Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente d 0.94900288
Coeficiente 0.90060647
R^2 ajustado 0.88404088
Error tpico 6.21538031
Observacione 8

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 1 2100.21429 2100.21429 54.3661017 0.00031902
Residuos 6 231.785714 38.6309524
Total 7 2332

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Intercepcin 117.178571 4.84298532 24.1955248 3.2754E-07 105.328213 129.02893 105.328213
PERIODO 7.07142857 0.959054 7.37333722 0.00031902 4.72470797 9.41814918 4.72470797
 Superior 95,0%
129.0289296012
9.418149177
Resumen

Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente d 0.60014523
Coeficiente 0.36017429
R^2 ajustado 0.34684459
Error tpico 11.5765752
Observacione 50

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 1 3621.19954 3621.19954 27.0204305 4.0925E-06
Residuos 48 6432.82046 134.017093
Total 49 10054.02

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Intercepcin 20.1020408 3.32408973 6.04738212 2.1224E-07 13.4185105 26.7855712 13.4185105
Variable X 1 0.58972389 0.1134495 5.19811798 4.0925E-06 0.36161838 0.8178294 0.36161838
Superior 95,0%
26.7855712
0.8178294
PERIODO demanda Lt Tt pronostico ME MSE
1 23 24.625 0.5897238896 20.10204082 2.89795918 8.39816743
2 28 25.49 0.67 25.21 2.78527611 7.75776301
3 16 25.15 0.37 26.17 -10.166534 103.358407
4 22 25.17 0.26 25.52 -3.5181665 12.3774953
5 30 25.89 0.40 25.43 4.57090901 20.8932092
6 31 26.76 0.54 26.29 4.71394967 22.2213215
7 25 27.07 0.47 27.30 -2.2987322 5.28416985
8 22 26.99 0.31 27.54 -5.541184 30.7047197
9 20 26.56 0.09 27.29 -7.293155 53.19011
10 22 26.19 -0.05 26.65 -4.6511343 21.6330503
11 35 27.02 0.21 26.13 8.86621836 78.6098281
12 23 26.81 0.09 27.23 -4.2341508 17.9280329
13 13 25.51 -0.33 26.90 -13.897459 193.139353
14 15 24.16 -0.64 25.18 -10.177512 103.581744
15 29 24.07 -0.47 23.52 5.4757658 29.9840111
16 24 23.64 -0.46 23.60 0.39944256 0.15955436
17 38 24.66 -0.01 23.18 14.8187684 219.595896
18 15 23.68 -0.30 24.65 -9.6484015 93.0916507
19 15 22.54 -0.56 23.38 -8.3794023 70.2143821
20 24 22.19 -0.50 21.99 2.01407909 4.0565146
21 44 23.92 0.17 21.69 22.3077899 497.637492
22 22 23.89 0.11 24.10 -2.097104 4.3978452
23 40 25.60 0.59 24.00 16.0014046 256.044948
24 60 29.57 1.61 26.19 33.8100201 1143.11746
25 18 29.86 1.21 31.18 -13.176526 173.620849
26 39 31.86 1.45 31.07 7.93087744 62.8988169
27 53 35.28 2.04 33.31 19.6896146 387.680923
28 56 39.19 2.60 37.32 18.6817896 349.009263
29 19 39.51 1.92 41.79 -22.785707 519.188425
30 51 42.38 2.20 41.42 9.57711805 91.7211901
31 41 44.23 2.10 44.58 -3.5836533 12.8425712
32 30 44.69 1.61 46.32 -16.320838 266.369752
33 52 46.87 1.78 46.29 5.70532101 32.5506878
34 44 48.18 1.64 48.64 -4.6422956 21.550908
35 51 49.93 1.67 49.82 1.18411841 1.40213641
36 59 52.35 1.90 51.61 7.39236742 54.6470961
37 45 53.32 1.62 54.24 -9.2419795 85.4141848
38 53 54.74 1.56 54.94 -1.9356323 3.74667248
39 37 54.37 0.98 56.30 -19.301851 372.561448
40 56 55.42 1.00 55.35 0.6476079 0.41939599
41 29 53.68 0.18 56.42 -27.417307 751.708746
42 54 53.87 0.18 53.85 0.14678803 0.02154673
43 38 52.44 -0.30 54.05 -16.04993 257.600244
44 29 49.83 -0.99 52.15 -23.145478 535.713142
 45 51 49.05 -0.93 48.84 2.16289327 4.67810729
46 33 46.61 -1.38 48.12 -15.12446 228.749277
47 27 43.41 -1.93 45.23 -18.229343 332.308959
48 65 43.83 -1.22 41.48 23.5231416 553.338189
49 43 42.64 -1.21 42.61 0.39468373 0.15577525
50 48 42.09 -1.01 41.43 6.56723117 43.1285253
51 41.07

ME 1.53 70
MSE 124.89
60
RMSE 11.18
MAE 8.36 50
MPE -0.08
MAPE -0.08 40
MAD 10.45
30

20

10

0
 MAE MPE MAPE ALPHA 0.1
2.89795918 0.12599823 0.12599823 BETA 0.3
2.78527611 0.09947415 0.09947415
10.1665337 -0.6354084 0.63540835 Intercepcin 20.1020408
3.51816647 -0.1599167 0.15991666 PERIODO 0.58972389
4.57090901 0.15236363 0.15236363
4.71394967 0.15206289 0.15206289
2.29873223 -0.0919493 0.09194929
5.54118397 -0.251872 0.251872
7.29315501 -0.3646578 0.36465775
4.6511343 -0.2114152 0.2114152
8.86621836 0.25332052 0.25332052
4.23415079 -0.1840935 0.18409351
13.8974585 -1.0690353 1.06903527
10.1775117 -0.6785008 0.67850078
5.4757658 0.18881951 0.18881951
0.39944256 0.01664344 0.01664344
14.8187684 0.38996759 0.38996759
9.64840146 -0.6432268 0.64322676
8.37940225 -0.5586268 0.55862682
2.01407909 0.08391996 0.08391996
22.3077899 0.50699523 0.50699523
2.097104 -0.0953229 0.09532291
16.0014046 0.40003511 0.40003511
33.8100201 0.56350034 0.56350034
13.1765264 -0.7320292 0.73202925
7.93087744 0.20335583 0.20335583
19.6896146 0.37150216 0.37150216
18.6817896 0.33360339 0.33360339
22.7857066 -1.1992477 1.19924772
9.57711805 0.18778663 0.18778663
3.58365333 -0.0874062 0.08740618
16.320838 -0.5440279 0.54402793
5.70532101 0.10971771 0.10971771
4.64229555 -0.1055067 0.10550672
1.18411841 0.02321801 0.02321801
7.39236742 0.12529436 0.12529436
9.24197949 -0.2053773 0.20537732
1.93563232 -0.0365214 0.03652136
19.3018509 -0.5216716 0.52167165
0.6476079 0.01156443 0.01156443
27.4173074 -0.9454244 0.94542439
0.14678803 0.0027183 0.0027183
16.0499297 -0.4223666 0.42236657
23.1454778 -0.7981199 0.79811992
2.16289327 0.04240967 0.04240967
15.1244596 -0.458317 0.45831696
18.2293433 -0.6751609 0.67516086
23.5231416 0.36189449 0.36189449
0.39468373 0.00917869 0.00917869
6.56723117 0

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