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August 13, 2010

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This week's free download is our report on CONTINUCARE CORP


(CNU). CONTINUCARE CORP provides outpatient and ancillary healthcare services
with a primary focus on outpatient treatment of musculoskeletal injuries and diseases,
such as arthritis, osteoporosis, stroke and traumatic injuries. The Company's services
include physical rehabilitation, physician practice management, home healthcare,
behavioral health management and laboratory services within its physician practices.
ValuEngine has issued a STRONG SELL recommendation for CONTINUCARE
CORP. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we
feel that CONTINUCARE CORP has the probability to UNDERPERFORM average market
performance for the next year. The company exhibits UNATTRACTIVE market
valuation, market/book ratio and expected EPS growth.
CNU ranks at the bottom of our universe is critical data points such as short and
long-term forecast returns and valuation. While Health Care is traditionally a
"defensive" sector, the overall sector is undervalued by 13.5% but this ticker is
overvalued by @300%. This indicates that our Valuation Model can find little
justification for the share price given the underlying fundamental data.
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MARKET OVERVIEW

Index started week Thursday Close 4 day change 4 day change % ytd
DJIA 10654.62 10320 -334.62 -3.14% -1.06%
NASDAQ 2298.81 2190.27 -108.54 -4.72% -4.54%
RUSSELL 2000 654.29 616.98 -37.31 -5.70% -1.77%
S&P 500 1122.8 1083.61 -39.19 -3.49% -2.95%

Summary of VE Stock Universe


Stocks Undervalued 72.21%
Stocks Overvalued 27.79%
Stocks Undervalued by 20% 37.26%
Stocks Overvalued by 20% 8.64%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12- P/E Ratio
MReturn
Basic Industries 0.08% -4.31% 15.73% 7.18% undervalued 28.07% 23.02
Capital Goods -0.52% -6.23% 8.50% 11.02% undervalued 14.62% 20.36
Consumer Durables -0.80% -5.93% 4.76% 15.17% undervalued 30.39% 17.61
Consumer Non-Durables 0.01% -4.02% 0.61% 7.37% undervalued 21.19% 16.5
Consumer Services -0.34% -4.76% 1.02% 15.08% undervalued 14.55% 20.66
Energy -0.23% -4.66% -6.43% 5.88% undervalued 27.52% 24.55
Finance -0.60% -4.07% 7.69% 10.09% undervalued 6.02% 17.61
Health Care 0.18% -2.88% 11.23% 18.10% undervalued 8.42% 19.7
Public Utilities -2.61% -3.40% -4.37% 3.88% undervalued 16.03% 18.41
Technology -1.14% -5.23% 1.80% 17.15% undervalued 22.99% 24.61
Transportation -0.15% -6.27% 2.40% 7.05% undervalued 17.37% 17.86
Industry Talk—Retail Goods
A variety of major retailers reported earnings this week. Those that had good
news often tempered it with reduced guidance for the rest of the year. Many analysts
do not expect the rest of 2010 to bolster evidence of a strong recovery. Below, we
present various top-five lists for the Retail Goods industry from our Institutional software
package (VEI). We filtered the results for liquidity by only including results that had an
average daily volume in excess of 100k shares/day.

Top-Five Retail Goods Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns


Last 12-M
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%)
Retn(%)
PSS COLLECTIVE BRND 14.38 -47.81 -5.83
ARO AEROPOSTALE INC 23.77 -23.65 -1.94
WMT WAL-MART STORES 50.43 -8.32 1.49
CVS CVS CAREMARK CP 28.94 -17.91 -15.82
BONT BON-TON STORES 8.22 -64 97.6

Top-Five Retail Goods Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns


Last 12-M
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%)
Retn(%)
WMT WAL-MART STORES 50.43 -8.32 1.49
TGT TARGET CORP 51.81 -19.22 23.59
CVS CVS CAREMARK CP 28.94 -17.91 -15.82
BBY BEST BUY 33.43 -34.19 -7.06
WAG WALGREEN CO 28.03 -30.44 -9.05

Top-Five Retail Goods Stocks--Composite Score


Last 12-M
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%)
Retn(%)
DDS DILLARDS INC-A 20.91 -41.55 81.98
TLB TALBOTS INC 9.85 -53.6 58.62
BONT BON-TON STORES 8.22 -64 97.6
M MACYS INC 20.25 -28 24.85

RSH RADIOSHACK CORP 19.24 -31.52 27.16


Top-Five Retail Goods Stocks--Most Overvalued
Last 12-M
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%)
Retn(%)
RGS REGIS CORP/MN 17.43 64.97 15.97
NWY NEW YORK & CO 2.15 32.75 -53.06
MOV MOVADO GRP INC 10.83 28.35 -15.65
WMMVY WAL-MART MX-ADR 23.22 25.64 28.08
JOSB JOS A BANK CLTH 58.07 25.17 48.18

VE Premium Website Stock Analysis subscribers can find complete valuation,


forecast, and ratings data on every individual equity in the Retail Goods Industry
HERE.
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--ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard


Suttmeier in the News
Richard Suttmeier is ValuEngine's Chief Market Strategist.
Suttmeier made appearances on several financial media outlets this week
following his appearance at Bloomberg HQ Monday evening. Suttmeier discussed
the crazy market gyrations, the latest from the FOMC, the prospects for deflation vs.
inflation, and his his "Buy and Trade" strategy.

Click the screen captures below to view Suttmeier's appearance on Yahoo's


Tech Ticker, the Canadian Business News Network, and Fox Business Channel's "Bulls
and Bears" program.
Click the Images to Watch the Clips

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the capital markets, ETFs, the Baking System, forex, commodities, and major indices.
We have newsletters relevant to every sort of investor: short or long term, active
traders, ETF traders, and professional investors.
The ValuEngine Morning Briefing brings Richard Suttmeier's expertise right to
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analysis of US Treasury Yields, Gold, Crude Oil, and Currency Exchange Rates--Dollar,
Yen, Pound, and Euro--as well as key technical indicators for the major equity
averages.

If you are interested in ETFs, Suttmeier publishes The ValuEngine Weekly ETF
Report. The ValuEngine Weekly ETF Report provides a variety of technical analysis
data for more than 30 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Want to take advantage of RIchard's stock-picking prowess? Then consider the


ValuTrader Model Portfolio Newsletter. Based on Suttmeier's own proprietary market
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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist
Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com

Treasury Yields

Fed Policy calling for the purchasing of US Treasuries pulls


the yield on the 10-Year note down to 2.681. My annual pivots are
2.999 and 2.813 with daily and weekly pivots at 2.769 and 2.726.
Semiannual and monthly value levels are 3.479 and 3.601 with
quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249.

Commodities and Forex

Comex Gold--($1199.2) Gold continues to waffle around the $1,200 the Troy ounce
level. Weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are $1194.2, $1140.9, $1133.2
and $1115.2 with a daily pivot at $1212.3 and semiannual risky levels at $1218.7 and
$1260.8.

Nymex Crude--($80.15) Crude oil nearly tests my annual pivot at $77.05 after failing to
hold this month’s pivot at $80.02. My annual pivot is $77.05 with monthly pivot at
$80.02, and weekly, daily, and semiannual risky levels at $81.84, $82.61 and $83.94. My
quarterly value level is $56.63.

The Euro--(1.2842) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.2167, 1.1486 and 1.1424
with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3214, 1.3533 and 1.4733. A couple
of weeks ago, I thought that the euro would peak around 1.33-- the high was 1.3334
on August 6th.

Major Indices

The Dow--Daily: (10,379) My annual, weekly and monthly pivots are 10,379, 10,405 and
10,439 with semiannual and daily risky levels at 10,558 and 10,739, and monthly risky
level at 11,045. My quarterly value level is 7,812. My annual risky level at 11,235 was
tested at the April 26th high of 11,258.01.
The Fed

The FOMC statement this week demonstrated the areas of concern for our
central bankers. In general, The pace of the economic recovery and job growth has
slowed in recent months-- as household spending increases gradually but is
constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth,
and tight credit conditions.

• Business spending on equipment and software is rising, but investment in


nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant
to add to payrolls.
• Housing starts remain at a depressed level.
• Bank lending has continued to contract.
• The pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term
than had beenanticipated.
• Inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
• Exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate will be needed for an
extended period.
• QE2 is limited to keeping Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their
current level byreinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The Committee
will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as
they mature.

In my view, managing the Fed’s balance sheet will not encourage a sustained
economic recovery. The Fed’s decision to push the funds rate to zero has failed. I
have always opined that the FOMC took rates too low in 2003 / 2004, which caused
the housing bubble. Then, they took rates too high under those tortuous 17 steps of 25
basis points-- orchestrated by Greenspan and continued by Bernanke.

The economy would be much better off today if low funds rate had been 3%
and the high 5% during the new millennium. A steadier hand on the tiller would have
reduced the rampant speculation in search of yield when the rate was below 3% and
would have reduced the pain cause when rates went above 5%.

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