3719.7

2400

1.55 23.3

MVP

(weight)

MDA MVP * HR * W, .(3-2)


()

(W)

15 1 .

4 Schoener(1968)

(kg)(ha) 3-1

3-1

2009

(2008)

21
4 (km2)

(2008)



1737.43 410 1666
()
5491.73 116 1666
3950.14 33 1666
1364.83 162 686
66.86 153 686
142.14 99 686

393.06 204 686
()
226.26 686 686

141.41 686 686
()
47.86 686 686
126.18 416 686
868.06 467 686
58.16 203 686
53.59 130 686
20.31 111 686
2009

22

()

( 5)

()

(carry capacity)

23

()

()( 7)

24

2008 1 2 3

3
3

I (2008)
3(4-1)(4-2)
4

(4-2) 4
(2km2km) 4 X
(4-3)4-
4) 3

A C
T jt jt

Mi n
j 1
t 1
( 4- 1)
(1 + r )
t 1

s .t
Fi t ( Aj t Zi j t Aj + 1,t Zi ,j + 1,t Aj + X ,t Zi ,j + X ,t Aj + ( X + 1) ,t Zi ,j + ( X + 1) ,t ) 4 + M Ui t ,
j

"i , t ( 4- 2)

U
i
it I wt "i ( 4- 3)

Aj t Aj t + 1 "j ,t ( 4- 4)

Aj t { 0, 1} , Zi j t { 0, 1} , Ui t { 0, 1} ( 4- 5)

25
Ajt t j 1 0
Cjt t j
wt t
Zijt t j i 1 0
Fit i t
X
M
Uit t i 0 1


Ajt
2km2km
(4-2) Ajt
Zijt4 A Z 0,1 4
1 4 4

r Stern (2007) 1.4%


(MDA)(MVP)
(home range)(W) MDA

3-2

26
HR
W

4 (2km2km)
GAMS
4
(2km2km)

II

4 (2km2km)

f
HR.W 4 4 1km*1km
I 4
8 II

f2
f *
4
2

II
f *I
f*

f* f

27

I II

8

HR
W
HR W
II

28

7 7 I

7 7
2020 2050
2100 91011)

7 7

HR.W
4( 5) I 2 2
( 12)

Stern (2007) 1.4%

29

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

10

31


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49


1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31 32 33 34 35

29 30 31 32 33 34 35

36 37 38 39 40 41 42

36 37 38 39 40 41 42

43 44 45 46 47 48 49

43 44 45 46 47 48 49

11

5 i t
Fit t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4
i=1 4 432 4 4
i=2 4 4 4 4
i=3 4 4 4 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)

8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)

15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)

22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)

29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)

36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)

43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)

()
12 j
()

GAMES(General Algebraic Modeling


System) 3(11 )
I(22 ) 3
13 33

I 4

13 1422
( 14) 11 ( 13)
( 6) 11
8,355 22 10,376

33
24%

6
()
11 8,355
24
22 10,376

34
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)
i1i2 i2 i1i2

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)
i1i2 i1i2

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i2

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1 i3 i1i2 i2 i3

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i3

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
i3 i3

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)
i3 i3 i3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i2 i1i2

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1i2 i1i2i3 i3 i1i2 i1i2i3 i3

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i3 i3
i1
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
i3 i3

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)

13 11

35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)
i1i2 i1i2 i1i2 i1i2

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i1i2 i1i2 i2

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1 i3 i1i2 i2 i3

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i3 i1 i3 i3

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)
i3 i3 i3 i3

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)
i3 i3


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200) (350) (300) (300) (400) (300) (200) (200)

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
(250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (400) (300) (200) (250)

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350) (400) (300) (200) (250) (200) (350) (350)
i1i2 i1i2 i2 i1i2

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
(400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250) (400) (300) (300) (250) (150) (300) (250)
i1i2 i1i2i3 i3 i1i2 i1i2i3 i3

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
(200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300) (200) (400) (200) (300) (250) (350) (300)
i1 i3 i3 i1 i1i3 i3

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
(150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250) (150) (200) (200) (250) (200) (200) (250)

43 44 45 46 47 48 49 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
(300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250) (300) (250) (200) (150) (200) (250) (250)

14 22

36

2009

1km1km ( 37,552 )
15 (

) A2 4(
2020 2050 2100 )
5(NDVI)
15 15

7()
4
A2
(IPCC,2000)
5
NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)-1 1

37

2100
35 2
30 20
40

7 (km2)
2020 2050 2100

1. 14,716 16,591 14,555 9,923


2. 11,169 12,607 11,359 7,771
3. 8,336 6,375 5,483 2,510
4. 7,864 10,874 9,273 6,969
5. 8,168 10,761 9,783 6,301
6. 3,176 8,771 7,595 3,947
7. 2,439 5,803 4,800 1,965
8. 12,192 14,438 12,870 8,523
9. 8,448 11,424 10,354 6,532
10. 10,834 12,566 11,280 7,173
11. 2,513 17,493 11,777 7,265
12. 14,851 16,897 14,674 10,154
13. 3,799 6,229 5,192 2,214
14. 4,012 7,809 6,680 3,231
15. 1,350 5,359 4,402 1,701

38

2020
2020 2050 2050 2100
2020

15
2100

8
2020 23.5%
596.1%2020 2050
32.7%2100 2050

61.4%

8 ()
2020 - 2050-2020 2100-2050
(km )
2
(%) (km ) 2
(%) (km2) (%)

1. 1,875 12.7 -2,036 -12.3 -4,632 -31.8


2. 1,438 12.9 -1,248 -9.9 -3,588 -31.6
3. -1,961 -23.5 -892 -14.0 -2,973 -54.2
4. 3,010 38.3 -1,601 -14.7 -2,304 -24.8
5. 2,593 31.7 -978 -9.1 -3,482 -35.6
6. 5,595 176.2 -1,176 -13.4 -3,648 -48.0
7. 3,364 137.9 -1,003 -17.3 -2,835 -59.1
8. 2,246 18.4 -1,568 -10.9 -4,347 -33.8
9. 2,976 35.2 -1,070 -9.4 -3,822 -36.9
10. 1,732 16.0 -1,286 -10.2 -4,107 -36.4
11. 14,980 596.1 -5,716 -32.7 -4,512 -38.3
12. 2,046 13.8 -2,223 -13.2 -4,520 -30.8
13. 2,430 64.0 -1,037 -16.6 -2,978 -57.4
14. 3,797 94.6 -1,129 -14.5 -3,449 -51.6
15. 4,009 297.0 -957 -17.9 -2,701 -61.4

9 2050 34.2%
368.6% 2100
69.9%
189.1%2020 2100

39
68.3%

9 ()
2050- 2100- 2100-2020
(km ) 2
(%) (km ) 2
(%) (km2) (%)

1. -161 -1.1 -4793 -32.6 -6668 -40.2


2. 190 1.7 -3398 -30.4 -4836 -38.4
3. -2853 -34.2 -5826 -69.9 -3865 -60.6
4. 1409 17.9 -895 -11.4 -3905 -35.9
5. 1615 19.8 -1867 -22.9 -4460 -41.4
6. 4419 139.1 771 24.3 -4824 -55.0
7. 2361 96.8 -474 -19.4 -3838 -66.1
8. 678 5.6 -3669 -30.1 -5915 -41.0
9. 1906 22.6 -1916 -22.7 -4892 -42.8
10. 446 4.1 -3661 -33.8 -5393 -42.9
11. 9264 368.6 4752 189.1 -10228 -58.5
12. -177 -1.2 -4697 -31.6 -6743 -39.9
13. 1393 36.7 -1585 -41.7 -4015 -64.5
14. 2668 66.5 -781 -19.5 -4578 -58.6
15. 3052 226.1 351 26.0 -3658 -68.3

40

15 () 1km 1km

2020 2050 2100


4 2km 2km

( 8)
37,552 76,000 ( 200 380
)


15
()

(MDA)
15 (2008)
( 10)(MVP)

(MVP)
(order) 10

10 (km2)
2020 2050 2100
1. 1664 1664 1664 1664
2. 1664 1664 1664 1664
3. 1664 1664 1664 1664
4. 688 688 688 688
5. 688 688 688 688
6. 688 688 688 688
7. 688 688 688 688
8. 688 688 688 688
9. 688 688 688 688
10. 688 688 688 688
11. 688 688 688 688
12. 688 688 688 688
13. 688 688 688 688
14. 688 688 688 688
15. 688 688 688 688
2008


2007

I GAMS
76,000
() 38,000

I
4
I

10 4 4

11,455 (114.55 )
I 182 ( 13
14 ) 9 ( 11) 4
2020 2050 2100
1
2020 2050
2100 1
2100 4

11 (km2)
2020 2050 2100

1. 115 117 67 0
2. 19 52 19 0
3. 0 0 0 0
4. 161 127 73 0
5. 1 16 0 0
6. 0 0 0 0
7. 0 0 0 0
8. 0 68 35 0
9. 0 22 1 0
10. 0 38 8 0
11. 0 175 157 11
12. 154 133 80 0
13. 0 0 0 0
14. 0 0 0 0
15. 0 0 0 0

12 (km2)
2020 2050 2100

1. 12 12 12 0
2. 4 4 4 0
3. 0 0 0 0
4. 12 12 12 0
5. 4 4 0 0
6. 0 0 0 0
7. 0 0 0 0
8. 0 4 8 0
9. 0 4 0 0
10. 0 4 4 0
11. 0 4 4 4
12. 8 8 8 0
13. 0 0 0 0
14. 0 0 0 0
15. 0 0 0 0

16 45 35 (1,575 )
13 1
1


16
13 (km2)
2020 2050 2100

1. 1184 1243 1310 1210
2. 993 1170 1192 1060
3. 1201 958 872 389
4. 159 415 496 716
5. 959 1149 1152 927
6. 186 1200 1107 621
7. 443 950 815 309
8. 1313 1315 1328 1134
9. 1186 1230 1210 954
10. 1310 1314 1272 1018
11. 0 228 320 530
12. 771 1146 1228 1206
13. 651 998 859 352
14. 784 1142 1027 507
15. 279 898 753 265

14 (km2)
2020 2050 2100

1. 132 132 132 132
2. 148 148 148 148
3. 240 240 240 240
4. 12 12 12 12
5. 80 80 80 80
6. 40 40 40 40
7. 124 124 124 124
8. 72 72 72 72
9. 96 96 96 96
10. 80 80 80 80
11. 0 8 8 8
12. 32 32 32 32
13. 116 116 116 116
14. 132 132 132 132
15. 140 140 140 140

17 53 32 (1,696 )
15 15
14
2050

2100 10


17

15 (km2)
2020 2050 2100

1. 1099 1320 1417 1532
2. 1000 1290 1367 1386
3. 1486 1190 1100 653
4. 82 316 407 770
5. 956 1339 1386 1254
6. 896 1435 1364 941
7. 748 1142 1025 514
8. 1339 1457 1521 1464
9. 1331 1437 1473 1295
10. 1342 1501 1532 1358
11. 84 108 175 476
12. 644 1177 1308 1520
13. 1092 1199 1078 580
14. 641 1368 1278 798
15. 437 1088 973 445

16 (km2)
2020 2050 2100

1. 124 124 124 124
2. 144 144 144 144
3. 296 296 296 296
4. 8 8 8 8
5. 80 80 80 80
6. 192 192 192 192
7. 208 208 208 208
8. 72 72 72 72
9. 108 108 108 108
10. 84 84 84 84
11. 20 20 20 20
12. 28 28 28 28
13. 196 196 196 196
14. 108 108 108 108
15. 220 220 220 220

3(11
) I(22 )
17 11
22 4
(2100 )
311 I22 1
14

311 I22
18

11 423,607,372 22
1
11 1,520,747,548 22
15,165,602
11 232,043,300 22
399,449,245

17




311 I22

27,344,000 450,945,372
( 182 ) ( 4 ) ( 1 ) ( 1 )
12,800,000 1,533,547,548 421,421,928
( 1575 ) ( 14 ) ( 14 ) ( 14 )
428,912,000 196,868,700 47,677,603
( 1696 ) () () ( 14 )

18


311 I22
423,607,372
( 182 )
1,520,747,548 408,621,928
( 1575 )
-232,043,300 -381,234,397
( 1696 )



3(11 ) I(22
)

11
22

11

I
22

II

2008

2008

2005

2008424 34-43

2005

2003-

200929 6 3181-
3187

2008

2007
48 1-18

2009
---
(III)NSC97-2625-M170-002

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