Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340

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Global and Planetary Change

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Evolution of glacial lakes from the Northern Patagonia Iceeld and terrestrial water
storage in a sea-level rise context
Thomas Loriaux , Gino Casassa
Centro de Estudios Cientcos (CECs), Av. Prat 514, Valdivia, Chile

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: An increase of glacial lake area of 66.0 km2 has been measured at the periphery of the Northern Patagonia
Received 1 August 2012 Iceeld (NPI) between 1945 and 2011. Results have been obtained by digitizing the glacial lakes from
Accepted 24 December 2012 Lliboutry's topographic map and from various multitemporal Landsat satellite scenes (1976, 1987, 2001
Available online 31 December 2012
and 2011). This rst complete glacial lake inventory of the NPI indicates a total lake area of 167.5
8.4 km 2 for 2011, which represents an increase of 64.9% with respect to the total glacial lake area of the
Keywords:
Patagonia
NPI in 1945 (101.6 19.1 km 2). The highest area increase was experienced by the San Quintn Lake with
glacial lake an expansion of 18.0 km 2 in the 19452011 period. Using a volumearea scaling model, a total volume in-
terrestrial water storage crease of 4.8 km 3 is estimated for the entire glacial lake population in the 66-year period. Based on the vol-
sea level rise umetric increase of the glacial lakes we compute a terrestrial water storage factor of 10% of the contribution
of NPI to sea-level rise for the last decade (20012011), which is considered as a lower bound since lakes that
have lost contact with the ice are not considered in the inventory. The increasing risk of Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods (GLOF's) due to the glacial lake enlargement is also discussed.
2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction using eld determination of trimlines and terminal moraines. They

The Northern Patagonia Iceeld (Fig. 1, 47.0S, 73.5W) represents,
combined with the Southern Patagonia Iceeld (50.0S, 73.5W), the
largest temperate ice mass in the southern hemisphere, with 3953 km2
(Rivera et al., 2007) and 12,514 km2 (Casassa et al., 2012), respectively
(Aniya et al., 1996). Several studies highlight the large contribution of
glaciers to sea level rise (SLR) due to the ice loss observed globally in re-
cent decades and mainly drove by climate warming. Warming has also
been reported for Patagonia (Rosenblth et al., 1995; Ibarzabal et al.,
1996; Carrasco et al., 2002; Rasmussen et al., 2007), with rapid retreat
and thinning of glaciers with a contribution to sea level rise which is dis-
proportionately high in relation to its area as compared to other regions
such as Alaska (Rignot et al., 2003). Among others, Aniya (1999) have
computed the contribution of NPI to SLR between 1945 and 1996 at
0.0105 0.0043 mm/year based upon direct measurements of ice
elevation and areal changes experienced mainly in the ablation area.
Rignot et al. (2003) found an ice-loss contribution of NPI of 0.008
0.001 mm/year to SLR (inferred from the published results), by com-
parison of digital elevation models (DEMs) for the 19752000 period.
Rivera et al. (2007) estimate a SLR for NPI of 0.013 0.006 mm/year
by DEM comparison and satellite imagery analysis. Williams et al.
(1997) added speed and surface melt conditions to DEM analysis to
nd a SLR rate of 0.009 0.0002 mm/year between 2000 and 2011 for
NPI. Glasser et al. (2011) have modelled the ice-loss of NPI since 1870
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: thomas@cecs.cl (T. Loriaux).
compare contemporary glacier extents to former ones during the Little
Ice Age (LIA) and nd a lower sea-level contribution of 0.0018
0.0004 mm/year between 1870 and 2004, showing an acceleration of
the ice-loss rate in the last decades.
In each one of these studies, the ice volume lost by the NPI is di-
rectly converted into sea-level rise. In the glaciological community
there has been very limited discussion regarding the amount of melt-
water stored in the terrestrial hydrological system, such as wetlands,
rivers, groundwater and lakes. Willis et al. (2012) mention the terres-
trial water storage (TWS) in their discussion, but without giving nei-
ther quantitative nor qualitative estimations.
In this paper we introduce the concept of Lacustrine Water Stor-
age (LWS), a component of the TWS due to the partial ow of melt-
water into glacial lakes located for example around all of the NPI.
The main aim is to quantify the volume of water which is transferred
from the NPI to the glacial lakes, thus increasing the area and volume
of these water bodies, therefore without affecting in consequence the
SLR.
LWS is especially relevant in the NPI since the majority of the glaciers
are calving into proglacial lakes while San Rafael is the only tidewater
calving glacier (Aniya et al., 2007; Rivera et al., 2007). Most of these
lakes have formed due to the glacier retreat occurring since the LIA, as
meltwater oods the glacially-eroded valleys (Haresign and Warren,
2005; Harrison et al., 2008). Our hypothesis is that the glacial lakes are
enlarging due to the glacier termini recession and are storing an increas-
ing part of the meltwater originating from the NPI. We base the hypoth-
esis on several studies showing the close link between glacier retreat

0921-8181/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.12.012
34 T. Loriaux, G. Casassa / Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340

Fig. 1. The Northern Patagonia Iceeld (NPI), Chile. False-color composite of Landsat ETM + satellite images, bands 1 (red), 4 (green) and 5 (blue), acquired on March 11, 2001.
Glacier outlines are from the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space dataset (GLIMS), available through the US National Snow and Ice data Center (http://nsidc.org). Glacial
lakes are shown in yellow and control lakes (i.e. not in contact with ice) in red. White labels represent some of the main outlet glaciers of NPI.

and glacial lake enlargement in Patagonia, the Himalayas, the Alps and
the Caucasus (Vallon, 1989; Warren et al., 2001; Petrakov et al., 2007;
Bajracharya and Mool, 2008; Tartari et al., 2008; Frey et al., 2010;
Gardelle et al., 2011; Tsutaki et al., 2011).
To try to prove this hypothesis we use topographic map of the NPI as
well as satellite scenes in order to: (1) create a complete chronological
inventory of the glacial lakes, (2) determine changes in their area, and
(3) estimate the related volume of water stored in the glacial lakes.
This inventory represents an update of the current data base and
of the knowledge concerning the glacial environment in Patagonia.
The monitoring of glacial lakes is crucial in a region exposed to natu-
ral hazards such as sudden drainages. Patagonia has already experi-
enced many Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOFs) events, as reported
by Dussaillant et al. (2010). The volume of water stored in a potential-
ly hazardous lake is a key parameter to evaluate the consequences of
an abrupt emptying (Huggel et al., 2002).
2. Material and methods
2.1. Lliboutry map
1945 which represents the rst complete remotely-sensed coverage of
the NPI. The survey was conducted in mid-summer and covers all the
surrounding area of the NPI, allowing to easily distinguish lakes from
ice and land.
2.2. Satellite imagery
Four Landsat scenes between 1976 and 2011 were used to com-
plete the time-series inventory of the glacial lakes from NPI. Each
one was selected for its minimum cloud-cover and with a late sum-
mer acquisition date, allowing to adequately discriminate the differ-
ent surface boundaries such as ice/snow, glacier/rock, glacier/lake
and lake/oating ice.
Two Landsat MSS scenes acquired on February 25th, 1976, and on
February 9th, 1987, were used for the lake delineation, as well as two
Landsat ETM + scenes acquired on March 11th, 2001, and on February
19th, 2011 (Table 1). MSS and ETM + scenes were orthorectied by
the United States Geological Survey (USGS). All the Landsat scenes
were obtained as Level 1 Product from the online USGS data loader
Global Visualization Viewer (GLOVIS).

The entire NPI is covered by the 1:500,000 scale map published by 2.3. Glacial lake denition
Lliboutry (1956) in his book Nieves y Glaciares de Chile (Snows and Gla-
ciers from Chile). This map is based upon the Trimetrogon aerial photo- The rst step to set up our inventory was to precisely dene which
graphic survey carried out by the U.S. Air Force in JanuaryFebruary of lakes should be incorporated. Here we have chosen to restrict the eld
 T. Loriaux, G. Casassa / Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340 35

Table 1 epoch (Trimetrogon aerial photograph or satellite image) physically in

Landsat images used in this study. A panchromatic ETM + band was available with a contact with the ice but thereafter lost contact with the ice and appear
spatial resolution of 15 m.
in a future satellite image in deglaciated terrain, are only inventoried
Spacecraft Acquisition Sensor Bands used Ground Source in the 1st epoch and not in the 2nd epoch.
date resolution In parallel, various lakes without physical contact with ice but
(m)
near the NPI were also analyzed in order to compare their variation
Landsat 2 1976/02/25 MSS 4, 5 and 6 60 USGS with the two types of glacial lakes previously cited. They are generally
Landsat 5 1987/02/09 MSS 4, 5 and 6 60 USGS
located downstream in the valleys of outlet glaciers. These lakes lo-
Landsat 7 2001/03/11 ETM+ 1, 4, 5 and 8 30 USGS
Landsat 7 2011/02/19 ETM+ 1, 4, 5 and 8 30 USGS cated in presently deglaciated terrain are called here control lakes
since they tend to be more stable than glacial lakes in regard to
their size changes.
of investigation to the glacial lakes physically in contact with the NPI.
The lakes in direct contact with the glaciers are generally those that 2.4. Glacial lake delineation
have experienced the greatest changes (Rivera et al., 2007; Tartari et
al., 2008). We have identied two sorts of glacial lakes: (1) moraine- Various methods of semi-automatic delineation of lakes have been
dammed lakes, which are located adjacent to the terminus of the glacier set up using analysis of multispectral satellite imagery. Band ratios
and dammed by a frontal moraine; and (2) ice-dammed lakes, which and index as normalized difference water index (NDWI) have been de-
are blocked by ice, located in a tributary valley or in a marginal depres- veloped to discriminate water-surface from ice or land (DeAlwis et al.,
sion on the side of a glacier (Fig. 2). Thus, lakes which were in a former 2007; Bolch et al., 2008; Frey et al., 2010; Gardelle et al., 2011).

Fig. 2. Glacial lakes (yellow outlines) on the eastern margin of the NPI. Nef and Cachet I lakes are moraine-dammed. Cachet II Lake is ice-dammed by the Colonia glacier. Arco and
Colonia lakes are presently not in contact with a glacier and are classied as control lakes (red outline).
36 T. Loriaux, G. Casassa / Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340

Fig. 3. The glacial lake located at the terminus of the Reichert Glacier, northwestern margin of NPI. A. False color composite of Landsat ETM+images, bands 1 (red), 4 (green) and 5 (blue),
acquired on March 11, 2001. B. Ratio R=Bgreen/BNIR.

However, manual delineation of the total glacial-lake population
proved to be more accurate than semi-automatic schemes because of:
(1) the high variability of spectral signature of lakes; (2) the presence
of icebergs; and (3) the mis-classication of shadows. The entire digiti-
zation of the glacial lakes was carried out by hand using a false color
composition of bands 6, 5 and 4 for the Landsat MSS scenes and bands
5, 4 and 1 for the Landsat ETM+ scenes. The spectral variability of the
glacial lakes is mainly due to their turbidity difference, since the reec-
tance in the visible and near infrared bands increases with the load of
suspended sediments (Gardelle et al., 2011). Furthermore, the shadow
areas, which are common in mid-latitude mountain regions such as
Patagonia, have a spectral signal very similar to glacial lakes with low
turbidity (Gardelle et al. 2011). Shadow areas and low turbidity glacial
lakes were discriminated computing a slope map of 1 1 pixel

Table 2
Compiled data on glacier lake area and volume, alphabetically ordered by country.

Lake Type of lake Country Area Volume Mean Depth Reference

(m, 106) (m, 106) (m)

1 MT' Lake Ice-dammed Canada 0.042 0.50 12.0 Blown and Church (1985)
2 Nostetuko Lake Moraine-dammed Canada 0.262 7.50 28.6 Clague and Evans (1994)
3 Between Lake Ice-dammed Canada 0.400 7.50 18.8 Maag (1963)
4 Cachet II Ice-dammed Chile (NPI) 4.045 200.00 49.4 Casassa et al. (2010)
5 Leones Moraine-dammed Chile (NPI) 19.501 2454.61 125.9 Harrison et al. (2008)
6 Nef Moraine-dammed Chile (NPI) 5.133 770.71 150.1 Warren et al. (2001)
7 Lac dArsine Moraine-dammed France 0.034 0.53 15.7 Vallon (1989)
8 Lac dArsine Moraine-dammed France 0.059 0.80 13.6 Vallon (1989)
9 Gjanupsvatn Ice-dammed Iceland 0.600 20.00 33.3 Costa and Schuster (1988)
10 Petrov lake Moraine-dammed Kyrgyztan 3.900 63.96 16.4 Jansky et al. (2009)
11 Petrov lake Moraine-dammed Kyrgyztan 1.630 20.00 12.3 Sevast'yanov and Funtikov (1981)
12 Petrov lake Moraine-dammed Kyrgyztan 3.660 53.40 14.6 Engel et al. (2012)
13 Petrov lake Moraine-dammed Kyrgyztan 3.800 59.20 15.6 Engel et al. (2012)
14 Petrov lake Moraine-dammed Kyrgyztan 3.880 62.00 16.0 Engel et al. (2012)
15 Abmachimai Co Moraine-dammed Nepal 0.565 19.40 34.3 Meon and Schwarz (1993)
16 Quangzonk Co Moraine-dammed Nepal 0.753 21.00 27.9 Meon and Schwarz (1993)
17 Imja Lake Moraine-dammed Nepal 0.600 28.00 46.7 Yamada (1992)
18 Imja Lake Moraine-dammed Nepal 0.864 35.80 41.4 Fujita et al. (2009)
19 Imja Lake Moraine-dammed Nepal 1.010 35.50 35.1 Fujita et al. (2009)
20 Thulagi Moraine-dammed Nepal 0.760 31.75 41.8 ICIMOD (2011)
21 Thulagi Moraine-dammed Nepal 0.940 35.30 37.6 ICIMOD (2011)
22 Tsho Rolpa Moraine-dammed Nepal 1.650 90.75 55.0 Yamada (1992)
23 Laguna Parn Moraine-dammed Peru 1.600 75.00 46.9 Lliboutry et al. (1977)
24 Mt Elbrus Lake Ice-dammed Russia 0.089 0.55 6.2 Petrakov et al. (2007)
25 Bashkara Lake Moraine-dammed Russia 0.065 0.74 11.3 Petrakov et al. (2007)
26 Crusoe-Baby Lake Ice-dammed Switzerland 0.017 0.08 4.7 Maag (1963)
27 Gruben Lake 3 Ice-dammed Switzerland 0.021 0.15 7.1 Kb (1996)
28 Gruben Lake 1 Moraine-dammed Switzerland 0.023 0.24 10.4 Kb (1996)
29 Ice Cave Lake Ice-dammed USA 0.004 0.01 2.9 Maag (1963)
30 Summit Lake Ice-dammed USA 5.000 250.00 50.0 Mathews and Clague (1993)
31 Phantom Lake Ice-dammed USA 6.000 500.00 83.3 Maag (1963)
 T. Loriaux, G. Casassa / Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340 37

1.2 km2. Of the 137 lakes in 2011, 67 were ice-dammed and 70 were
moraine-dammed. In terms of area, the moraine-dammed lakes are
larger, with 133.0 km2, that is 79% of the total glacial lake area (Table 3).
The lake area error estimation of 8 km2 is based on the 1 pixel
size uncertainty for the lake delineation for each satellite scene
(Williams et al., 1997), i.e. 60 m for both 1976 and 1987 scenes. In the
case of the 2001 and 2011 imagery, the available panchromatic band
was used to increase the spatial resolution due to its smaller pixel size
(15 m), so a 15 m delineation error results. After superimposing the
panchromatic band to the false color image, we have applied a 1030%
transparency in order to preserve the multi-band information. For
the map of Lliboutry, according to his assessment (Lliboutry, 1956,
pp 353357), we have xed the lake delineation error to be 150 m.
Fig. 4. Regression analysis between compiled data of volume and area of 31 glacial lakes
shown in Table 2. The blue triangles represent glacial lakes from NPI.
3.2. Area and volume changes in 19452011

A total lake area increase of 66.028.1 km2 is found between 1945

resolution (nominally 90 90 m) from the Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) DEM of the year 2000. At the same time, a ratio R of
the green band (Bgreen) and near infrared (NIR) band (BNIR) (Eq. (1),
Wessels et al., 2002; Gardelle et al., 2011) was computed to apply a
last check of our lake inventory.
and 2011, i.e. a 65% increase with respect to the 1945 area. This represents
a lake-area increase rate of 1.0 km2/year for the 66-year period. The most
important changes are registered for the San Quintn and Steffen
moraine-dammed lakes with area increases of 18.0 km2 and 9.0 km2, re-
spectively. The general evolution of the areas is not constant in the overall
period and we note relative stability between 1945 and 1987 with an

R Bgreen =BNIR : 1
Table 3
Glacial lake inventory for year 2011.
The ratio R allows to distinguish water from non-water surfaces,
Glacier basin Type of Margin of Area Perimeter Volume Year of
and is useful when shadows appear on the margins of a lake, although dam the NPI (km) (km) (km) apparence
it could render the limit between ice and lake unclear, especially in
Verde Moraine North 1.4 6.1 0.0 1945
the case of calving tongues (Fig. 3). Grosse Moraine North 2.1 7.8 0.1 1945
** Moraine North 0.7 3.8 0.0 1945
2.5. Glacial lake volume estimation ** Moraine North 1.5 5.4 0.0 1945
Exploradores Ice North 0.7 3.9 0.0 2011
Bayo Ice North 0.9 5.2 0.0 1976
Water volume constitutes fundamental data to estimate the ter-
Colonia Ice East 1.1 4.4 0.0 2001
restrial water storage and the potential of glacial lake hazards. How- Colonia Moraine East 2.6 7.7 0.1 1976
ever, it cannot be directly derived from satellite sensors. Due to the Colonia Ice East 4.5 19.0 0.2 1945
lack of eld measurements of water depth, an empirical approach of Cachet Moraine East 4.2 12.3 0.2 1945
volumearea scaling was chosen to determine a relationship between Nef Moraine East 5.5 11.6 0.3 1945
U7 Moraine East 0.9 4.5 0.0 1945
lake area and volume. Field data of water depth and volume are avail- ** Moraine East 0.9 8.1 0.0 1945
able for 3 glacial lakes in NPI (Leones, Nef and Cachet II, Table 2). In Hyades Moraine East 2.4 10.4 0.1 1945
addition, area and volume data from 28 glacial lakes around the Leones Moraine East 19.8 25.9 2.0 1945
world have been collected from published sources (Table 2). A similar Fiero Moraine East 6.6 15.8 0.4 1945
Pissis Moraine South 1.2 6.2 0.0 1945
volumearea scaling model was used by Huggel et al. (2002) to deter-
U3 Moraine South 4.3 12.3 0.2 1945
mine the water volume of several glacial lakes in the Swiss Alps. The Pared Norte Moraine South 4.3 13.5 0.2 1945
data in Fig. 2 correspond to calving lakes dammed by a moraine or by Steffen Moraine South 9.8 23.8 0.7 1976
a glacier, similar in nature to the NPI lakes, although their size is in the Steffen Ice South 4.6 12.9 0.2 1945
lower range of the NPI lakes. Steffen Ice South 3.8 10.7 0.2 1945
Acodado Ice West 1.4 5.6 0.0 1945
According to the regression analysis between area (A) and volume Acodado Moraine West 2.4 8.9 0.1 1976
(V) (Fig. 4): Acodado Moraine West 5.0 12.8 0.3 1976
Benito Moraine West 0.9 6.7 0.0 1976
1:3324
V 0:2933A 2 Benito Moraine West 0.7 3.8 0.0 1945
Benito Ice West 0.9 7.6 0.0 1976
Fraenkel Moraine West 2.3 9.2 0.1 1976
which exhibits a very high coefcient of determination (R 2 = 0.96). San Quintin Ice West 0.6 4.3 0.0 1945
San Quintin Moraine West 2.7 9.7 0.1 1945
3. Results San Quintin Ice West 3.8 13.2 0.2 1945
San Quintin Ice West 2.6 7.7 0.1 1945
San Quintin Moraine West 23.8 42.8 2.6 1945
3.1. Glacial lake inventory San Quintin Moraine West 7.9 15.7 0.5 1976
San Quintin Moraine West 0.8 4.3 0.0 1976
The total area of the NPI glacial lakes was computed as 167.5 San Quintin Moraine West 0.8 6.0 0.0 1945
8.4 km2 based upon the Landsat ETM+ satellite image of the 19th of San Rafael Ice West 2.1 7.2 0.1 1945
San Rafael Ice West 1.0 4.4 0.0 2001
February 2011 (Table 1). We have mapped a total of 137 calving lakes
Gualas Moraine West 4.2 9.6 0.2 1976
among which the largest ones are the San Quntin and Leones, with Reichert Moraine West 8.0 20.2 0.5 1945
23.8 0.6 km 2 and 19.8 0.4 km 2, respectively. San Rafael Lagoon *** 10.6 126.6 0.1
has not been included since it is connected to sea level and therefore Total 167.5 8.4 10.4
does not contribute to LWS. The majority (69%) of the mapped lakes **Glacial lakes located in basin of minor glaciers without names.
are smaller than 0.5 km2 and their mean area is equivalent to ***Other glacial lakes smaller than 0.5 km2.
38 T. Loriaux, G. Casassa / Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340

Fig. 5. (A) Evolution of the glacial lake population. Blue circles: glacial lake number. Blue squares: area in km2 with error bars calculated according to the text. Green squares: volume in
km3. (B) Behavior of the two types of glacial lakes (moraine-dammed or ice-dammed). (C) Behavior of the glacial lakes depending on their location (west, east). (D) Evolution of several
control lakes located in deglaciated terrain around the NPI. From top to bottom according to 1945: Plomo, Colonia, Bayo, Grosse, Steffen, Reichert.

increasing rate of 0.07 km 2/year, after which a larger increase of
2.6 km 2/year is observed until 2011 (Fig. 5A).
There are differences in the area trends of the two types of glacial
lakes. The ice-dammed lakes experienced a low decrease of their area
during the investigated period, especially between 1945 and 1976,
while the moraine-dammed lakes have drastically enlarged over the
whole period, nearly tripling their initial total area (Fig. 5B).
The volumearea scaling equation [Eq. (1)] allows to derive gla-
cial lake volume from the glacial lake area measurements. A total
water volume of 10.4 km 3 in 2011 is obtained for the glacial lakes
of the NPI (Fig. 5A). This represents an increase of 0.07 km 3/year
since 1947. Following the area trend, the major lake volume en-
largement has occurred between 1987 and 2011 with a rate of
0.22 km 3/year.

Fig. 6. Evolution of the glacial lakes located in the Acodado Glacier basin between 1945 and 1976. A. The lakes in 1945 are represented by a hatched surface on the Lliboutry's map,
and the glacial lakes are delimited by red outlines. B. The glacial lakes are delimited by orange outlines on the 1976 Landsat image. The two lakes on the northern side of Lliboutry's
map, between HPN2 and HPN3, were ice-dammed lakes in 1945, but lost contact with the ice by 1976. As such they are not mapped in our inventory after 1945. On the Landsat 1976
image the rectilineal diagonal streak left of the label Acodado is image noise.
 T. Loriaux, G. Casassa / Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340
4. Discussion
4.1. Glacial lakes enlargement
Although there is a clear increase of the NPI glacial lake size in the
period 19472011, the trend is not constant. The total lake size really
starts to expand after 1987, which is in agreement with the glacier
retreat trend of NPI glaciers during the period 19442005, which
present a stronger recession after the 1990's (Aniya et al., 2007).
The moraine-dammed lakes have experienced a monotonic increase
of their total area (Fig. 5B). These lakes mainly occupy overdeepened
troughs eroded formerly by the glaciers and which are now part of
the deglaciated terrain due to glacier retreat in NPI. This glacier retreat
has been well documented (Aniya et al., 2007; Rivera et al., 2007;
Lpez and Casassa, 2011; Willis et al., 2012).
The ice-dammed lakes present a general reduction of their total area
between 1945 and 1976, and no trend after 1976. We attribute this be-
havior, opposite to the general increasing trend of moraine-dammed
lakes, to the glacier margin retreat at NPI and the associated collapse
of the ice dams due to enhanced glacier melting, which has caused the
lake water to drain rapidly downstream. For example, various large
ice-dammed lakes located near the terminal tongue of Steffen Glacier
(southernmost NPI) have experienced a signicant drainage between
1945 and 1976, as well as lakes dammed by the Acodado (southwestern
NPI) Glacier (Fig. 6).
On the other hand, the lakes which are not physically in contact with
the NPI control lakes as Colonia or Plomo Lakes do not show signi-
cant area changes (Fig. 5D). Some of these control lakes have lost con-
tact with ice during the glacier retreat and since then present a steady
area. The northern part of the former larger Reichert Lake (named
Reichert Lake in Fig. 1) became disconnected from the main water
body between 1945 and 1976. From 1976 to 2011, the size of this new
control lake has remained constant while the moraine-dammed lake
had expended greatly.
Regarding the divergent behavior of the different types of lakes
(moraine-dammed and ice-dammed glacial lakes; and control lakes in
deglaciated terrain), we deduce that the signal of lake increase is not spa-
tially homogeneous but rather restricted to the proglacial lakes directly
in contact with retreating glacier fronts. The few moraine-dammed
lakes which do not follow the general increasing trend are located at
the terminus of glaciers with steady fronts. For example, Len Glacier,
which calves to a moraine-dammed lake on the eastern NPI margin, var-
ied very little from 1945 (Aniya, 2006; Harrison et al., 2008) and its
proglacial lake (Leones Lake) presents a similar steady state.
The lack of a regionally homogeneous signal of lake increase ex-
cludes a direct climatic inuence such as an increase of precipitation
which is not evident for NPI (Aravena and Luckman, 2009) or an in-
crease of liquid precipitation due to warming and associated rise of
the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) (Rasmussen et al., 2007; Rivera et
al., 2007; Barcaza et al., 2009; Koppes et al., 2011).
Conrming our hypothesis described in the introduction, we can
afrm that the size increase of glacial lakes inventoried in this study
(137 lakes in 2011) is mainly inuenced by glacier retreat, which ex-
poses overdeepened troughs eroded formerly by glaciers which have
now retreated. This raises the capacity of meltwater storage of the
periglacial environment.
The close pattern between glacier retreat and glacial lake extent
appears very relevant when we focus on the west/east contrast. The
area shrinkage of the NPI in the 19752001 period is 62% due to the
glaciers located on the western margin (Rivera et al., 2007) where
we register 69% of the total glacial lake area increase (Fig. 5C).
4.2. Lacustrine Water Storage (LWS)
We have used a volumearea scaling [Eq. (1)] to compute the vol-
ume of water stored in the glacial lakes of the NPI at each of the ve
39
Table 4
Compiled data of contribution of NPI glacier shrinkage to sea level rise.
SLR Period Source
(mm/year)
0.0018 0.0004 18702004 Glasser et al. (2011)
0.0089 0.0011 19752000 Rignot et al. (2003)
0.011 19451996 Aniya (1999)
0.013 0.006 19792001 Rivera et al. (2007)
0.009 0.0002 20002011 Willis et al. (2012)
Fig. 7. LWS as a percentage of the mean-value of SLR contribution from NPI meltwater.
LWS is computed to be zero between 1945 and 1976 due to the relatively stable glacial
lake area shown in that time period, when even a slight (non-signicant) lake reduction
is shown (Fig. 5A).
dates between 1945 and 2011. The associated volume variation is at-
tributed to the LWS, according to our hypothesis. We now compare
our results of LWS with the mean SLR obtained by various researchers
between 1945 and 2011 (Table 4).
As seen in Fig. 7, according to the recent acceleration of the enlarge-
ment of moraine-dammed glacial lakes in NPI, the LWS is increasingly
more relevant in the last decade (20012011), reaching up to 10% of
the SLR. Enlarging glacial lakes are able to store more meltwater, and
thus the SLR impact due to glacier melt from NPI could be partially at-
tenuated in the future. The 10% estimation of LWS is probably a lower
bound since there are many cases of lakes which were in contact with
the ice in 1945 and/or 1976 but later lost contact with the ice and
have not yet drained downstream but rather keep storing water.
5. Conclusions
The inventory of glacial lakes at NPI has revealed the lake area
changes occurring in the period between 1945 and 2011. The general
increase of glacial lake area (0.98 km 2/year) exclusively occurs in the
moraine-dammed lakes which are located at the terminus of ice
tongues experiencing important retreat, showing a behavior restrict-
ed to the ice fronts. The size increase of moraine-dammed glacial
lakes is a valid indicator of glacier retreat in the region, and as such
also of regional climate change, and highlights the need to consider
the periglacial environment when estimating the contribution of gla-
cier melt to SLR. The Lacustrine Water Storage (LWS) amounts to
about 10% of the estimated total contribution of NPI to SLR during
the 20012011 decade and shows an increasing trend. This 10% esti-
mation is probably a lower bound considering that existing lakes
which have lost contact with the ice have not been inventoried. The
assessment of LWS should be performed in all relevant glacier areas
in order to compute more exactly the relevance of SLR. We can expect
a similar lock up of glacier meltwater where the proglacial lakes are
growing up, as reported in Himalaya (Bajracharya & Mool, 2008;
Komori, 2008; Tartari & al., 2008; Gardelle et al., 2011; ICIMOD,
2011), in the Alps (Tsutaki & al., 2011) and in Alaska (Boyce et al.,
2007). The case of the Southern Patagonia Iceeld is also interesting,
where the oriental margin is compounded by a greater proportion of
proglacial lakes than the NPI (Warren & Aniya, 1999). The formation
40 T. Loriaux, G. Casassa / Global and Planetary Change 102 (2013) 3340
or enlargement of glacial lakes also highlights the potential hazards
such as GLOFs. Several GLOFs have been recorded in NPI over the
last decades (Dussaillant et al., 2010). Recently there has been a
GLOFs increase due to the recurrent drainage of Cachet II Lake in
the eastern margin of NPI (Casassa et al., 2010).
Acknowledgments
The Centro de Estudios Cientcos (CECs) is funded by the Chilean
Government through the Millennium Science Initiative and the Centers
of Excellence Base Financing Program of Conicyt. CECs is also supported
by a group of private companies which at present includes Antofagasta
Minerals, Arauco, Empresas CMPC, Indura, Naviera Ultragas and
Telefnica del Sur. This work was supported by funding from the ice2sea
program from the European Union 7th Framework Program, grant num-
ber 226375. Ice2sea contribution number 124. The partial support of
FONDECYT Project 1090752 is acknowledged.
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