Pore pressure prediction allows C.W Kuyken, Frank de Lange Shell Petroleum for tighter pressure gradient control Real-time software monitors progress eal time pore pressure prediction soft- ware was introduced for the first time Shel’s Norwegian ding operations in 1996. This rial was followed by the intro- dluction of the program to driling opera- ans in the South China Sea, asa tool to optimize the mud gradient and casing setting depths on high pressure, high temperature (HPHT) exploration wells. Since introduction into the area, the program has been used on several HPHT ‘exploration wells on land, offshore, and on a recent deepwater exploration campaign. Thisarticle describes the successful application con the deepwater exploration well Well1”, where DrillWorks/Predict, a software product from Knowledge Systems, predicted pore pressures in excess of what was originally anticipated in the well drilling program. This prevented the ‘occurrence of atleast one kick and accurately «tablished the maximum safe drilling depth for the well design and pressure rating of the ri’ blowout preventer (BOP) equipment. {mee | int mud and fracture gradient envelopes ind an effective solution for real-time bore pressure prediction and monitoring. Pressure indicators DrillWorks/Predict was first introduced in the company’s drilling operations on a deep onshore HPHT well. The sot ware was successfully inter- faced with realtime logging while drilling (WD) data, but failed to predict the forma- tion pressures encountered, as the geological setting was, dominated by inflationary effects. The standard methods used in the software provide estimates of overpressures developed by under ‘compaction. It was recognized that the ongoing offshore HPHT exploration campaign could benefit from realtime pore pressure data, as these wells were commonly drilled with a very narrow operating envelope between the mud and fracture gradi ents, Better knowledge of the actual pore pres- sure would allow rationalization of mud gradients, optimization of casing setting depths, and early identification of potential formation fluid influxes. ast experience indicated that the caleula- tions required input of good quality offset data direct pressure measurements, and trend! xzas shows and/or kicks. To property calibrate the system and obtain valid results, wireline, LWD, drilling data, and other related information are input and interpreted in either realtime or as available. ‘It became apparent that reabtime pressure ‘monitoring could not be achieved optimally with standalone setup and preference was given to ‘running the system with a dedicated engineer from Geopressure Systems, a division of Knowledge Systems, Confirming prediction ‘The most recent pplication ofthe pore pres: ‘sure prediction software was the exploration well, "Well-1”, drilled from a drillship in a water depth in excess of 450 meters in the South China Sea. The initial pressure prognosis of the objectives was based on seismic velocities, cali- brated to the only available offset well, some 9.5 iam away. This prognosis indicated progressive development of pore pressures of up to 0.80 Wireline sonic measurements were calibrated against direct formation pressure measurements. psi/it with an uncertainty of +/-0.1 psi/St below the 95/8in. casing shoe. ‘BOP equipment was rated to 10,000 with the casing design matching this pres- sure rating. It was imperative that total depth of the well should not exceed the depth at which the pore pressures exceeded the design criteria for the casing and BOP equipment. In view of these tight pressure tolerances, it was decided to use the DrillWorks/Predict tool to predict and ‘monitor realtime pore pressures during driling. ‘The service was used from the 204n. casing shoe set at 1.xxx m to the final TD of the well. Wireline data from the top hole sections was used as a starting point forthe calculations, and al time gamma ray and resistivity data, pro- vided by the LWD, used to update the predic- tions while drilling the 17 1/24in, and 12 1/4in. hole sections. Inthe absence of direct pressure ‘measurements, it was not possible 1 verify the calibration ofthe calculations. The occurrence of two kicks in the 12 1/-+in, hole section indicated ‘that the actual pore pressures exceeded! the real time pore pressure predictions and were also significantly higher than the prognoses. The sec- tion was dried to a depth of 3xacc meters with a final mud gradient of 0.65 psi/ and fll suite of wireline logs was obtained, including measured formation pressures, This enabled full elibra- tion of the calculations and a good data set, in ‘agreement with the measured formation data. The 9 5/8in. casing was set at 3,xxx meters and a shoe strength of 0.84 psi/ft was estab- lished by the leak-off test. The calibrated data sets in DrillWorks/Predict were used for moni- toring pore pressures while drilling the 8 1/24n, Reprinted from the December 1999 edition of OFFSHORE Copyright 1999 by PennWellLLING T sonic, and drilling mechanics data were used to confirm pore pres- sure estimates. hole. Pressure predictions were updated with input from realtime gamma ray and resistivity data from the LWD (with the sensors 3.5 meters and 5.8 meters, respectively, behind the bit). Drilling data such as corrected drilling expo- nent, rotary torque, formation gas, and other ‘parameters were also input 8 available. The soft edictions indicated trends of progres- sively increasing pore pressures in the shale sections drilled. This was confirmed by a kick taken after penetrating a thin isolated sand layer at 3x meters. The influx was circulated out ‘with a mud gradient of0.78 psi/ft. The pressures encountered were in excellent agreement with the predicted data. This event contributed to a high level of confidence in the data and interpre- tation ofthe trends in real time. Pressure predictions Drilling continued and the pore pressure pre- dictions were closely monitored throughout the remaining critical section of the well. The pre- dictions clearly indicated that the pore pres- ‘sures were continuing to increase, and at 3,xxx ‘meters it was decided to increase the mud gra- dient to 0.8 psi/ft before entering one of the well CHNOLOGY objectives. The effective circulating density (ECD) began approaching the leakoff pressure ‘equivalent mud weight, requiring the remain- der of the well to be drilled with reduced cireu- lating parameters within a very narrow and rapidly closing operating window between the for- ‘mation and leakoff pressures. ‘The pore pressure predictions indicated that the objective sands could be penetrated safely ‘and within the limitations of the well design. In addition to this, it provided the well engineers and their customer departments with the most accurate information available at the time of driling, and to justify the decision to perform intermediate wireline logging. ‘logging pocket was drilled toa depth of. meters and a minimum suite of wireline logs was obtained, including direct measurements. Later analysis showed the realtime predicted pore pressures to be in excellent agreement with the ‘measured formation pressures. Extrapolations beyond the current depth of the well (based on available seismic velocities) ‘demonstrated that the safe operating envelope was shrinking. Based on this information, it was decided to call total depth early, and obtain the final suite of wireline logs, leaving some of the deeper secondary objectives of the well undrilled. Time safety ‘The application of DrillWorks/Predict on Well! increased confidence in the software and provided well engineers with a tool to fine-tune ‘mud gradients and define safe drilling depths, by reducing the uncertainties of the expected pore pressure profile during the riling process. ‘The application on Well-l prevented the ‘occurrence of at least one kick, resulting in an estimated time saving of 12-20 hours. Ti gradient envelopes safely have given the operator added insurance on high profile PHT well projects. The use of the pr will therefore be continued on future ration and HPHT wells. Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank Eamonn Doyle of Geopressire Systems for support in the field and contributions to this article.