Está en la página 1de 24

Review of Global Politics

2011No.36 19-42

The Role of Ocean Strategy in Chinas


Global Layout
Wen-Cheng Lin

Professor of Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies
National Sun Yat-Sen University

/ Abstract

Chinas rise recently seems to have become a phenomenon commonly


acknowledged by the international community, yet experts and observers lack
consensus on the question of whether China is a status quo power. Although the
U.S. has expressed its desire for China to become a responsible stakeholder, it
remains reserved on whether China has already taken up such a constructive
role. In the past few years, East Asian countries, especially Japan, Vietnam and
Philippine, feel great pressure from Chinas strong behavior. Media reports
regarding Chinas delimitation of the South China Sea as its core interest and
the PLAs rigid position regarding the Yellow Sea have caused countries in the
region to become more vigilant of China. As East Asian countries become wary
of Beijings national strategy, especially its ocean strategy, countries in the
region seek to bring in U.S. power to balance China. This article aims to
introduce the goal, experience and current status of Chinas development of
ocean strategy and analyze Chinas ocean strategy in a global context. This
article also examines some challenges China would face in developing sea
power.

Keywords: China, Ocean Strategy, Sea Power, Global Layout


2011 10 21

2009 3 8 USNS Impeccable


120 12010 7
1
2
ASEAN Regional Forum, ARF
Hillary Clinton
3 9 2011
7 Bali
4 8 10

2001 911

status quo power

1
Chinese Ships harass US Vessel, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7933171.stm
2

http://www.dwnews.com/big5/news/2010-07-02/56160621.html
3
Ian Storey, Power Play in S. China Sea Stirs up Tension, The Strait Times (Singapore) (July
27, 2010), available at: http//viet-studies.info/kinhte/power_play_in_sea.htm
4
Abdul Khalik and Desy Nurhayati, US-China Tensions Eclipse ARF, The Jakarta Post (July
24, 2011), available at:
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/07/24/us-china-tensions-eclipse-arf.html
22 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

stakeholder


2020
5

5
2007 10 15

http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/104019/104099/6429414.html
6
(2008 )
560-561
2011 10 23

1990 8

21

7
Michael Glosny, Getting Beyond Taiwan? Chinese Foreign Policy and PLA Modernization?
Strategic Forum, No.261 (January 2011), p.3.
8
1997 9 12


http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2003-01/20/content_697189.htm
9
2002 11 18

http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-11/17/content_6973542.htm
24 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

10

David Shambaugh

benign
malign11

hedging

2010

10
Evan Medeiros, Chinas International Behavior (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2009), p.96.
11
David Shambaugh, China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order, International
Security, Vol.29, No.3 (2004/05), p.64-67.
2011 10 25

semi-closed
1.8 500
1.4 12

1405-1433

13

1992 10 12

Robert Ross

1415

12
1998 5 1
13
1405-1433 Louise Levathes,
When China Ruled the Seas: The Treasure Fleet of the Dragon Throne 1405-1433 (Oxford:
Oxford University Press, 1994).
14
Robert Ross, Chinas Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response,
International Security, Vol.34, No.2 (2009), p.46.
15
1949 9 21
(
1994 ) 113-115
26 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

16

17
14 20
/

16
65-66
17
68-71
2011 10 27

15

40 60GDP
9018

80
1949 1978

90%
1993

70

19Strait of Malacca
Malacca dilemma20

18
(2008 ) 386
19
Christopher Pehrson, String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of Chinas Rising Power across
the Asian Littoral (Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania: Strategic Studies Institute, the U.S. Army
War College, 2006), p.6.
20


Christian
Bedford, The View from the West: String of Pearls: Chinas Maritime Strategy in Indias
Backyard, Canadian Naval Review, Vol.4, No.4 (2009), p.37.
28 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

150 600
21sea lines of communication

960
13 0.008
0.3 22

2.19 1.307
23

1050
24

21
Andrew Erickson and Gabriel Collins, Chinas Maritime Evolution: Military and
Commercial Factors, Pacific Focus, Vol.22, No.2 (2007), p.51.
22
1
23
(2009 ) 65
24
Michael Studeman, Calculating Chinas Advances in the South China Sea:
Identifying the Triggers of Expansionism, Naval War College Review, Vol.51, No.2 (1998),
p.78.
2011 10 29

Jamestown Foundation
China Brief25

1982

1992
26

2010
2010-25 blue-water
navy
2025-49
27

25
James Holmes, Chinas Maritime Strategy Is More than Naval Strategy, China Brief, Vol.11,
No.6 (2011), pp.10-13.
26
1992 10 12

http://news.xinhuanet.com/zilaio/2003-01/20/content_697148.htm
27

30 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011


1989

75 60 55
85 28
29
30 4 Sovremmenyy-class
12
Kilo-class 65,000
Varyag
2012

(Ogasawa-gunto Islands) (Mariana


Islands)(the Carolines)
W. Lawrence and S. Prabhakar, Chinas Out of the Area Naval Deployments: Issues and
Implications for India, Indian Institute of Technology Madras China Studies Centre Article
No.1 (July 28, 2011), p.1.
28
Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the
Peoples Republic of China 2011, Annual Report to Congress, p.3.
29
4 1990
(052 )2 (051B )1 I (052B )2
II (052C )3 (051C )2 13
(051 )
28 (053
) 1991 4 I (053H2G )10 II
(053H3 )2 I (054 ) 8 II (054A )
(Janes Fighting Ships 2011-2012) 2012-2013 4
II (054A ) Ibid., p.4 Donald ORourke, China Naval Modernization:
Implications for U.S. Navy CapabilitiesBackground and Issues for Congress, CRS Report
for Congress (August 26, 2011), pp.18-31; Steven Horrell, Chinas Maritime Strategy:
Peaceful Rise? (Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania: U.S. Army War College, 2008), p.19.
30
(1)(094 )
12 7,400 (2)(093 )
(3)(039A )(4) 5 095 (5)13
(039 )(6)12
Office of the Secretary of Defense, op. cit., pp.3-4ORourke, op. cit.,
pp.14-20.
2011 10 31

2015-2020
31

2002 5
132 3.3

French Polynesia32
33
string of
pearls34

31
ORourke, op. cit., p.20.
32
Christopher Yung et al., Chinas Out of Area Naval Operations: Case Studies, Trajectories,
Obstacles, and Potential Solutions (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press,
2010), pp.15-19.
33
2004 11 2006 10
26 (Kitty Hawk)
2008 12

2011 11 (Gulf of Aden)
9 2010 3 (the Persian Gulf)
7 8
4
2 3 2 10
(Miyako Strait)2011 2 3
(the Suez Canal)2011
6 8-10
ORourke, op. cit., pp.38-40
34
(Booz Allen Hamilton)
2005 (Department of Defense)(Office of Net Assessment)

(the Arabian Sea)(the Persian Gulf)

(Great Coco)
Y. J. Sithara and N. Fernando,
Chinas Maritime Relations with South Asia: From Confrontation to Co-operation (Part
32 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

Gwadar
Hambantota
Chittagong

2005 Maldives
35

1998 maritime

confidence building measures
Agreement on Establishing a Consultation Mechanism to

Strengthen Military Marine Safety

Military Maritime Consultative Agreement, MMCA

Rim of the Pacific, RIMPAC

36

One), Strategic Analysis Paper (November 24, 2010), p.3; U.S. Presses China on Armed
Submarine Encounter, The Washington Times (January 10, 2007); Chinese Sub Pops up
Undetected Near U.S.S. Kitty Hawk During Exercise,
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1924031/posts
35
ORourke, op. cit., p.38.
36

2001-2003(
) 67-96
2011 10 33

10
2
Karachi37

2003 11
Gulf of Thailand 200
Kra Isthmus
38
Rouge
States

2001
2002

Treaty of Amity and Cooperation

37
Pehrson, op. cit., p.4.
38
Ibid.
34 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

the
Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery
against Ships in Asia, ReCAAP International
Maritime Organizationthe
Cooperative Mechanism for the Malacca and Singapore Straits
39

1991 1

1990 1995 5
1996
1998 40

411964 7 22
The

39
Chris Rahman, Chinas Maritime Strategic Agenda, Policy Analysis (April 28, 2010), p.2.
40




41
468
2011 10 35

State Oceanographic Administration

42


regimes
1996 5
15
1992 2
25
1998 6
26

12 24
200 200

42
469-471
36 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

2010
4343

GDP 2007
3151 2.5
GDP 1044 1979 266 45

2011

1998

43
Dean Cheng, Sea Power and the Chinese State: Chinas Maritime Ambitions, Backgrounder
No.2576 (July 11, 2011), p.3.
44
2007 398
45
http://env.people.com.cn/GB/146189/162842/9675029.html
2011 10 37

46

47

freedom of navigation

48

49

46
425
47
David Griffiths, U.S.-China Maritime Confidence Building: Paradigms, Precedents, and
Prospects, China Maritimes Study No.6 (July 2010), p.4.
48
425-430 () 317-331
49


2003 8
(Royal Dutch/Shell Group)(Unico Oil) 5
()
38 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

2005 2
2+2

50

1962

strategic encirclement
51
2008 2
14

27

50
(2009 ) 426-431
51
S. Hoffman, Perception and China Policy in India, in Francine Frankel and Harry Harding
eds., The India-China Relationship: Rivalry and Engagement (New Delhi: Oxford University
Press, 2004), p.51; C. Arasakumar, Maritime CooperationMantra for Security of the Indian
Ocean, Journal of Indian Ocean Studies, Vol.14, No.1 (2006), pp.61-62.
2011 10 39

Japan-India
Strategic and Global Partnership52
2007

53

2010 7

54

52
Shalendra Sharma, China and India in the Age of Globalization (New York: Cambridge
University Press, 2009), p.179.
53
329-330
54

http://www2.ouc.cn/xyh/detail.asp?cat=A0010&id=450
40 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

1999
55
balkanization
56

HP1500-2 52 2
1002 1003

2000
1000

6000-8000
China Maritime Surveillance

57

55
1999 11 24
304 22
Lyle Goldstein, Five
Dragons Stirring Up the Sea: Challenge and Opportunities in Chinas Improving Maritime
Enforcement Capabilities, China Maritimes Study No.5 (2010), pp.12-13;
1999.11 http://www.sinic.net.cn/news_show.php?id=8672
56
Goldstein, op. cit., pp.26-27.
57
Ibid., pp.5-21.
2011 10 41

1840

Alfred Mahan

Naval
War CollegeChina Maritime Studies Institute

42 Review of Global Politics, No.36, October 2011

Lyle Goldstein


---
58

58
Ibid., p.24.

También podría gustarte